Something Else To Talk About

[bphi11ips]

Depending upon the outcome, this year's college playoff may signal a change in college football philosophy at the top.  Clemson's win last year over Alabama may have been a crack, but if Oklahoma gets through two of the top 10 defenses to win it all, it may be the end of the pro-style, stingy defense era.  The question is relevant for Arkansas fans because of the transition the Hogs are about to make in philosophy and personnel. 

There are really three contrasting offensive styles in this year's playoffs.  Oklahoma has an Air Raid-type passing attack that puts up better rushing numbers than a Kingsbury/Leach offense but does it with speed and misdirection in space created by the threat of the pass.  Clemson is more of a power spread with a balanced attack like the one CCM installed there from 2011-2014.  Alabama has spread elements set up by Jalen Hurts as a running threat, but it is a power running-vertical passing team.  Georgia is a traditional power running team that will throw the ball to keep the chains moving.  Alabama, Georgia and Clemson represent 3 of the top 6 teams in the country in Total Defense.  Oklahoma is 57.

Georgia and Oklahoma present an interesting matchup.  Oklahoma is 3rd in passing offense with 367.4 ypg.  Georgia is second in fewest Passing Yards Allowed at 158.3.  Georgia is 10th in Rushing Offense at 263.5 per game.  Oklahoma is 41st in Rushing Defense at 144.2 ypg but plays in a conference where rushing is not a strength.  To some extent the same could be said about Georgia.  Passing was not a relative strength this year in the SEC East. One thing that Georgia did not have this year is a strong pass rush.  Georgia tied for 63rd in the NCAA in 2017 with only 2.00 sacks per game.

If Oklahoma gets by Georgia, it will run into much of the same with Alabama's or Clemson's defense.  Rankings are similar.  Alabama is 7th in Passing Yards Allowed.  Clemson is 8th.  Both rush the passer better than Georgia.  Clemson finished 3rd in Team Sacks with 3.38 per game.  Alabama tied for 23rd at 2.58, not a stellar year by Alabama standards.

Oklahoma has had some of the great offenses in college football history.  The Sooners helped usher in the wishbone era in 1970 with Jack Mildren and Greg Pruitt.  They dominated college football in the 70's with the triple option.  They were on the other side of the passing vs. rushing question in 1985 when Vinny Testaverde first passed the Hurricanes to a victory over the Sooners.  Everyone thought OU's wishbone was unstoppable, but Miami's victory, powered by Testaverde's precision passing in the seams to athletic targets like Brian Blades and Michael Irvin off of play action fakes to power backs like Alonzo Highsmith, signaled the end of the triple option era and the beginning of pro-style passing attacks with power running games.  Such offenses have dominated the landscape of championship college football since. 

Spread concepts have proliferated since coaches like Rich Rodriguez and Chip Kelly introduced them.  Clemson and Deshaun Watson beat Alabama last year with a power version of it.  But since the mid-80's championships have been won mostly by teams that fielded fast, physical defenses and set up the pass with the power running game.  Air Raid offenses, in particular, have been thought to be a softer brand of football not well suited for serious national championship contenders.

Of course, Jimmy Johnson fielded some great defenses to go with Miami's pro-style attack.  But it will be interesting to see what happens if Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma can outscore the big D's of Georgia and Alabama/Clemson.  Will college football fans look back in a decade or so and point to this playoff as the one where defenses and rushing gave way to the Air Raid and 50/50 balls?   

[davril98]

Thank you.  I've been needing something new to read!

[DeltaBoy]

We will see if this is a shift in College Football or just a Mirage.

[bphi11ips]

Thank you.  I've been needing something new to read!

What do you think?

[bphi11ips]

We will see if this is a shift in College Football or just a Mirage.

Maybe Baker Mayfield is the David Copperfield of college football?

[SSFrazorback]

Thank you.  I've been needing something new to read!

Right!?! MMQB has become MMGUSBUS

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I think offenses will always be evolving with the big boys like Bama even updating like they've been doing the last couple years under Kiffin as OC.  The difference, however, will almost certainly be who can play better defense.  It's just harder to recruit for and play defense, but if you can, then you're ahead of the game.

Everyone is playing offense.  Just not that hard to do.  And Mayfield is pretty unique.  Sort of like Watson was.  And Cam a few years back. 

[hogsanity]

Teams that win are always going to be ones that can get a key stop. Maybe it used it be you needed a d to make 21 points stand up, and now it is make 35 stand up, but at some point you have to stop the other team.

[davril98]

What do you think?

