Does the womens softball team get an NCAA bid?

[flippinhogmana]

If so where do you think it might be?  Will it be one and done?  Will the hogs advance?  How far?  Who will we face and how would we be seeded?  What region?  Inquiring minds that support hogs softball are asking these questions...

[psycHOGlogist]

Yes, we'll get a bid. We will be a #2 seed, most likely, in a regional.

I've seen speculation that we'll be sent to Norman (the nearest team that's hosting a regional and not in the SEC) or out West, perhaps Seattle. It's very difficult to predict where the #2 seeds will get sent, given the rules that you cannot be sent to a regional hosted by someone in your conference.

The NCAA is a double elimination tournament, so we can't be one and done. It's possible that we go 0-2-BBQ, but doubtful. The format for regionals is 1 vs 4, 2 vs 3, winners play, losers play, etc., through a double elimination format. The #4 seed teams are usually not very strong. Will we advance to a super-regional? The odds are against us (they're supposed to be), but again, depending on which regional we go to, it's hard to know for sure.

[flippinhogmana]

The NCAA is a double elimination tournament, so we can't be one and done.  I guess I should have known that.  One would think that it would be the same formula as the baseball tournament. 

I had also heard Norman, but I think somewhere else is probably more likely.  If all 13 teams from the SEC get in they have to send some of us somewhere far from home.  I doubted (even if the tournament was one game elimination) that we weren't going to have a better than even chance at winning game one, and thus not one an done. 

[psycHOGlogist]

Any of the Pac-12 teams who are likely hosting is a possibility - UW, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon - as is Baylor, if they are given a shot to host. They might have taken a bit of a hit late because they did not make the Big 12 Championship game. Also, Ole Miss's winning the SEC tournament is very likely going to vault them into the top 16, so they will host a regional. Minnesota, FSU, or Oklahoma also candidates.

The mostly likely "sure thing" regional hosts are:
Florida
Oregon
Arizona
UCLA
Washington
Auburn
Florida State
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
TAMU
LSU
Alabama

And three out of the following: Ole Miss, Baylor, Kentucky, Louisiana, James Madison, and Utah.

I think Ole Miss is the "it" team and gets a regional, so it's most likely two of the remaining 5.

The committee has a history of sending us to the highest possible seed. The last two times we made the NCAA tournament, we were the #2 seed in the regional featuring the overall national #1 seed -- vs California and then the next year vs Oklahoma. If that pattern holds, we could be heading out to Eugene.

FWIW, it does look very likely that all 13 SEC teams will make the tournament.