Welcome to Hogville!      Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Chavis new DC

Started by FrJoseph, December 27, 2017, 09:09:08 pm

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Hawginj

Quote from: HF#1 on December 28, 2017, 09:20:13 am
Do you think Sumlin would allow Chavis to bench Myles Garrett or even suspend him for an entire game for taking a play off?
No I don't nor should he we arent talking about a play if we were how would that be a problem? Garrett's knock was he would take many plays off that kinda proves hes not a every down player hes just a rush specialist. Point being if Chavis is the coach people claim he is why would he allow his players the slack time in a game? No coach would no boss would allow that type of behavior when its time to get things done.

Pigsknuckles

Quote from: Dark Helmet Hog on December 27, 2017, 11:14:14 pm
If true, good hire. There is not a person out there that will make everyone happy.

Have heard it said that in a negotiation, if nobody walks away from the table completely satisfied, then it is probably a good deal. Hope that holds true here.
"the ox is slow, but the Earth is patient"

 

Science Fiction Greg

Goodness I'm glad some of you people have absolutely no say in anything regarding this football program.
I spend all my time playing Trackmania, and various board games. You might remember me as Corndog7 or PossibleOatmeal.
Twitter sucks now. I deleted my account. I mostly just use TikTok now.

ricepig

Quote from: Pigsknuckles on December 28, 2017, 09:33:13 am
Have heard it said that in a negotiation, if nobody walks away from the table completely satisfied, then it is probably a good deal. Hope that holds true here.

Lol, in every farm I've bought I was satisfied when the deal was finalized. It was about  week later when I got buyer's remorse and wondered how I was going to pay for it.

Earth Hog Fan

Quote from: bennyl08 on December 27, 2017, 11:47:03 pm
Scoring defense: 10     11 11 2 12 21 4      28 39 81

Rush defense: 12     46 42 5 9 36 47        108 80 64
Pass defense: 4       29 10 8 28 13 3          4 91 66
Total defense: 3       26 12 2 8 15 9          51 90 63

TFL:               45     36 21 3 20 86 61        3 7 29
Sacks:           66     84 18 12 16 54 103     24 17 7
INT:              21     40 11 12 12 73 84       71 49 65
Fumble force: 113   80 1 14 89 88 69        3 13 9
Fumbles rec:  118  114 21 36 14 76 50      89 15 23

3rd down %: 45      39 16 19 12 53 31       16 58 31
4th down %: 64      73 65 49 93 35 47       2 13 98
RZ score %:  31      60 55 106 54 46 34     62 13 117

Long scrimmage plays: 10 22 10 29 2         49 113 36
(10 yards, 30 yards)    11 4 4 14 25           54 92 86

Scoring defense with a good program Chavis is consistently near the top 10. At the aggies, he dropped considerably and became worse as his time there went on. Is he slipping in his old age, did the talent level drop, or did offenses become harder to stop scoring? We should not expect this to be a top 10 unit from him, but somewhere on the right side of a 50 ranking is reasonable.

Yardage defense: Don't expect us to be able to stop the run. He wasn't very good at that at LSU and has been atrocious at Texas A&M trying to stop the run. Passing defense he's is definitely better at as he was a couple of times top 10 and usually top 30. He started off well at the aggies, but precipitously dropped. Again, is he slipping as a coach? Was there a sharp drop in talent to work with? Was he not happy there and the decreased production a sign of of trouble among the coaching staff?

Impact plays: Can vary wildly from one year to the next, but he's typically pretty good. This is one area where he hasn't gotten worse over time at the aggies in terms of lost yardage plays. Given the defensive talent we are oft to have, we should expect to be much improved in lost yardage plays even next year. Interceptions can largely be dependent on personnel. He's shown in the past he can get them consistently, but hasn't been better than 49th in 5 seasons. We have some great players to work with though so I'd expect us to at least on the right side of 50. Fumbles do require a bit of luck. However, overall, he's improved at coaching the defense to force fumbles (save for this most recent season) and his team isn't terrible at getting fumbles either, but again, that's not an easy stat to be consistent in.