I think you have a valid point.  Not many teams can get the hosses to just line up and smash you in the face all the way to a championship.  The "new" offenses are kind of an equalizer.  You might not be able to beat Bama very often, but the up tempo, dual threat qb offense gives you a punchers chance.
And rules now favor the offense so it makes sense to take advantage of it.

[bphi11ips]

I think offenses will always be evolving with the big boys like Bama even updating like they've been doing the last couple years under Kiffin as OC.  The difference, however, will almost certainly be who can play better defense.  It's just harder to recruit for and play defense, but if you can, then you're ahead of the game.

Everyone is playing offense.  Just not that hard to do.  And Mayfield is pretty unique.  Sort of like Watson was.  And Cam a few years back. 

Good point.  But evolution has its missing links, too, where everything branches. That 1985 Miami-OU was definitely one in college football terms.

It seems to me that fans and players like the 50/50 passing game with its acrobatics and one-handed grabs. That style may also placate those voicing concern over concussions. Maybe the time has come for OU's style of offense. Even Bear Bryant adopted the wishbone soon after he saw that it worked.

[HF#1]

no leí

[go hogues]

I think offenses will always be evolving with the big boys like Bama even updating like they've been doing the last couple years under Kiffin as OC.  The difference, however, will almost certainly be who can play better defense.  It's just harder to recruit for and play defense, but if you can, then you're ahead of the game.

Everyone is playing offense.   

Which is why the powers remain the powers. The big schools in the southeast, like Bama, LSU and Georgia, will always be given a head start, as they are in closest proximity to the big, fast DT's, DE's and Linebackers.

Sure, occasionally a team will jump up and bite them but you are right - whoever has the best defensive front seven will usually be the hegemon.

[bphi11ips]

Teams that win are always going to be ones that can get a key stop. Maybe it used it be you needed a d to make 21 points stand up, and now it is make 35 stand up, but at some point you have to stop the other team.

Defense will no doubt be important, but no one thought Clemson would shred Alabama the way it did last year. If none of these teams can stop Oklahoma, do college defenses need to evolve?

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I think you have a valid point.  Not many teams can get the hosses to just line up and smash you in the face all the way to a championship.  The "new" offenses are kind of an equalizer.  You might not be able to beat Bama very often, but the up tempo, dual threat qb offense gives you a punchers chance.
And rules now favor the offense so it makes sense to take advantage of it.

Except Bama will eventually adopt said offense.  And likely continue playing elite defense.  Then what do you do?

Ultimately, the difference will be defense.  Always has been.  Now that's not to say that you can't lead with offense, or that your defense has to be better than your offense.  Just that if everyone is running the air raid offense, and if everyone is running it with similar talent, then defense will be the difference.

[bphi11ips]

Which is why the powers remain the powers. The big schools in the southeast, like Bama, LSU and Georgia, will always be given a head start, as they are in closest proximity to the big, fast DT's, DE's and Linebackers.

Sure, occasionally a team will jump up and bite them but you are right - whoever has the best defensive front seven will usually be the hegemon.

I think you just nailed what has been the predominant feature of championship defenses pretty much forever, but in the future, will the DBs be the most important element?

[hogsanity]

Defense will no doubt be important, but no one thought Clemson would shred Alabama the way it did last year. If none of these teams can stop Oklahoma, do college defenses need to evolve?

Defense always has. Defense had to learn to stop the dead t, the wing t, the veer, the wishbone, the power 9 Nebraska I ), etc. Defenses will learn to at least slow down the uptempo offenses we see today.

Plus, not just everyone has a Baker Mayfield or a Deshaun Watson at QB either. Clemson has been solid this year, but it has relied more on it's D than it did last year. Their Qb is good but no where near what they had the last few years, imo.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Defense will no doubt be important, but no one thought Clemson would shred Alabam the way it did last year. If none of these teams can stop Oklahoma, what does that to to the evolution of college defenses?

Ironically, Bama probably lost that game because their offense, particularly their passing game, wasn't effective enough. 

Let's get some perspective, Clemson ran 99 plays in the game to Bama's 66 plays.  99 FRICKING PLAYS.  Almost unheard of.  Largely due to a bunch of Bama 3 and outs.  Eventually Bama just wore down.  And Clemson needed all the way to the very last second to win it too.  Eventually Clemson got it done, but it's offense needed a whole bunch of opportunities.  I'm in the minority, but Hurts was a liability in that game.  Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. 

Clemson's defense won that game, not their offense.  Or Bama's offense lost it.  Either way.

[bphi11ips]

Defense always has. Defense had to learn to stop the dead t, the wing t, the veer, the wishbone, the power 9 Nebraska I ), etc. Defenses will learn to at least slow down the uptempo offenses we see today.

