Projecting our finish this season

[WizardofhOgZ]

My projection is done using the "expected value' method, which I've used many times over the years to very good results.  I'd call our "real world" (i.e., not "homer") chances of winning each of the remaining games this way:

Tennessee              75%
@Florida                 40%
South Carolina         70%
Mississippi St           75%
@Auburn                 50%
@ Ole Miss              30%
Missouri                  65%
@Mississippi St         45%
Texas A&M              70%
@#1 Kentucky          25%
@South Carolina       40%
LSU                        60%

TOTAL                    6.45 wins

So, I see us going 6-6 or 7-5 in our remaining conference games, which means we will wither finish at 21-10 (10-8), or 22-9 (11-7).  However, since I don't think we'll lose more than 1 of our remaining home games (if we lose any), I'm going to go for the higher win total (22-9) as my season prediction.  Of course, this does not count the SEC tournament.

[All Bleed Red]

I'm predicting a finish of 23-8, which would probably put us in tourney at a 6-9 seed.  The SEC tourney can also have an impact on seeding.  Hopefully it plays out great.  This team is really hard to predict!   :razorback: :razorback:

[Hawg Red]

I had us 24-7 and we're one game off where I projected us to be thus far. I had us losing to SMU but beating Clemson, so those two canceled out. I had beating Ole Miss but they've done what I thought they would do in the other SEC games. Excellent opportunity to get back on track (for me, anyway) Saturday at Florida. I had us losing that one, but it looks very winnable right now.

As of right now, I'm hopeful that we can hold to what I predict, but I don't think it's going to happen if we play the way we have over the last 4 games. It's just not good enough. We could easily be on a 4-game losing streak. The good news is that I've seen them play better than this against good teams this season, so they could very well snap out of it, but as it is now, they're just barely getting by.

[Pork Twain]

I think we can get 22 wins(+/-2)

[hogsanity]

My projection is done using the "expected value' method, which I've used many times over the years to very good results.  I'd call our "real world" (i.e., not "homer") chances of winning each of the remaining games this way:

Tennessee              75%
@Florida                 40%
South Carolina         70%
Mississippi St           75%
@Auburn                 50%
@ Ole Miss              30%
Missouri                  65%
@Mississippi St         45%
Texas A&M              70%
@#1 Kentucky          25%
@South Carolina       40%
LSU                        60%

TOTAL                    6.45 wins

So, I see us going 6-6 or 7-5 in our remaining conference games, which means we will wither finish at 21-10 (10-8), or 22-9 (11-7).  However, since I don't think we'll lose more than 1 of our remaining home games (if we lose any), I'm going to go for the higher win total (22-9) as my season prediction.  Of course, this does not count the SEC tournament.

If they go 10-8 in the sec, they will need AT LEAST 1 sect win to get a ncaat bid.  11-7 and they are right on the bubble. 10-6 I think they are in no matter what happens in the sect.

[TheRazorbackGuy]

If they go 10-8 in the sec, they will need AT LEAST 1 sect win to get a ncaat bid.  11-7 and they are right on the bubble. 10-6 I think they are in no matter what happens in the sect.

Indeed Hogsanity. I'm going to say Arkansas will be a bubble team.

[Kevin]

23 wins

[jry04]

11 sec wins and we are in. The SEC currently has 7 top 50 rpi teams, plus UT at #55. People can complain about the league all they want, but the rpi of the league is actually as good as any other conference. Not many leagues can claim 7 top 50 rpi teams.

I think we finish 23-8 or 22-9, but either would be enough to get in.

[HSVhogfan2]

I think this team is absolutely impossible to handicap. They are, IMO, a bit fragile mentally, with still some drama in the locker room. I could see them going 10-2 with only losses being Florida and KY on the road. I can also see 6-6. If I was going to throw a dart in the dark, I would say 8-4 for 23 wins and a 7-8 seed.

[jry04]

I think this team is absolutely impossible to handicap. They are, IMO, a bit fragile mentally, with still some drama in the locker room. I could see them going 10-2 with only losses being Florida and KY on the road. I can also see 6-6. If I was going to throw a dart in the dark, I would say 8-4 for 23 wins and a 7-8 seed.

So they won 2 nail biters, but they are fragile...


And what problems in the locker room?

[mhuff]

24 wins counting tournament. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Hoggish1]

I see us going 6-6 or 7-5 in our remaining conference games, which means we will wither finish at 21-10 (10-8), or 22-9 (11-7). 

I'm there, too.  But unless they play better at home, there could be a slight adjustment.

I'm guessing this 2nd nail biter may have changed things for the better...  (hoping...)