Efficiency: Not phenomenal here. Third downs, he has 4 seasons over the past decade in the top 20 at getting off the field on third downs and even when he isn't top 20, he's usually top 50 or not much worse. 4th downs's aren't very good though and usually a 50 ranking puts you at 50/50. Save for the first two years with the aggies, you usually have at least about a 50/50 chance of giving up the fourth down. RZ defense isn't great either, which stands in stark contrast to the scoring defense. Despite having often a top 10 scoring defense overall, if you get into the redzone vs Chavis, you will score. This could partly explain why we've been so good against them in that we can usually move the ball b/w the 20's but struggle sometimes to score.

Chunk plays: Only goes from 2010 while the others start in 2008. With a few exceptions, Chavis is usually even better at stopping big chunk plays (30+ yards) than 10+ yards. Meaning that if you do rip off a big play, it isn't likely to go the distance. This will be good for us. Though, 2/3 seasons at the aggies he's been worse with 30+ plays by ranking than 10+ plays and particularly the most recent season. Overall, he was very good at stopping those at LSU, but his best seasons have only been mediocre at Texas am with some very bad defenses in terms of chunk plays. We should probably not expect the top 20 defense in this area and the results at A&M are more likely to be what we experience here with Chavis.

Overall, my big question is why the results in texas got worse over time, and why the last year was so bad. If I was hiring him, I'd want to know if that was the result of him slipping in older age, him not recruiting at aggies, or if it was discord and disconnect. His best work has come with a more Bielema type offense at LSU and he had some major regression working with a faster paced offense in Texas which is slower than what we are allegedly going to attempt.

Not a terrible hire by any stretch and potential to be a great hire. I like that he is older to counter the youth and inexperience of our HC. However, there are a lot of red flags with this hire as well. Until proven otherwise, I'll trust that the coaching staff checked out those flags and found them to not be a big problem.

And Certainly NOT even close to being the best in the nation!
I had never heard of Musselman. But he's a teacher, demands discipline and builds from the defensive end first. I want our football coach to be just like him."

colbs

Quote from: Hawginj on December 28, 2017, 09:19:06 am
Chavis was the boss of the defense right? Lets put it this way you work for a company there is 1 main boss and 2 foremen each foreman is over their own group of employees,  sometimes the employees dont show, dont do their jobs who do said employees answer to? Hint its not the boss.
None of us really know everything was handled there.  I do think it's probably a little different than your situation above.  I've seen many HCs be the one to decide suspensions for players, suggest a certain player plays, etc.  One thing is certain though.  His defenses at LSU and Tennessee were tough and at A&M they were soft.  Was that more of a culture thing, players, Chavis getting older, or something else?

Hawginj

Quote from: colbs on December 28, 2017, 09:37:26 am
None of us really know everything was handled there.  I do think it's probably a little different than your situation above.  I've seen many HCs be the one to decide suspensions for players, suggest a certain player plays, etc.  One thing is certain though.  His defenses at LSU and Tennessee were tough and at A&M they were soft.  Was that more of a culture thing, players, Chavis getting older, or something else?
Idk either it could have alot to do with Sumlin it could be just about anything, the things we do know the defense at A&M were soft and apparently they couldn't recruit to fix any of it, but just like anyone else he'll have his chance to show what he can do.

RazorWhacker

Quote from: NotSoFastMyFriend on December 28, 2017, 08:40:15 am
A squirrel would be an upgrade over last year and yes I mean a dead one.

A dead one that was run over and flattened in the road, or a dead one that was shot through the head with a .22?

I think there's a difference and I would like clarification, please.