Plus, not just everyone has a Baker Mayfield or a Deshaun Watson at QB either. Clemson has been solid this year, but it has relied more on it's D than it did last year. Their Qb is good but no where near what they had the last few years, imo.

Not everyone had a Vinny Testeverde or a vintage Miami defense, either, but by 1990 about the only teams running the triple option were service academies.  Alabama dominated the SEC for a number of years with the wishbone.  Georgia won an NC beating people up with Herschel Walker.

The question is not whether the OU style will change the balance of power, it is whether powers like Alabama will adopt it and how their defenses will evolve to defend it. 

[Michael D Huff AIA]

I appreciate an original posting with some data to support it.

Research > Ramblings

[Deep Shoat]

Offenses evolve, but good D is still what wins championships.

Oklahoma MIGHT get by UGA.  They MIGHT even beat Bama or Clemson.  But it won't be the sea change people will try to make it.  It will be one of the outlier's that happen from time to time.

Odds are, one of the other three will win because OU's D isn't good enough to stop the weaker offenses from putting up the same kind of numbers as their O.

[GoHogs1091]

It will boil down largely to who stops the opposing teams' rushing the best.

Oklahoma simply doesn't have a good enough Rushing Defense.  Look for Georgia to be able to run the ball and keep OU's offense on the sideline.

Don't expect Alabama to be able to consistently run the ball effectively against Clemson.  Auburn got 38 Total Rushing Yards against Clemson.

[bphi11ips]

Offenses evolve, but good D is still what wins championships.

Oklahoma MIGHT get by UGA.  They MIGHT even beat Bama or Clemson.  But it won't be the sea change people will try to make it.  It will be one of the outlier's that happen from time to time.

Odds are, one of the other three will win because OU's D isn't good enough to stop the weaker offenses from putting up the same kind of numbers as their O.

This is pretty much how I see it.  I personally like college football the way it is.  Nothing more boring to me than watching a 50/50 track meet like the AAC championship game between Memphis and UCF.  Exciting finish, but you can catch that by tuning in for the last five minutes.  Sort of like the NBA.  Wait until game 7 of the championship series and it's worth watching. 

On the other hand, it feels like the winds of change may be blowing in college football.  If the best defenses can't stop Oklahoma, maybe it's because they've found a better offense.  Phil Fulmer said recently that 7-on-7 has dramatically improved QB play and timing with WRs. Players also practice for hours in one-on-one drills and catching with one hand.  Call it the Odell Beckham Effect.  Gloves are designed now to help.  The things these kids have been doing for years in camps and practice are showing up on the field.  They weren't doing those things before. 

[bennyl08]

Alabama tied for 23rd at 2.58, not a stellar year by Alabama standards.

Actually, this has been a stellar year for Bama by their own standards. Under Saban, Alabama has not been particularly good at rushing the passer. You see a similar trend in yards allowed through the air. Over the past decade, 60% of the time, they aren't in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game, and 30% of the time they are 30th or lower.

Below is the data for sacks in ranking and raw numbers per game. The two years at the top were quite the anomaly for Bama with virtually all of that production coming from 2 individuals who both left in the last draft class. Without those two stud pass rushers, this is actually the best year raw numbers wise that Saban has ever had.

Year: rank sacks/game
2008: 55 1.79
2009 29 2.21
2010: 49 2.08
2011: 29 2.31
2012: 16 2.50
2013: 80 1.69
2014: 41 2.21
2015: 1 3.47
2016: 1 3.60
2017: 31 2.58

[HogNTX]

And defenses will have to adapt. I really like the way that Morris talks about his offense being like basketball on grass. In basketball a good offense makes a good defense wrong. You can be in the right position but we're going to do something to make you wrong. Once you get exploited in one D you switch to adapt and the offense must adapt as week.

I think that's why Morris said our D has to be multi-faceted. We're not going to be just a even or odd front. We're going to mix fronts so that the offense's attempt to make us wrong gets a lot harder.

The high school I coach with is more what they call a dealers choice now. They'll line up with a play and if the defense sets up for it we'll run that play. Or... we'll check the sideline and the OC in the booth is calling down the play to run against the defensive alignment. They go into each formation with 4 play options and options off those 4 plays. Defenses will adjust to show you what they want you to run and then close it off. Chess game.

[bphi11ips]

It will boil down largely to who stops the opposing teams' rushing the best.

Oklahoma simply doesn't have a good enough Rushing Defense.  Look for Georgia to be able to run the ball and keep OU's offense on the sideline.

Don't expect Alabama to be able to consistently run the ball effectively against Clemson.  Auburn got 38 Total Rushing Yards against Clemson.

I definitely agree that everyone's strategy against OU will be ball control. 

