WHAT WILL THE RAZORBACKS FINAL RECORD BE?

[Anti-OtisII]

Hogapalooza, what makes you think that firing HDN will lead to us being a powerhouse, considering we haven't been one in about 30 years? I have been asked several times to give reasons why I think he should remain head coach. I want your reasons you think someone else could do better.

The answer is simple.  Someone else could do it because it has been done before.  Powerhouse may be a little strong, but is really in the eye of the beholder.  Our program should consistently (at least 5 out of 7 years) finish the year ranked in the final Top 25 polls.    HDN has only done it in 2 out of 7 (will be 8 ) years as the head coach in 1998 and 1999.  He probably would have achieved that finish in the 5 years out of the 7 by also doing it in 2001, 2002, and 2003 had we not lost to teams that we shouldn't have.......LSU in 01, Kentucky and Minnesota in 02, and Auburn, Florida, and/or Ole Miss in 03.  Arkansas had the better team in all of those losses yet were not able to come away with the needed victory that would have almost assured a Top 25 season. 

You can always say, "yes, but we were only a few plays away from a victory" in some of those games, but the fact is that HDN was the HC in all of those games and he has yet to show that he get this program over the hump.  There are numerous excuses and explanations for all of the "should have beens", but the simple fact is that he has not been able to close the deal.  A better HC (and it doesn't have to be a "BIG NAME") can bring that small but important improvement that will make all of the difference in the world.  HDN could have probably achieved the same results several years ago by improving his staff of assistants, but that window of opportunity has passed us by.  Even if his pride were to allow him to clean house as should have been done much earlier, the ground that our program has lost because of his errors in judgement is simply inexcusable.

[Bomis Hawg]

Here are the stats from 1980-1990:

1980: 7-5; 3-5 -- T6th Place (Hall of Fame Bowl -- Tulane; W 34-15)
1981: 8-4; 5-3 -- 4th place (Gator Bowl -- North Carolina L; 27-31)
1982: 9-2-1; 5-2-1 -- 3rd Place (BlueBonnett Bowl -- Florida; W 24-24
1983: 6-5; 4-4 -- 5th Place (No Bowl)
1984: 7-4-1; 5-3 -- T3rd Place (Liberty Bowl -- Auburn; L 15-21)
1985: 10-2; 6-2 -- T2nd Place (Holiday Bowl -- Arizona State; W 18-17)
1986: 9-3; 6-2 -- T2nd Place (Orange Bowl -- Oklahoma; L 8-42)
1987: 9-4; 5-2 -- T2nd Place (Liberty Bowl -- Georgia; L 17-20)
1988: 10-2; 7-0 -- 1st Place (Cotton Bowl -- UCLA; L 3-17)
1989: 10-2; 7-1 -- 1st Place (Cotton Bowl -- Tennessee; L 27-31
1990: 3-8; 1-7 -- 7th Place (No Bowl)

Conference Record: 54-31-1 (63.7%).  3rd best in the SWC.
Average finish in the league was: 3+ place. 
Arkansas (89-40-2; 68.7%) has the 16th best winning percentage in that area.  That would put Arkansas 4th best against the current SEC teams. 
For some reason, the media guide has 1990 as 3-8, but this site has it as 4-7.  I'll go with it for now, I guess. 

Since this is brought up about Nutt, I'll compare to his era.
Conference record: 29-28 (50.9%).  6th best in the SEC; 2nd best in the SEC West.
Average finish in the division: 2.9.  That is equal to at least 5 in a full conference. 
Arkansas is 53-33 (61.6%) in that time period, which is 32nd best.  That is good for 4th best among SEC teams.   

Some say the SWC was not very good, so I'll just do the OOC (record for the OOC games):
1980: 16-15-2; .515 win percentage (Oklahoma State; Tulsa; Wichita State)
1981: 10-22-1; .318 win percentage (Tulsa; Northwestern; Ole Miss)
1982: 20-13; .606 win percentage (Tulsa; Navy; Ole Miss)
1983: 20-15; .571 win percentage (Tulsa; New Mexico; Ole Miss)
1984: 14-17-2; .455 win percentage (Ole Miss; Tulsa; Navy)
1985: 11-22-1; .338 win percentage (Ole Miss; Tulsa; New Mexico State)
1986: 16-17-1; .482 win percentage (Ole Miss; Tulsa; New Mexico State)
1987: 22-34; .393 win percentage (Ole Miss; Tulsa; Miamil New Mexico; Hawaii)
1988: 22-23; .489 win percentage (Pacific; Tulsa; Ole Miss; Miami)
1989: 16-20; .444 win percentage (Tulsa; Ole Miss; UTEP)
1990: 21-15; .583 win percentage (Tulsa; Ole Miss; Colorado State)

80-91: combine OCC record is 188-213-7 (46.9%).  11-3 against those with winning record (2 against Miami).
98-04: combine OOC record is 121-124 (19.4%).  7-1 against those with a winning record (2 games against BCS conference teams).