WaltonCollege

Chavis can roll Paul Rhoads and Robb Smith into a hand rolled cigar and smoke em. The chief is the best DC this program can get their hands on, we should be ecstatic about this hire. Maybe now we will play with violence and have some head hunters on defense, not the flag football we're used to.

opineonswine

Quote from: WaltonCollege on December 28, 2017, 10:00:38 am
Chavis can roll Paul Rhoads and Robb Smith into a hand rolled cigar and smoke em. The chief is the best DC this program can get their hands on, we should be ecstatic about this hire. Maybe now we will play with violence and have some head hunters on defense, not the flag football we're used to.

Why can't the most casual observer of college football see this?  Some people's reaction is a total head scratcher. 

Rustyhog

Quote from: tusked on December 27, 2017, 09:48:52 pm
I wish him all the razorback luck in the world....he's going to need it.

(This is meant to be tongue in cheek but still true)
RAZORBACK LUCK???? Have you WATCHED a Razorback game since 19 whatever? We have the WORST "luck" on the planet!

Pig in the Pokey

Quote from: Earth Hog Fan on December 28, 2017, 09:36:25 am
And Certainly NOT even close to being the best in the nation!
kindly stfu. He is a Hall of Fame coach.
You must be on one if you think i aint on one! ¥420¥   «roastin da bomb in fayettenam» Purspirit Gang
@Slackaveli

RaisinHog

Quote from: WaltonCollege on December 28, 2017, 10:00:38 am
Chavis can roll Paul Rhoads and Robb Smith into a hand rolled cigar and smoke em. The chief is the best DC this program can get their hands on, we should be ecstatic about this hire. Maybe now we will play with violence and have some head hunters on defense, not the flag football we're used to.

You sir are correct.. why anyone wouldnt want too give the chief a try is beyond me

 

Tim Harris

This proves without a doubt Hogville will never be able to agree on anything.  Obviously results on the field will ultimately be what he should get judged on but on paper this the best hire I can remember us making.

Pork Twain

I always find it humorous that so many new posters pop with so much negativity but the positive posters just go with the flow.  Lots of retreads here boys, lots of retreads.  Before one rough stretch at A&M, most Arkansas fans would have gotten their panties wet if we signed Chavis.  Even Mr Negativity Hogcard.  Of course he would never post that online.  He would only go on and on about the bad side of it.  I guess it is just all part of being an Auburn fan on an Arkansas board.
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

qbrew

Quote from: ricepig on December 28, 2017, 09:14:46 am
I didn't say it was the truth, just that it is on every message board, probably on one about Chevy truck owners, lol.

I'm on 6 of those, nary a word about Chavis.

Pork Twain

Quote from: ricepig on December 28, 2017, 09:14:46 am
I didn't say it was the truth, just that it is on every message board, probably on one about Chevy truck owners, lol.
Have you learned nothing from Hogville and all of those that are in the know and so quick to share their pearls of wisdom?
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

onebadrubi

Quote from: Hawginj on December 28, 2017, 09:53:33 am
Idk either it could have alot to do with Sumlin it could be just about anything, the things we do know the defense at A&M were soft and apparently they couldn't recruit to fix any of it, but just like anyone else he'll have his chance to show what he can do.

Well, Texas A&M largest recruiting base is Texas.  Look at the similar problems UT has been having since Brown left... draw any correlation?  It appears there is one.

hogcards

Quote from: Pork Twain on December 28, 2017, 10:27:35 am
I always find it humorous that so many new posters pop with so much negativity but the positive posters just go with the flow.  Lots of retreads here boys, lots of retreads.  Before one rough stretch at A&M, most Arkansas fans would have gotten their panties wet if we signed Chavis.  Even Mr Negativity Hogcard.  Of course he would never post that online.  He would only go on and on about the bad side of it.  I guess it is just all part of being an Auburn fan on an Arkansas board.

