Crystal Ball, 2 games in.

[mathhog]

Ok, let's do a little MATH...  hogs are sitting pretty at 1st in the west, 13-3, 2-0 SEC, 2-0 division (which gives us the slight edge over missstate for a few days).  Obviously, we want to do more than just squeak in, but let's take an objective look at the schedule to see where we are.

Right now we have 13 total wins, @Auburn & home Bama.   14 games left, so to get to 20 wins all we have to do is go 7-7.  If we hold serve at home, we could drop every road game and still finish at 20-10 pre-SECTourney.

Clearly, though, our boys can do better. Let's take a quick scan.

WEST HOME
LSU 7-9
Auburn 9-5
MissState 11-5
Ole Miss 14-1
-- i see no reason why we can't sweep this bunch, though for argument' sake let's say Ole miss OR miss state is a loss;   that puts us at 16-4, 5-1 SEC, 5-1 division

WEST AWAY\
@Bama 11-6
@LSU 7-9
@MissState 11-5
@Ole Miss 14-1
-- honesty time.  i truly think pel being coach will win us a few more road games than before, just by psychology... .BUT, we always stink it up at Ole Miss (not even the nat'l champ boys won there, havent won since like '93 or something?  crazy!);  plus, MissState is Ervin's last chance to shine/screw up... Bama is no gimmie, we always match up tight with them, but I really really really want to mark down LSU as a 'W'.  so lets say WORST case scenario we split these, and go 2-2 (we've won 4 straight against bama, maybe we can dominate a steele-less bama on the road as well);
that puts us at 18-6, 7-3 SEC, 7-3 Division

EAST
South Carolina 8-8
Vandy 16-1
Florida 15-2
@Georgia  9-5
@Kentucky (always tough) 7-7
@Tennessee 14-1
-- here you have to ask the question: are florida and vandy really paper tigers, or are they the real deal?  i think florida is overrated, and vandy underrated.  let's mark down USCEast as a 'W', and hopefully georgia as a 'W'.  Though we beat Tennessee at Knoxville last time, and though kentucky is HORRID this year, assume those are losses.  that leaves florida and Vandy in the Bud... can we beat them both? sure.  but going 8-0 at home is hard, so let's say we drop vandy in march.  we split the six east teams, which gives us a 21-9, 10-6 SEC, 7-3 Division record. 

10 wins could be enough to win the west, surely it gets us 2nd... maybe if we steal one in the Hump (MSU) or at Ole Miss, we get up to 11-5, 22-8.  Either way, I see us as a bye the first week of the SECT... most likely we get the 3rd or 4th in the east as competition (georgia-florida probably), where we could surely win 1 game, moving to 23-9 and an SEC semis berth to hang the hat on.

This is longer than just guessing at the schedule, but the point is, with no HUGE surprises, we ought to get an SECT bye fairly easily, with 10-6 as a floor, not a ceiling!

[dclay89]

+1

[Razorod]

I'd love for 10-6 to be the "floor" every year. That is where our program should be. However, I'm not yet convinced that this year's team is any better than 10-6. Guard play will be key, and that may be unfortunate for us. I'd love to be wrong, but I still stand by my 10-6 prediction.

[Modsquad24]

I'm with razorrod on this one, I got 10-6 sec season, which would make us 21-9 going into the sect where I think we go 1-1, entering the ncaa tournament at 22-10 overall and a 7 seed in Denver, CO

[Bomis Hawg]

Nice work.  I'll add something.

Road games at Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss are all mid-week games.  I think if Arkansas can go 2-1 or 1-2, that would be nice.  LSU, Miss State, and South Carolina all come to Bud Walton for a mid-week road game.  I could see Arkansas sweeping all three.

Best case from those six games could put Arkansas 7-1 for those.

They key stretch will come in Feb.  You have four road games (2 mid-week) -- including Kentucky and Miss State also. 

I don't expect us to be 8-0 come Tennessee, but it is capable.  If Arkansas is 9-4 heading into March, this will be looking great.  Arkansas has Vanderbilt and Auburn at home in March with a trip to the Tad Pad.  By then, we'll know how that road trip will be.

11 wins isn't out of the works yet.  Things will sort out, and I think Arkansas will get a "favorite" seed. 

[BrooklynRoss]

Nice breakdown, thanks!

[chiefsfan]

It is interesting being 2-0, with the next 2 games on your schedule probably talent wise being 2 of the weakest teams in the conference

last time we saw USCeast, we beat them by 30 points with the exact same squad from last year.  of course then again that was at the point that last years squad was playing out of their mind to help Heath try to keep his job

another interesting thing to note is that we have absolutely owned Vanderbilt of late.  That was the only place Heath could actually win at

[hawgsav1]

It is interesting being 2-0, with the next 2 games on your schedule probably talent wise being 2 of the weakest teams in the conference

last time we saw USCeast, we beat them by 30 points with the exact same squad from last year.  of course then again that was at the point that last years squad was playing out of their mind to help Heath try to keep his job

another interesting thing to note is that we have absolutely owned Vanderbilt of late.  That was the only place Heath could actually win at

Very good point.  I could see is pull a couple of clunkers against some bad teams but beat some high RPI teams (e.g. Vandy, Florida)