Hogs -20.5 against LTU

[ricepig]

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/vegas-insider-lists-opening-game-lines-week-1-games/

[bigdaddyhawg]

In before:

"Take the under" -- HogimusMaximus

[Hawgar The Horrible]

Too generous. It's a trap!

[VirginiaHog]

Too generous. It's a trap!

Nope. 45-10. Woo pig!

[nwahogfan1]

All Vegas wants is for equal money on both sides but I think it is way too generous myself.   If I did bet on College sports I would put my Dollar on LTU and take the points.  We have a QB with NO starting experience. No starting experience at RB.  We lost 3 OLM and the ones that played in the Red White game did not protect AA very well or open up many holes against the 2nd and 3rd teams either.   Coaches are still searching for right fit on the OL so how can you have a whole lot of confidence at this point on our Offense that we will run away from any one much less a pretty darn good team like LTU.   I would rate them every bit as high as Toledo and we all remember that game.

Right now with the info I have I say Arkansas by a less than 10.

[ricepig]

In before:

"Take the under" -- HogimusMaximus

Alter ego??

All Vegas wants is for equal money on both sides but I think it is way too generous myself.   If I did bet on College sports I would put my Dollar on LTU and take the points.  We have a QB with NO starting experience. No starting experience at RB.  We lost 3 OLM and the ones that played in the Red White game did not protect AA very well or open up many holes against the 2nd and 3rd teams either.   Coaches are still searching for right fit on the OL so how can you have a whole lot of confidence at this point on our Offense that we will run away from any one much less a pretty darn good team like LTU.   I would rate them every bit as high as Toledo and we all remember that game.

Right now with the info I have I say Arkansas by a less than 10.

[ricepig]

Considering your betting strategy this early Ricepig?  Wow!

It's never too early to lock in a profit!

[Bacon_Bitz]

I read this on a La Tech message board:

All Vegas wants is for equal money on both sides but I think it is way too generous myself.   If I did bet on College sports I would put my Dollar on the Hogs and take the points.  We have a QB with NO starting experience. No starting experience at RB.  We lost 3 OLM and did we even have a spring game and our line wasn't very good even with Dixon last year.   Coaches are still searching for right fit on the OL so how can you have a whole lot of confidence at this point on our Offense that we will run away from any one much less a pretty darn good team like Arkansas.   I would rate them every bit as high as Western Kentucky, Kansas State, Mississippi State, and Southern Miss, and we all remember those games.

Right now with the info I have I say Arkansas by at least 21.

LaTech might be alrite but they have just as many issues with filling holes and replacing lost production as Arkansas or most any other college football team.  There are a few teams that return almost everything (LSU) or almost nothing, but Arkansas has the same general problems with needing a few players to step up as most every other team. 

Replacing a QB is a heightened concern but I don't think it'll be as bad as most think, because even though AA does not have much in-game experience, there is a huge difference between relying on a true frosh (even a 5 star true frosh) to come in and start vs. a redshirt JR with years in the system.

[yraciv]

La Tech lost everything.  Think they have something like 5 starters back on offense and 3 on defense.  They have more holes than us and are less talented than us. Combo with a road game, seems about right.

[SemperHawg]

La Tech lost everything.  Think they have something like 5 starters back on offense and 3 on defense.  They have more holes than us and are less talented than us. Combo with a road game, seems about right.

I'll take your word for it as I am not as familiar with La Tech. 

I really hate the spot for us.  Breaking in a lot of new Olinemen and a new QB.  If memory serves they run some of that spread attack read option that seems to be problematic for us at times.  Its also the week before we go play at TCU.  I don't think we lose or anything but that 22 to I am seeing seems like a big number to cover for a team that in all likely hood will be working out some kinks the week before a big time road tilt with TCU.

[longpig]

In before:

"No brainer, take the under" -- HogimusMaximus

*fixed*

[Darren DeLoach]

All Vegas wants is for equal money on both sides but I think it is way too generous myself.   If I did bet on College sports I would put my Dollar on LTU and take the points.  We have a QB with NO starting experience. No starting experience at RB.  We lost 3 OLM and the ones that played in the Red White game did not protect AA very well or open up many holes against the 2nd and 3rd teams either.   Coaches are still searching for right fit on the OL so how can you have a whole lot of confidence at this point on our Offense that we will run away from any one much less a pretty darn good team like LTU.   I would rate them every bit as high as Toledo and we all remember that game.

