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Author Topic: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series  (Read 1877 times)

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ucahogfan

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Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« on: March 19, 2017, 08:29:38 pm »

So, it was a great weekend for Hog baseball sweeping the Bulldogs.  I had several take aways which we did not see with this team last year.

-  It is always a great weekend when the team has more HRs (5) than BBs issued (4).  Our top two of Knight and Stephan are as good as you will find in the nation and Alberius is a RS Senior with plenty of experience.  I could spend all night talking up the job our pitching staff did this weekend, but I'll focus mainly on the offense.

-  Speaking of the pop, is this the most raw power we have seen on a DVH coached team?  We have hit 30 HRs through 21 games and are on pace to hit 80 through a 56 game regular season.  It is not like we have one guy who is lapping the pack like Benintendi was two years ago, but there are about 7 guys who can go deep at any time and all of them were in the lineup today.  Koch, Fletcher, Shaddy, and Bonfield are all on pace to hit 10+ HRs this year and I think Spanberger joins them as well.  Arledge is on pace for 8-10 HRs and depending on how many ABs McFarland gets, he could be a 6-8 HR type guy.

-  On to Spanberger, he seems to finally be figuring out and is turning out to be a solid 2 hole hitter for us.  Don't be fooled by the .203 average on the season, he swung the bat well this weekend.  When Arledge had gotten to 2B both Saturday and Sunday with 0 outs in the 1st, Spanberger made contact and moved him to 3B   He also put the ball in play with the bases loaded and 0 outs this afternoon.  For a guy who has struck out a lot in his career, that is promising to see.  While he only hit 1 HR on the weekend, he also hit a couple of long bombs foul which makes me think he is seeing the ball well now.

-  Biggers is a monster defensively at SS.  He made a couple of plays this weekend which just validate why DVH has talked so highly of him.  If he can keep hitting .280+ and get on base at over a .400 clip (He leads the team in walks right now), he is a big time factor on this team.  While it sucked to not make the tourney last year, we probably don't get Biggers if we do.  Would be interesting to see how our SS would have been without him.

-  While Shaddy is a huge defensive liability, he is a big time player for this offense.  All he does is hit line drives.

-  How about Jake Arledge?  Who would have thought a 5-8 OF from Huntington Beach, CA and was a late signee in 2015 would have turned out to be such a big player for us?  He is continuing his huge summer from Cali and is the perfect leadoff hitter for this team.  I would like to see DVH turn him loose on the base paths more, but with the 5 guys behind him all having big time power, I can understand why DVH does not want to risk losing him on the bases.

-  I like McFarland's potential at the plate and think he should be in the everyday lineup.  For a big guy with big time power, he does a good job of using the whole field and his speed is not a liability.  Might be best to DH him when Gates returns.

-  Speaking of Gates, sounds like he could be back on Wednesday and should see action at Missouri next weekend.  If I remember correctly, DVH had talked about him hitting like 5th in the lineup before the injury.  If so, here is the lineup I would like to see on Wednesday to prepare us for next weekend:

1.  Arledge - RF
2.  Spanberger - 1B
3.  Bonfield - LF
4.  Koch - C
5.  Gates - 3B
6.  Shaddy - 2B
7.  Fletcher - CF
8.  McFarland - DH
9.  Biggers - SS

That looks to be the deepest lineup we have ever seen under DVH.  There are no breaks in there.

Overall, I really like this team.  Our pitching is much better and attacks the zone, but also generates a lot of swings and misses.  While our offense might not be a .300 overall hitting team, the power is elite and there are no breaks in the lineup which makes it very challenging on opposing pitchers.  Will be interesting to see how we do as the season continues to warm up.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 08:45:21 pm »

Very good analysis....

And so good to have you back. Always enjoy your stuff.
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ricepig

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 08:52:40 pm »

Any chance we can get Biggers to play right behind second base and cover from side to side???

I was worried about our pitching, especially after losing Campbell and McKinney, but I feel confident that on Friday and Saturday night's, we'll get 6 quality innings out of Knight and Stephan. It may not be shut out ball, but we'll be in the game.

As far as Arledge, he's just a dirtbag, a guy that's going to stay after you until the end. I've been pleasantly surprised with his glove and arm.
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ucahogfan

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 08:56:50 pm »

Any chance we can get Biggers to play right behind second base and cover from side to side???

I was worried about our pitching, especially after losing Campbell and McKinney, but I feel confident that on Friday and Saturday night's, we'll get 6 quality innings out of Knight and Stephan. It may not be shut out ball, but we'll be in the game.