Arkansas is 3-5 in bowl games from 80-90.  Average score was: Arkansas 19.7; Opponent 24.8.  Difference of 5.1 ppg.
Arkansas is 2-5 in bowl games from 98-04.  Average score was: Arkansas 19.3; Opponent 22.5.  Difference of 2.3 ppg.

Some of the stats I surfaced.

[attachment deleted by admin]

[Bomis Hawg]

Here is another nugget I found.

Many seem to say that Nutt doesn't do well when he is expected to.  Here is the list of games while being ranked.

1980-1990:
Arkansas played 132 games.  They were ranked a total of 78 games (59.1%).  During those games, Arkansas had a record of 56-22-1 (71.5%).  Arkansas was ranked in the Top 10 32 of those 132 games (24.2%).  24 percent of the games played Arkansas was in the top ten, which is amazing.  Arkansas had two stretches of 20+ games of being ranked (one of 27; one of 24).

1998-2004:
Arkansas played 86 games in that period.  They were ranked a total of 22 games (25.6%).  Arkansas had a record of 12-10 (54.5%).  Arkansas was ranked in the Top 10 for 4 games (4.7%).

[artyhog]

I think that this team is fun to watch.  Jones and McFadden are great to watch.  Best hit in many years was the hit by Dacus last week.  If Monk did not have 2 -3 defendors on him he would have tons more yards.

[HogsRule]

E dub, Anti-OtisII, Bomis Hawg,

             Thank you all for showing what I could not to TechHawg. The reasons WE can be better. I guess in Very Simple Terms, If It has happened before, it can happen again!

I do Believe we should be a Top 25 team every year!

I believe we should win 8 + games every year.

I believe that we should win the SEC West 1 out of every 3 years.

I believe we we should win the SEC C/G 1 out of every 5 years.

I believe we should be in a BCS 2 out of every 5 years.

All these are " on average " terms. 

I know this is a High Standard for most people. I know some people here like to down play the standards set, so they feel Great when we come close to or reach them.  I know that some people here would like to see us all feel good about being mediocre.

Well I won't. I don't have "mediocre" in me! I want the Best! I strive for the Best! That is why I am here at  HOGVILLE it is the BEST site to get all the news on the HOGS. 

So if my goals are set to " High " for you, and you don't see us reaching them. Then maybe this thought will help you understand.                " WE would have never reached the Moon, if we wouldn't had been reaching for the Stars "   hogapalooza 05

So I think we can do better, because we have done it in the past. We can get started as soon as we

FIRE HDN!!!

Wow. We were aiming for the stars and we only got to the moon?

The closest star is 4.22 light years away.
That's approximately 24753237120000 miles.
The moon is only  238712 miles away. We really came up short if we were reaching for the stars.

With that ratio if we aim for 13 wins a year and only win 1 game you will be satisfied. I'm sorry, but I hold our team to a higher standard than that.

[Anti-OtisII]

I think that this team is fun to watch. Jones and McFadden are great to watch. Best hit in many years was the hit by Dacus last week. If Monk did not have 2 -3 defendors on him he would have tons more yards.

I don't define "fun to watch" by what I have personally seen on the defensive side of the ball for the Razorbacks for most of this year.  I don't define "fun to watch" as running the same 5 plays over and over again and waiting for the talented RBs to finally get the "big run".  To me, that is about as much fun (and takes the same amount of intelligence) as sitting on a bar stool in a casino playing the slot machines.

1.  Insert coin.
2.  Pull handle.
3.  Wait for results.
4.  Repeat steps 1 thru 3 over and over and over and over and over.....until you hit the jack pot or run out of money.  PURE STUPIDITY.

Do you get my point?  That is not "fun to watch" unless you are someone that also enjoys driving across Kansas at 45 mph as another favorite pastime.

