2017 MLB Draft Prospects

[Hatleyville454]

PerfectGame released their top 500 for the draft about a week ago. Here's a list of players that may be of interest and their ranking:

- Paxton Wallace: Greenbrier HS, Wichita State commit  - #489
- Logan Gragg: Conners State JUCO, from Prarie Grove, AR - #476
- Luke Bonfield (ARK) - #474
- Ryan Gridley (Miss State) - #472
- Tyler Zuber (Ark State) - #436
- Jared Poche (LSU) - #420
- Jordan Rodgers (TENN) - #413
- Kramer Roberson (LSU) - #307
- Reed Hayes (Vandy) - #292
- Keegan Thompson (AU) - #276
- Jason Delay (Vandy) - #230
- JJ Schwarz (UF) - #217
- Jackson Rutledge (ARK HS Commit) - #214
- Will Toffey (Vandy) - #201
- Deacon Liput (UF) - #173
- Cole Freeman (LSU) - #172
- Tyler Johnson (USC) - #163
- Greg Deichmann (LSU) - #159
- Chad Spanberger (ARK) - #157
- Trevor Stephan (ARK) - #151
- Jake Mangum (Miss State) - #149
- Zach Pop - (UK) - #132
- Riley Mahan (UK) - #126
- Cole Turney (ARK HS Commit) - #102
- Bryce Bonnin (ARK HS Commit) - #84
- Mike Rivera (UF) - #80
- Daniel Tillo (ARK JUCO Commit) - #77
- Brent Rooker (Miss State) - #72
- Blaine Knight (ARK) - #66
- Will Crowe - (USC) - #55
- Dalton Guthrie (UF) - #51
- Corbin Martin (A&M) - #42
- Clarke Schmidt (USC) - #36
- Alex Lange (LSU) - #35
- Evan White (UK) - #28
- Tanner Houck (MIZZ) - #26
- Alex Faedo (UF) - #14
- Jaren Kendall (Vandy) - #11
- Kyle Wright (Vandy) - #2

I'm sure I missed a couple, but these were the ones that jumped out at me involving Arkansas/SEC.

[Porked Tongue]

I bet Spanberger will rocket up that list.

[Hogs49ers]

What are the chances that we get those recruits on this list to campus?

[JHicks3636]

What are the chances that we get those recruits on this list to campus?

I'd bet slim. If they go that high, the money should be good.

[Hogs49ers]

It just blows my mind on how they could know that Daniel Tillo (ARK Juco commit) is a better prospect than Spanberger and just as good as Rooker...?  And two players that have only played highschool ball are better than Spanberger and Stephan?

Also, where is Mize??? I feel like he is one of the best pitchers in the country...and I do not like him one bit.

Holy shiiitt, Vandy is stacked with top prospects, how are they not better? Coaching or too young?

[Hatleyville454]

It just blows my mind on how they could know that Daniel Tillo (ARK Juco commit) is a better prospect than Spanberger and just as good as Rooker...?  And two players that have only played highschool ball are better than Spanberger and Stephan?

Also, where is Mize??? I feel like he is one of the best pitchers in the country...and I do not like him one bit.

Holy shiiitt, Vandy is stacked with top prospects, how are they not better? Coaching or too young?

Mize is a Sophomore and will not be 21 by the draft. Undraftable.

[ucahogfan]

It just blows my mind on how they could know that Daniel Tillo (ARK Juco commit) is a better prospect than Spanberger and just as good as Rooker...?  And two players that have only played highschool ball are better than Spanberger and Stephan?

Also, where is Mize??? I feel like he is one of the best pitchers in the country...and I do not like him one bit.

Holy shiiitt, Vandy is stacked with top prospects, how are they not better? Coaching or too young?

Daniel Tillo is a 6-5, 235 LHP that can sit 92-95 and hit 97 as a starter.  Players like him don't come around every day.  He also has the potential for a plus slider and a developing change.  That is why he is so highly rated.

Bryce Bonnin has hit 96 this spring with the 2nd best slider in his class.

Cole Turney has a nice set of tools and has a longer track record of success than Spanberger.  He might not have the raw power, but scouts love his hitting ability.

