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  • #10151 by hawgmasta on 05 Sep 2016
  • FSU  -4.5  2u

    Where did you get -4.5 I'm jealous.
  • #10152 by WILL CLINTON on 05 Sep 2016
  • FSU -4
  • #10153 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 05 Sep 2016
  • Sorry I'm late but I went ole miss +5.5
  • #10154 by McKdaddy on 05 Sep 2016
  • Where did you get -4.5 I'm jealous.


    betUS
  • #10155 by hawgmasta on 05 Sep 2016
  • Well I'm feeling pretty dumb about now, FSU looks bad for all the hype they were getting.
  • #10156 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 05 Sep 2016
  • Not gonna say :)
  • #10157 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 05 Sep 2016
  • Well I'm feeling pretty dumb about now, FSU looks bad for all the hype they were getting.

    Easy grasshopper
  • #10158 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 05 Sep 2016
  • Sorry I'm late but I went ole miss +5.5

    Just quit
  • #10159 by gotyacovered on 06 Sep 2016
  • it was a weekend of dogs for me... and anyone who knows me personally, knows i love dogs and money lines and didnt have one money line bet!!! shame on me.

    South alabama +31 outright winner
    Wisconsin +14 outright winner
    BYU +1 outright winner
    Texas +4.5 outright winner

    my loser was kstate/stanford over... kstate qb was a disappointment and on top of that he got knocked outta game... twice.

    only thing that has me hot and bothered (so far) this week is south florida... and its pretty much a scheduling thing... NIU plays tripple OT game at 7200' and until 3:35am (assuming their 'football' day started at noon... they were in football mode for a really long time) then fly back across time zones only to turn around in a couple days and head to Florida to play in 90+ temps with high humidity.
  • #10160 by DadVader1 on 06 Sep 2016
  • Like the last few years, I'll only count "my" picks in keeping track of % & $, and won't count my tails of Jeff and others.  Spreadsheet picks went 2 for 3 for 67% & +1/8 unit.  Still way too soon to do much with the power rating systems, but they're off to a decent start.  Of the 70+ power rating systems that I track, 11 won ats in week 1, with 2 hitting at around 60%.  Those numbers should come down over the next few weeks, but I expect 6 or 7 to beat the spread over the season.  In general, in week 1, road teams and dogs both hit at or around 53% and road dogs hit at about 56%.  The first three weeks are usually pretty screwy, so don't put much trust in those trends holding up.
  • #10161 by hogsanity on 06 Sep 2016
  • my early leans this week are:

    louisville -14.5
    ohio st -29
    umass +16
    oki st -21
    SO AL +13
    Oregon -24.5

    Wont play all of these, but those are what I am looking at right now.
  • #10162 by hawgmasta on 06 Sep 2016
  • Easy grasshopper

    You got me I overreacted; actually pretty much quit watching until my buddy called me after FSU took the lead. Patience is a virtue.
  • #10163 by hawgmasta on 06 Sep 2016
  • Quote from: DadVader1 link=topic=419577.msg10420730#msg10420730 date=147317908
     The first three weeks are usually pretty screwy, so don't put much trust in those trends holding up.
    [/quote

    Yeah sometimes the first few weeks I seriously just randomly pick all the games within a touchdown spread. It's usually better than my thought out and over analyzed guesses.
  • #10164 by hogsanity on 06 Sep 2016
  • Outside of a few teams like Wake and Mizzu, with the state of defense in college football, I'd take the over in just about every game played.

    Did anyone ever think they would see a time when FSU would give up points like they did last night, or ND would give up points like they did Sunday.
  • #10165 by gotyacovered on 06 Sep 2016
  • Outside of a few teams like Wake and Mizzu, with the state of defense in college football, I'd take the over in just about every game played.

    Did anyone ever think they would see a time when FSU would give up points like they did last night, or ND would give up points like they did Sunday.

    And BYU... Or penn st/Pitt (who play this week).