Right now with the info I have I say Arkansas by a less than 10.

Now comes an even bigger test. Tech returns a sneaky-low amount of last year's production -- 39 percent overall, fourth-lowest in FBS -- and the quality of Holtz's recruiting will tell us how far the Bulldogs fall, if at all.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/2/23/11082120/louisiana-tech-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster

[HogFansReunited]

Our D will score 21 on them.

[bigdaddyhawg]

*fixed*

Wrong.  If I've learned one thing about betting Vegas lines in CFB, there's no such thing as a no brainer.

Anyway, here's my pick: I'm picking the Hogs to come out of the gate strong this fall, a complete difference from the last three years.

I think our OL is going to be fine all year, but will look really good vs. LaTech, and opening the season in DFRRS is going to result in a much larger final margin than anyone (in this thread) is believing for.

Give the points, take the Hogs!!

[GuvHog]

Our D will score 21 on them.

I don't know if the Hog D will score that much against LTU but I do believe the Hog Defense will carry the team the first couple of games until the Hog Offense gets solidified and on track.

[TheRazorback500]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/2/23/11082120/louisiana-tech-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster

Good article. I think we win easily. I don't live too far from Ruston and the people I talk to who know LTU are not looking forward to this game.

[secneahog]

All Vegas wants is for equal money on both sides but I think it is way too generous myself.   If I did bet on College sports I would put my Dollar on LTU and take the points.  We have a QB with NO starting experience. No starting experience at RB.  We lost 3 OLM and the ones that played in the Red White game did not protect AA very well or open up many holes against the 2nd and 3rd teams either.   Coaches are still searching for right fit on the OL so how can you have a whole lot of confidence at this point on our Offense that we will run away from any one much less a pretty darn good team like LTU.   I would rate them every bit as high as Toledo and we all remember that game.

Right now with the info I have I say Arkansas by a less than 10.

Hahahahahhahahahahhahhahaha

[Seebs]

Easy over.  They will not score and half of their offense will be in the infirmary.  Whaley sits after 2.5 quarters with 120 yards and 3 Tds. TJ Hammonds runs for 90 and 2 TDs. Walker runs for 30,  Day for 40 and Williams III for 80 and a TD.

AA passes for 280 and 2 TDs

Hogs win a bazillion to 6. 

[bigdaddyhawg]

Easy over.  They will not score and half of their offense will be in the infirmary.  Whaley sits after 2.5 quarters with 120 yards and 3 Tds. TJ Hammonds runs for 90 and 2 TDs. Walker runs for 30,  Day for 40 and Williams III for 80 and a TD.

AA passes for 280 and 2 TDs

Hogs win a bazillion to 6. 

There it is.

[nwahogfan1]

La Tech lost everything.  Think they have something like 5 starters back on offense and 3 on defense.  They have more holes than us and are less talented than us. Combo with a road game, seems about right.

I did not know what LT had coming back so you made some valid points.  They were pretty darn good last year so I just figured they recruited pretty well and would be in the hunt for a conference Championship.  So you are betting more on LT weaknesses than necessarily our strengths.  I can understand that.  I do think our Defense will be much better even if our offense is not ready yet and if LT has no offense then you are thinking we might win 24-3.  Makes sense. 

But if they are a spread team even with a new QB if they have those very quick WRs who get tons of yards after catch (TT type of athletes) they could give us fits with out any 4 and 5 stars on their roster.

[TheRazorback500]

Tech signed three 3-stars in their 2016 class, including David Beasley from Pine Bluff. The rest were twos.

I agree on the quick receivers. They are one of LTU's returning strengths, along with safeties and special teams.

:razorback:

[yraciv]

I did not know what LT had coming back so you made some valid points.  They were pretty darn good last year so I just figured they recruited pretty well and would be in the hunt for a conference Championship.  So you are betting more on LT weaknesses than necessarily our strengths.  I can understand that.  I do think our Defense will be much better even if our offense is not ready yet and if LT has no offense then you are thinking we might win 24-3.  Makes sense. 

But if they are a spread team even with a new QB if they have those very quick WRs who get tons of yards after catch (TT type of athletes) they could give us fits with out any 4 and 5 stars on their roster.