As far as getting recruits to campus, it all depends on signability.  If a player wants first round money and they are more of a top 3-4 round talent, those players tend to make it to campus now with the new draft rules.

[onebadrubi]

Daniel Tillo is a 6-5, 235 LHP that can sit 92-95 and hit 97 as a starter.  Players like him don't come around every day.  He also has the potential for a plus slider and a developing change.  That is why he is so highly rated.

Bryce Bonnin has hit 96 this spring with the 2nd best slider in his class.

Cole Turney has a nice set of tools and has a longer track record of success than Spanberger.  He might not have the raw power, but scouts love his hitting ability.

As far as getting recruits to campus, it all depends on signability.  If a player wants first round money and they are more of a top 3-4 round talent, those players tend to make it to campus now with the new draft rules.

What's your opinion on who makes it and who doesn't?

[riccoar]

That moment when your draft stock goes through the roof

[navyhog24]

That moment when your draft stock goes through the roof

Just for you...

[riccoar]

Thanks Navy

[onebadrubi]

Just for you...

You could flip that and do the same for singer except when you are no longer considered a true ace in the SEC. 

[PintailKiller]

It just blows my mind on how they could know that Daniel Tillo (ARK Juco commit) is a better prospect than Spanberger and just as good as Rooker...?  And two players that have only played highschool ball are better than Spanberger and Stephan?

Also, where is Mize??? I feel like he is one of the best pitchers in the country...and I do not like him one bit.

Holy shiiitt, Vandy is stacked with top prospects, how are they not better? Coaching or too young?

It's all about the projectability of a player in a scout's eyes.  All it takes is 1 scout to love you, it doesn't really matter what the other 31 clubs think.

[PintailKiller]

Mize is a Sophomore and will not be 21 by the draft. Undraftable.

Have to 21 within 30 days of the draft.  See Benintendi.

[El Duderino]

If all of our commits and current players are drafted where they are projected, which, if any, would you expect to return next year?

[dotnet]

If all of our commits and current players are drafted where they are projected, which, if any, would you expect to return next year?

Well, these aren't projections - they are rankings.  I get what you're asking, but those are two different things because you can't separate money, evaluations, strategy, etc. 

I know people will disagree with this, but if someone is selected in the first 10-15 rounds, you should generally not expect them to make it to campus.

Or said another way, the MLB team screwed up if they drafted a player with one of their top ten round picks and failed to sign him.

[jry04]

Well, these aren't projections - they are rankings.  I get what you're asking, but those are two different things because you can't separate money, evaluations, strategy, etc. 

I know people will disagree with this, but if someone is selected in the first 10-15 rounds, you should generally not expect them to make it to campus.

Or said another way, the MLB team screwed up if they drafted a player with one of their top ten round picks and failed to sign him.

Top 10 as a HS/JUCO kid, I agree. If they are drafted in the 11th+ round we have a shot. If any of our recruits go in the top 10 rounds then we can probably expect them to be gone.

Knight is likely going to be drafted in the top 3 rounds, but as Kyle Peterson and Ben McDonald have both said multiple times, coming back to school could benefit him. He could go in the late 2nd round and make around $1 million, or he could add 15lbs over the summer/fall and come back and go in the 1st or the 1st supplemental round and make $2 million + minimum. Even the difference between going late in the 2nd and top 5 in the 2nd can be the difference in making about $900k more in signing bonus. There is talk Knight could end up a top 10 pick if he returned to school. The difference in where he is projected now and where he could be in a year is over $3 million. However, any of these prospects or current players could be offered well above slot value and make 2nd or 1st round money despite going in the 3rd or later. For once, selfishly, I would like to have some good luck like LSU or Vandy have when their highly drafted sophomores or juniors return for an extra year to help win a championship. I guess having more tuition assistance helps, too.

[dotnet]

Right, but again, if Knight is drafted in the third round then there is a 97.5% chance he is going. 

I agree with your analysis, but the larger point is that the teams are in contact with the draftees and have a good idea what they're thinking. 

