Bortles or Brees?

[Wildhog]

We play two QB's in our keeper league, so I'd like to keep one QB from last year.  Brees is old, but the Saints are always going to throw the ball a ton. 

Bortles looks like a good up-and-comer, but with Jax's D getting better, and Gus Bradley being a D minded coach, I think he'll have fewer attempts this year.  Then again, their OC is Greg Olson, who loves to throw the ball around (and was ironically Brees' QB coach at Purdue).

Thoughts?  I'm leaning toward Brees for sheer volume.  Just worried about his health.

[Deep Shoat]

Brees is still a top 5 fantasy QB as long as he is healthy.  Bortles looks like the real deal, but in a more Aikman style.

[bennyl08]

Bortles Passing and Rushing so far in the NFL
G      Att  Comp   Pct   Att/G  Yds           Avg    Yds/G   TD   TD%   Int   Int%   Lng   20+   40+   Sck   SckY   Rate
16   606   355   58.6   37.9   4,428   7.3   276.8   35   5.8   18   3.0   90T   72   11   51   320   88.2
14   475   280   58.9   33.9   2,908   6.1   207.7   11   2.3   17   3.6   63T   37   6   55   345   69.5

G   Att  Att/G   Yds   Avg   Yds/G TD   Lng   1st   1st%  20+   40+   FUM
16   52   3.2   310   6.0   19.4     2   28   23   44.2    2   0   5
14   56   4.0   419   7.5   29.9      0   34   27   48.2    7   0   3

Brees
G   Att   Comp Pct   Att/G   Yds   Avg   Yds/G   TD   TD%   Int   Int%   Lng   20+   40+   Sck   SckY   Rate
15   627   428   68.3   41.8   4,870   7.8   324.7   32   5.1   11   1.8   80T   68   13   31   235   101.0
16   659   456   69.2   41.2   4,952   7.5   309.5   33   5.0   17   2.6   69T   52   10   29   186   97.0
16   650   446   68.6   40.6   5,162   7.9   322.6   39   6.0   12   1.8   76T   67   15   37   244   104.7
16   670   422   63.0   41.9   5,177   7.7   323.6   43   6.4   19   2.8   80T   66   13   26   190   96.3
16   657   468   71.2   41.1   5,476   8.3   342.2   46   7.0   14   2.1   79T   69   11   24   158   110.6

Brees has had a very marked decline in yards and td's over the past 5 seasons with an increase in sacks. Bortles has improved both as the season progresses and b/w seasons. Barring injury, which is likely when you are getting sacked 50+ times a season, I see no reason for a decline in efficiency from Bortles and he will likely improve his stats again as well. Typically, if a player suffers a decline, it will be in the second year of major playing time or after a loss of surrounding talent. Based on the trends for Brees, he's probably looking at a 4600 yard year, 39-31 td's, 35 sacks, probably 15 int's.

Bortle's numbers next year are harder to predict due to less data and he isn't in a steady state yet like Brees is. Having a stronger defense will mean he doesn't have to press as hard and will result in fewer interceptions as he may feel more comfortable playing it safer and punting. I don't think it will result in fewer yards though because you still need to have a 30 point lead in the last half of the fourth before you can really take your foot off the gas. The biggest influence will be what Ivory brings to the table how Yeldon plays in year two. Stronger runners could lead to fewer passing td's in the red zone. Stronger run game will also lead to less sacks or hits, and potentially more extended drives which can cancel the effects of lost yardage due to more run plays.

I'd say Brees is a safer bet next year. Odds are, he will score fewer points week in and week out than Bortles. However, I think he is more likely to play the full season than Bortles is unless he can get those sacks down. Bortles has a much higher ceiling than Brees next year, but how consistent will he be? For me, I prefer the player who will get me 10 points every single week to the guy who will score 200 points over the season, but may get 20 one week and 3 the next.

[TushCrush]

Bortles all day long. Robinson and Hurns continue to improve as has Bortles.