Better See This: SEC 2007 Football Preseason Strength of Schedules-Updated

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West except for Miss State, Ole Miss and Alabama.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this schedule make it easier or more difficult for Saban to rebound Alabama? Does this make it a cakewalk for LSU to the SEC West crown?

Some of you asked for more stats pertaining to the difficulty of schedule within the conference, excluding non-conference play. Here it is. You'll have to look at home-away strengths/weaknesses for yourself. It still appears that this sets up nicely for LSU, Auburn and Tennessee and Georgia. Kentucky still has the most difficult projected schedule, in or out of conference.

SEC West     ALL Opponents  Win%    Rank      SEC Only      Win%       Rank
Miss State            95/67         58.64%     1          67/39        63.21%        2
Auburn                 86/67         56.21%     2          60/43        58.25%        5
Alabama               84/68         55.26%     3          61/41        59.80%        3
Ole Miss               84/69         54.90%     4          67/37        64.42%        1
LSU                     83/71         53.90%     5          59/44        57.28%        6
Arkansas              79/71         52.67%     6          60/42        58.82%        4

SEC East
Kentucky              95/55         63.33%    1           66/36        64.71%        1
Tennessee            92/62         59.74%    2           61/42        59.22%        6
South Carolina       92/62         59.74%    2           75/42        64.10%        2
Florida                 90/61         59.60%     4           64/38        62.75%       4
Georgia                89/65         57.79%    5           63/40         61.17%       5
Vanderbilt             88/65         57.52%    6           68/39        63.55%        3

[HITCHER]

The question is can McFadden win the Heisman with a schedule like that. You know ESPN will eat our a** alive on that.

[DeltaBoy]

Nuttboy wants to go into OCT + .500 if he can!

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

i think we're playing a couple teams that did not win one game last season.

[TX HOG]

The question is can McFadden win the Heisman with a schedule like that. You know ESPN will eat our a** alive on that.

He can't if their are 9 players playing the run.

[weresoclose]

The East owns the West in everything but baseball.  What this does tell us is that Nutt plans for cupcake wins so as to keep his now miserable job.  How he can take all this and keep on going is beyond me.  What do you have to do to run off a coach these days???

[PAHog]

Worst schedule in the SEC based on the previous year's record of coming year's opponents.  There is no excuse for winning less than 9 games.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

i think we're playing a couple teams that did not win one game last season.

We play 6 teams with losing records from last year on our schedule.
Bama             6-7
N.Texas         3-9
Tenn-Chatt    3-8
Ole Miss         4-8
Fl Intl            5-7
Miss St          3-9

[TheHogFan]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Yes, we all know that history never repeats itself nor is it ever an indicator of things that could come in the future. But in a way, you are right. A better gauge will be the strength of schedule as the season progresses week to week. For now, this is just designed to create conversation about football and get off talking about HDN.

Just my take.

[Kilgor]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Insightful!!!!!  

Thanks for the info MuskogeeHogFan.  We all know there are six wins next year without any risk.

6 cup cakes, plus .500 in the remaining games = 9 wins, a mediocre bowl, and Nutt as coach for life.   

[spudhog]

shouldn't win less than 8

[pigslop]

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Do one for last season, you know the 10 win season everybody is so PROUD of.
It does not look very good.

[mword]

i think we're playing a couple teams that did not win one game last season.

We play 6 teams with losing records from last year on our schedule.
Bama             6-7
N.Texas         3-9
Tenn-Chatt    3-8
Ole Miss         4-8
Fl Intl            5-7
Miss St          3-9

I see us beating everyone in that list but Bama next season

[Tammany Tom]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

Your chart really doesn't tell much since you have included non-conference games in the mix. What is meaningful is home and away SEC games. Take LSU for example: Last year we had to play Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas on the road while getting Miss State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Bama at home. Not a recipe for winning a championship. This year we play Miss State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Bama on the road while getting Florida, Auburn, So. Carolina, and Arkansas at home. A recipe for winning a championship. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

Your chart really doesn't tell much since you have included non-conference games in the mix. What is meaningful is home and away SEC games. Take LSU for example: Last year we had to play Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas on the road while getting Miss State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Bama at home. Not a recipe for winning a championship. This year we play Miss State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Bama on the road while getting Florida, Auburn, So. Carolina, and Arkansas at home. A recipe for winning a championship. 