Its a circular reference.  Knight is drafted (assuming this happens) in round 3 because he'll sign for what can be offered in round 3.  if he was unwilling to sign for round 3 money (or what a team can spend in round 3), then he wouldn't be drafted there.  Yes, a team can screw up or miscalculate what it'll take... but that usually means the scout or someone had bad information and messed up. The teams intention is to sign every single one of their top 10-15 picks (with a few exceptions in rounds 11-15).

[Hatleyville454]

Have to 21 within 30 days of the draft.  See Benintendi.

Correct, but Mize just turned 20 so he's 2018 regardless.

[TexasDad]

The MLB draft is complicated…
Each team has a defined signing bonus pool (SLB) equal to the sum of its first 10 rounds picks slot money. For 2017 it looks like this:

Team            SLB Pool
Twins            $  14,156,800
Reds            $  13,658,400
Rays            $  12,528,100
Padres    $  11,839,000
Athletics    $  11,407,500
Brewers    $  10,447,700
Pirates    $  10,135,900
D-backs    $    9,905,900
Braves    $    9,881,200
Marlins    $    9,375,500
Astros    $    9,039,600
Phillies    $    8,729,100
Blue Jays    $    8,231,000
Angels    $    8,212,800
Royals    $    8,076,900
White Sox    $    7,921,400
Rangers    $    7,626,600
Cubs            $    7,454,900
Yankees    $    6,912,800
Orioles    $    6,846,700
Mariners    $    6,737,300
Tigers    $    6,520,100
Giants    $    6,363,600
Mets            $    6,212,500
Dodgers    $    5,794,200
Red Sox    $    5,667,100
Nationals    $    5,503,500
Rockies    $    4,615,700
Indians    $    3,829,000
Cardinals    $    2,176,000

After the 10th round they can spend $100K per pick without affecting there SLB Pool – However, if they pay more than $100K for a pick after the 10th round the overage is deducted from their SLB Pool.

If they ignore the pool limits there are penalties:

•   0-5% over – 75% tax on overage amount
•   5-10% over – 75% tax on overage amount and loss of next year’s first round pick
•   10-15% over – 100% tax on overage amount and loss of next year’s first and second round pick
•   More than 15% over – 100% tax on overage and loss of first round picks for next two years.

The point is that teams negotiate with the players in advance to manage their bonus pools and avoid penalties. If a first rounder demands more than slot money it must be pulled from other players. You might have a late round player a team is high on go in the 4th round but only get $100K to clear more money for their number one pick. All this is planned and negotiated in advance of the draft and then when it goes out the window when your guy is picked by another team – it’s done over the phone a round or two in advance of the pick.

If a team doesn’t sign its pick in the first 10 rounds, it throws a huge wrench into everything. That unsigned picks slot money is removed from the pool – and can’t be used for anyone. That’s why it’s so rare for a pick in the first 10 rounds not to sign.

As stated above, I would not expect to see anyone back who goes in the first 10 rounds.

[Hatleyville454]

If all of our commits and current players are drafted where they are projected, which, if any, would you expect to return next year?

I will rank our guys based on who I think are most likely to sign. In other words, I have the least confidence in #1 making it/coming back to campus as I do in #8...

1. Cole Turney - Big league ready tools and body. College won't improve his stock all that much. He could already be a top prospect in the MLB by the time he would be eligible again.
2. Daniel Tillo - Raw, but projectable. Could probably benefit from coaching and experience in SEC, but I don't know how much it would benefit him draft/money wise.
3. Trevor Stephan - Stellar year for the JUCO transfer. Showed the tools needed to get drafted high this year. Would lose leverage by coming back.
4. Chad Spanberger - The stock won't get much hotter for Chad as it is right now. Strike while the iron is hot I say.
5. Blaine Knight - Great year and flashed the tools, but young and has another year of leverage if he wants it. Not 1st round this year, but could be top 15ish pick next year if he could work around 94-95 with FB consistently, show a plus 3rd pitch (changeup), and add about 10 pounds of muscle to his frame. I think he should come back.
6. Luke Bonfield - Not sure about Luke. You know what he is and what he projects at. His draft stock hasn't increased a whole lot since HS, and it probably won't if he comes back either. Probably not a top 10 round pick, so really up to him whether he enjoys college enough to stay another year.
7. Bryce Bonnin - Could potentially be the highest drafted player of the bunch, but could REALLY benefit from college and be a top 10 type pick down the road. Two way athlete who just now is starting to hone his pitching skills (which is where he projects). Does he want to learn how to pitch on the farm or in the SEC is the only question.
8. Jackson Rutledge - Very tall/large frame. Could probably work mid/upper 90s with FB as he matures. That would put him in top 3rd round territory. Probably more 6th - 10th round as it stands right now.

