Who is Your Breakout Player This Year?

[Oklahawg]

Every year a great player appears that many of us didn't see coming. I'm not talking BJ Upton or Felix Hernandez, guys who been touted as future studs since the day they were drafted and are finally poised to hit the bigs full-time. I'm more interested in (a) the established starter who suddenly emerges as a major stud; or, (b) the guy who has bounced around for a while and suddenly blossoms into someone very significant.

My picks:
(A) Eli Marrero, KC; Lyle Overbay, MIL; Cliff Lee, CLE
(B) Calvin Pickering, KC; Juan Cruz, OAK; Antonio Perez, LAD

I want Sean Burroughs,SD, to be in the (A) category but am worried he'll never get there.

Marrero thrives in the low-impact experience known as Royals baseball, getting PT at C, 1B and OF while accumulating 475 ABs. Overbay shifts from the Mark Grace to the Mike Sweeney category at 1B. Lee finally learns to keep guys off base and becomes a top 20 starter in the AL.

Pickering finally gets a chance (and who couldn't in KC?) and shows that he's no worse than Ken Harvey, although the trailer he hauls around is just as big. Cruz becomes a dominant set-up guy like Dotel was for Wagner and K-Rod was for Percival. Perez finally flashes the 15-15 skills he was known for as a Seattle prospect as the Dodgers need some wheels and someone with a hint of a glove.

Chime in.

[razormatt]

Burroughs hit like 2 HR in 500 AB's in 2005.  Don't think so.

Plus I don't know why we can't consider "can't miss" AA and AAA prospects as "break out" players regardless of how they were evaluated in the minors.

There are literally thousands of players over the past 20 years that were "certain" ML contributors at A ball that never made AA.  Then hundreds from AA that never made the show.  Then hundreds from AAA that never showed their ability at the ML level.

I could name a bunch but will not do so until after all drafts are complete of anybody who might possibly read it.

I would pick Bonderman to make huge leaps from 2004 to 2005. 

[returntoglory]

i dont know ifhe is breakout or not, but johnny estrada for the braves was a good cather last year even though they didnt let him play a lot

[hawkeyefan17]

I think Runelvys Hernandez (Kansas City, SP) will have a breakout year. He did not pitch last season but he has good stuff and has done pretty well in the big leagues. Of course the question with him will be can he stay healthy? and how many wins will he get? The answers to these questions remain to be seen but I think Hernandez is one to look out for.

I also think Jerome Williams (San Francisco, SP) Jason Schmidt will obviously be the anchor of this staff and Noah Lowry will be expected to have a big year but I think this kid could have a wonderful year. He's young and seems.

I hate the Atlanta Braves but I really like Adam LaRoche (Atlanta Braves, 1B). He will vastly improve on his numbers from last season .278 13 HR 45 RBI in 324 at bats. This kid looks like he is going to be a real professional hitter in the near future to me.

Just a few players I will be following closely this year.

[WindyCityHog]

Good topic.....

My criteria is more for the "breakout waiting to happen"....

1.  Bonderman (Matt...you basitige )
2.  Nate Robertson  (another Tiger pitcher)
3.  Kazmir  (ok...HUGE upside....but he qualifies in my book)
4.  Michael Restovich
5.  David Wright

I think I'm giving away some of my "darkhorses"...

[razormatt]

it ain't rocket science to look at Bonderman's last 10 starts of 2004 and see some serious potential.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?statsId=7106

Add Detroits improvements in the bullpen and in the lineup, and you're looking at a legitimate 17-20 win candidate if he can stay healthy and become more consistently good. 

Pheralta and Phillips (again) in Cleveland could be effective.

John Gall gets 300 AB's in STL?  He ought to between the days off of Walker and Sanders.  I'd be all for it and wouldn't be shocked with .280/15HR production in that time.

Yadier Molina will surprise some folks this year offensively too.  Bet the kid hits .270 and has an OBP of .340 when it's said and done. He has a nice approach at the plate and will be (barring injury) the Cards backstop for 10 years.  He has an excellent makeup for a catcher, just excellent.