    I love unders and dogs, generally speaking. But it does seem that way... Not sure if perception is reality though. Wonder if it'll become like the NFL... As I understand it, they actually build in points bc the over is so popular.
  • #10166 by hawgmasta on 06 Sep 2016
  • Outside of a few teams like Wake and Mizzu, with the state of defense in college football, I'd take the over in just about every game played.

    Did anyone ever think they would see a time when FSU would give up points like they did last night, or ND would give up points like they did Sunday.

    Yeah if you have two good offenses and they're not playing Alabama. Then I would say take the over 90% of the time.
  • #10167 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 06 Sep 2016
  • #10168 by OnYourToes on 06 Sep 2016
  • Lines I'm looking at now, some I'm playing, some just looking.  A lot of Home Opening plays that look tasty, some based on coaching story lines, some based on travel.

    Vandy-4.5 V South Carolin - Loss

    Oregon St +13 @ Minn - Won

    Stanford - 15.5 v KState - Loss

    Michigan - 40 v Hawaii - Hard lean - Ended up playing - Won

    Ohio St -27.5 v Bowling Green - Hard lean - Played Won

    Washington - 26.5 v  Rutgers - Hard lean- Played Won

    Alabama -11.5 v USC - Won

    Clemson -7.5 @ Auburn - Playing - Won

    Notre Dame -3.5 @ Texas - Hard lean - Couldn't pull the trigger on this one, good thing too.

    Ole Miss +4.5 v Florida St - Interesting - Played Ole Miss, and it was a very wonderful first half.  Then they started the second half. . . Loss


    My first weekend results
    Won 6 games
    Lost 3 games

    Good weekend!
  • #10169 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 06 Sep 2016
  • On Yanks money line 67.00 to win 100 and over 9 for 100
  • #10170 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 06 Sep 2016
  • Went 5-3 on the week +32 units. Thank you TIDE
  • #10171 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 06 Sep 2016
  • Never do this, but on Da Ville -14 / 3 dimes. Bought the hook
  • #10172 by husker71 on 06 Sep 2016
  • can somebody please find the thread from last season where MSM(??) was betting I think $500 per week against Arkansas and for Louisville.  Every week!!   It may have been $1000 each but anyway it was a classic thread maybe should be on the Mount Rushmore of threads
  • #10173 by onebadrubi on 06 Sep 2016
  • can somebody please find the thread from last season where MSM(??) was betting I think $500 per week against Arkansas and for Louisville.  Every week!!   It may have been $1000 each but anyway it was a classic thread maybe should be on the Mount Rushmore of threads

    I believe that was a few years back, but it stayed around somewhere. 
  • #10174 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 06 Sep 2016
  • can somebody please find the thread from last season where MSM(??) was betting I think $500 per week against Arkansas and for Louisville.  Every week!!   It may have been $1000 each but anyway it was a classic thread maybe should be on the Mount Rushmore of threads


    MSM?
  • #10175 by onebadrubi on 06 Sep 2016

  • MSM?

    He was a Bobby lovng jeff long hating poster awhile back that wanted nothing else except to see this program fail.  He got the ban hammer rather quick, but before he could leave swore to bet $500 on daville and 500 against Arkansas in every game. His record was AWFUK.
  • #10176 by mckinneyhog5 on 07 Sep 2016
  • 2-0 for the year..
    FSU -4 1/2 and over 57 1/2
    Trying to pick one game a week and go heavy on a parlay.
  • #10177 by hogsanity on 07 Sep 2016
  • On Yanks money line 67.00 to win 100 and over 9 for 100

    That turned out well for you
  • #10178 by widespreadsooie on 07 Sep 2016
  • He was a Bobby lovng jeff long hating poster awhile back that wanted nothing else except to see this program fail.  He got the ban hammer rather quick, but before he could leave swore to bet $500 on daville and 500 against Arkansas in every game. His record was AWFUK.