Disclaimer: I am no scout, nor do I know anything more than any of you guys.

[ucahogfan]

I will rank our guys based on who I think are most likely to sign. In other words, I have the least confidence in #1 making it/coming back to campus as I do in #8...

1. Cole Turney - Big league ready tools and body. College won't improve his stock all that much. He could already be a top prospect in the MLB by the time he would be eligible again.
2. Daniel Tillo - Raw, but projectable. Could probably benefit from coaching and experience in SEC, but I don't know how much it would benefit him draft/money wise.
3. Trevor Stephan - Stellar year for the JUCO transfer. Showed the tools needed to get drafted high this year. Would lose leverage by coming back.
4. Chad Spanberger - The stock won't get much hotter for Chad as it is right now. Strike while the iron is hot I say.
5. Blaine Knight - Great year and flashed the tools, but young and has another year of leverage if he wants it. Not 1st round this year, but could be top 15ish pick next year if he could work around 94-95 with FB consistently, show a plus 3rd pitch (changeup), and add about 10 pounds of muscle to his frame. I think he should come back.
6. Luke Bonfield - Not sure about Luke. You know what he is and what he projects at. His draft stock hasn't increased a whole lot since HS, and it probably won't if he comes back either. Probably not a top 10 round pick, so really up to him whether he enjoys college enough to stay another year.
7. Bryce Bonnin - Could potentially be the highest drafted player of the bunch, but could REALLY benefit from college and be a top 10 type pick down the road. Two way athlete who just now is starting to hone his pitching skills (which is where he projects). Does he want to learn how to pitch on the farm or in the SEC is the only question.
8. Jackson Rutledge - Very tall/large frame. Could probably work mid/upper 90s with FB as he matures. That would put him in top 3rd round territory. Probably more 6th - 10th round as it stands right now.

Disclaimer: I am no scout, nor do I know anything more than any of you guys.

Turney is looking at being a 3rd/4th round pick right now and could vastly increase his stock by coming to school.  He might have a better set of tools coming to campus than Benintendi or Fletcher.  If anything, the body is much more prototypical than those two.  He could be a top 10 overall pick should he come to school and perform like those two.

Tillo could benefit from one year at Arkansas.  He has the prototypical body for a LHP and if he can show he can consistently work in the mid 90s with a plus slider and a developing change in the SEC, he could be a very high pick in 2018.  I have the least confidence in him making it to campus because he is a JUCO.

I think all four of the Hogs in the top 500 sign because the track record says they will.  Now, 4 of the 5 LSU Tigers in the Top 500 all were drafted last year and came back to school so maybe we get lucky like they did.  Just imagine this team next year if all of the signees and those 4 players along with Shaddy were all back.

Bonnin has so much to gain by coming to campus.  Plus he could be like Eibner in someone who is not ready to give up on hitting just yet and go pitching full time at the pro level.

You have to love Rutledge's frame and can dream of 97-99 in there while working 94-96.  That is 1st round territory there.  Zebulon Vermillion could be the same way in a couple of years.

[Hatleyville454]

Turney is looking at being a 3rd/4th round pick right now and could vastly increase his stock by coming to school.  He might have a better set of tools coming to campus than Benintendi or Fletcher.  If anything, the body is much more prototypical than those two.  He could be a top 10 overall pick should he come to school and perform like those two.

Tillo could benefit from one year at Arkansas.  He has the prototypical body for a LHP and if he can show he can consistently work in the mid 90s with a plus slider and a developing change in the SEC, he could be a very high pick in 2018.  I have the least confidence in him making it to campus because he is a JUCO.

