Returning Experience Metric Analysis

[BRHogfan]

Arkansas ranks 73rd on returning starters experience from Bill Connelly on SBNation

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/2/5/10921918/2016-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford

Last season we returned 81% of offensive production and 56% on defense.  We probably lost more of that 81% due to early season injuries.

This season Arkansas returns 37% of offensive production (loss of top QB, RB, TE, and some Oline starters) and 89% of defensive production (this is 2nd in the nation behind Rutgers)

The big comment coming out of this is that an underachieving LSU team from last season returns a lot of experience, but for me personally, I would rather start with a brand new quarterback than have Brandon Harris in many ways. 

The important thing to note in all this is that it isn't saying that Arkansas is going to be 63% worse on production, it's just an effort by Bill (who I think does a great job at predicting on the field performance during the offseason) to correlate returning production and the affect on points per game.

[Biggus Piggus]

This concept misses something like the return of a senior wide receiver who missed almost the whole season because of an injury. Or that another receiver's production was hampered because he broke his arm in half and missed a few snaps. Or the injuries of running backs, etc.

[BRHogfan]

This concept misses something like the return of a senior wide receiver who missed almost the whole season because of an injury. Or that another receiver's production was hampered because he broke his arm in half and missed a few snaps. Or the injuries of running backs, etc.

True, and if you go through the article, there are a lot of complaints from Michigan fans, because the initial analysis didn't understand how their depth chart works.

If I were going to accurately do this for Arkansas, I would probably extrapolate per game stats for the expected key contributors for 2016, and while that would make our offense look better with guys like Jared Cornelius, Keon Hatcher, Raleigh Williams III, and Kody Walker, it would probably still accurately predict a likely drop off in ppg due to the losses of BA, AC, and HH. 

[Biggus Piggus]

If you don't replace your best talent, you will have a dropoff. No doubt about that.

[ShadowHawg]

The losses on the line are a much bigger deal than any skill positions. Takes a while for unit to gel regardless of individual talent levels of the players. I believe we have the talent on the line, but it will take time for them to learn to work together.

[BRHogfan]

The losses on the line are a much bigger deal than any skill positions. Takes a while for unit to gel regardless of individual talent levels of the players. I believe we have the talent on the line, but it will take time for them to learn to work together.

We lost one player off the line from last year, and look how long it took them to gel in the run game.

I will say the pass protection was very exceptional this year, so hopefully the things that they've implemented will carry on. 

[DeltaBoy]

I expect us to win 8 or 9 with a bowl win.

[BRHogfan]

I expect us to win 8 or 9 with a bowl win.

Do you agree with the estimate on here, that we score a little bit less, but we hold opponents to 3-4 less ppg?

[jgphillips3]

Interesting.  There is little chance our offense will be as good without BA, AC & HH plus the linemen, but I think our defense will be improved considerably.  If the new QB can just produce, I don't think he will have to be as good as BA was at the end of the year for us to win.