Well, you have a right to your opinion, but that is why this is called a pre-season strength of schedule. Maybe I should have indicated in the title that it was for entire schedules and not just the SEC schedule..........but this is the way that the NCAA determines strength of schedule for a team, so I figured it would be good enough for all of you.

If you guys(TheHogFan & Tammany Tom) want to take the time to compile some charts and posts and can do better, please, be my guest.

Have a nice day.

[Bacon The Saddle Again]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Insightful!!!!!  

Thanks for the info MuskogeeHogFan.  We all know there are six wins next year without any risk.

6 cup cakes, plus .500 in the remaining games = 9 wins, a mediocre bowl, and Nutt as coach for life.   

I wonder how many people thought the Hogs were easy wins they saw we posted a 4-7 season the year before.  Just isn't always accurate to gage how a team will do one year based on the previous year's record.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

+1 for doing the research
-1 for using bad statistics

Oh, you mean the NCAA Stats? It is their format, not mine...it is how strength of schedule is calculated.

[kimjongsqUeAl]

All I can say is if you've got a sched. like that you better go at least 11-1.  Thats for any team.
That win/loss column could be deceiving.  It could change drastically by middle of 07 season.

[Tammany Tom]

Well, you have a right to your opinion, but that is why this is called a pre-season strength of schedule. Maybe I should have indicated in the title that it was for entire schedules and not just the SEC schedule..........but this is the way that the NCAA determines strength of schedule for a team, so I figured it would be good enough for all of you.

If you guys(TheHogFan & Tammany Tom) want to take the time to compile some charts and posts and can do better, please, be my guest.

Have a nice day.

Don't get so sensitive. It's a nice chart looking at each team's overall SOS. However, when most fans look at SEC schedules their purpose is to see who has an advantage on other teams in determining who might win each division.

You guys played USC last year and that very difficult game had no bearing on you winning the SEC West last year. This year we play Virginia Tech while you play no non-conference team with any merit and again it has no bearing on the SEC title race. I merely pointed out that the most important factor in what teams have an advantage in winning each division is home and away SEC games.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Insightful!!!!!  

Thanks for the info MuskogeeHogFan.  We all know there are six wins next year without any risk.

6 cup cakes, plus .500 in the remaining games = 9 wins, a mediocre bowl, and Nutt as coach for life.   

I wonder how many people thought the Hogs were easy wins they saw we posted a 4-7 season the year before.  Just isn't always accurate to gage how a team will do one year based on the previous year's record.

True, teams can improve from one year to another or get worse. The better guage is perhaps as the season rolls along, but you never know how difficult the season has been for certain, until you get into the last quarter of it. However, as I said before, this is how the NCAA measures preseason strength of schedule and I just put it on here for conversation and discussion....so apparently, mission accomplished.

[gride216]

+1 for doing the research
-1 for using bad statistics

Oh, you mean the NCAA Stats? It is their format, not mine...it is how strength of schedule is calculated.

Don't sweat those who gripe and moan on how you calc'ed this or that.
Someone will always say you should have done it different.

Good post and I found the info as useful.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

+1 for doing the research
-1 for using bad statistics

Oh, you mean the NCAA Stats? It is their format, not mine...it is how strength of schedule is calculated.

Let me rephrase...

Bad statistics=Not all that relevant

I don't care what numbers you trot out.  Go look at the home/away within the SEC and that will help you get to the division winner.

As for the NCAA, I could care less what they do.  These are the same folks who told a team they couldn't be the Fighting (some reference to an Indian name) but let the Fighting Irish go unchecked.  They are a bunch inconsistent, liberal, PC nutcases headed by the chief (pun intended) of them all, Myles Brand. 