As far as Arledge, he's just a dirtbag, a guy that's going to stay after you until the end. I've been pleasantly surprised with his glove and arm.
I don't think Biggers quite has Andrelton Simmons range, but he can cover some ground out there.

Same here.  If we can get 7-8 every weekend from Knight and Stephan, we will be in great shape heading into Sunday.  This weekend is the perfect example of that.

Yeah, you also have to be surprised by his pop.  For a 5-8 guy, he has a stout build so he generates plenty of power.
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bulldog04

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 09:01:05 pm »

Arkansas hasn't had a lot of prototypical leadoff hitters lately but Arledge fits that mold.  I wish Shaddy was in the two hole
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kennymayne

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2017, 08:17:47 am »

How did Spanberger do at 3rd? Just curious to see if he can play that position well. Would give us lots of flexibility in the lineup.
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Knot2brite

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2017, 09:18:58 am »

I will be very interested to see how we perform in the road next week...we play very wel at Baum ...mizzou will be a big challenge...I am not as worried about our starting pitching as I am our hitting on the road against good pitching. Friday night will be a major league duel.
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ricepig

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2017, 09:44:16 am »

I will be very interested to see how we perform in the road next week...we play very wel at Baum ...mizzou will be a big challenge...I am not as worried about our starting pitching as I am our hitting on the road against good pitching. Friday night will be a major league duel.

Moo St's Friday night guy is suppose to be a top 10 type pick in 2018?? We managed enough off of him, hopefully, we can on the road.
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Maddhog

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2017, 09:46:43 am »

I really like when you do this, UCA.  Great analysis.

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PintailKiller

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2017, 10:41:40 am »

Excellent breakdown UCA.
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21chill

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2017, 12:54:12 pm »

Great analysis. I enjoy reading your stuff
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Wardhog85

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2017, 12:55:58 pm »

The biggest difference in this team is the one two punch we have with Knight and Stephen. Last year we what, one,maybe two guys consistently hitting 90? The fact that we send out a guy Friday and Saturday that consistently stays at 94-95 with the ability to run it up to 97 or 98 is huge. I'd put our one two punch up against anybody in the country.
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dotnet

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2017, 01:06:36 pm »

-  On to Spanberger, he seems to finally be figuring out and is turning out to be a solid 2 hole hitter for us.  Don't be fooled by the .203 average on the season, he swung the bat well this weekend.  When Arledge had gotten to 2B both Saturday and Sunday with 0 outs in the 1st, Spanberger made contact and moved him to 3B   He also put the ball in play with the bases loaded and 0 outs this afternoon.  For a guy who has struck out a lot in his career, that is promising to see.  While he only hit 1 HR on the weekend, he also hit a couple of long bombs foul which makes me think he is seeing the ball well now.


1.  Arledge - RF
2.  Spanberger - 1B
3.  Bonfield - LF
4.  Koch - C
5.  Gates - 3B
6.  Shaddy - 2B
7.  Fletcher - CF
8.  McFarland - DH
9.  Biggers - SS



I hope you are right about him, but I have 2.5 years of evidence to say Spanberger is going to really struggle to hit SEC pitching.  I give you an E for effort, but you can't really make a valid case for him being in the two hole to me.  The fact that he had a productive out or hit a ball off the end of the bat to the warning track is great... but its nothing that Hunter Wilson couldn't do. 

I get why he bats him second, to lengthen the lineup and get some pop up there. But McFarland has been better by every measure (including zero errors compared to four) and at some point you're just giving up extra outs. 

If gates is as good as advertised, I think you continue to put Fletcher in the five hole, bat Gates 6th and put shaddy in the 2 hole.  You have to get your best hitter as many PAs as possible. 

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gchamblee

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2017, 01:50:07 pm »

I, against the wishes of my girlfriend, had my smartphone laying against my speedometer with the game streaming many times this weekend. I couldn't stop watching how much we seem to be improved. I am excited to see how this year plays out.
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Arch Hog

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2017, 02:45:57 pm »

After watching all three games this weekend I concur with ucahogfan's assessment.  You can nitpick as to whether Span has turned the corner and will make enough contact to hit 2 hole all year but I too, was encouraged about his AB's.  I love the fact that we have depth and I love the fact that the players who I saw play this weekend never seemed overwhelmed.  Evan Lee comes in to pitch in a tough spot and the moment does not seem to big for him.  Jax makes play after play and never seems to be intimidated.  We had three freshmen in the lineup at one time Sunday and they just looked natural.  I have been a season ticket holder since 2004 and I think this team has a chance to be as good as any I have watched.  We have plenty of arms though I would feel better if we still had Campbell and McKinney, but again the moment never got too big for anybody.  I believe.  GHG.
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Sho Nuff

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2017, 05:01:00 pm »

I, against the wishes of my girlfriend, had my smartphone laying against my speedometer with the game streaming many times this weekend. I couldn't stop watching how much we seem to be improved. I am excited to see how this year plays out.
As a fellow driver and Hog fan, please don't do this.
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bulldog04

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2017, 05:34:47 pm »

I hope you are right about him, but I have 2.5 years of evidence to say Spanberger is going to really struggle to hit SEC pitching.  I give you an E for effort, but you can't really make a valid case for him being in the two hole to me.  The fact that he had a productive out or hit a ball off the end of the bat to the warning track is great... but its nothing that Hunter Wilson couldn't do. 