[HSVhogfan2]

So they won 2 nail biters, but they are fragile...


And what problems in the locker room?

Not blasting the team, and you can look at my posts and see I am a big MA booster, but you do realize one of the nail biters involved Ole Miss choking 2 free throws?

The other problem was discussed in another thread on Jump Ball.

[HF#1]

If we only win 6 more games then Mike will have a problem.

[Danny J]

11 sec wins and we are in. The SEC currently has 7 top 50 rpi teams, plus UT at #55. People can complain about the league all they want, but the rpi of the league is actually as good as any other conference. Not many leagues can claim 7 top 50 rpi teams.

I think we finish 23-8 or 22-9, but either would be enough to get in.

[Danny J]

Not blasting the team, and you can look at my posts and see I am a big MA booster, but you do realize one of the nail biters involved Ole Miss choking 2 free throws?

The other problem was discussed in another thread on Jump Ball.

I think you mean Mizzou but remember that we missed 2 FT's also at around the 5 minute mark by a guy who shoots better at the line than did Clark from Mizzou.

[HSVhogfan2]

I think you mean Mizzou but remember that we missed 2 FT's also at around the 5 minute mark by a guy who shoots better at the line than did Clark from Mizzou.

Yes. Thanks

[Breems]

Should be 80% for Missouri and -750% @Ole Miss.

[popcornhog]

6-0 at home
3-3 on the road

[popcornhog]

Should be 80% for Missouri and -750% @Ole Miss.

We couldn't even win at Ole Miss in the mid 1990s. We are forever cursed at the Tad Pad.

[Thepigdoctor]

11 sec wins and we are in. The SEC currently has 7 top 50 rpi teams, plus UT at #55. People can complain about the league all they want, but the rpi of the league is actually as good as any other conference. Not many leagues can claim 7 top 50 rpi teams.

I think we finish 23-8 or 22-9, but either would be enough to get in.

I've been trying to tout the Sec the last couple months. No one will listen. The perceived bias has not held up this year, rpi game was played far better, unfortunately, we've had some teams stumbling in conference drastically lowering rpi's (see SC dropping from 60's to 116 currently). That's a game I really worry about @SC. They have the potential to be a bad loss, if they don't get their stink together. Always worry about a bruce pearl squad, and playing at nasty ass miss st.

I project 3 losses, @fl, @ol miss, @uk. All home games should be won, we match up well. Can't lose to sub 100 rpi teams. 25-7, win a couple in the sect and we could still get as high as a 4 seed. Go to the title game against UK, win one of those three I marked as losses, and there is the potential still for a 3 seed. We control our own destiny moreso than any team in the sec not named UK. A strong finish and sect showing, possibly even stealing one from UK could get us as a 3 seed without question. We have great wins and currently no "bad losses."

[HSVhogfan2]

6-0 at home
3-3 on the road

I think everyone would take that in a heartbeat.

[popcornhog]

I think everyone would take that in a heartbeat.

I agree. And it would put us where I and many others predicted pre-season.

Still very doable.

[Rawker]

I think everyone would take that in a heartbeat.

I definitely would. But @SC is also a loss. I feel about them the same way I do Ole Miss.  The Hogs win that one, it won't be a "shoulda won that anyway"....it will be a fantastic win.

[greghog]

6-0 at home
3-3 on the road

Would love it.  Don't see if happening. 

[ifghog]

6-0 at home
3-3 on the road

I love your optimism but I think we go 2-4 on rd at best.

[WMHawgfan]

Its not just the final conf record, its who we beat and who we lose to. We can go 11-7 but if we lose to MSU and AU that will hurt our chances greatly. I know I am being captain obvious but we can't have losses to the bottom of the league and expect to make it in. Take care of business men!

[Adam Stokes]

I predicted 8-1 at home and 4-5 on the road.  Think that is still pretty accurate.  May finish 7-2 & 5-4, but still think 12-6 is reasonable and will get us a 7 seed.  11-7 will likely get us around a 9 seed.  10-8 and we need some SEC tourney help.

[TNhawgfan]

We couldn't even win at Ole Miss in the mid 1990s. We are forever cursed at the Tad Pad.

It's not just ole miss. We have terrible records at a lot of schools in the SEC. One of you stat guys please look this up : how many places do we have a winning record at since we joined the conference

[jackflash]

The way we play some games. I just take them one game at a time. I just can't tell which team is going to show up.

[Mick Hogger]

It's not just ole miss. We have terrible records at a lot of schools in the SEC. One of you stat guys please look this up : how many places do we have a winning record at since we joined the conference

Without even looking my first guess is none.