Well, you have a right to your opinion, but that is why this is called a pre-season strength of schedule. Maybe I should have indicated in the title that it was for entire schedules and not just the SEC schedule..........but this is the way that the NCAA determines strength of schedule for a team, so I figured it would be good enough for all of you.

If you guys(TheHogFan & Tammany Tom) want to take the time to compile some charts and posts and can do better, please, be my guest.

Have a nice day.

Don't get so sensitive. It's a nice chart looking at each team's overall SOS. However, when most fans look at SEC schedules their purpose is to see who has an advantage on other teams in determining who might win each division.

You guys played USC last year and that very difficult game had no bearing on you winning the SEC West last year. This year we play Virginia Tech while you play no non-conference team with any merit and again it has no bearing on the SEC title race. I merely pointed out that the most important factor in what teams will win each division is home and away SEC games.

I am in agreement with you both.

[Kilgor]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Insightful!!!!!  

Thanks for the info MuskogeeHogFan.  We all know there are six wins next year without any risk.

6 cup cakes, plus .500 in the remaining games = 9 wins, a mediocre bowl, and Nutt as coach for life.   

I wonder how many people thought the Hogs were easy wins they saw we posted a 4-7 season the year before.  Just isn't always accurate to gage how a team will do one year based on the previous year's record.

Troy @ Fayetteville

Alabama @ Tuscaloosa

Kentucky @ Fayetteville

North Texas @ Fayetteville

Tennessee-Chattanooga @ Little Rock

Auburn @ Fayetteville

Ole Miss @ Oxford

Florida International @ Fayetteville

South Carolina @ Fayetteville

Tennessee @ Knoxville

Mississippi State @ Little Rock

LSU @ Baton Rouge



There are an automatic 8 wins on next year's schedule.  If HDN loses ANY of them he should be fired.  Wait, he should already be fired.

We should also win the Alabama and Auburn games.

I bet we don't

[RazorsEdge]

One reason Mississippi State's schedule is the toughest is they don't get to play Mississippi State.  They went 3-9 last year, which makes them count as a strength of schedule cupcake for everyone else.

One reason LSU's schedule is one of the easiest is they don't have to play LSU.  They went 11-2 last year.  If they didn't have VaTech (10-3) on their non-con schedule and replaced them with a 6-6 team, they would beat us out for the easiest SOS.

Another problem with a win-loss % strength of schedule is it doesn't consider the quality of the win.  For example, Houston was 10-4 last year and would look the same as Arkansas on SOS.  South Carolina was 8-5 and beat that Houston team in the Libery Bowl, but would look softer than Houston in SOS calculations.

[IronHog]

One reason Mississippi State's schedule is the toughest is they don't get to play Mississippi State.  They went 3-9 last year, which makes them count as a strength of schedule cupcake for everyone else.

One reason LSU's schedule is one of the easiest is they don't have to play LSU.  They went 11-2 last year.  If they didn't have VaTech (10-3) on their non-con schedule and replaced them with a 6-6 team, they would beat us out for the easiest SOS.

Another problem with a win-loss % strength of schedule is it doesn't consider the quality of the win.  For example, Houston was 10-4 last year and would look the same as Arkansas on SOS.  South Carolina was 8-5 and beat that Houston team in the Libery Bowl, but would look softer than Houston in SOS calculations.

Exactly, pure win/loss means little because the better teams in the conference will be pushed toward the bottom.

[EastexHawg]

i think we're playing a couple teams that did not win one game last season.

We play 6 teams with losing records from last year on our schedule.
Bama             6-7
N.Texas         3-9
Tenn-Chatt    3-8
Ole Miss         4-8
Fl Intl            5-7
Miss St          3-9

I see us beating everyone in that list but Bama next season

If we don't, heads should roll.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

One reason Mississippi State's schedule is the toughest is they don't get to play Mississippi State.  They went 3-9 last year, which makes them count as a strength of schedule cupcake for everyone else.

One reason LSU's schedule is one of the easiest is they don't have to play LSU.  They went 11-2 last year.  If they didn't have VaTech (10-3) on their non-con schedule and replaced them with a 6-6 team, they would beat us out for the easiest SOS.