I get why he bats him second, to lengthen the lineup and get some pop up there. But McFarland has been better by every measure (including zero errors compared to four) and at some point you're just giving up extra outs. 

If gates is as good as advertised, I think you continue to put Fletcher in the five hole, bat Gates 6th and put shaddy in the 2 hole.  You have to get your best hitter as many PAs as possible.
This is why I would have Shaddy in two hole like I stated earlier.  Also he can do many different things offensively.  Gates might also be someone that can bat in the two hole but not Spanberger
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gchamblee

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2017, 07:44:35 pm »

As a fellow driver and Hog fan, please don't do this.

you're safe, its a radio while i drive and a tv at red lights :P
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ucahogfan

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2017, 09:42:14 pm »

This is why I would have Shaddy in two hole like I stated earlier.  Also he can do many different things offensively.  Gates might also be someone that can bat in the two hole but not Spanberger
A lot of it depends on where a hitter feels most comfortable.  Maybe Shaddy is much more comfortable hitting in the 5-6 hole than the 2 hole and having someone behind Bonfield/Koch like Shaddy will not only protect them from pitchers pitching around them, but he will also drive them in when given the chance.

I just think Spanberger might have figured something out here in the last week or so and will prove to be an effective 2 hole hitter the rest of the year.  He is at his best against fastballs (as well as just about everyone else on this team), but he has struggled big time in the past against breaking balls.  With Arledge getting on base at close to or over a .500 clip as the leadoff hitter, Spanberger is going to see a lot of fastballs with Arledge's threat on the bases.

Maybe Gates could be a 2 hole hitter too, but I prefer an elite hitter in the 5/6 hole like Shaddy.  Otherwise, you end up with a lineup like Mississippi State (albeit with injuries) where the top 3-4 are great, but the rest of the lineup does not put up any sort of fight.
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dotnet

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2017, 10:42:54 pm »


I just think Spanberger might have figured something out here in the last week or so and will prove to be an effective 2 hole hitter the rest of the year.  He is at his best against fastballs (as well as just about everyone else on this team), but he has struggled big time in the past against breaking balls.  With Arledge getting on base at close to or over a .500 clip as the leadoff hitter, Spanberger is going to see a lot of fastballs with Arledge's threat on the bases.


So this is an actual theory that makes more sense than the "shaddy is emotionally fragile and can't hit higher in the order than 5/6". 

I deleted everything else because there is no need to pile on Spanberger who isn't having the year he wanted.  I think we all hope he turns the corner and can hit 260-270 with some long balls.

I'll just say that if Gates is as good as advertised, I think having something like:

Arledge
Shaddy
Bonfield
Koch
Fletcher
Gates
McFarland
Spanberger/Cole/Lee/Burch/Williams
Biggers

Is a more efficient lineup than anything else and still gives the lineup depth.  You could flip flop McFarland and Spanberger to get a L/R/L/R thing going
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dotnet

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2017, 10:46:25 pm »

Oh, and if you think about how AB, BA, and bonfield hit as freshman vs what they did as sophmores and juniors.... I think watching Biggers (1st year), McFarland, Fletcher, and Lee is really impressive. 

Between those guys, Koch, Knight, Cronin, Murphy, etc.  it looks like this team is finally set for a while. 
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Kevin

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2017, 08:14:56 am »

shaddy needs to dh
find a second baseman
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ThisTeetsTaken

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2017, 08:29:14 am »

shaddy needs to dh
find a second baseman
I think Williams is the answer at 2nd.   
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JonClaudeVanHam

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2017, 10:42:25 am »

shaddy needs to dh
find a second baseman

Yep. Shaddy to DH, Williams to 2B. It's so obvious.
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Kevin

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2017, 10:53:05 am »

Yep. Shaddy to DH, Williams to 2B. It's so obvious.

it all depends on how stubborn dvh will be
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dotnet

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #25 on: March 21, 2017, 10:54:43 am »

Yep. Shaddy to DH, Williams to 2B. It's so obvious.