I'm not being "negative" about it for the sake of being negative.  After examining what Morris has assembled so far, the only thing I've disliked is the mention of Chavis.  Keep this guy away from the program.
"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

tusksincolorado

Quote from: oldhawg on December 27, 2017, 10:05:21 pm
Probably so.  Here's what I came up with:

2017 Maserati GranTurismo MC Centennial Coupe : $165,627.

2017 Mercedes-Benz AMG GT S: $131,200.

That's why Joe said "my Maserati goes one eighty five"...
Screw it! I'm an old angry male, live with it!

Redhogs

Quote from: Hawginj on December 28, 2017, 09:25:25 am
I'm not negative about it. Im in wait and see mode. Is he a very good coach? Past history says yes, more recent history says hes not as good as he once was. We dont know the reasons why things have slipped or why past fanbases laugh at and ridicule the new team he goes to, reading inbetween the lines there is truth on both sides of the debate. I guess we will find out soon.
Somebody gets it.......exactly right.
Will I live long enough to see us win again? Will any of us?

Hawginj

Quote from: onebadrubi on December 28, 2017, 10:38:05 am
Well, Texas A&M largest recruiting base is Texas.  Look at the similar problems UT has been having since Brown left... draw any correlation?  It appears there is one.
could very well be it hasn't hurt TCU, OSU, Oklahoma or Baylor ( before the scandal).

RedyorNot

Quote from: BM41 on December 28, 2017, 09:00:20 am
Chavis had three problems at A&M.

1. Quality of depth.  Their first string is talented.  But, they wear down being on the field so much.  Chavis did not have enough quality depth to give the first string a rest.
2. A&M Offense.  Too many 3 and outs, leaving the defense on the field too much.
3. Culture.  Sumlin is a player's coach.  He ran the program with a soft hand and it showed.  The team as a whole lacked the mental toughness that good teams have.  Chavis could not counter this culture.



A&M was 94th in both Time of Possession and Third Down Conversion %. We were 43rd and 62nd by comparison. A&M scoring margin was 60th at +1.7, ours was 108th at -11.9.

Aubbie's numbers in TOP was 32nd but only 17 seconds more than us. Third down conversion was 39th at 42.5% only 2.5% better than ours. The glaring difference was scoring margin, Tigers 10th at +17.3. If we can manage to increase that one category, Chavis will have much more to work with.

12247

Like a poster 2 pages back offered, be honest and name a DC THAT would come to Arkansas that is likely to be better than Chavis.  If you are honest, you can't.  There may be an up and comer that would have loved to be here who didn't get that opportunity and that person MIGHT have really shined, but we don't know that. I worry that a DC who couldn't shine at A&M will not shine here either.  I read somewhere where we were 103rd this past season in total defense and A&M was 62nd.  Any DC who might knock 40 to 50 places off where we are and end up at where we can be is OK by me. 

I expect our D to be on the field far more than our O this coming season.  Hope I am wrong about that.  Our players know nothing about fast football or actually learning anything more than general basic stuff about O or D.  Most of our team couldn't define what special teams mean.  This is going to be a start from the very beginning task on both O, D & STs.  Many errors can be expected before things start to click. 

I believe Chavis would be near the top of any reasonable list we could actually pick from and therefore a good hire if indeed, he will be hired.  Chad Morris surely knows at least what we have dug up in stats about Chavis so he should know what to expect. 

 

longtimeHogfan

Quote from: colbs on December 28, 2017, 09:14:10 am
The assumption is A&M will not retain him so they will owe him the $1.6M.  If Arkansas hires him they could pay him say $1M and A&M would pay him $600,000.  Chavis and Arkansas are both probably waiting so they won’t have to pay the buyout.

Makes sense....thanks
I don't like to plan my day because then the word premeditated comes into the conversation.

root_hawg

Another thing to remember he won't have the same level of talent here that he has had at any other stop, is he innovative enough to work with that?  Offense will be similar to Texas AM.  Our depth is worse than theirs and talent level is less...