Another problem with a win-loss % strength of schedule is it doesn't consider the quality of the win.  For example, Houston was 10-4 last year and would look the same as Arkansas on SOS.  South Carolina was 8-5 and beat that Houston team in the Libery Bowl, but would look softer than Houston in SOS calculations.

I don't necessarily disagree, but they also have 8 bowl teams on their schedule with a combined winning percentage of 70% and five of them in a row. The easier games they play are Gardner-Webb(6-5), Tulane(4-8), Jackson State(4-6), UAB(3-9) and Ole Miss(4-8). And you are right, LSU's schedule sets up very nicely for them.

[TheRazorbackGuy]

We must win more than 10.... any less than 11 and a BCS bowl is a failure

[MuskogeeHogFan]

i think we're playing a couple teams that did not win one game last season.

We play 6 teams with losing records from last year on our schedule.
Bama             6-7
N.Texas         3-9
Tenn-Chatt    3-8
Ole Miss         4-8
Fl Intl            5-7
Miss St          3-9

I see us beating everyone in that list but Bama next season

If we don't, heads should roll.

And if we don't play the better teams well, our weak schedule(whether we win those or not) is not going to do us any favors in terms of BCS points for quality wins.

[cityhog]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Insightful!!!!!  

Thanks for the info MuskogeeHogFan.  We all know there are six wins next year without any risk.

6 cup cakes, plus .500 in the remaining games = 9 wins, a mediocre bowl, and Nutt as coach for life.   

I wonder how many people thought the Hogs were easy wins they saw we posted a 4-7 season the year before.  Just isn't always accurate to gage how a team will do one year based on the previous year's record.

Troy @ Fayetteville

Alabama @ Tuscaloosa

Kentucky @ Fayetteville

North Texas @ Fayetteville

Tennessee-Chattanooga @ Little Rock

Auburn @ Fayetteville

Ole Miss @ Oxford

Florida International @ Fayetteville

South Carolina @ Fayetteville

Tennessee @ Knoxville

Mississippi State @ Little Rock

LSU @ Baton Rouge



There are an automatic 8 wins on next year's schedule.  If HDN loses ANY of them he should be fired.  Wait, he should already be fired.

We should also win the Alabama and Auburn games.

I bet we don't

I wouldn't count the KY, SC-east or Ole Miss games as gimmes.  We've ALWAYS had a rough time in Oxford.  SC and KY will give us all we want at home.

[TheRazorbackGuy]

We will start the year ranked in the 9th-18th range.... If we go unbeaten until LSU we will be in the top 5 if not the top 3

[TheRazorbackGuy]

Anything less than a BCS Bowl is a failure

[TheRazorbackGuy]

Anything less than a BCS Bowl is a failure

Not if we win 10 in a row?

Nope.... BCS bowl is the only thing important... This is the year

[Kilgor]

I wouldn't count the KY, SC-east or Ole Miss games as gimmes.  We've ALWAYS had a rough time in Oxford.  SC and KY will give us all we want at home.

That is a strong condemnation of HDN as a coach.  Those SHOULD be wins.

[HogHillbilly]

The question is can McFadden win the Heisman with a schedule like that. You know ESPN will eat our a** alive on that.

He can't if their are 9 players playing the run.

Or if he only plays half a game and Nutter Butter pulls him out................

Or if we go 8-4

We will have to go to the SECCG again and win a bowl game if he has any chance at that thing

[TheRazorbackGuy]

The question is can McFadden win the Heisman with a schedule like that. You know ESPN will eat our a** alive on that.

He can't if their are 9 players playing the run.

Or if he only plays half a game and Nutter Butter pulls him out................

Or if we go 8-4

We will have to go to the SECCG again and win a bowl game if he has any chance at that thing

Good point because John David Booty will probably be undefeated and # 1 all season which will hurt D-Mac when Nutt coaches

[RazorsEdge]

One reason Mississippi State's schedule is the toughest is they don't get to play Mississippi State.  They went 3-9 last year, which makes them count as a strength of schedule cupcake for everyone else.

