Shorting Trump

[jkstock04]

I am predicting, like most folks around Hogville. As for facts, they don't seem to count for much anymore. ;-)

So much for the easy money in the OP. I love watching your spin and rhetoric go down in a ball of flames.

[Vantage 8 dude]

These days.... facts are always getting in the way of progress

Is that akin to the old saying of "Don't confuse me with facts; my mind's made up"? Sounds as if it certainly could be. 

[HotlantaHog]

Worst performing stock groups YTD: oil and gas, department stores, auto retailers, oil and gas equipment, oil and gas exploration, general merchandise stores ....

No position in any, though intrigued by energy longer term ...

[Vantage 8 dude]

Worst performing stock groups YTD: oil and gas, department stores, auto retailers, oil and gas equipment, oil and gas exploration, general merchandise stores ....

No position in any, though intrigued by energy longer term ...

I think if one can truly think long term (and I mean longer than 12 months out) the energy area is intriguing. Having been around the investment business for forty years I totally understand it's human nature to want to follow the crowd and realize the quick gains. Heck, who doesn't like seeing their investments go up double digits or more in a relatively short time. However, the idea of "buying low, selling high" is generally based on the idea that you buy when stocks or sectors go on sale; you sell when everyone begins piling into a particular sector or group.

No doubt energy prices are under pressure and will likely remain so for a while. The U.S. frackers have really set OPEC on its collective rears and the supply of oil will likely be elevated for some time. However, OVER TIME the overall usage of energy on a world wide basis will eventually even out and even outstrip new supplies. It will take a while so if one wants to invest in this sector I would personally advise looking for companies with solid balance sheets (low debt, solid real cash flow) and preferably those who may pay a decent dividend while your waiting-get paid for your patience. Some of the pipeline companies such as EPD, MMP or others might be a decent place to start.

As far as some of the retailers:IMO very much of a "mixed bag". Much of the question here is do they have a business model that can either withstand the likes of AMZN or are they developing a way of doing business online that can add value to any of their physical store locations. Some like WMT, HD and LOW have some of both. The former seems to have finally begun figuring a way to effectively compete with onliners. In the case of HD and LOWs much of their merchandise is a "got to have it now" or "I want to actually be able to see/touch it before I buy" type of product. Tough for many on line offerings to match that.