[hogsanity]

Not everyone had a Vinny Testeverde or a vintage Miami defense, either, but by 1990 about the only teams running the triple option were service academies.  Alabama dominated the SEC for a number of years with the wishbone.  Georgia won an NC beating people up with Herschel Walker.

The question is not whether the OU style will change the balance of power, it is whether powers like Alabama will adopt it and how their defenses will evolve to defend it. 

Just about everyone is running something other than the I as is it is. One back, no back, pistol, shotgun, and alot of teams are running uptempo too.It is not like OU is anywhere close to the only team running what they are. They may have the best Qb/WR/TE/RB combo running it.

Still comes down to having the players to run whatever you want to run. Ball St is not going to jump up and win a NC just because they change to the OU system.

To be successful on offense you have to have 4 things

a really good OL
speed on the outside
a qb to get the ball to the speed
ability to run the ball

You have that you can run just about any offense you want to run and be successful

[bphi11ips]

Actually, this has been a stellar year for Bama by their own standards. Under Saban, Alabama has not been particularly good at rushing the passer. You see a similar trend in yards allowed through the air. Over the past decade, 60% of the time, they aren't in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game, and 30% of the time they are 30th or lower.

Below is the data for sacks in ranking and raw numbers per game. The two years at the top were quite the anomaly for Bama with virtually all of that production coming from 2 individuals who both left in the last draft class. Without those two stud pass rushers, this is actually the best year raw numbers wise that Saban has ever had.

Year: rank sacks/game
2008: 55 1.79
2009 29 2.21
2010: 49 2.08
2011: 29 2.31
2012: 16 2.50
2013: 80 1.69
2014: 41 2.21
2015: 1 3.47
2016: 1 3.60
2017: 31 2.58

Thanks for the information. I didn't research Alabama's stats but have been under the impression Saban's defense was among sack leaders on a regular basis.

[bennyl08]

This is pretty much how I see it.  I personally like college football the way it is.  Nothing more boring to me than watching a 50/50 track meet like the AAC championship game between Memphis and UCF.  Exciting finish, but you can catch that by tuning in for the last five minutes.  Sort of like the NBA.  Wait until game 7 of the championship series and it's worth watching. 

On the other hand, it feels like the winds of change may be blowing in college football.  If the best defenses can't stop Oklahoma, maybe it's because they've found a better offense.  Phil Fulmer said recently that 7-on-7 has dramatically improved QB play and timing with WRs. Players also practice for hours in one-on-one drills and catching with one hand.  Call it the Odell Beckham Effect.  Gloves are designed now to help.  The things these kids have been doing for years in camps and practice are showing up on the field.  They weren't doing those things before.

The most exciting game to me is the one where you have to earn everything you get. If there's a big passing play, it's because the OL made a great effort to block a talented pass rusher to give the qb time. The qb made a great throw into a tight window because the defense had good coverage, and the receiver made a some great moves because the defense was still in position to have multiple defenders make a tackle despite giving up the reception.

[bennyl08]

Thanks for the information. I didn't research Alabama's stats but have been under the impression Saban's defense was among sack leaders on a regular basis.

No worries, I had thought so too a while back but in looking at the data, that isn't the case. When I see something like that posted, I try and pass on the information I learned.

[jst01]

Ya know, I was thinking about this the other day.  Teams are willing to play offense that is quick strike, big play focused. They don't care if they score in two plays and only run 1 minute of clock. Modern football is moving to the goal of scoring every chance you can and scoring a bunch. And I think defenses will have to adapt...and not just the ones those teams face, their own defenses. The defenses of the teams that are built for those quick strike offenses will need to be athletic ALL OVER THE FIELD, and have endurance like no other. 

I was wondering at what point in the future will a big time program change the way defensive units are fielded and go to all speed and athleticism over size and strength??  Where the biggest guy on the defense is on the line of course, but he's 260 lbs and can run a 4.75 forty.  Where the entire back 7 are lightning fast and are excellent tacklers.  I mean..how big and strong do you really need to be on defense? I see games every week where running backs are caught in the backfield from the weak side by a quick rushing corner or D-end. 

[bphi11ips]

And defenses will have to adapt. I really like the way that Morris talks about his offense being like basketball on grass. In basketball a good offense makes a good defense wrong. You can be in the right position but we're going to do something to make you wrong. Once you get exploited in one D you switch to adapt and the offense must adapt as week.

I think that's why Morris said our D has to be multi-faceted. We're not going to be just a even or odd front. We're going to mix fronts so that the offense's attempt to make us wrong gets a lot harder.

