2016 SEC Football Projections

[jbcarol]

Athlon SEC Football 2016 Predictions

SEC 2016 Team Previews
East Division                      
National Rank:
   UF 20    UG 16    UK 56    MU 62    SC 63    UT 7            VU 57

West Division                  
National Rank:
   Bama 1    Ark 26    AU 35    LS 9           MS 41    OM 10    A&M 28

[jbcarol]

ESPN predicts LSU-Tennessee in SEC Championship game

ESPN The Magazine released their conference predictions on Tuesday

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SEC Network ‏@SECNetwork 14h14 hours ago

ESPN The Magazine
CFB Preview

SEC West Standings
1) LSU
2) Alabama
3) Ole Miss
4) Texas A&M
5) Mississippi State
6) Auburn
7) Arkansas

SEC East Standings
1) Tennessee
2) Georgia
3) Florida
4) South Carolina
5) Missouri
6) Kentucky
7) Vanderbilt

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/DanielPaulling/status/743590250107142145

[jbcarol]

Here are 13 upsets that could happen in 2016, one for each week of the SEC season.

Week 4: Georgia at Ole Miss – Sept. 24

Freshman QB Jacob Eason is expected to take the reins at Georgia next season. Fielding a freshman starter at quarterback can spell doom, but Eason is a special prospect. Against a rebuilding Ole Miss defense, the freshman will have a golden opportunity to put together a breakout game.

[jbcarol]

If you're looking for a handy place to compare the preseason rankings of high-profile publications, Athlon Sports put that together this past week.

Athlon included its rankings with Lindy's, Sporting News, ESPN and Phil Steele, and Alabama is ranked either first or second in each of the five publications.

LSU is the next-highest ranked SEC team (Phil Steele had the Tigers at No. 4), and four of the publications had the Tigers in their top 10. Three of annuals (sic) included Tennessee in the top 10. All five the publications have the Volunteers winning the SEC East, and four of the five have Alabama winning the West.

Ole Miss and Georgia were top 25 in at least four of the five while A&M and Florida had top 25 inclusion in one forecast apiece.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/744989852987441152

[jbcarol]

Just-in-Time skepticism of Way-Too-Early Top 25

Edward Aschoff: Look, I think LSU is the most talented team in the SEC, but after last year's late-season collapse and all that drama surrounding Les Miles, I just don't know if I can trust this team to be mentally fit in 2016 if something goes wrong.

David Ching: I'm skeptical about several SEC teams in Schlabach's top 25, but Georgia jumps out as a reach at No. 13.

Sam Khan Jr.: The main reason is it's unclear what to expect from the Aggie offense. Hiring offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone made sense given his background and his relationship with Kevin Sumlin but is the guy pulling the trigger at quarterback (Trevor Knight) going to develop into a consistently good passer?

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/745730119231225858

BruceFeldmanCFB says he wouldn't be surprised if both LSU & Alabama are playing in the @CFBPlayoff

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/746033267669884929

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/746394284488785920

[jbcarol]

Alabama Crimson Tide landed atop four of five preseason prediction lists for the upcoming season.

Steele stands alone when talking about the top spot. He has Florida State, but said that has to do with the schedule more than anything else.

He has Alabama No. 2 in his top 10 but No. 1 in his power poll.

"Florida State's road to the title game would be a lot easier with their toughest game being at home against Clemson. They do play Ole Miss, but they play them in Orlando."

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/747460566801780736

Razorbacks have a pair of stiff challenges in back-to-back October weeks when they host Alabama and Ole Miss. The defending national champion Crimson Tide is likely to be the preseason favorite to win the SEC again and the Hogs had a wild overtime win last season over Ole Miss, a program that is consistently putting itself in the conversation for the SEC West title race -- a place Arkansas is trying to reach --

Trap game: It could be the road game at Auburn on Oct. 22.

Hogs are hoping to climb another rung on the SEC West ladder and into division title contention. This schedule certainly makes it a tough challenge. They have the seventh-toughest strength of schedule in the country according to ESPN's Football Power Index. But if there's a silver lining, it's that their toughest SEC opponents on the slate must go to Fayetteville.

[jbcarol]

What are they saying about Vanderbilt?

Athlon (5th in SEC East — no bowl): "To take the next step — return to a bowl game for the first time since 2013 — Vanderbilt will need to improve significantly on offense."

That was the best outlook for Vandy from five publications.

[jbcarol]

OddsShark 2016 Season win totals

Alabama OVER 9.5 -150
Alabama UNDER 9.5 +120

Auburn OVER 7.0 -115
Auburn UNDER 7.0 -115

Florida OVER 8.0 -125
Florida UNDER 8.0 -105

Georgia OVER 8.5 -140
Georgia UNDER 8.5 +110

LSU OVER 9.5 -165
LSU UNDER 9.5 +135

Tennessee OVER 10.0 +135
Tennessee UNDER 10.0 -165

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/748206340879843328

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/748155205154279424

LSU plays the three teams that it lost against in 2015 -- Ole Miss, Alabama and Arkansas -- in consecutive games again this fall. Ole Miss and Alabama will visit Tiger Stadium on Oct. 22 and Nov. 5 (with an open date between), with a road date against Arkansas to follow on Nov. 12. The Tigers' record against those opponents over the past three seasons is 2-7: 0-3 against Alabama, and 1-2 against both Ole Miss and Arkansas. Though there are big games earlier on the schedule -- namely Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Auburn and defending SEC East champion Florida --

[jbcarol]

We're going to find out what the post-Dak Prescott era at Mississippi State will look like in a hurry. One week after hosting South Alabama [without striker J. Simmons], South Carolina comes to town for a pivotal matchup.