Chris Burke, 2B for Houston should impress, excellent minor league record. 
Does Phelps ever finally deliver for somebody (Tampa now?) Everybody thought he'd hit 30 bombs and drive in 100 for sure, strange fall off there.  See Ben Grieve only Phelps never won ROY.
Does Corey Patterson learn plate discipline to become a superstar or does he not and remain a .320 OBP guy for his career?


But now for another question:  It's just as important to figure out who is going to sharply decline as it is to figure out who will break out.

So, who are your SHARP decline players?

Jeff Kent goes from hitters paradise in the kiddie bandbox of the disastros to the place where hitters die, Dodger Stadium.  JD Drew may have the same fate.  Beltre and Sexson in the non-homer dome of Seattle....do the put up 2004 and 2003 numbers respectively?  Does Pedro's ARM fall off or does cavernous Shea keep him going for a year or two?  Schilling's getting old, does he hold up for 150 innings?  Same with Unit, Kevin Brown, Mussina, hell, all Yankees.  When does Bonds return to human mortality?  Surely he isn't still on the roid cycle, that'll catch up to him at some point, see Giambi 2004.  How about Sheffield?  he's getting up there, that bat WILL slow down.  Sosa continued decline or rebound with new surroundings and batting behind superfreak Tejada?  Continued falloff of Brian Giles in Petco?  Or Ryan Klesko in Petco?  Moises Alou in SF playing for Daddy?  I wouldn't mind pissing on his bitchy head,  he says he uses it for his hands anyway to prevent blisters.  Right Moises, whatever you say, [CENSORED].

Does Jim Edmonds' body fall apart?  How about Larry Walker?  Reggie's an old man too.  Do Wagner's injuries catch up to him?  Is Guardado healthy after not going the surgery route?  Can Dotel really close games, or just strike out everybody that doesn't hit a HR? 

Projecting, my friends, is what makes the best fantasy players what they are.

[WindyCityHog]

Beltre.....I don't see him having anything near the year he had last....

Bonds....the steroid testing, and his age, is going to take its toll....still a good top option, just not 1st round material in my book..

Sosa....see above.

Mike Lowell.....I think he's on the downside.  Had him last year....and he disappointed in the 2nd half.

Mike Sweeney....injuries.

Juan Pierre......No power....and he gets caught a lot at what he's known for...stealing bases.

Griffey.....I gurantee someone is going to take him HIGH....nuts.

[Porquemada]

Albert Pujols.

[Oklahawg]

I was pushing the envelope a bit, looking for sleeper breakouts. Its not a big stretch to see David Wright, Jhonny Peralta and some others really maturing into regular fixtures. Molina is the 4th best catcher who'll likely start lengthy careers:  Joe Mauer (got started last year), Jeff Mathis, and Guillermo Quiroz being the others. I see Molina as #4 on that list offensively, but that may be because the other 3 are plus offensive players.

Matt, do you think the Tigers botched Bonderman's long-term potential by pushing him so quickly 2 years ago?

The Giants eventual big 3 of Schmidt, Williams and Lowry is championship caliber. I had Runelvys the year he came up as a free-agent pick-up for an injured player. Lots of promise, but he could sure use some help from a very shallow bullpen.

Drop-offs and drop-outs: Sosa is done as a front-line player. Jeff Kent will become less than ordinary this year. How long before Pedro's arm falls off? Randy Johnson threw more pitches per start than any other pitcher last year, at age 110 and without any knee cartilage in his plant leg. I don't think Smoltz will be a front-of-the-rotation starter after his time in the bullpen. Braves fans hope I'm wrong.

My Cardinals are aging, aren't they? Any of a half-dozen players on that squad could fade significantly this year. But, the Yankees are still my bet to wake up one morning and realize they are all old and over the hill (save A-Rod) and slip out of the playoffs. Sure hope its this year.

[WindyCityHog]

Yeah....and Walker has been shut down....Yikes....and Ankiel had a horrible session the other day (3 strikes in 23 pitches)...another Yikes.  Cardinals are really starting to concern me....

