A Bold Prediction for the 2020 Season

[NaturalStateReb]

Arkansas/Oklahoma will be a conference game.

Texas is blocking Big 12 expansion, they're blocking a Big 12 Network, and more than likely they'll block a Big 12 championship game.  Just to nail the point home, Texas has pretty much spit in OU's face over the Big 12's walk-on transfer rule.

Oklahoma is going to leave the Big 12.  It's a matter of time.  I think they'll go to the SEC because I don't think they'll meet the B1G's academic or geogrphic requirements.  Texas will keep the Big 12 band together in a new SWC 2.0.

[SoCal Hog]

Do you think they bring OK State with them, or will the SEC look for another school (maybe to the east) to bring the total to 16 teams?

[Jackrabbit Hog]

Arkansas/Oklahoma will be a conference game.

Texas is blocking Big 12 expansion, they're blocking a Big 12 Network, and more than likely they'll block a Big 12 championship game.  Just to nail the point home, Texas has pretty much spit in OU's face over the Big 12's walk-on transfer rule.

Oklahoma is going to leave the Big 12.  It's a matter of time.  I think they'll go to the SEC because I don't think they'll meet the B1G's academic or geogrphic requirements.  Texas will keep the Big 12 band together in a new SWC 2.0.

I'd go so far as to say your prediction isn't that bold.  I'd say chances right now are better than 50-50 that Oklahoma is already having "closed door" meetings about such a move.

[NaturalStateReb]

Do you think they bring OK State with them, or will the SEC look for another school (maybe to the east) to bring the total to 16 teams?

I don't know if we'd take two from Oklahoma, but we might.  I think West Virginia is a possibility.

I think if we took two from the Big 12, we'd move Bama and Auburn to the East and Missouri back West. 

[Arkansas Fan]

We are playing Oklahoma in 2020?

[Dr. Starcs]

My bold prediction: even if your prediction comes true, we will have forgotten about this thread by then. Lol

[Hogarusa]

I like bold predictions for 2020. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I don't know if we'd take two from Oklahoma, but we might.  I think West Virginia is a possibility.

I think if we took two from the Big 12, we'd move Bama and Auburn to the East and Missouri back West. 

Oklahoma may be forced (due to state politics) to take Oklahoma State with them wherever they choose to go, but one thing is probably certain and that is Oklahoma pursuing the SEC for an invitation for membership. Why? The power of the economics of the situation. Oklahoma would have an easier time in terms of competition by moving to the Pac 12 or the Big Ten, but it is future money that may be the big draw.

Oklahoma had a net profit/loss of 11.2 million last year. SEC teams averaged a net profit/loss of 16.9 million. A 5.7 million difference. Ohio State had only 13.1 million as basically the top dog in the Big Ten, just a hair under 2 million more than Oklahoma. None of the Pac 12 schools are even listed among the top ten earners, nor are any of the ACC.

As Texas continues to pose a problem for the Big 12, we may see Oklahoma (and perhaps Okla State) make the jump to the SEC.

Edit: With regard to W. Virginia, they are in a tough spot. Their academics are among (if not the) worst of P-5 schools. That seems to be a factor these days with regard to the consideration of potential expansion candidates. What is their Nielsen draw on a national basis when they play? Probably not as high as that of Oklahoma State (who rivals Missouri in that category) let alone Oklahoma who has a tendency to draw a lot of viewers.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/26/11456612/athletic-department-finances-sec-big-ten-pac-12-acc

[Hugo Bezdek]

I'll be interested to see if the Baylor situation plays into this as well. The Big 12 deal with FOX depends on the B12 maintaining at least ten members. If the Title IX suit against Baylor results in the death penalty, or expulsion from the conference the B12 could take a hit and I can't imagine their Grant-of-Rights holding up if that happens.

[HogBreath]

Sounds like Texas' biggest enemy is.........Texas.

[bcdeputy]

I think wherever Oklahoma goes, so goes Oklahoma State... and that's actually fine.

Would that move Auburn and Alabama to the East?

OU, OSU, Texas AM, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss and Miss St in West

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Sounds like Texas' biggest enemy is.........Texas.

I think (from what I am hearing over here) that many in Oklahoma share the same sentiment. Oklahoma can't pose itself as being the savior of the conference as long as Texas is involved with their current attitude and posture. Texas could end all of this struggle by simply agreeing to give up the LHN and and join in establishing a Big 12 Network, but they don't seem to want to do that.

Additionally, the Big 12 needs to get back to a minimum of 12 teams and at least from a revenue generation standpoint, hold a Big 12 CCG again. But it seems that some (maybe Texas?) are against this, thinking that if they can right the ship, they have an easier road to the Playoffs by keeping things as they are at this time. But that is short sighted thinking as the conference continues to head towards implosion.

So Oklahoma sits here with other members less than willing to expand the conference and Texas seeming to be unwilling to convert the LHN to a Big 12 Network, while putting up with all of the errors at Baylor, while making less money than the lower ranking schools in the SEC, and the SEC looks all the more attractive than ever from a revenue standpoint.

The only questions are, will the SEC issue the invitation and what baggage would Oklahoma have to bring with them?

[longpig]

Instead of leaving the Big 12, why don't the Big 12 make Texas leave?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Instead of leaving the Big 12, why don't the Big 12 make Texas leave?

They should, but that isn't going to happen. You don't kick the richest team in college football out of the conference. You just leave them to their own devices with a disintegrating conference that grows weaker by the day, while improving your own position for the future. That is the greatest disservice that you can do to them.

