UF is a winnable home game

[Niels Boar]

If the season had ended at Thanksgiving, UF would have had a high NCAAT seeding with good wins over FSU and Michigan St., but their profile since would be questionable for the NIT.  If not for a miracle shot at NC. State, they would not have beaten a top-100 opponent since November with a home loss to South Alabama.  Losses to Syracuse, UK, and @Vandy aren't exactly bad losses, though.

UF has a very tall, though outside of Tyus not particularly athletic, frontline.  Boynton and Walker are small, quick guards.  UF has almost no depth.  The biggest physical mismatch for us is at the three.  Parsons and Werner are basically 6-8 perimeter players.  Keeping that position off the offensive glass could be a problem.  It would be nice if we could get some minutes from Bryant at the #3.  The big concern for us is that the last time we faced a team with similar size Baylor we didn't fare very well.


On D UF pressures the ball, tries to force TOs, and denies the arc.  Their defensive rebounding is weak and their interior D is mediocre.  That plan is not well suited to stopping us.  A big key for them may be their center Macklin.  He's big and blocks a lot of shots.  Powell and Washington could have some problems with him, though they should have a quickness advantage.  However, he is foul prone.  Their matchups in the interior get considerably worse against us if he is on the bench.  Tyus can guard one of Powell and Washington, but not both.  I don't think Parsons or Werner can handle the other on the blocks. 

UF is a very good perimeter D team.  They will probably be able to find Clarke.  Farmer, Britt, and Welsh will have opportunities to get around slower defenders and hopefully cause some problems with penetration.  Fortson needs to do his thing while limiting his TOs.  If Macklin is out, they have little shot-blocking and can't afford the fouls.  Fortson may be able to finish on drives.  The easiest way for us to lose is to turn the ball over a lot.   

On O UF's Achille's heel is their perimeter shooting.  Boynton and Walker take a lot of treys but are very inconsistent.  They have had some good arc games recently.  My biggest fear is that we are forced to zone to deal with their size, and we let those two get comfortable on the perimeter.  They can shoot UF in the game or out of the game. Nonetheless, UF has done most of their damage inside the arc where our D is at its best.  Our guards need to hit the defensive glass because we will be at a size disadvantage.

The x-factor could be fouls due to the short benches.  Being at home should help in that regard.  Hopefully Fortson's penetration and Washington's run-through-a-brick-wall-to-get-to-the-basket thing will get their interior guys in foul trouble.

[Hogbody]

Hopefully Werner jacks up a bunch of brick 3s like he enjoys doing

[Razorod]

thanks Niels. We really need this game since the next two are on the road. A 2-1 start would really help in a number of ways, one of which might be a bit of confidence for the road. If we lose this one, I don't see us winning either at KY or OM, which would mean a 1-4 start with MSU coming to BWA.

[Niels Boar]

Hopefully Werner jacks up a bunch of brick 3s like he enjoys doing

Overall UF has been terrible from the arc.  Boynton has been every bit as bad as Welsh and Fortson were last year in terms of taking gobs of treys at a very low percentage.  However, UF shot over 40% from the arc against Vandy and LSU.  It is pretty amazing if you look at their game stats.  They either shoot over 40% from the arc or under 30%.  That is true in 13 of 17 games. 

[Lando Calrissian]

Throw the stats out the door with this Hog team.

[Niels Boar]

thanks Niels. We really need this game since the next two are on the road. A 2-1 start would really help in a number of ways, one of which might be a bit of confidence for the road. If we lose this one, I don't see us winning either at KY or OM, which would mean a 1-4 start with MSU coming to BWA.

Agreed. If we can just hold serve at home in January, we might be able to do some damage in February.  The danger is falling apart before the schedule lightens up.

[jst01]

Throw the stats out the door with this Hog team.

TRANSLATION: "unless you want to diss the team, then use the stats that show how bad they are as much as you want"

[catfanNar]

If the season had ended at Thanksgiving, UF would have had a high NCAAT seeding with good wins over FSU and Michigan St., but their profile since would be questionable for the NIT.  If not for a miracle shot at NC. State, they would not have beaten a top-100 opponent since November with a home loss to South Alabama.  Losses to Syracuse, UK, and @Vandy aren't exactly bad losses, though.

UF has a very tall, though outside of Tyus not particularly athletic, frontline.  Boynton and Walker are small, quick guards.  UF has almost no depth.  The biggest physical mismatch for us is at the three.  Parsons and Werner are basically 6-8 perimeter players.  Keeping that position off the offensive glass could be a problem.  It would be nice if we could get some minutes from Bryant at the #3.  The big concern for us is that the last time we faced a team with similar size Baylor we didn't fare very well.