...and I have a few more ideas about "breakout" players.....I just don't want to cue in RazorMatt (who probably already has an inside on my "sleepers").....He beat my rear so soundly last year, I'm looking for revenge

[hawkeyefan17]

WindyCityHog, I am a die hard Cubs fan but I would love to see Rick Ankiel come back and do well. I would hate to see that happen to anyone. He has a lot of people rooting for him.

How do you think Matt Morris will do this year, he's has to have a good year for the Cardinals if they want to make a run in the playoffs again this year. Does Mulder's last half of last season concern you.

Glad to see baseball is here, can't wait for opening day and talking more baseball on Hogville throughout the year....Hogville is addicting.

[razormatt]

I don't think Detroit ruined Bonderman.

He's obviously a tough kid who has seen lots and lots of losing.  But, he kept taking the ball and giving it a go. 

I will defer to your knowledge of the young catchers. 

[Razorback Jedi]

Bonderman would be a Sophomore in college if he wasn't in the pros. The guy is YOUNG.

[razormatt]

Interesting math.

He was born in October, 1982, about 32 months after I was born (Feb 1980), making him 22 now and having graduated HS 3 years after me.

I graduated in 1998, he in 2001.

If you graduate HS in 2001 and start college then, when are you a sophomore?

Hint:  not 2004-2005.

This is my 7th year of college, and he'd be halfway through his fourth. 

But he is young and was 20 when he broke into the league.

[WindyCityHog]

This is my 7th year of college, and he'd be halfway through his fourth.

7th year....so you're a junior?

[razormatt]

no, I guess this is the 19th grade for me.

I was a SR twice in Fayetteville I loved it there (a little too much) so.

Let's just say I probably have 140 hours of undergraduate hours and over 40 of graduate hours.

Lot of good it's done me thus far, I still work for nothing and live in a dumpy apartment drinking diet high life beer.

[WindyCityHog]

Hey.....nothing wrong with that, Matt.  Last I heard, you were working on that doctorate, and that's good.....you'll be doing quite well one of these days.....

but "diet high life"?.......Get me your address.  I'll send you Old Milwaukee or something...

[razormatt]

I'm a masters student, not a PhD.

[WindyCityHog]

Then you're true calling should be a PhD...in fantasy baseball.

A friend of mine finally graduated college at the grand old age of 35......6 years undergrad, (followed by 3 in the military)....then went to grad school (4 years)....and then spent another 3 on his PhD....in marine biology....and he works for a museum in Chicago now....but he wants to teach....I've recommended to him that he should mentor a class "How to spend 1/3 of your life in school....and Working Beneath Yourself"

[Razorback Jedi]

Interesting math.

He was born in October, 1982, about 32 months after I was born (Feb 1980), making him 22 now and having graduated HS 3 years after me.

I graduated in 1998, he in 2001.

If you graduate HS in 2001 and start college then, when are you a sophomore?

Hint:  not 2004-2005.

This is my 7th year of college, and he'd be halfway through his fourth. 

But he is young and was 20 when he broke into the league.

I stand corrected.

[big dread hog]

I screwed around everywhere before I finally ran out of things to work on, BA in Zoology after sitting out 2 yrs protesting not counting my senior honors course for a FR English requirement in Fayetteville. I had CLEPPED out of one yr at Hendrix and U of A told me that I did not take the CLEP stuff for them so I lost a few credits. I graduated with about 135 undergrad hours, did 4 yrs in New Orleans of which I worked as a marine biologist for the last 16 months before succeeding on a bet with a girlfriend at the time who said I could not go to med school. I told her I was just not interested, but I took the MCAT's and went to UAMS the next fall. I was a favorite interview since I had never applied to med school until I was 28 yrs old. Oh well.

Matt will find a way to be a Jerry Jones and get control of a natural gas basin or something similar and own a pro franchise in anything but basketball. Exxon better watch him closely.

I took some Shedd Aquarium folks on a National Marine Fisheries Groundfish cruise in 1985 when they were naming new species of crabs from the MS River canyons in about 2000 feet of water off the coast of Louisiana.  They were cool dudes, but I was a fish dude working on fish genetics and had more interest in the cutest member of their crew who was a biologist on staff in Chicago. I have high regards for someone that cute and working with invertebrates at the Shedd.