[Oklahawg]

B1G, ACC, and Pac 12 schools are expected to be top-tier Carnegie Research Institutions. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_research_universities_in_the_United_States

You'll note that Arkansas and Oklahoma are on the top list, but OSU is not. West Virginia is, somehow, while three other notables are not: Auburn, Mississippi State and Kansas State.

Miss State and Auburn are the academic armpits for the SEC. Even Ole Miss made the top list.

I bring this up because OU and Okie State are thought to be tethered for switching conferences. OSU cannot get into the Pac 12 or B1G (or ACC) while OU could. (A more prestigious listing here, not many SEC or B12 schools: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Universities).

[ALLVOL]

Oklahoma may be forced (due to state politics) to take Oklahoma State with them wherever they choose to go, but one thing is probably certain and that is Oklahoma pursuing the SEC for an invitation for membership. Why? The power of the economics of the situation. Oklahoma would have an easier time in terms of competition by moving to the Pac 12 or the Big Ten, but it is future money that may be the big draw.

Oklahoma had a net profit/loss of 11.2 million last year. SEC teams averaged a net profit/loss of 16.9 million. A 5.7 million difference. Ohio State had only 13.1 million as basically the top dog in the Big Ten, just a hair under 2 million more than Oklahoma. None of the Pac 12 schools are even listed among the top ten earners, nor are any of the ACC.

As Texas continues to pose a problem for the Big 12, we may see Oklahoma (and perhaps Okla State) make the jump to the SEC.

Edit: With regard to W. Virginia, they are in a tough spot. Their academics are among (if not the) worst of P-5 schools. That seems to be a factor these days with regard to the consideration of potential expansion candidates. What is their Nielsen draw on a national basis when they play? Probably not as high as that of Oklahoma State (who rivals Missouri in that category) let alone Oklahoma who has a tendency to draw a lot of viewers.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/26/11456612/athletic-department-finances-sec-big-ten-pac-12-acc

You're exactly right. OU can't leave without OSU due to the state legislature.

[longpig]

They should, but that isn't going to happen. You don't kick the richest team in college football out of the conference. You just leave them to their own devices with a disintegrating conference that grows weaker by the day, while improving your own position for the future. That is the greatest disservice that you can do to them.

I'd be picking up my ball and going home.

[Hugo Bezdek]

I'd be picking up my ball and going home.

The Big 12 has little value to the networks without Texas. If you're Iowa State, K-State, OSU, T-Tech, TCU, WVU or Baylor, you run a real risk of going the way of the Big East if Texas leaves. OU and KU will find a landing spot. WVU might land in the ACC. After that the options start to look like the Mountain West or the American.

[snoblind]

I'd be picking up my ball and going home.

yep

[longpig]

The Big 12 has little value to the networks without Texas. If you're Iowa State, K-State, OSU, T-Tech, TCU, WVU or Baylor, you run a real risk of going the way of the Big East if Texas leaves. OU and KU will find a landing spot. WVU might land in the ACC. After that the options start to look like the Mountain West or the American.

I can see that being the case but doesn't it go both ways? Texas must know it has little value to the networks if not playing in a competitive conference.  No way they could make being independent work like ND does.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Arkansas/Oklahoma will be a conference game.

Texas is blocking Big 12 expansion, they're blocking a Big 12 Network, and more than likely they'll block a Big 12 championship game.  Just to nail the point home, Texas has pretty much spit in OU's face over the Big 12's walk-on transfer rule.

Oklahoma is going to leave the Big 12.  It's a matter of time.  I think they'll go to the SEC because I don't think they'll meet the B1G's academic or geogrphic requirements.  Texas will keep the Big 12 band together in a new SWC 2.0.

And mine is that by then ole Hughie down at Ole Misery will actually figure out what he really "owns".

[Hogwild]

I don't know if we'd take two from Oklahoma, but we might.  I think West Virginia is a possibility.

I think if we took two from the Big 12, we'd move Bama and Auburn to the East and Missouri back West.

I really doubt the SEC would take two school from the state of Oklahoma, wouldn't make financial sense.

And West Virginia has already been rejected by the SEC & ACC.  Even the Big 12 is feeling buyer's remorse for taking them over UL.

As talk continues to heat up about "super conferences" West Virginia has seen two other bids to join those conferences turned down.

According to Brett McMurphy of CBS Sports, the university has seen the ACC and SEC reject their bids for inclusion in possible realignment.

This is hardly a shocking development from the ACC. The conference has turned down the Mountaineers a few times in the past and maintained a firm line of not accepting them into their academically elite conference. Not every conference considers academics very highly for inclusion, but the ACC is one that does.

As for the SEC, they don't gain much from including West Virginia at all. There is minimal recruiting, no major market and they don't have a dire need to anybody else should the conferences decide to expand.

[Mike_e]

OU can leave lil brother.

Lil brother is in a P5 conference now so if OU leaves they are still in a P5 conference.

Yes OU would be bringing in more money than o st but if you hadn't noticed memphis is willing to buy their way into the big whatever through a cash payout (giving them a better sponsor to their championship game if they decide to have one)  up front and forgo money for a few years.  All OU has to do is to pay off o st and with enough arm twisting to boot just walk away.

As to who else we'd take, who knows.  If the east is still down the SEC might actually take FSU.  One blackball isn't enough to nix a deal.  They might go ahead and take an east carolina or someone like them who is willing to do what it takes to build their brand.

They might also take Kansas if they would be willing to up their football game.  Adding two more to the west would allow auburn to move east like they want and things would even out.  MU would still be in the east unless the SEC also put MS St. into the east to allow them to mover.

[Hogwild]

Big 12 just voted to add a championship game

[Vantage 8 dude]

Big 12 just voted to add a championship game

Now that should REALLY be exciting