The high school I coach with is more what they call a dealers choice now. They'll line up with a play and if the defense sets up for it we'll run that play. Or... we'll check the sideline and the OC in the booth is calling down the play to run against the defensive alignment. They go into each formation with 4 play options and options off those 4 plays. Defenses will adjust to show you what they want you to run and then close it off. Chess game.

Thanks for joining the discussion.  Nice to have high school coaches chime in.  Post more. 

My son's high school team just finished a great two-year run following the same process.  The QB was outstanding and was a Mr. Football and Region MVP running the RPO from spread formations. 

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I hate the idea that FB could turn into the NBA. 

[GoHogs1091]

I definitely agree that everyone's strategy against OU will be ball control. 

Keeping Oklahoma's offense on the sideline is a key, but also Oklahoma is just not on the same level defensively as the other 3 teams.

Number of Rushing Touchdowns Allowed Total This Season

Clemson has allowed 5 Rushing TDs total this season.
Georgia has allowed 6 Rushing TDs total this season.
Alabama has allowed 8 Rushing TDs total this season.
Oklahoma has allowed 19 Rushing TDs total this season.

[Oklahawg]

The rule book has continually shifted the balance towards offense. A couple of tweaks and it would even out quickly.

[parallaxpig]

All college spread offenses rely on dynamic QB's. Its the one factor DC's can't figure out how to stop. My question is the transition of spread QB's to the NFL. Most get hurt trying to use their legs like college. I believe Cam Newton only one to hold up because he is the size of a tight end........

[redeye]

Nice summary!

I think offenses will always be evolving with the big boys like Bama even updating like they've been doing the last couple years under Kiffin as OC.  The difference, however, will almost certainly be who can play better defense.  It's just harder to recruit for and play defense, but if you can, then you're ahead of the game.

Everyone is playing offense.  Just not that hard to do.  And Mayfield is pretty unique.  Sort of like Watson was.  And Cam a few years back.

I agree with this.  You need a spectacular offense, and maybe a little luck, to win a national title without a great defense.  Auburn did it in 2010, but they had a lot of luck along the way and Oregon's defense wasn't spectacular.  That Oregon team also had fewer bluechip players than Arkansas did that year.

The same was true with Auburn in 2013, except this time they ran into a FSU defense that ranked 3rd and Auburn lost.  Clemson's defense was 8th last year, so I'm unsure what Oklahoma winning would prove?

Personally, I can't see Oklahoma winning it all and I doubt they'll even get by Georgia.

[bennyl08]

All college spread offenses rely on dynamic QB's. Its the one factor DC's can't figure out how to stop. My question is the transition of spread QB's to the NFL. Most get hurt trying to use their legs like college. I believe Cam Newton only one to hold up because he is the size of a tight end........

The biggest reason you don't see qb's running a lot in the NFL is efficiency. Doesn't matter if you run a 4.00 second forty yard dash, you can't run faster than the ball can be thrown.

You have a lot more to gain by scheming a better way to get a receiver open downfield and getting the ball to them than you do by scheming a way to run the ball.

[bphi11ips]

Just about everyone is running something other than the I as is it is. One back, no back, pistol, shotgun, and alot of teams are running uptempo too.It is not like OU is anywhere close to the only team running what they are. They may have the best Qb/WR/TE/RB combo running it.

Still comes down to having the players to run whatever you want to run. Ball St is not going to jump up and win a NC just because they change to the OU system.

To be successful on offense you have to have 4 things

a really good OL
speed on the outside
a qb to get the ball to the speed
ability to run the ball

You have that you can run just about any offense you want to run and be successful

You are missing the point. Plenty of teams run what OU runs. How many have won national championships with it?  Suggesting that it is a great equalizer for Ball State would be retarded.

Here is an awesome link to the 1985 Miami-OU game:

Someone captured Johnson's pre-game session with his assistants. It is really cool. Frank Broyles was color commentator. It's worth watching the first few minutes if nothing else. I remember watching the game live but forgot that Troy Aikman ran the wishbone for OU. 

Miami didn't run the I in 1985. They used a two-back set much like the veer set Holtz used.  The difference was that Johnson ran it as a power set rather than an option set.  He used two wide sets rather than the single wide sets common with the I. John Robinson was winning NCs with the I at USC before Emory Ballard invented the wishbone that made the I passe for a while in college. Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler clung to it longer than anyone else. Sound like the Big 10?

P.S. - I love the I-formation. You can do a lot with the ISO to set up anything from power leads to middle screens to the fullback to vertical strikes off of play-action. Bootlegs work nice, too. Like most offenses before the RPO, the fun was setting up the payoff play. The offense we are seeing evolve today is based pretty much on personnel groupings and defensive alignment prior to each snap, with calls delivered from the press box where coaches have the best view and the QB makes final pre-and-post snap reads.  I can't say I understand it anymore, but I knew my way around the I and triple option sets pretty well. Playcalling was a lot of fun. Maybe it still is. 