November won't be kind with Texas A&M and Arkansas at home and Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. But still, a path to six wins is there with a manageable nonconference slate and a weak draw from the East (Kentucky, South Carolina). What's more, if Auburn stumbles out of the gate (the Tigers' September is brutal) and talk of Gus Malzahn's job security heats up, there's the chance that the Bulldogs could pick another W at home.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/748636289835094018

Athlon placed Arkansas just outside its preseason Top 25 at No. 26.
Sporting News, which ranked Arkansas No. 23 in the country, said the Razorbacks "could be the breakout team in the SEC West," and noted that the 2016 schedule is set up favorably for Bret Bielema's squad.

[jbcarol]

LSU favored against Bama (and everybody else) in prominent Vegas sportsbook

Golden Nugget lists the Tigers as a favorite throughout the regular season.

    Sept. 3 vs. Wisconsin (-10)
    Sept. 17 vs. Mississippi State (-11)
    Sept. 24 at Auburn (-7)
    Oct. 8 at Florida (-8.5)
    Oct. 22 vs. Ole Miss (-9.5)
    Nov. 5 vs. Alabama (-2.5)
    Nov. 12 at Arkansas (-7.5)
    Nov. 24 at Texas A&M (-6)

[jbcarol]

Adam Sparks ‏@AdamSparks

.@BovadaLV odds to win SEC
Bama 7/4
LSU, UT 7/2
Ga 9/1
Miss 10/1
A&M 16/1
Aub, Fla 18/1
Ark 20/1
UK, Mizz, MissSt 50/1
SCar 66/1
Vandy 100/1

[jbcarol]

SEC West Breakdown: It's a successful season if and only if ...

ALABAMA
It's a successful season if: The Crimson Tide wins the SEC and makes the College Football Playoff for a third time in as many years

LSU
It's a successful season if: The Tigers win at least 10 games, snapping a five-game losing streak against Alabama in the process, and play in one of the New Year's Six bowl games

ARKANSAS
It's a successful season if: The Razorbacks win seven games and earn a third consecutive bowl berth. Why not more?

[jbcarol]

Michael Carvell ‏@Carvell_AJC 28s29 seconds ago

National media picks 2016 SEC football champion, order of finish in exclusive SEC Country poll

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/national-media-picks-champion-order-of-finish-in-sec-country-poll

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/GeorgeSchroeder/status/752490698272890880

[jbcarol]

Golden Nugget's sports book in Vegas has finally released data that can allow one to infer their top 25

No. 1: Alabama
No. 3: LSU
No. 6: Tennessee
No. 10: Ole Miss
No. 12: Georgia
No. 20: Auburn
No. 22: Florida
No. 24: Texas A&M

[jbcarol]

Kevin Brockway ‏@gatorhoops 9h9 hours ago

SEC Network points out Florida playing weakest football schedule in league per FPI.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/DavidPurdum/status/752482793670705152

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Chuck Dunlap ‏@SEC_Chuck 22m22 minutes ago

We'll announce the predicted order of finish and SEC Champion vote results later this afternoon once #SECMD16 concludes.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/JamesCrepea/status/753670664855453696

Auburn was picked to finish 6th in the SEC West by the 331 media members to vote in the annual SEC Media Days poll, which was released Thursday in Hoover.

The Tigers received 890 total points in the poll, a sizeable distance behind Arkansas (1,047 points) and ahead of Mississippi State (518).

No members of the media picked Auburn, which was the media's pick to the conference heading into last season, to win the SEC West division or the conference as a whole this year. By comparison, 246 voters Alabama to repeat as division champs, with 223 picking the Crimson Tide to win the conference title again.

2016 SEC Media poll

WESTERN DIVISION

Alabama (246 first-place votes) 2,220 points

LSU (76) 1,984

Ole Miss (5) 1,479

Texas A&M (3) 1,130

Arkansas (1) 1,047

Auburn 890

Mississippi State 518

EASTERN DIVISION

Tennessee (225) 2,167

Florida (57) 1,891

Georgia (45) 1,860

Kentucky 933

Vanderbilt (2) 810

Missouri 807

South Carolina (2) 800

SEC CHAMPION

Alabama 223

LSU 59

Tennessee 29

Georgia 7

Florida 5

Ole Miss 4

Texas A&M 1

South Carolina 1

Vanderbilt 1

Arkansas 1

[jbcarol]

Josh Kendall ‏@JoshatTheState 18h18 hours ago

South Carolina has been picked to finish last in the SEC East by the media. In other news, the Gamecocks received two first-place votes.