I was thinking more 34-10. We may blow a coverage, but I don't think we have much difficulty with their defense.

[j-mann]

i say 34-17     hogs 

slow first haif    dominant 3rd q     

[ricepig]

i say 34-17     hogs 

slow first haif    dominant 3rd q     

Yeah, actual spread I've been thinking. I don't know if we give up 17, I'm also not sure we score 34 in our opener.

[HogMantheIntruder]

I like the way this works out for us. The Hogs don't have enough question marks to worry too much about an upset ***knock on wood***, especially now that Dixon is gone.  That being said, LATech generally fields a salty team that will give us a good fight and show where we need improvement. We should be able to pull away in the second half and give a lot of our guys reps, which could prove very valuable the following week against TCU.

[southeasthog]

Right now with the info I have I say Arkansas by a less than 10.

I did not know what LT had coming back

So you are saying that you didn't have "any" info when you went with the "Arkansas by less than 10"?

Sounds about right.

[FANONTHEHILL]

I think people are putting way to much emphasis on the Red-White game.  I attended 10 of the 15 spring practices and what you saw April 23rd wasn't what you saw all spring.  The scrimmage two weeks earlier. About 150 plays, was a much better indicator of who and where the team actually is.  There are certainly things that need to be tightened up, but we're in much better shape than most people think.  As far as a betting line for La Tech, point spreads in week one are always a mystery. 

[LZH]

I haven't placed a bet in several years, but would never have bet more than $100 on a Hog game....I certainly would leave this one alone if I were trying to hang onto my money. If it was real $$$ I looked to bet, I'd pick a Top 5 team vs. a New Edinburgh 7th Grade- type opponent. A game such as Oklahoma -35 over UTSA or someone like that would be right up my alley. Because four out of five times the powerhouse team would always cover, usually beating the hell out of the Baby League school 65-7 or something similar.

Arkansas/LTU will be an ugly, ugly game with too many turnovers and penalties. I'd say 31-17 sounds about right to me. Provided the Dogs are as competitive as they have been recently, if we can score 40 points or more while holding them to under two and a half or three touchdowns I would say we did pretty well. Maybe that would mean Bielema is about to shed his knack for losing games early in the season.

[code red]

We will roll up La Tech....book it!!!!

[bigdaddyhawg]

I haven't placed a bet in several years, but would never have bet more than $100 on a Hog game....I certainly would leave this one alone if I were trying to hang onto my money. If it was real $$$ I looked to bet, I'd pick a Top 5 team vs. a New Edinburgh 7th Grade- type opponent. A game such as Oklahoma -35 over UTSA or someone like that would be right up my alley. Because four out of five times the powerhouse team would always cover, usually beating the hell out of the Baby League school 65-7 or something similar.

Arkansas/LTU will be an ugly, ugly game with too many turnovers and penalties. I'd say 31-17 sounds about right to me. Provided the Dogs are as competitive as they have been recently, if we can score 40 points or more while holding them to under two and a half or three touchdowns I would say we did pretty well. Maybe that would mean Bielema is about to shed his knack for losing games early in the season.

Spoken like a true fan who doesn't believe in his team.

[GuvHog]

I haven't placed a bet in several years, but would never have bet more than $100 on a Hog game....I certainly would leave this one alone if I were trying to hang onto my money. If it was real $$$ I looked to bet, I'd pick a Top 5 team vs. a New Edinburgh 7th Grade- type opponent. A game such as Oklahoma -35 over UTSA or someone like that would be right up my alley. Because four out of five times the powerhouse team would always cover, usually beating the hell out of the Baby League school 65-7 or something similar.

Arkansas/LTU will be an ugly, ugly game with too many turnovers and penalties. I'd say 31-17 sounds about right to me. Provided the Dogs are as competitive as they have been recently, if we can score 40 points or more while holding them to under two and a half or three touchdowns I would say we did pretty well. Maybe that would mean Bielema is about to shed his knack for losing games early in the season.

IMHO if LTU somehow manages to score 17 points against the Hogs, it will be against the Hog 3rd team defense. They are going to have serious problems moving the ball against this year's 1st team Hog defense.

It's my understanding (I could very well be wrong, I admit) that LTU returns as few as 3 starters on offense and they will be playing against a Hog defense that returns 9 starters and some good depth. For LTU, that is a recipe for disaster.