[Vantage 8 dude]

Depending upon the outcome, this year's college playoff may signal a change in college football philosophy at the top.  Clemson's win last year over Alabama may have been a crack, but if Oklahoma gets through two of the top 10 defenses to win it all, it may be the end of the pro-style, stingy defense era.  The question is relevant for Arkansas fans because of the transition the Hogs are about to make in philosophy and personnel. 

There are really three contrasting offensive styles in this year's playoffs.  Oklahoma has an Air Raid-type passing attack that puts up better rushing numbers than a Kingsbury/Leach offense but does it with speed and misdirection in space created by the threat of the pass.  Clemson is more of a power spread with a balanced attack like the one CCM installed there from 2011-2014.  Alabama has spread elements set up by Jalen Hurts as a running threat, but it is a power running-vertical passing team.  Georgia is a traditional power running team that will throw the ball to keep the chains moving.  Alabama, Georgia and Clemson represent 3 of the top 6 teams in the country in Total Defense.  Oklahoma is 57.

Georgia and Oklahoma present an interesting matchup.  Oklahoma is 3rd in passing offense with 367.4 ypg.  Georgia is second in fewest Passing Yards Allowed at 158.3.  Georgia is 10th in Rushing Offense at 263.5 per game.  Oklahoma is 41st in Rushing Defense at 144.2 ypg but plays in a conference where rushing is not a strength.  To some extent the same could be said about Georgia.  Passing was not a relative strength this year in the SEC East. One thing that Georgia did not have this year is a strong pass rush.  Georgia tied for 63rd in the NCAA in 2017 with only 2.00 sacks per game.

If Oklahoma gets by Georgia, it will run into much of the same with Alabama's or Clemson's defense.  Rankings are similar.  Alabama is 7th in Passing Yards Allowed.  Clemson is 8th.  Both rush the passer better than Georgia.  Clemson finished 3rd in Team Sacks with 3.38 per game.  Alabama tied for 23rd at 2.58, not a stellar year by Alabama standards.

Oklahoma has had some of the great offenses in college football history.  The Sooners helped usher in the wishbone era in 1970 with Jack Mildren and Greg Pruitt.  They dominated college football in the 70's with the triple option.  They were on the other side of the passing vs. rushing question in 1985 when Vinny Testaverde first passed the Hurricanes to a victory over the Sooners.  Everyone thought OU's wishbone was unstoppable, but Miami's victory, powered by Testaverde's precision passing in the seams to athletic targets like Brian Blades and Michael Irvin off of play action fakes to power backs like Alonzo Highsmith, signaled the end of the triple option era and the beginning of pro-style passing attacks with power running games.  Such offenses have dominated the landscape of championship college football since. 

Spread concepts have proliferated since coaches like Rich Rodriguez and Chip Kelly introduced them.  Clemson and Deshaun Watson beat Alabama last year with a power version of it.  But since the mid-80's championships have been won mostly by teams that fielded fast, physical defenses and set up the pass with the power running game.  Air Raid offenses, in particular, have been thought to be a softer brand of football not well suited for serious national championship contenders.

Of course, Jimmy Johnson fielded some great defenses to go with Miami's pro-style attack.  But it will be interesting to see what happens if Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma can outscore the big D's of Georgia and Alabama/Clemson.  Will college football fans look back in a decade or so and point to this playoff as the one where defenses and rushing gave way to the Air Raid and 50/50 balls?

While I appreciate your comments and analysis, not sure whether the outcome of the NCG should be taken as an iron clad endorsement of a "passing of the guard" when it comes to college football offensive schemes. I would most especially point out that a massive amount of the firepower that's been generated by the Oklahoma offense the past couple of seasons, especially this year, has been the tremendous improvement and impact of Baker Mayfield. The kid's personality/leadership as well as his skills are greatly responsible for much of the Sooner's place in the playoffs. Unless they can figure a way to clone him OU is going to be challenged next year to repeat the type of offensive dominance they've displayed so often.

[Boss Hog in the Arkansas]

I think offenses will always be evolving with the big boys like Bama even updating like they've been doing the last couple years under Kiffin as OC.  The difference, however, will almost certainly be who can play better defense.  It's just harder to recruit for and play defense, but if you can, then you're ahead of the game.

Everyone is playing offense.  Just not that hard to do.  And Mayfield is pretty unique.  Sort of like Watson was.  And Cam a few years back.