On D UF pressures the ball, tries to force TOs, and denies the arc.  Their defensive rebounding is weak and their interior D is mediocre.  That plan is not well suited to stopping us.  A big key for them may be their center Macklin.  He's big and blocks a lot of shots.  Powell and Washington could have some problems with him, though they should have a quickness advantage.  However, he is foul prone.  Their matchups in the interior get considerably worse against us if he is on the bench.  Tyus can guard one of Powell and Washington, but not both.  I don't think Parsons or Werner can handle the other on the blocks. 

UF is a very good perimeter D team.  They will probably be able to find Clarke.  Farmer, Britt, and Welsh will have opportunities to get around slower defenders and hopefully cause some problems with penetration.  Fortson needs to do his thing while limiting his TOs.  If Macklin is out, they have little shot-blocking and can't afford the fouls.  Fortson may be able to finish on drives.  The easiest way for us to lose is to turn the ball over a lot.  

On O UF's Achille's heel is their perimeter shooting.  Boynton and Walker take a lot of treys but are very inconsistent.  They have had some good arc games recently.  My biggest fear is that we are forced to zone to deal with their size, and we let those two get comfortable on the perimeter.  They can shoot UF in the game or out of the game. Nonetheless, UF has done most of their damage inside the arc where our D is at its best.  Our guards need to hit the defensive glass because we will be at a size disadvantage.

The x-factor could be fouls due to the short benches.  Being at home should help in that regard.  Hopefully Fortson's penetration and Washington's run-through-a-brick-wall-to-get-to-the-basket thing will get their interior guys in foul trouble.

Don't forget that home loss to Richmond

[alaback]

Don't forget that home loss to Richmond

Not the best example.  Richmond has also beaten Mississippi State and Missouri and currently sits at #31 RPI.

[catfanNar]

Not the best example.  Richmond has also beaten Mississippi State and Missouri and currently sits at #31 RPI.

True, but is it ok for Florida to lose at home to them?

[ImMcLovin]

thanks Niels. We really need this game since the next two are on the road. A 2-1 start would really help in a number of ways, one of which might be a bit of confidence for the road. If we lose this one, I don't see us winning either at KY or OM, which would mean a 1-4 start with MSU coming to BWA.

I think we will beat Florida also but to say you seen us having a shot at beating KY or OM?? That's big time dreaming at it's finest!

[GuvHog]

I think we will beat Florida also but to say you seen us having a shot at beating KY or OM?? That's big time dreaming at it's finest!

I'll agree I don't believe the Hogs will beat Kentucky but after watching the last 2 games, I'm beginning to feel a
little better about the Hogs chances of beating Ole Miss in Oxford although I'm Still not predicting it.

[thirtythree]

Niels, since you say that Florida kind of resembles Baylor do you think that Florida may try to run the 1-3-1 zone on us. It was very effective against us when Baylor did it. Granted, we didn't have CF on the court at the time as well. We also couldn't throw it in the ocean from the boat from 10-12 feet out either.

Great job again. waiting on Randy;s now.

[JONAS]

I'll agree I don't believe the Hogs will beat Kentucky but after watching the last 2 games, I'm beginning to feel a
little better about the Hogs chances of beating Ole Miss in Oxford although I'm Still not predicting it.

I think we will beat Florida, but we will have to beat Ole Miss and the officials to win in Oxford.  Do you guys remember Gary Ervin getting rapped and no foul was called? 

[Niels Boar]

Niels, since you say that Florida kind of resembles Baylor do you think that Florida may try to run the 1-3-1 zone on us. It was very effective against us when Baylor did it. Granted, we didn't have CF on the court at the time as well. We also couldn't throw it in the ocean from the boat from 10-12 feet out either.

Great job again. waiting on Randy;s now.

Donovan has been trying to force TOs this season more than he has recently.  They beat Michigan St. with a huge TO margin.  My guess is that they start out in their base pressure D and try to turn over Fortson, deny shots to Clarke, and matchup with our forwards.  If that doesn't work, he may have something specially designed in reserve for us, as spending a lot of energy to deny the trey would seem counter-productive.  As I recall, UF usually falls back into man or a standard 2-1-2 off of fullcourt pressure.  Have I got that right? Anybody?  I wouldn't be surprised if they pack into some sort of zone with their bigs to clog the middle and dare anybody besides Clarke to shoot.  They don't want to foul. Clarke should be able to get some looks if they do that, though.  I hope we can find a way to punish their lack of quickness at the three.  It may be our undoing if we can't exploit that weakness and have trouble keeping them off the offensive glass at the other end.