[BornaHog]

IMHO if LTU somehow manages to score 17 points against the Hogs, it will be against the Hog 3rd team defense. They are going to have serious problems moving the ball against this year's 1st team Hog defense.

  Or the second team D either! Our D is going to be much better than people are thinking right now, but as the season progresses, they will understand. The O will become better and by the fourth game should become very cohesive and will look like what they should be the rest of the year. Austin won't break all of Brandon's records, but will look just as good as Brandon did by the end of his career at Arkansas. I am very much looking forward to the upcoming season and future seasons with CBB at the helm! This is my personal opinion that HOG football is really looking up for years to come and that CBB is at least 1 year ahead of what he is working to build!   WPS    :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:   GHG

[LZH]

Spoken like a true fan who doesn't believe in his team.

Not sure why you think that....until Bielema wins his way out of poor starts to a season I don't know how anyone could see it much differently.

[HoopS]

We return a lot on D. They don't return much on O. And we've badly out recruited them. We have a plethora of playmakers vs a poor defense. Yes we have to replace some OL and our QB.

We will win this handily.

[ricepig]

Not sure why you think that....until Bielema wins his way out of poor starts to a season I don't know how anyone could see it much differently.

How many games is considered the "start" to a season?

[nwahogfan1]

So you are saying that you didn't have "any" info when you went with the "Arkansas by less than 10"?

Sounds about right.

My logic is based on what I judge our 1st game strengths and weaknesses will against LT style of play.  Remember TT and you will remember we don't do to well against that style at least early.  I figured LTU recruits well for their fast uptempo style even if they are rated only 2 and low 3 star athletes.  They will hit their scat backs in space and let them use their wiggle to get yards.  Their defense will be fast, fast, fast and their Def. Coor. will run all sorts of slants and schemes trying to disrupt a our inexperienced OL and completely new starting QB.   Plus based on what I saw in the Spring game I am not real sure of our Offense right now.  OL is still undecided and learning, no starting RB returning and AA has no starting experience.  We love power football but  I did not see us making huge holes in our 2/3s we saw in the spring game.  How do we know what AA or our OL will do in an actual game if LTU puts 8 in the box and mixes up their blitz and DB coverages.   Is AA ready to throw for 300+ yards if we need him to if LTU puts 8 in the box which I would do if I was them.

So we will see.  I hope we beat them by 21+ but I would not bet my money in Vegas based on what I know and don't know.

Now I would bet your money so if you have any extra you want to send me that would be super.  Thanks in advance. 

[bigdaddyhawg]

Not sure why you think that....until Bielema wins his way out of poor starts to a season I don't know how anyone could see it much differently.

Well, I do see things differently.

The last two seasons we've been breaking in new Coordinators, and that makes a difference.  It takes a new guy a while to get his system going. 

That's not the case this fall.  And while you may be right, in that these slow starts are on Bielema, I think there's also plenty of evidence that could lead a person to a different conclusion than you reach.

But that would require that person NOT to have a predilection toward the negative.

[LZH]

Well, I do see things differently.

The last two seasons we've been breaking in new Coordinators, and that makes a difference.  It takes a new guy a while to get his system going. 

That's not the case this fall.  And while you may be right, in that these slow starts are on Bielema, I think there's also plenty of evidence that could lead a person to a different conclusion than you reach.

But that would require that person NOT to have a predilection toward the negative.

I don't think I was being negative. My point was really that the first game of the season is usually far less than perfect. As for the comment about Bielema's early season record, well it was more of an afterthought than anything. He is a sharp cat, so whatever caused him to start slow the past couple of years I am sure he is well aware of it and certainly plans on correcting it.

[GuvHog]

My logic is based on what I judge our 1st game strengths and weaknesses will against LT style of play.  Remember TT and you will remember we don't do to well against that style at least early.  I figured LTU recruits well for their fast uptempo style even if they are rated only 2 and low 3 star athletes.  They will hit their scat backs in space and let them use their wiggle to get yards.  Their defense will be fast, fast, fast and their Def. Coor. will run all sorts of slants and schemes trying to disrupt a our inexperienced OL and completely new starting QB.   Plus based on what I saw in the Spring game I am not real sure of our Offense right now.  OL is still undecided and learning, no starting RB returning and AA has no starting experience.  We love power football but  I did not see us making huge holes in our 2/3s we saw in the spring game.  How do we know what AA or our OL will do in an actual game if LTU puts 8 in the box and mixes up their blitz and DB coverages.   Is AA ready to throw for 300+ yards if we need him to if LTU puts 8 in the box which I would do if I was them.