Exactly. Those types of players are the great equalizers for teams with average defenses and allow them to keep up with the elites

[GoHogs1091]

Ironically, Bama probably lost that game because their offense, particularly their passing game, wasn't effective enough. 

Let's get some perspective, Clemson ran 99 plays in the game to Bama's 66 plays.  99 FRICKING PLAYS.  Almost unheard of.  Largely due to a bunch of Bama 3 and outs.  Eventually Bama just wore down.  And Clemson needed all the way to the very last second to win it too.  Eventually Clemson got it done, but it's offense needed a whole bunch of opportunities.  I'm in the minority, but Hurts was a liability in that game.  Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. 

Clemson's defense won that game, not their offense.  Or Bama's offense lost it.  Either way.

I am not convinced Jalen Hurts is a good enough of a downfield passer to win a NC.

Lincoln Riley's offense with Baker Mayfield can be slowed down.  Here is what occurred the last time Riley's offense with Mayfield at QB went up against Clemson's Defense.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400852733

It is possible that Riley's offense with Mayfield at QB is better now than then, but it is very likely that Clemson's Defense is better now than then (in fact, the 2017 Clemson DL is better than the 2015 Clemson DL).

I am not convinced that Jake Fromm can get it done against a non Auburn high-level defense.  Auburn's defense is really the only high-level defense that Fromm has faced this season.

The aspect that should be remembered about Kelly Bryant is that he doesn't have to be all-world.  He has elite talent at WR around him (Cain, Higgins, McCloud, Overton, Thompson, and the very sure handed Renfrow).

[bphi11ips]

While I appreciate your comments and analysis, not sure whether the outcome of the NCG should be taken as an iron clad endorsement of a "passing of the guard" when it comes to college football offensive schemes. I would most especially point out that a massive amount of the firepower that's been generated by the Oklahoma offense the past couple of seasons, especially this year, has been the tremendous improvement and impact of Baker Mayfield. The kid's personality/leadership as well as his skills are greatly responsible for much of the Sooner's place in the playoffs. Unless they can figure a way to clone him OU is going to be challenged next year to repeat the type of offensive dominance they've displayed so often.

I don't think the significance of the 1985 Miami game was immediately apparent, but it is seen as a watershed now. Was recognized as such pretty quickly back then. An OU NC may mean nothing, but maybe it will. I'm just raising the question. The potential seems to be there.

I agree that Baker Mayfield may be one-of-a-kind, but I thought Danny Wuerfful was, too. I wonder if Mayfield will be a Manning or a Wuerfull in the NFL. You never really know. But both QBs benefitted in college from great players surrounding them in great systems.

[HogBreath]

I am not convinced Jalen Hurts is a good enough of a downfield passer to win a NC.

He's not, sell out to stop the run, and put a spy on Hurts to slow down bama.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I am not convinced Jalen Hurts is a good enough of a downfield passer to win a NC.

Lincoln Riley's offense with Baker Mayfield can be slowed down.  Here is what occurred the last time Riley's offense with Mayfield at QB went up against Clemson's Defense.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400852733

It is possible that Riley's offense with Mayfield at QB is better now than then, but it is very likely that Clemson's Defense is better now than then (in fact, the 2017 Clemson DL is better than the 2015 Clemson DL).

I am not convinced that Jake Fromm can get it done against a non Auburn high-level defense.  Auburn's defense is really the only high-level defense that Fromm has faced this season.

The aspect that should be remembered about Kelly Bryant is that he doesn't have to be all-world.  He has elite talent at WR around him (Cain, Higgins, McCloud, Overton, Thompson, and the very sure handed Renfrow).

Yes, Clemson is the only team who is truly elite on both sides.  They're the favorite. 

And yes, my point about Hurts is more general too.  I don't think he's capable of delivering the FB through the air consistently enough to win the playoff.  The game plans will be...don't allow Bama's running game to beat you.  Force Hurts to win it instead.  I don't think he can.

[bphi11ips]

He's not, sell out to stop the run, and put a spy on Hurts to slow down bama.

Yep. Don't think Bama has the offense to get past Clemson.

[bennyl08]

Ironically, Bama probably lost that game because their offense, particularly their passing game, wasn't effective enough. 

Let's get some perspective, Clemson ran 99 plays in the game to Bama's 66 plays.  99 FRICKING PLAYS.  Almost unheard of.  Largely due to a bunch of Bama 3 and outs.  Eventually Bama just wore down.  And Clemson needed all the way to the very last second to win it too.  Eventually Clemson got it done, but it's offense needed a whole bunch of opportunities.  I'm in the minority, but Hurts was a liability in that game.  Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. 

Clemson's defense won that game, not their offense.  Or Bama's offense lost it.  Either way.