As for Monk and the other "what if" concerning his coverage by 2-3 defenders.

1.  IF I had wings and a jet engine strapped to my ass then maybe I could fly.
2.  IF we had a REAL passing game and a balanced attack then the other team would not be able to put 2-3 defenders on him.

[artyhog]

I think that this team is fun to watch. Jones and McFadden are great to watch. Best hit in many years was the hit by Dacus last week. If Monk did not have 2 -3 defendors on him he would have tons more yards.

I don't define "fun to watch" by what I have personally seen on the defensive side of the ball for the Razorbacks for most of this year.  I don't define "fun to watch" as running the same 5 plays over and over again and waiting for the talented RBs to finally get the "big run".  To me, that is about as much fun (and takes the same amount of intelligence) as sitting on a bar stool in a casino playing the slot machines.

1.  Insert coin.
2.  Pull handle.
3.  Wait for results.
4.  Repeat steps 1 thru 3 over and over and over and over and over.....until you hit the jack pot or run out of money.  PURE STUPIDITY.

Do you get my point?  That is not "fun to watch" unless you are someone that also enjoys driving across Kansas at 45 mph as another favorite pastime.

As for Monk and the other "what if" concerning his coverage by 2-3 defenders.

1.  IF I had wings and a jet engine strapped to my ass then maybe I could fly.
2.  IF we had a REAL passing game and a balanced attack then the other team would not be able to put 2-3 defenders on him.

One man's junk is another man's treasure.  You have the right to critical as you want.  I also have the right to be as optimistic as I am.

It's just Democrats and Republicans, neither side is going to agree on everything.  Let's agree to disagree.

[CorningHog]

I expect it to be 3-8 but I am going to call it 4-7.

I expect we will play well this weekend but fail to close out the game on offense.  Auburn Loss
Georgia, loss
South Carolina ____?  This could be an either or.  If it is a loss, this HAS to finally nail the coffin shut on Nutt's career at UofA
Ole Miss____?  I think this one we will win.  I think the Rebels are that bad.
Miss St_____?  If Nutt and Co. can dodge the bullet in SC, this may be the hardest game all year.  At possibly 3-6 can they muster enough to salvage the other home SEC game in LR.  Salvaging the two SEC home games excluding Auburn will possibly give Houston another year or three.  A loss to Miss St at LR and this could signal the end as well.
LSU___?  I think this is a loss too.  Tennessee's running game gave the Tigers fits, but LSU also went conservative with the 21-0 lead and got real complacent after halftime.  Turnovers helped Tennessee too.

So, either 3-8 or 4-7 but I seriously doubt we can fix enough in our passing game on offense and to create turnovers on defense with any regularity.  The defense has improved but we do not have enough "bruisers" on defense to knock the ball loose during tackles.  If the Hogs D could emulate Weston Dacus' hit at LR on the ULM guy, then you may see something.  We really need both great hitters on "D" and some semblance of a passing game from RJ and the WR's, TE's and RB's.

The screens were run much better than any game this year except for the one run against USC.  Maybe there is hope!

My pick, 3-8 in the gut instinct, 4-7 for my "hope" and "head" call, but for my "heart" call, 8-3 with a win at the Cotton Bowl and 9-3 and bring on Mitch Mustain!

GO HOGS!

[Anti-OtisII]

I think that this team is fun to watch. Jones and McFadden are great to watch. Best hit in many years was the hit by Dacus last week. If Monk did not have 2 -3 defendors on him he would have tons more yards.

I don't define "fun to watch" by what I have personally seen on the defensive side of the ball for the Razorbacks for most of this year. I don't define "fun to watch" as running the same 5 plays over and over again and waiting for the talented RBs to finally get the "big run". To me, that is about as much fun (and takes the same amount of intelligence) as sitting on a bar stool in a casino playing the slot machines.

1. Insert coin.
2. Pull handle.
3. Wait for results.
4. Repeat steps 1 thru 3 over and over and over and over and over.....until you hit the jack pot or run out of money. PURE STUPIDITY.

Do you get my point? That is not "fun to watch" unless you are someone that also enjoys driving across Kansas at 45 mph as another favorite pastime.

As for Monk and the other "what if" concerning his coverage by 2-3 defenders.

1. IF I had wings and a jet engine strapped to my ass then maybe I could fly.
2. IF we had a REAL passing game and a balanced attack then the other team would not be able to put 2-3 defenders on him.