I will not pretend to fall into the breakout decline subterfuge designed to sabotage the gullible come draft time. Let the draft speak for itself.

[UKhog1]

i say david dejesus with kansas city

[Oklahawg]

DeJesus needs to stay healthy. He's got a world of upside.

I saw where Pickering hit a grand slam but was called out for passing the runner at first. Was that during spring ball, or last year? Can't do that much screwing up and get a MLB roster spot.

[Porkahontas]

DeJesus needs to stay healthy. He's got a world of upside.

I saw where Pickering hit a grand slam but was called out for passing the runner at first. Was that during spring ball, or last year? Can't do that much screwing up and get a MLB roster spot.

That was during spring ball. The wife read the article. Something about the runner didn't think it was going over so he went back to tag up, and Pickering knew it was gone. While they were both watching the ball, the runner went to tag, Pickering kept going, and he passed him on the baselines.

That's the Royals for you. Name 5 players from their entire team and you're doing pretty good.

[Oklahawg]

That I know 4 of their starters, the closer and the ex-closer that wants his job back, the 4th outfielder, the DH battle, the 3B battle, and how they acquired the minor league pitcher closest to helping means that I spend WAYYYY too much time on baseball.

Hmmm.

Naw, no such thing as too much time on baseball.

Grienke, Anderson, Hernandez, Tankersley, Affeldt, MacDougal, Long, Pickering vs Harvey, Truby vs Teahan, traded Grimsley to get Denny Bautista, all 6-foot, 7-inches of him...160 pounds, dripping wet. Yikes.

[Porkahontas]

That I know 4 of their starters, the closer and the ex-closer that wants his job back, the 4th outfielder, the DH battle, the 3B battle, and how they acquired the minor league pitcher closest to helping means that I spend WAYYYY too much time on baseball.

Hmmm.

Naw, no such thing as too much time on baseball.

Grienke, Anderson, Hernandez, Tankersley, Affeldt, MacDougal, Long, Pickering vs Harvey, Truby vs Teahan, traded Grimsley to get Denny Bautista, all 6-foot, 7-inches of him...160 pounds, dripping wet. Yikes.

Hernandez and Snyder missed all of last year. Snyder is like 6'8" and they've got Bautista at 6'7". They got a Rule 5 guy from the Cubs, Sisco, who is suppose to be like 6'10" or something like that. Some tall dudes on that staff.

I've been following the Royals big-time for the past 3 years. Last year left a bitter taste in my mouth. Like, who would've ever guessed that Juan Gonzalez would get hurt (again) and miss the entire damn season. For that matter, practically their entire offense spent significant time on the DL, except for Berroa, and he actually got sent to the minors for a couple of weeks late in the season.

Greinke is a freaking stud. Dude is gonna have a huge year, though he may not be a fantasy factor. K's aren't his thing and he won't get any saves, and wins will be hard to come by in KC this year. I'm predicting the offense will average around 2 runs a game probably. Gonna be slim-pickin's for R's this year.

[Razorback Jedi]

Who did the Royals get for Beltran?

[JusticeHawg]

no, I guess this is the 19th grade for me.

I was a SR twice in Fayetteville I loved it there (a little too much) so.

Let's just say I probably have 140 hours of undergraduate hours and over 40 of graduate hours.

Lot of good it's done me thus far, I still work for nothing and live in a dumpy apartment drinking diet high life beer.

To quote Horatio Sanz on SNL.........You da man matt!

I am starting back this coming week.....I have so many hours I should have graduated long ago.......but.....alas......I have no diploma.....seeing as you have a degree I envy you.......I do share you taste in beer though...lol

[Porkahontas]

Who did the Royals get for Beltran?

Mark Teahan, their 3rd baseman of the future, and Mark Wood, a talented pitcher with good upside, both from the A's, and John Buck, the top catching prospect in the Astros organization and a guy who Pena is very high on. He's got the potential to hit 25 HR's and he is very popular among pitchers because he calls a very good game from behind the plate.