State of the SEC, Week 1

[pigsooie1000]

I'm only considering conference games due to so many factors from the non-conference season that clutter things up and make it much harder to do.  The varying strength of schedules, different rosters (see Arkansas and Tennessee), the time it takes for new coaches and new players to adjust, etc. make it not worth it to count those in.  Anyway, here are the efficiency ratings and the four factors ratings (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/four_factors/):
Point Per Possession Margin
1.Tennessee +.2
2.Kentucky +.11
3.Vanderbilt +.09
4.Arkansas +.07
5.Mississippi State +.04
6.South Carolina +.04
7.Alabama +.03
8.Ole Miss -.01
9.Florida -.02
10.Georgia -.1
11.Auburn -.19
12.LSU -.22

Top Offenses (Points Per Possession)
1.Vanderbilt 1.19
2.Florida 1.15
3.Kentucky 1.1
4.Arkansas 1.07
5.Mississippi State 1.06
6.Tennessee 1.04
7.South Carolina 1.04
8.Ole Miss 1
9.Georgia 1
10.Alabama .99
11.Auburn .9
12.LSU .87


Top Defenses (Points Per Possession)
1.Tennessee .84
2.Alabama .96
3.Kentucky .99
4.Arkansas 1
5.South Carolina 1
6.Mississippi State 1.02
7.Ole Miss 1.02
8.LSU 1.08
9.Auburn 1.09
10.Georgia 1.1
11.Vanderbilt 1.1
12.Florida 1.17

EFG%

1.Vanderbilt 57%
2.Florida 54%
3.Kentucky 53%
4.Tennessee 52%
5.South Carolina 51%
6.Mississippi State 51%
7.Alabama 49%
8.Arkansas 48%
9.Ole Miss 48%
10.Georgia 47%
11.Auburn 45%
12.LSU 45%


TO Rate
1.Arkansas 17%
2.Vanderbilt 17%
3.Ole Miss 17%
4.Florida 17%
5.Mississippi State 18%
6.South Carolina 18%
7.Alabama 19%
8.Kentucky 19%
9.Tennessee 20%
10.Auburn 22%
11.LSU 23%
12.Georgia 25%

OR%
1.Georgia 40%
2.Vanderbilt 39%
3.Kentucky 36%
4.Arkansas 36%
5.Florida 34%
6.South Carolina 33%
7.Mississippi State 33%
8.Tennessee 31%
9.Auburn 29%
10.LSU 27%
11.Ole Miss 26%
12.Alabama 35%

FT Rate (FTM/FGA)
1.Vanderbilt .38
2.Mississippi State .34
3.Kentucky .32
4.Tennessee .27
5.Florida .25
6.Georgia .23
7.Ole Miss .22
8.LSU .19
9.Arkansas .18
10.South Carolina .17
11.Auburn .16
12.Alabama .14

Defensive EFG%
1.Tennessee 41%
2.Ole Miss 45%
3.Mississippi State 46%
4.Alabama 46%
5.Kentucky 48%
6.Georgia 49%
7.LSU 51%
8.Florida 53%
9.South Carolina 54%
10.Vanderbilt 55%
11.Arkansas 57%
12.Auburn 59%

DR%
1.Vanderbilt 72%
2.Auburn 71%
3.Arkansas 71%
4.Tennessee 70%
5.Alabama 69%
6.South Carolina 69%
7.Kentucky 68%
8.Georgia 68%
9.Ole Miss 67%
10.Mississippi State 66%
11.LSU 63%
12.Florida 63%

Def TO Rate
1.Tennessee 26%
2.South Carolina 24%
3.Vanderbilt 23%
4.Kentucky 22%
5.Auburn 22%
6.Arkansas 20%
7.Ole Miss 19%
8.Alabama 19%
9.LSU 17%
10.Mississippi State 16%
11.Georgia 15%
12.Florida 15%




Alright, some things to notice.
1.Our defense is rated 4th thanks to an good job on the defensive boards.  Opponents have only gotten 17 offensive boards against us which has allowed us to still have a respectable D despite consistently giving up open shots.
2.Our offense is rated 4th because we have been middle of the pack in everything but right at the top in avoiding turnovers.  I was surprised at that number most likely because Fortson's turnovers always stand out in my mind.
3.Florida and Vandy both seem to care less about playing D but are scoring at incredibly high rates (Vandy doing a better job at both ends of the court).
4.Tennessee's +.2 per possession is so high thanks to the 81-55 blowout against Auburn (which Auburn actually led by 12 at one point).  I would expect it to come back to the pack at some point.
5.LSU on the other hand might be that bad.  I am impressed with their effort, but they are a bad basketball team.
6.The 3 best teams are in the East but I don't know how to rank them.  Vandy's offense and Tennessee's defense are both clearly the class of the league but Kentucky is good at both ends and has more elite players.
7.I think we could move into that group as the season moves on.  If Washington continues to play at the high level he played at today and Fortson can cut out the bottom 10% of his terrible shots we might have a 10 or 11 win season in us.


Alright, hope this post was worth reading I hope some of you out there can enjoy these cool numbers.  I will try to put out an update on these after every week if I can find the time.

[thirtythree]

Great job. +1.

[ishankem]

all I know is that the Hogs are in second place in the west at 1-1

enjoy it while it lasts

[Biggus Piggus]

Wish you had waited a day.  The numbers hadn't been updated for Saturday's games.

If you look at full season stats, the only SEC teams not in the national top 50 for defense are Arkansas, Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss.  A bunch of strong defensive teams in the league.

Not sure how Pomeroy captures stats.  Here's the Hogs' rebounding results through two SEC games:

Offensive
at MSU 18 of 48
vs Bama 12 of 32
Total 30 of 80, 37.5%

Defensive
at MSU 19 of 31
vs Bama 28 of 35
Total 47 of 66, 71%

[pigsooie1000]

haha of course that is how DR% should be counted.  For some reason I didn't think of that.  thanks for the correction.  The numbers up top are fixed now and look much more reasonable.  We drop to 3rd with a 71% DR rate now. 

Also all stats are current as of the LSU-Florida game I input the numbers from the box score into my own spreadsheet instead of waiting on KenPom's numbers.  I can't find a place on his site for conference-only numbers which I have here.