I think all four of the Hogs in the top 500 sign because the track record says they will.  Now, 4 of the 5 LSU Tigers in the Top 500 all were drafted last year and came back to school so maybe we get lucky like they did.  Just imagine this team next year if all of the signees and those 4 players along with Shaddy were all back.

Bonnin has so much to gain by coming to campus.  Plus he could be like Eibner in someone who is not ready to give up on hitting just yet and go pitching full time at the pro level.

You have to love Rutledge's frame and can dream of 97-99 in there while working 94-96.  That is 1st round territory there.  Zebulon Vermillion could be the same way in a couple of years.

If we could get either Knight or Stephan to come back, I will be cutting backflips. There is a lot of young talent on this team to absorb a decent amount of losses, but I would feel a lot better about it if we could return a proven friday or saturday starter.

My dream scenario would be to return Stephan and/or Knight, Bonfield, and bring in three out of Tillo/Bonnin/Rutledge/Vermillion.

[onebadrubi]

If we could get either Knight or Stephan to come back, I will be cutting backflips. There is a lot of young talent on this team to absorb a decent amount of losses, but I would feel a lot better about it if we could return a proven friday or saturday starter.

My dream scenario would be to return Stephan and/or Knight, Bonfield, and bring in three out of Tillo/Bonnin/Rutledge/Vermillion.

Add bonfield or SPANBERGER to knight or Stephan and we are in a great spot in my opinion.

[onebadrubi]

Is koch draft able? 

[ucahogfan]

If we could get either Knight or Stephan to come back, I will be cutting backflips. There is a lot of young talent on this team to absorb a decent amount of losses, but I would feel a lot better about it if we could return a proven friday or saturday starter.

My dream scenario would be to return Stephan and/or Knight, Bonfield, and bring in three out of Tillo/Bonnin/Rutledge/Vermillion.

So you have no hope of Turney ever playing in a Diamond Hog uniform?

Looking at the roster for next year, it is going to have a lot of experience.  You for sure return Koch, Biggers, Cole, and Fletcher offensively who have all been excellent for us this year as well as players who have seen some ABs in McFarland, Lee, Williams, Wilson, Kenley, and Burch.  That isn't factoring in the potential of Shaddy, Bonfield, or Spanberger returning.

On the mound, you would have Campbell back healthy hopefully who would have been our Friday night guy this year along with Murphy who has shown plenty of potential as well as players like Cronin, Reindl, Kopps, Lee, Heiss, and Loseke who will be back.

This is a top 25 team again next year even if we lose all top signees and all draft eligible players, but that won't happen.

If we are able to get all of our signees to campus even if we lose Knight and Stephan, I'm sure DVH, Vitello, and Johnson will be doing backflips with the injection of talent they will be getting to add onto a solid base.

[ucahogfan]

Is koch draft able?

He will be eligible next year along with all of the other sophomores except for Knight who is obviously eligible this year.

If he continues improving like he has, he could be a 1st/2nd round pick next year as college Cs with his talent are very rare and highly sought after.  He isn't as good as McCann defensively right now, but the offensive ceiling is much higher as he has a whole lot more raw power.  He could conceivably hit 18-20 HRs next year.

Biggers could also work his way into a 1st/2nd round range next year if he added some more pop to his game.  He already has quite a bit of pop, but if were to hit 8-10 HRs, he could go very high next year.

[bulldog04]

He will be eligible next year along with all of the other sophomores except for Knight who is obviously eligible this year.

If he continues improving like he has, he could be a 1st/2nd round pick next year as college Cs with his talent are very rare and highly sought after.  He isn't as good as McCann defensively right now, but the offensive ceiling is much higher as he has a whole lot more raw power.  He could conceivably hit 18-20 HRs next year.

Biggers could also work his way into a 1st/2nd round range next year if he added some more pop to his game.  He already has quite a bit of pop, but if were to hit 8-10 HRs, he could go very high next year.

I wonder if Bigger's has the arm strength to stick at shortstop in pro ball.  If not he will make a top notch second basemen.