One man's junk is another man's treasure. You have the right to critical as you want. I also have the right to be as optimistic as I am.

It's just Democrats and Republicans, neither side is going to agree on everything. Let's agree to disagree.

Agreed. 

My point has never been that HDN hasn't ever had teams that were "fun to watch".  That is what is one of the most frustrating things about him.  His inconsistencies (especially regarding play calling) can be at times totally mind boggling and it is his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde personalities that have been the most frustrating.  One only has to look back to the 2003 season.......As an unranked underdog on the road against a Top 5 Texas team Dr. Jekyll coached cool and "to win" with a nothing to lose attitude that included a balanced attack with unpredictable play calling.  Only 3 weeks later (after a win over Bama on the road and an Open date) and sporting a Top 10 ranking playing as the favorite at HOME against an unranked Auburn team, Mr. Hyde reared his ugly head as HC and fell into the "playing not to lose" mode of conservative play calling and ultimately lost the "intellectual" battle between him and Tubby with a 3 point offensive showing.   

[GorillaJMonsoon]

We have lost to a team we shouldn't have and haven't beaten a team we shouldn't have, so I see us losing to LSU, Georgia, Auburn and one of the Mississippi teams, but winning against USC and one of the Miss schools. 4-7

[A-Town Hog Fan]

We will win out with the exception of Georgia.

[GorillaJMonsoon]

Bomis,

Great job with the stats! The graph was a great way to visualize all the numbers that usually make my eyes glaze over.  Maybe you should do that with the other SEC teams to compare.  If you want to.

[Kevin]

if you do the samething over and over again expecting the results to change that is insanity and i believe that is what are coach does.

[HogsRule]

I do Believe we should be a Top 25 team every year!

I believe we should win 8 + games every year.

I believe that we should win the SEC West 1 out of every 3 years.

I believe we we should win the SEC C/G 1 out of every 5 years.

I believe we should be in a BCS 2 out of every 5 years.

All these are " on average " terms.

So if my goals are set to " High " for you, and you don't see us reaching them. Then maybe this thought will help you understand. " WE would have never reached the Moon, if we wouldn't had been reaching for the Stars " hogapalooza 05

So I think we can do better, because we have done it in the past. We can get started as soon as we

FIRE HDN!!!

Wow. We were aiming for the stars and we only got to the moon?

The closest star is 4.22 light years away.
That's approximately 24753237120000 miles.
The moon is only 238712 miles away. We really came up short if we were reaching for the stars.

With that ratio if we aim for 13 wins a year and only win 1 game you will be satisfied. I'm sorry, but I hold our team to a higher standard than that.

7-4 baby. Let's whoop some Auburn ass

With that ratio if we aim for 13 wins a year and only win 1 game you will be satisfied. I'm sorry, but I hold our team to a higher standard than that. HogsRule........  This is YOUR Higher standard!!!  You think 7-4 is a HIGH standard?  Mr. I know that the closest star is 4.22 light years away, and yet I think a HIGH Happy Hogsrule Standard is 7 - 4.

Some people believe that we can never win a N/C. Some people think that winning the SEC C/G is a reach more the 1nc every 10 years or so. Some like you seem to be Happy saying 7 - 4.....  I don't! I think it SUCKS !! I think we need to set a goal for a N/C Every year! ( the stars ) and by working towards that we will win a SEC Championship! ( the moon ) So by setting our goals to the almost unobtainable, ( the stars aka N/C )  we will reach a higher mark ( the moon AKA SEC Championship ) then if we would have had lower goals like your Hogsrule 7 - 4.

I nor techhawg asked you for any of your stupid #'s on the stars. I don't care if your brain can't function out of the pee colored kiddie pool you live in. I don't need you to try and analyzes and explain things to me.  You can take your HIGHER STANDARDS and shove them 4.22 light years up your texASS!!

FIRE HDN!!!

Wow, you took that pretty seriously. I think your hatred is consuming you.

And 7-4 is not my standard every year, but AT THIS POINT IN FREAKING TIME, it would be quite a season if we won 5 out of 6 to finish the year. In a building year I will take 7-4, because I know that better things are coming. If you'll take a look at the graph earlier in this Post you will see that even in our heyday it wasn't a plateau of wins. There are peaks and valleys. This is a valley, 7-4 would lessen that valley. I think we are on the verge of an upswing for at least the next 3 years.

[e_dub]

And the vultures are circling.