Warren Nolan's simulation now has Hogs projected to bring home the bacon

[WizardofhOgZ]

Interesting that his simulation gives MSU almost twice as good a chance to emerge from the "other" side of the bracket as it does Oregon State, yet OSU has a significantly higher chance of winning the entire thing than does MSU.  That tells me the simulator gives OSU a much higher chance against us (or, whoever comes out of our side) than it does MSU.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/simulation-cws

[hogman64]

of course it does, they would have to beat us 2 out of 3, they have to beat Miss State 2 out of 2.......I mean those calculations
aren't really totally related..

[WizardofhOgZ]

of course it does, they would have to beat us 2 out of 3, they have to beat Miss State 2 out of 2.......

***I see you edited your post by the time I finished and posted mine***

I don't think you are understanding me.  I'm NOT surprised that MSU has a better chance of getting to the Championship series that OSU does.  Although, that it is "only" 57% to 43% (compared to 75% to 25%, which is what you would expect if the teams were seen to be "even") shows that the OSU is considered a solid favorite over MSU in a single game scenario.  It's that OSU has a 26% chance of winning the Championship series, while MSU has only a 15% chance.  That's not 26% IF they get to the Championship series; that's 26% given their current status, in which they have a much lessor chance of even getting into the Finals than does MSU.

Either team that gets there would have to beat us (or, whoever comes from our side) 2 out of 3 to win the Championship.  But OSU's odds are diminished (compared to MSU's) because the latter has a much better chance (57% to 43%) to even get into the Finals to begin with.

What that tells us is that the simulator gives OSU about twice as good a chance of winning the best of 3 series against our side of the bracket (us, or whoever) than it does MSU.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Also, he predicts Tech to win (54% chance) in a close game.

However, he picked Tech to beat us yesterday too, which was curious since we are (and were, before the game) higher ranked in RPI and his ELO rankings than they are.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/predict-games

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/elochess