[Hatleyville454]

So you have no hope of Turney ever playing in a Diamond Hog uniform?

Maybe it's just because I'm so in love with his game that I feel like a team will draft him well higher than his current projections...I would love to see that bat for a few years in Fayetteville though.

I wonder if Bigger's has the arm strength to stick at shortstop in pro ball.  If not he will make a top notch second basemen.

Biggers has deceptive arm strength. He kind of has funky mechanics, so he could probably get a little more on his throws with a little work.

[ucahogfan]

Maybe it's just because I'm so in love with his game that I feel like a team will draft him well higher than his current projections...I would love to see that bat for a few years in Fayetteville though.

All it takes is for one team to really like you and draft you high; however, we won't know about some of these players and the numbers their advisors have floated to the teams.  I definitely want to see him on the Hill.

Biggers has deceptive arm strength. He kind of has funky mechanics, so he could probably get a little more on his throws with a little work.

He also has maybe the quickest hands I have ever seen.  He can glove it and get it out as quick as probably anyone in the country which will help make up some for his arm strength.

[Hatleyville454]

He also has maybe the quickest hands I have ever seen.  He can glove it and get it out as quick as probably anyone in the country which will help make up some for his arm strength.

Agreed. I paid pretty close attention last week to Kramer and Biggers at SS. Kramer definitely has a flow to his defense and makes plays look easy by the fluidity of his movements. Biggers is a little more herky jerky with his approach, but with the same results on difficult plays. Biggers appeared to have a slightly stronger arm than Roberson on deeper throws in the hole. Both are extremely fast on their ball transfer.

[onebadrubi]

He will be eligible next year along with all of the other sophomores except for Knight who is obviously eligible this year.

If he continues improving like he has, he could be a 1st/2nd round pick next year as college Cs with his talent are very rare and highly sought after.  He isn't as good as McCann defensively right now, but the offensive ceiling is much higher as he has a whole lot more raw power.  He could conceivably hit 18-20 HRs next year.

Biggers could also work his way into a 1st/2nd round range next year if he added some more pop to his game.  He already has quite a bit of pop, but if were to hit 8-10 HRs, he could go very high next year.

Sorry I meant in the upcoming draft.  For some reason I was thinking he might have been, but guess I was wrong.  Still  a lot of time left in the day to be wrong many more times!

[onebadrubi]

All it takes is for one team to really like you and draft you high; however, we won't know about some of these players and the numbers their advisors have floated to the teams.  I definitely want to see him on the Hill.
He also has maybe the quickest hands I have ever seen.  He can glove it and get it out as quick as probably anyone in the country which will help make up some for his arm strength.

I think that plays right into the funky mechanics.  He short arms just about every throw but still gets a lot more zip on it than you would think being short armed.  It is also why you see some his balls look like they will sail up when leaving his hand. 

[onebadrubi]

Agreed. I paid pretty close attention last week to Kramer and Biggers at SS. Kramer definitely has a flow to his defense and makes plays look easy by the fluidity of his movements. Biggers is a little more herky jerky with his approach, but with the same results on difficult plays. Biggers appeared to have a slightly stronger arm than Roberson on deeper throws in the hole. Both are extremely fast on their ball transfer.

Biggers showed some good power on that throw from deep short stop where he should have gotten the runner out at home but Koch stabbed at the throw right in the base line and wiffed.

[BroyledNutts]

Agreed. I paid pretty close attention last week to Kramer and Biggers at SS. Kramer definitely has a flow to his defense and makes plays look easy by the fluidity of his movements. Biggers is a little more herky jerky with his approach, but with the same results on difficult plays. Biggers appeared to have a slightly stronger arm than Roberson on deeper throws in the hole. Both are extremely fast on their ball transfer.

I would like to see Biggers stay through his senior season to see just how smooth he gets at those difficult plays - the skill sets between Bigs and Kramer are the same - Kramer is smoother due to experience ... Jax will be every bit as smooth if he gets to play out his eligibility...

[ucahogfan]

Heston Kjerstad is 258 on the list as well.

[Waldron_Hog]

There were several scouts at the game last night.