    It was two seasons ago. He was claiming to bet $500 every week on Auburn, Louisville, and whoever the Hogs were playing- no matter the line. He was down a ton by week 4 or 5 if he was telling the truth. Dude was being a fool.
  • #10179 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 07 Sep 2016
  • He was a Bobby lovng jeff long hating poster awhile back that wanted nothing else except to see this program fail.  He got the ban hammer rather quick, but before he could leave swore to bet $500 on daville and 500 against Arkansas in every game. His record was AWFUK.


    I am as most know a Bobby loving Long hater, and still am.  Got myself banned several times as most here know.  I simply thought as poor as petrino's decison making off the field was thay firing him was a worse decision.

    I certainly dont want the program to fail, but i dont share the current optimsm most currently have.
  • #10180 by onebadrubi on 07 Sep 2016

  • I am as most know a Bobby loving Long hater, and still am.  Got myself banned several times as most here know.  I simply thought as poor as petrino's decison making off the field was thay firing him was a worse decision.

    I certainly dont want the program to fail, but i dont share the current optimsm most currently have.

    Nothing wrong with your viewpoint either, but the msm dude was wanting it to fail to tell long I told you so. He was just a troll and if he wagered like he promised he absolutely lost his arse.

    By the way, for the intentions of this thread, I think bielemas ats record is much better than Petrino's. Not that anyone would count such a record or anything.
  • #10181 by WooPig90 on 07 Sep 2016
  • Thoughts on Carolina -3 tomorrow?
  • #10182 by onebadrubi on 07 Sep 2016
  • Thoughts on Carolina -3 tomorrow?

    Love it just like I loved Clemson -7
  • #10183 by hogsanity on 07 Sep 2016
  • Thoughts on Carolina -3 tomorrow?

    IT looks so much like a sucker bet that maybe it isn't. Denver breaking in a new QB. Carolina wanting a measure of revenge.
  • #10184 by hawgmasta on 07 Sep 2016
  • Took middle Tennessee at +5.5 against vandy. Vandy doesn't look like they could score in a scrimmage. Middle is a solid team and will be amped.
  • #10185 by onebadrubi on 07 Sep 2016
  • I look at Carolina just like the KC royals last year. They will be improved on offense and just as good on D. You don't think cam wants to face that D again? 
  • #10186 by jkstock04 on 08 Sep 2016
  • Thoughts on Carolina -3 tomorrow?
    Looks like the lemming bet to me. Not saying it won't hit but these are the types of lines that make me skeptical that Vegas wants even money on both sides and doesn't try and sucker people into something they know the general public doesn't. I haven't even looked but I'm going to assume 90% or more of the public will be on Carolina -3.

    Like I said, not saying it won't hit but I've seen that movie a few times and usually I'm on the wrong side of it.

    On the stat side of it and closer look I actually think there is a stronger argument for Denver +3. Everyone is making a huge deal about this no name qb and that being a deal breaker...but the fact is last year the Broncos quietly won the super bowl with overall poor qb play. They were worst in the league with 23 interceptions and had the 2nd worst rating. This new guy probably can't get much worse.

    Broncos are still loaded on defense and have all of that badass secondary coming back. The panthers O-line got embarrassed in super bowl and I won't be surprised if they struggle again tonight...a lot of people say the thin air in Denver affects the visiting teams.

    We'll see. Games that look like obvious locks I'm always skeptical of. Like I said mainly because I've been on the wrong side so many times and I've learned my lesson...that there is usually more than meets the eye.

    Just checked, Looks like my book has the juice on Denver at -120 and Carolina +100. Shocker lol





  • #10187 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 08 Sep 2016
  • Not touching the nfl game tonight. If someone put a gun to.my head i would.play Broncos +3
  • #10188 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 09 Sep 2016
  • Never do this, but on Da Ville -14 / 3 dimes. Bought the hook


    By never do this i meant bet a game that far in advance
  • #10189 by DadVader1 on 09 Sep 2016

  • By never do this i meant bet a game that far in advance

    I go back and forth on this.  College-age kids doing stupid college-age kid stuff adds some risk to wagering early in the week.  On the other hand, from my reading, it's my understanding that lines are generally softer early in the week, and by Saturday morning you are competing against investors with IT departments. 