But hurts can run! So he can't be a liability!!! At least that seems to be the mindset of a lot of fans these days.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Yep. Don't think Bama has the offense to get past Clemson.

Just like last year.  That game was about offense alright, but not Clemson's offense.  It was about Bama's limitations at QB.  Their D still almost held off despite it all, but not quite.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

But hurts can run! So he can't be a liability!!! At least that seems to be the mindset of a lot of fans these days.

I think the mindset is having a passer who can run...Cam, Watson, Manziel, etc... 

Hurts is not that.

[LZH]

No! I want it just as it was 30 years ago. But, I'm still hip, right?

[ballz2thewall]

Here's a writeup i did after the 2014 season, specifically focusing on the 2015 sugar bowl [bama/osu] as a case study. it's sorta relevant to this discussion. this was an email to a pal, and i may have posted it on HV. can't recall.

______________________________________________


Finer points regarding defense and stamina.

Time of possession is huge in football.  Here, the focus is on defense. 

The defensive front is the most physically demanding part of the game. This is where stamina is first noticed.  The concept of seconds-in-effort is extremely important. 

I have an old friend that is a D1 DC.  He's coached DC in the SEC and elsewhere.  I got this comparison from him years ago.  He's not my closest friend, but we do visit on occasion. I see him on holidays and hunting trips. We always talk shop.  He was a salty head-hunter in high school and college; too small for big time though. Here's some of what he explained it to me years ago.  I've refined it with other studying, etc.

Compare to a known physical effort:  Overhead press with walking lunges. This is a fair representation to what the DL does each play on an average. Press 1/2max and walk 5 lunges. To simplify, convert the 5 lunges into 5 seconds.  Each second is a 1/2max overhead press and single lunge step.

Trainers know what this means.  The amount of weight in the press influences how many lunges one can do.  The number of lunges influences how much weight can be pressed. 

Each second-in-effort mounts up.  Two efforts of 6 seconds is much more demanding than two of 4.

IT IS ONLY SECONDS.  Yes; but it is under extreme effort.

Consider last nights Sugar Bowl and a few stats.  It's not the entire picture but it is illustrative.  Again, this is focusing on defense.

Bama had 5 scoring drives that averaged 1:46
OSU had 6 scoring drives that averaged 2:54.

in scoring drives alone the difference is telling. Bama's defense had more than double the seconds in effort than OSU.

Bama's total scoring time was 8:50 to OSU's  17:24.
So, for scoring time-of-possession, Bama played two games to OSU's one.

Non scoring time of possession was:
Bama 19:51
OSU 13:55

Bama averaged 1:475 per drive.
OSU averaged 2:06 per drive.

Per quarter time of possession and offensive scores are:
   Bama         OSU
1   6:11      14      8:49      6
2   5:12      7      9:48      14
3   7:36      7      7:24      7   7 interception return
4   9:21      7      5:39      8

1. Bama scored quick with 14 points, but very little clock time in the first quarter.  OSU score half as much but kept Bama's defense on the field for 218 more seconds of effort.
2. Points to OSU 2:1. Bama defense has 276 more seconds-in-effort.
3. Dead heat on time, but OSU has points.
4. Bama wins the time, but OSU scores.

Some reasonable conclusions are possible.

The first half was good to Bama's offense, but it's defense was pushed with extra effort because of the clock time in OSU's favor.  The scores were one point apart, so basically even.

At the end of the half, OSU's defense is more rested than Bama.  It should therefore play closer to it's maximum than Bama.  The last two quarters bear this out with the clock time and the score.

At the end of the first half the score was even, but Bama's defense had 494 more seconds-in-effort than OSU.  494 more walking overhead press lunges.

In the first half OSU's offense allowed its defense rest.  The defense paid it back by allowing OSU's offense to match scores with Bama in the second half.  It gave a bonus with an interception return for a score.

OSU better manipulated the game with it's offensive balance and clock control, thereby allowing it's defense to keep Bama's offense in check, just enough to win the game.

Hidden conclusion.  OSU won the game in the first half, despite trailing by one point.  It withered Bama's defense while preserving it's own. 494 seconds of extreme effort worth.

General conclusion.  A team must consider it's offenses influence on the stamina of its defense.  Scoring fast at the start of the game can be deadly to one's team when competing against similar competition. IF A PROLIFIC OFFENSE DOES NOT SCORE, it's defense will not win the game

_______________________________________________

{{a follow up email to the same pal}}}
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i've been doing some study, and sort of use auburn as a control team.

here's some telling info

in 2008, before gus,  offense rank 112  defense 15
in 2009, gus comes, offense rank 20, defense 73.

virtually all other teams that run prolific scoring offenses show the same pattern.
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