[jbcarol]

Paul Finebaum ‏@finebaum 11m

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/755538351739076610

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/JamesCrepea/status/758034571027968001

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/757999712624488456

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/JasonHButt/status/759130660808384514

The defensive line is young yet talented. Ledbetter was in line to start but will open up the season suspended following a DUI arrest in early July. It's unknown (Ha!) how long past a mandatory two games Ledbetter will be out for.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/aldotcomSports/status/759495915409408003

Departed: A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, D.J. Pettway, Darren Lake

Returning starters: Senior Jonathan Allen, sophomore Da'Ron Payne

Other returning players: Junior Da'Shawn Hand, redshirt senior Dalvin Tomlinson, junior Josh Frazier

Summer arrivals: Freshman Raekwon Davis, freshman Quinnen Williams, junior Jamar King

Bama has to replace two of the top defensive linemen in the country, Robinson and Reed.

No problem.

The four returning scholarship defensive linemen behind the top-four have just three career tackles combined.

Keep an eye on: Frazier.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ZachAbolverdi/status/760610999619772416

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/760839628807077890

Florida fans love to tout their 11-game winning streak over the Volunteers. Tennessee has not beaten Florida since 2005, when Phil Fulmer was coaching in Knoxville. With Tennessee's rise under Butch Jones, this is the year it needs to happen. The game takes place on Sept. 24, which means Florida will not have time to develop a quarterback. It's time for Tennessee to step up...

[jbcarol]

Michael Carvell ‏@Carvell_AJC 57s57 seconds ago

Six SEC schools in Fox Sports' latest Top 25 ranking 
https://www.seccountry.com/sec/six-sec-schools-in-fox-sports-latest-top-25-ranking

Alabama comes in at No. 1. LSU Tigers and star running back Leonard Fournette are the next SEC representatives on the list at No. 4. The Volunteers, who many are expecting to have an impressive season, are the No. 9 team.

Ole Miss (No. 18), Texas A&M (No. 22) and Florida (No. 24) round out the top 25.

[jbcarol]

Adam Sparks ‏@AdamSparks 15h15 hours ago

.@BovadaLV sets the over/under for Vanderbilt at 6 regular-season wins

[jbcarol]

Quick thought on Bovada's latest college football win totals

Every team in the SEC will be bowl eligible if they reach their Bovada win total.

    Alabama – 9.5
    Arkansas – 7
    Auburn – 7.5
    Florida – 8
    Georgia – 9.5
    Kentucky – 6
    LSU – 10.5
    Mississippi – 9.5
    Mississippi State – 9.5
    Missouri – 6
    South Carolina – 6.5
    Tennessee – 10
    Texas A&M – 8
    Vanderbilt – 6

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/761192795625271296

[jbcarol]

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/2016/16/

1 Bama
6 LS
10 Vols
12 OM
16 UG
25 UF

Others Receiving Votes Include (Points)

... Texas A&M (37); ... Arkansas (34); ... Mississippi State (19); ... Auburn (17)

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/761540407666900992

[jbcarol]

Friday Five: Most overrated teams in the 2016 preseason Coaches Poll (Maybe ever)

5. Ohio State

4. Southern California

3. LSU: Remember how well last year went for LSU? Things were so great that many members of the Louisiana state government were trying to get Les Miles fired. They failed, obviously, because nobody has more power in Louisiana than Miles.

Sure, LSU finished 9-3, which isn't bad at all, but those three losses came in consecutive weeks in November after a 7-0 start...

2. Washington

1. Tennessee

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/761985360272433153

[jbcarol]

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 22h22 hours ago

Programming note:
The AP preseason Top 25 will be released Aug. 21 at 2 p.m. ET

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/wholehogsports/status/762648335870103552

[jbcarol]

How Missouri will fare in each game next season

Arkansas – Nov. 25 in Columbia, Mo.

In one aspect at least, this isn't a bad matchup. Arkansas likes to run the ball, while Missouri has the defensive line to match. The Tigers held opponents to just 3.29 yards per rush last season, good enough for 10th in all of college football. Unfortunately, the schedule just works out poorly. Arkansas almost always peaks late in the season. Missouri's game just six days earlier against a physical Tennessee team could have physical repercussions heading into this matchup. It will be competitive, but Arkansas will ride in November once more.

Prediction: Missouri loss (5-7, 2-6 SEC)
Projected record: 5-7, 2-6 SEC; Fourth in the SEC East

Think bowl game would have been on the line.

[jbcarol]

CBS ranks South Carolina as worst SEC team in CBS Sports 128

Gamecocks checked in at No. 100 in the preseason ranking of every team in college football

Gamecocks will open up at Vanderbilt – the second-lowest ranked SEC team by CBS, as the Commodores checked in at No. 89 – on Sept. 1 in Nashville.

The Gamecocks finished 3-9 last season with just one win in SEC play, which came against Vanderbilt.