So we will see.  I hope we beat them by 21+ but I would not bet my money in Vegas based on what I know and don't know.

Now I would bet your money so if you have any extra you want to send me that would be super.  Thanks in advance. 

For the record, LTU lost a lot on defense too. They return maybe 4 or 5 starters and will be just as questionable on defense as you say the Hog offense will be.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

People wanting to draw any kind of comparisons to this game and Toledo game are just uninformed.

If this were 2015 La Tech I'd be concerned.  It's not.

Couple that with a few other I don't know maybe facts.  Fact is that this is the first year he's had both coordinators returning.

Before last year the previous 2 years he started 3-1 so the slow start thing is really weighted more toward conference games not non-con. 

Even if you do want to call out Toledo, look at the actual stats, out gained them by 200 yards.  Killed them in TOP and got twice as many 1st downs.  Everything you would expect versus a mid major opponent.  Just stalled in the red zone which I'm sure had nothing to do with it being first real challenge under new OC and without JW.  If you want to find another comparable mid major game in recent history look no further than NIU 2014.  A very good MAC team that finished 11-2 in the regular season was beaten by 38 in Fayetteville.

I'm not into predicting scores or W's too much, but I am confident.

[TechDawg-Hawg]

LATech will have Ryan Higgins at QB. He started in 2013 as a freshman in Holtz's first year. He's not good at long-deep passes but makes pretty excellent and on target short passes. The WRs are all good. They return 2 RBs who are decent, Jarrod Craft has been Dixon's backup for at least the past two years and Boston Scott was a walk-on from this past year, he lead the team in rushing in the bowl game. Had limited playtime but because of Dixon but made the most of it with like 8 ypc in the season.  Jaylon Ferguson and Xavier Woods are good defensive returners. I think Ferguson lead the team in sacks this season, and he didnt even start to play until midway through.
Cant tell much though, had high scoring "spring game." It was Offense vs defense style, not one like the hogs had.

I say they play close until starters wear down and need to be replaced.

[LZH]

LATech will have Ryan Higgins at QB. He started in 2013 as a freshman in Holtz's first year. He's not good at long-deep passes but makes pretty excellent and on target short passes. The WRs are all good. They return 2 RBs who are decent, Jarrod Craft has been Dixon's backup for at least the past two years and Boston Scott was a walk-on from this past year, he lead the team in rushing in the bowl game. Had limited playtime but because of Dixon but made the most of it with like 8 ypc in the season.  Jaylon Ferguson and Xavier Woods are good defensive returners. I think Ferguson lead the team in sacks this season, and he didnt even start to play until midway through.
Cant tell much though, had high scoring "spring game." It was Offense vs defense style, not one like the hogs had.

I say they play close until starters wear down and need to be replaced.

You didn't start an argument, how dare you. Banned forever.

[BornaHog]

LATech will have Ryan Higgins at QB. He started in 2013 as a freshman in Holtz's first year. He's not good at long-deep passes but makes pretty excellent and on target short passes. The WRs are all good. They return 2 RBs who are decent, Jarrod Craft has been Dixon's backup for at least the past two years and Boston Scott was a walk-on from this past year, he lead the team in rushing in the bowl game. Had limited playtime but because of Dixon but made the most of it with like 8 ypc in the season.  Jaylon Ferguson and Xavier Woods are good defensive returners. I think Ferguson lead the team in sacks this season, and he didnt even start to play until midway through.
Cant tell much though, had high scoring "spring game." It was Offense vs defense style, not one like the hogs had.

I say they play close until starters wear down and need to be replaced.

   The HOG D is going to be something special this year and not just the "first string" they are going to be 2 deep across the front and 3 deep on both ends. The linebackers will be deeper than in a long time, even though they will be a little young in the 2nd string. The DB's are an older group and if CPR does what CBB brought him in for, those guys will do this year, at their positions, what BA did at his last year, and that was night and day!

   When the HOG D holds some teams to under 200 total yards, people will start to really take notice. I am really looking forward to the O catching up to the D by the 4th game and then the HOGS will start rolling!   WPS    :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:   GHG