Every year we have guys hit 350 in OOC and then can't sniff sec pitching. If dvh says a guy hitting 280 in OOC isn't ready, then I believe him.
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Kevin

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2017, 10:56:35 am »

Every year we have guys hit 350 in OOC and then can't sniff sec pitching. If dvh says a guy hitting 280 in OOC isn't ready, then I believe him.

his glove is what is the difference

nobody is arguing the hitting between the two

not sure shaddy's glove is sec quality
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tusked

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2017, 11:16:06 am »


This weekend was my first game to see live this year.

I am shocked by how good this team is.  I was sitting there thinking, this team is as good as 15 team or at least deeper and the pitching was as good as I've seen in a long time.

It could have been the beverages before the game but I came away very very impressed.
 
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Sho Nuff

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2017, 11:42:01 am »

you're safe, its a radio while i drive and a tv at red lights :P
Ok, I feel better now ;D
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jbell96

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #29 on: March 21, 2017, 12:43:14 pm »

Yep. Shaddy to DH, Williams to 2B. It's so obvious.

Take away Shaddy's 8 errors on defense, which ties him for the most in the SEC with Robbie Glendinning of Mizzou, our fielding percentage goes from 5th in the SEC to 1st. Williams' bat has cooled a bit, but we don't need him to hit .300 or .350 from the 8 or 9 hole.

Our best lineup to maximize our offensive & defensive talent would be:

RF Arledge
1B McFarland/Spanberger (Depending on the match up)
LF Bonfield
C Koch
CF Fletcher
DH Shaddy
3B Gates
SS Biggers
2B Williams
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dotnet

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2017, 05:18:09 pm »

his glove is what is the difference

nobody is arguing the hitting between the two

not sure shaddy's glove is sec quality

Okay, but if you put in Williams then you have to take out someone that can hit better.   You have to evaluate how much you're losing at the plate vs how much you're gaining with the glove. 

Its a small sample size, but Williams has the worst fielding percentage on the team (besides Shaddy).  It isn't like you're replacing him with Ozzie Smith out there. 

I'm not saying that evaluation doesn't result in Williams playing more.  I am saying that it isn't completely obvious that it is the answer.  Especially when Shaddy is learning on the job and hopefully getting better every game. 

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ucahogfan

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #31 on: March 21, 2017, 08:54:23 pm »

Okay, but if you put in Williams then you have to take out someone that can hit better.   You have to evaluate how much you're losing at the plate vs how much you're gaining with the glove. 

Its a small sample size, but Williams has the worst fielding percentage on the team (besides Shaddy).  It isn't like you're replacing him with Ozzie Smith out there. 

I'm not saying that evaluation doesn't result in Williams playing more.  I am saying that it isn't completely obvious that it is the answer.  Especially when Shaddy is learning on the job and hopefully getting better every game.
Completely agree with this right now.  While Shaddy is a huge defensive liability, is the trade off of moving him to DH and losing a bat like Spanberger/McFarland/Lee in the lineup worth the addition of Williams' defense?

While I think Williams has a bright future here and will be a stud, DVH does not think he is just quite ready to hit SEC pitching yet.  Might be best to get him some midweek action and then get him off to a good summer league this year.
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ucahogfan

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #32 on: March 21, 2017, 09:00:12 pm »

So this is an actual theory that makes more sense than the "shaddy is emotionally fragile and can't hit higher in the order than 5/6". 

I deleted everything else because there is no need to pile on Spanberger who isn't having the year he wanted.  I think we all hope he turns the corner and can hit 260-270 with some long balls.

I'll just say that if Gates is as good as advertised, I think having something like:

Arledge
Shaddy
Bonfield
Koch
Fletcher
Gates
McFarland
Spanberger/Cole/Lee/Burch/Williams
Biggers

Is a more efficient lineup than anything else and still gives the lineup depth.  You could flip flop McFarland and Spanberger to get a L/R/L/R thing going
I still think it is better to have Spanberger / Gates in the 2 hole and Shaddy in the 6 hole moreso we don't have a huge group of RHHs together like we would with Arledge / Shaddy / Bonfield / Koch in your lineup.  While Shaddy is one of our top 2-3 hitters, it is best for this team to have him in the 5 hole so we have an elite hitter who can do some damage behind Bonfield / Koch and drive them in once they get on base.  It also might help prevent a team from just using one reliever and have to match up depending on the handedness of the hitter.
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Jackrabbit Hog

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Re: Take Aways from the Mississippi State Series
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2017, 03:31:11 pm »

I'd be surprised if Biggers makes more than 10-12 errors all season.
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