HF#1

Quote from: root_hawg on December 28, 2017, 11:22:00 am
Another thing to remember he won't have the same level of talent here that he has had at any other stop, is he innovative enough to work with that?  Offense will be similar to Texas AM.  Our depth is worse than theirs and talent level is less...

That's why his position coaches may be more important hires than Chavis himself. We have to have people to coach those kids up until we can begin recruiting at a higher level.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

firemedic1813

Can you imagine what it was like to work at A&M. Sumlins head has been on chopping block for the past 2 years. I bet Chavis defense was lacking, no support from institution.

247Hog

Quote from: root_hawg on December 28, 2017, 11:22:00 am
Another thing to remember he won't have the same level of talent here that he has had at any other stop, is he innovative enough to work with that?  Offense will be similar to Texas AM.  Our depth is worse than theirs and talent level is less...

If i got a quarter every time someone stated that Coach X won't do as well at UA because we don't have the same level of talent here, i could pay for Chavis buyout myself.

Funny how people can see Enos was limited and held back at times by CBB but can't see Chavis was probably limited by Sumlin.
If there's one thing any of you should know as hog fans, brace yourself for disappointment and never get your hopes up.

It could be raining female body parts outside and we'd all be hit in the head with a pecker - Dmaxfan

woodrow hog call

Quote from: firemedic1813 on December 28, 2017, 11:29:37 am
Can you imagine what it was like to work at A&M. Sumlins head has been on chopping block for the past 2 years. I bet Chavis defense was lacking, no support from institution.

Kind of ironic, or something, how Sumlin and Bret were such good friends and both of their programs became so dysfunctional about the same time.

When there is a major problem at the top of a program, it sifts its way down through every level.
"I hate rude behavior in a man, I won't tolerate it"

hogcards

"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

Rzback

any defense in the top 60 should be all CMM needs to win
Winning Percentages (how times have changed!) Frank Broyles 71%  Lou Holtz  74%  Ken Hatfield 76%  Jack Crowe 38%  Joe Kines 35%  Danny Ford 47% Houston Nutt 61%  Bobby Petrino 67%  John L Smith  33%  Bret Bielema 46%  Chad Morris 14%  Sam Pittman 52%

The Hawg Marshal

Explain to me how Chavis only having a good defense with superior talent (LSU, Tenner)is different than Venables who has only been at Oklahoma and Clemson. I'd love to have Venables but Chavis would be a good hire too and Chavis is more realistic in my opinion.

colbs

Quote from: 247Hog on December 28, 2017, 11:46:45 am
If i got a quarter every time someone stated that Coach X won't do as well at UA because we don't have the same level of talent here, i could pay for Chavis buyout myself.

Funny how people can see Enos was limited and held back at times by CBB but can't see Chavis was probably limited by Sumlin.
Shhh it don't work that way.  We get to decide if it's the position coaches/coordinators fault or the Head coaches.

King Kong

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:03:42 pm
Here ya go:



Shame on him for allow the NC to score 21 points.

Your arguments are weak

The Hawg Marshal

Quote from: King Kong on December 28, 2017, 12:08:21 pm
Shame on him for allow the NC to score 21 points.

Your arguments are weak
Yeah I don't see how this proves anything.

hogcards

Quote from: King Kong on December 28, 2017, 12:08:21 pm
Shame on him for allow the NC to score 21 points.

Your arguments are weak

Not really

I was against Rhoads as well. ...and he was dreadful.  I don't think he'll be as bad as Rhoads, but this would also not be a very good hire.

Hopefully it remains rumor only.
"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

hogcards

Quote from: The Hawg Marshal on December 28, 2017, 12:10:05 pm
Yeah I don't see how this proves anything.

I could be bring up the last two years as well, but I have a feeling you'd say the same thing.    ;)
"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

The Hawg Marshal

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:10:58 pm
I could be bring up the last two years as well, but I have a feeling you'd say the same thing.    ;)
Maybe, but that little snapshot of losing to Bama by 4 points means nothing in my opinion.

colbs

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:10:10 pm
Not really

I was against Rhoads as well. ...and he was dreadful.  I don't think he'll be as bad as Rhoads, but this would also not be a very good hire.