    The data from thepredictiontracker.com includes opening lines and current lines.  I hope to find time at some point this season to run some numbers to see how my picks fare against early lines vs. late lines.
  • #10190 by gotyacovered on 09 Sep 2016
  • i bet early a lot...

    South Florida -14 vs NIU... It's pretty much a schedule thing... NIU plays triple OT game at 7200' and until 3:35am (assuming their 'football' day started at noon... they were in football mode for a really long time) then fly back across time zones only to turn around in a couple days and head to Florida to play in 90+ temps with high humidity. body clocks are all screwed up with less recover time. now, its sitting at -15 and the closer it gets the more south florida will get bet (IMO) bc they are (were-last year) a trendy pick.

    my other game i wanted to play early in the week was washington st... i didnt... they were sitting on 12.5/+350 and i had thoughts of 13/375. it is a late game and it has been my experience that these lines will hold pretty steady and the faves will get hammered late by the pub. now the line is sitting on 10.5/+320... didnt expect that AT ALL and seeing 12.5 is unlikely and the +13/+375 i was hoping for 4 days ago is a pipe dream.

    i played the bears +6 a month ago when the jj watt news broke (out at least first 2 reg season games). the books moved slow so i took advantage... the line got as low as +3... looked brilliant until wednesday when ed werder was reporting jj watt will play week 1. now (last i saw) lines back to where it started.

    beating the books is largely being able to take advantage of market conditions. the people who i personally know (not touts selling picks) who actually make money gambling, know when to make a move, or not... and when the screw up (see my bears bet) they know how to buy back (hedge).

    anyone looked at air force -18? georgia st got smoked in the 2nd half against BALL STATE. i think AF will jump out in front and Georgia St. will lay down for 2nd half prepping for the beating that will follow next weekend (playing wisconsin). also, noteworthy... AF is OFF next week.
  • #10191 by WooPig90 on 09 Sep 2016
  • Luckily took Broncos +3 but pushed on  the over. Looking at the louisville game today, not sure on -15
  • #10192 by Green_Lanternn on 09 Sep 2016

  • By never do this i meant bet a game that far in advance

    Jeff, would you still like this pick at -15?
  • #10193 by WooPig90 on 09 Sep 2016
  • Teasered Syracuse +20.5 and the Over at 63
  • #10194 by jkstock04 on 09 Sep 2016
  • Took Louisville -14 for 5 units got it locked in this morning.
  • #10195 by Green_Lanternn on 09 Sep 2016
  • Louisville now up to -17
  • #10196 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 09 Sep 2016
  • Just quit

    I know right? This has been a horrible start.

    Trying to make some back tonight....Louisville -17/o65 parlay
  • #10197 by Otis on 09 Sep 2016
  • Just went to reload my bovada account and transaction didn't go thru. Worked fine with the same credit card last year. Any ideas on how to deposit now? Would rather not pay the fees to wire the money.
  • #10198 by Green_Lanternn on 09 Sep 2016
  • Just went to reload my bovada account and transaction didn't go thru. Worked fine with the same credit card last year. Any ideas on how to deposit now? Would rather not pay the fees to wire the money.


    Call credit card company and let them know you are making an international transaction and it should go through.  Take off the international hold for the next day or two and you should be able to have it go through
  • #10199 by WILL CLINTON on 09 Sep 2016
  • Louisville -10 1h
    Louisville -17
  • #10200 by Otis on 09 Sep 2016

  • Call credit card company and let them know you are making an international transaction and it should go through.  Take off the international hold for the next day or two and you should be able to have it go through

    Thanks, will try that
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