One reason LSU's schedule is one of the easiest is they don't have to play LSU.  They went 11-2 last year.  If they didn't have VaTech (10-3) on their non-con schedule and replaced them with a 6-6 team, they would beat us out for the easiest SOS.

Another problem with a win-loss % strength of schedule is it doesn't consider the quality of the win.  For example, Houston was 10-4 last year and would look the same as Arkansas on SOS.  South Carolina was 8-5 and beat that Houston team in the Libery Bowl, but would look softer than Houston in SOS calculations.

I don't necessarily disagree, but they also have 8 bowl teams on their schedule with a combined winning percentage of 70% and five of them in a row. The easier games they play are Gardner-Webb(6-5), Tulane(4-8), Jackson State(4-6), UAB(3-9) and Ole Miss(4-8). And you are right, LSU's schedule sets up very nicely for them.

My point was only that Miss St being weak makes everyone else have less SOS, and vice versa for LSU.
If you took LSU off MSU's schedule and replaced them with a 3-9 team, their SOS would be 87/74 (54.0%)
If you took MSU off LSU's schedule and replaced them with a 11-2 team, their SOS would be 91/64 (58.7%)
Just changing that one game swaps their positions in the ranking.   Mississippi States greatest disadvantage is that they don't get to play a team that hasn't won more than three games since 2000.  I know we agree on this, I'm just adding some numbers.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The question is can McFadden win the Heisman with a schedule like that. You know ESPN will eat our a** alive on that.

He can't if their are 9 players playing the run.

Or if he only plays half a game and Nutter Butter pulls him out................

Or if we go 8-4

We will have to go to the SECCG again and win a bowl game if he has any chance at that thing

Good point because John David Booty will probably be undefeated and # 1 all season which will hurt D-Mac when Nutt coaches

I could be wrong, but if we don't win a minimum of 11 and D-Mac doesn't rush for over 1,700 yards, with our weak schedule, I don't see him winning the Heisman, and I don't see us going to a BCS bowl.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Tennessee's numbers in SEC play cannot be correct.  If you will notice, the SEC records of every other team is just over 100 total games (wins plus losses for each teams' SEC oppoenent's records), depending on how many teams they played went on to play in Bowl games, SECC game and National Championship game.  The lone exception is UT, which shows a total of only 90 games.

Otherwise, good work.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Tennessee's numbers in SEC play cannot be correct.  If you will notice, the SEC records of every other team is just over 100 total games (wins plus losses for each teams' SEC oppoenent's records), depending on how many teams they played went on to play in Bowl games, SECC game and National Championship game.  The lone exception is UT, which shows a total of only 90 games.

Otherwise, good work.

Fixed that, go take another look now. My mistake....multi-tasking here. Thanks for catching my mistake.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Anything less than a BCS Bowl is a failure

Not if we win 10 in a row?

Nope.... BCS bowl is the only thing important... This is the year

Not for the HDNutt Supporters.  It is all we need to do to be successful. Ask any of them!

Just my opinion, but anything less than a 11-12-13 win season and a BCS Bowl and D-Mac doesn't get the Heisman. With the schedule we've got(relatively weak), and should he not be able to go over 1,700 yards rushing or total offense, it will take that many wins to secure the trophy for him.

Just my take.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I wouldn't count the KY, SC-east or Ole Miss games as gimmes.  We've ALWAYS had a rough time in Oxford.  SC and KY will give us all we want at home.

That is a strong condemnation of HDN as a coach.  Those SHOULD be wins.

I would agree....but it sounds realistic to me.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Nuttboy wants to go into OCT + .500 if he can!

If he can do that, the Hogs can come home to Auburn at 5-0 and probably ranked in the top 10.

[hogsanity]

So, are we bashing HDn for the conference schedule? IS the SEC now in a conspiracy with the UA to give them an easy schedule? 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

So, are we bashing HDn for the conference schedule? IS the SEC now in a conspiracy with the UA to give them an easy schedule? 