Hopefully it remains rumor only.
Who do you want as a DC?

hogcards

Quote from: colbs on December 28, 2017, 12:13:37 pm
Who do you want as a DC?

Choice 1 would be Ven

...but I can guarantee it's certainly not Chavis.
"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

colbs

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:16:47 pm
Choice 1 would be Ven

...but I can guarantee it's certainly not Chavis.
I should have said realistic DC you want.  It's easy to knock any potential hire.  Even Venables success came with great players.  Don't get me wrong I would take him in a heartbeat.  Almost every DC that is considered "good" is either winning with elite talent, an up and comer, or little to no SEC experience.

Stu

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:10:10 pm
Not really

I was against Rhoads as well. ...and he was dreadful.  I don't think he'll be as bad as Rhoads, but this would also not be a very good hire.

Hopefully it remains rumor only.
And, who would you consider to be a better hire that is available?  Follow up to that question:  How do you know if your choice DC would come here?  Follow up to that question, what evidence do you have that your choice DC would/could do a better job than Chavis (assuming he is the hire). 
I am amazed at the all-knowing and all-seeing posters.   The fact remains, none of us knows with absolute surety that this hire or any other hire is going to be a success or failure until this plays out.   I have reasons for optimism just as those who are doing the hiring (or they wouldn't have hired them, right?), but really, who knows?

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: Tim Harris on December 28, 2017, 10:19:45 am
This proves without a doubt Hogville will never be able to agree on anything.  Obviously results on the field will ultimately be what he should get judged on but on paper this the best hire I can remember us making.

You ever see a fanbase that does? If so it's been both hypnotized and brainwashed.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

SooieGeneris

Quote from: HenduHog on December 28, 2017, 08:57:44 am
I think Chavis is a good hire for us at this point in time.

For everyone criticizing his work at TAMU, I get the feeling that the atmosphere at TAMU was lax and undisciplined under the Sumlin regime. Look at how they played almost every year he was there. Start good, get some adversity, fade out. They never met expectations under Sumlin.

As many have said about Arkansas and BB. His team reflected his laid back attitude. I think TAMU reflected Sumlins lack of discipline

Anyone who doubts that Sumlin lacks discipline hasn't seen a certain viral video..
An Old OL coach who's team couldn't block a hat last season... If things aren't MUCH better this fall,  enjoy Hot Springs Sammy!

King Kong

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:10:10 pm
Not really

I was against Rhoads as well. ...and he was dreadful.  I don't think he'll be as bad as Rhoads, but this would also not be a very good hire.

Hopefully it remains rumor only.

You are pulling out games against the team on the greatest run in College Football History

Looks weak

ricepig

Quote from: The Hawg Marshal on December 28, 2017, 12:12:15 pm
Maybe, but that little snapshot of losing to Bama by 4 points means nothing in my opinion.

It does to him because he's a Bama fan.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 10:40:39 am
I'm not being "negative" about it for the sake of being negative.  After examining what Morris has assembled so far, the only thing I've disliked is the mention of Chavis.  Keep this guy away from the program.

Now I hope it's true he's hired just to get you PO'd.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: SooieGeneris on December 28, 2017, 12:31:45 pm
Anyone who doubts that Sumlin lacks discipline hasn't seen a certain viral video..

You mean the one where he's having to be helped back to his hotel room because he's to drunk to walk on his own? That shows he has a lot of discipline huh.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

wedge56

Quote from: hogcards on December 28, 2017, 12:16:47 pm
Choice 1 would be Ven

...but I can guarantee it's certainly not Chavis.

We all know what you don't like - everything.  Anybody in the realm of possibility that wouldn't be a disaster in your opinion?