Not unless they are also conspiring with Vandy, Georgia and LSU.

[VinnyW]

Nuttboy wants to go into OCT + .500 if he can!

We will start the year ranked in the 9th-18th range.... If we go unbeaten until LSU we will be in the top 5 if not the top 3

Yea I say top 3 easy

[gangstaback]

well, it looks like this is better for us... it all depends on us how far we go doesn't it?

cuz if we win 11, we should be in major bowl, maybe even BCS Bowl if our victories in the SEC are big time (Alabama, LSU, Vols).

[Mark Lericos]

Did some research. Interesting results. Can this soft schedule play to the favor of Arkansas and LSU? The SEC East has tougher schedules all the way around than anyone in the West excepting Miss State.

Who is going to benefit the most from all of this? Does this prevent Kentucky from being more successful than they could be otherwise? Does this make it easier for Saban to rebound Alabama?

SEC West             Opponents Won/Loss-2006            Win%                     Rank
Miss State                          95/67                           58.64%                  1
Auburn                               86/67                           56.21%                  2
Alabama                             84/68                           55.26%                  3
Ole Miss                             84/69                           54.90%                  4
LSU                                   83/71                           53.90%                  5
Arkansas                            79/71                           52.67%                  6

SEC East
Kentucky                            95/55                           63.33%                  1
Tennessee                          86/55                           60.99%                  2
South Carolina                     92/62                           59.74%                  3
Florida                               90/61                            59.60%                 4
Georgia                              89/65                            57.79%                 5
Vanderbilt                           88/65                           57.52%                  6

This is completely worthless in the pre season.

Insightful!!!!!  

Thanks for the info MuskogeeHogFan.  We all know there are six wins next year without any risk.

6 cup cakes, plus .500 in the remaining games = 9 wins, a mediocre bowl, and Nutt as coach for life.   

I wonder how many people thought the Hogs were easy wins they saw we posted a 4-7 season the year before.  Just isn't always accurate to gage how a team will do one year based on the previous year's record.

Troy @ Fayetteville

Alabama @ Tuscaloosa

Kentucky @ Fayetteville

North Texas @ Fayetteville

Tennessee-Chattanooga @ Little Rock

Auburn @ Fayetteville

Ole Miss @ Oxford

Florida International @ Fayetteville

South Carolina @ Fayetteville

Tennessee @ Knoxville

Mississippi State @ Little Rock

LSU @ Baton Rouge



There are an automatic 8 wins on next year's schedule.  If HDN loses ANY of them he should be fired.  Wait, he should already be fired.

We should also win the Alabama and Auburn games.

I bet we don't

    Troy is still not a LOCK nor a cupcake. any Hog fan thinking that is setting up for a disaster to begin the season.   Just sayin...

[gangstaback]

LOOK AT THE TROY SCHEDULE!! Pretty bad ass... dont think theyre looking to suck this year....

Date    Day    Time    Opponent    Location    Outcome
09-01-2007    Sat    1:00 pm     Arkansas    Fayetteville, Ark.    
09-08-2007    Sat    5:00 pm     Florida    Gainesville, Fla.    
09-14-2007    Fri    6:30 pm     Oklahoma State    Troy, Ala.    
09-22-2007    Sat    3:00 pm     Louisiana Lafayette    Lafayette, La.    
09-29-2007    Sat    6:00 pm     Louisiana Monroe    Troy, Ala.    
10-06-2007    Sat    5:00 pm     Florida International    Miami, Fla.    
10-20-2007    Sat    2:30 pm     North Texas    Troy, Ala.    
10-27-2007    Sat    6:00 pm     Arkansas State    Jonesboro, Ark.    
11-03-2007    Sat    1:00 pm     Georgia    Athens, Ga.    
11-10-2007    Sat    1:00 pm     Western Kentucky    Bowling Green, Ky.    
11-20-2007    Tue    6:30 pm     Middle Tennessee    Troy, Ala.    
12-01-2007    Sat    1:00 pm     Florida Atlantic    Troy, Ala.