Why so much emphasis on Texas recruiting.

[Atlhogfan1]

TCU has beaten OU once since joining the B12.  The SECW has 4 programs who recruit on OUs level or better.   They can win games recruiting mostly Texas as so much of their competition does as well.  Not a comparable situation to ours.   

[elksnort]

Why go to Harps or Kroger and buy the store brands? 

haha, nice!

[IronHog]

TCU has beaten OU once since joining the B12.  The SECW has 4 programs who recruit on OUs level or better.   They can win games recruiting mostly Texas as so much of their competition does as well.  Not a comparable situation to ours.   

They were far from impressive playing the Hogs this year

[Hogtimes]

a Big reason is we weren't in the SEC. I went to the Sugar Bowl after the 80 season with high hopes we could play with Bama. I was shocked how much bigger & faster their players were .  Fortunately, Bear put in his scrubs midway 3rd qtr & they still dominated us. Our success in the SWC was a mirage because we only played 1 (TX) or maybe 2 decent teams per year.

Exactly...I totallly agree

[elksnort]

195bc

That was an excellent break down.  Very interesting.

Hey Ched and anyone else that wants to respond, I watched (on my PC) my old high school (Atlantic) a couple of weeks ago play for the 8A state championship. Unfortunately they lost another state championship, but what I noticed from Atlantic High School and DR. Phillips High school is that they both play very good defense. The kind of defense that I don't think any one in Arkansas has played in awhile (maybe since the early 2000s with Little Rock Central) and frankly probably a lot better than them. I just wonder do they play this kind of defense in Texas? Because apparently, they still do in Florida.

[Hogtimes]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2017/12/18/16780636/best-recruits-2018-state-rankings

Based on those statistics we should be recruiting Texas, Georgia and Louisiana very hard.  They by far outstrip  Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas

[bphi11ips]

Based on that we share borders with states that contain 85 Blue Chip Recruits(including Arkansas's 2). That's good news but Florida alone has 65. Add their border states of Georgia and Alabama and that's 115 Blue Chippers in what is a smaller geographic area than that of Arkansas and the combined areas of the states we border.

Do the numbers in that article pass the smell test when compared to the actual numbers of NFL players and their home states presented in the other link? 

PP mentioned ratios.  If you do the math, Florida produced just under 1 NFL player per million residents.  Arkansas produced just over 1 per million.  These are actual numbers based on known data.  Yet, SBNNation publishes an article projecting over 3 "blue-chippers" per million in Florida and .67 per million in Arkansas. 

Viewed critically, claims concerning recruiting numbers sometimes make no common sense. 

[Cotton]

Do the numbers in that article pass the smell test when compared to the actual numbers of NFL players and their home states presented in the other link? 

PP mentioned ratios.  If you do the math, Florida produced just under 1 NFL player per million residents.  Arkansas produced just over 1 per million.  These are actual numbers based on known data.  Yet, SBNNation publishes an article projecting over 3 "blue-chippers" per million in Florida and .67 per million in Arkansas. 

Viewed critically, claims concerning recruiting numbers sometimes make no common sense.

Good post.

[hogsanity]

Do the numbers in that article pass the smell test when compared to the actual numbers of NFL players and their home states presented in the other link? 

PP mentioned ratios.  If you do the math, Florida produced just under 1 NFL player per million residents.  Arkansas produced just over 1 per million.  These are actual numbers based on known data.  Yet, SBNNation publishes an article projecting over 3 "blue-chippers" per million in Florida and .67 per million in Arkansas. 

Viewed critically, claims concerning recruiting numbers sometimes make no common sense. 

Not all blue chippers turn out to be nfl players and not all NFL players were blue chip recruits. Look how many players are in the nfl that played outside the p5 or outside of fbs. The come from fcs schools and in some cases even lower levels.

[bphi11ips]

Not all blue chippers turn out to be nfl players and not all NFL players were blue chip recruits. Look how many players are in the nfl that played outside the p5 or outside of fbs. The come from fcs schools and in some cases even lower levels.

That is entirely beside the point and I suspect you are intelligent enough to realize it. 

[Hugo Bezdek]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2017/12/18/16780636/best-recruits-2018-state-rankings

That's good info. I found the link to the former Nebraska assistant that had done some analytics on recruiting. https://huskermath.blogspot.com/2013/02/location-location-location-part-1.html. Again, the average distance that recruits live from all FBS schools is just over 1000 miles, but the average distance they live from the schools they sign with is 512 miles. That makes sense when you think about driving distances. That's about a 7-8 hour drive, not so far you can't get home for a holiday break, or your parents can't drive up to see you play.

If you take that a step further and look at the amount of competition for kids in certain metro areas, I think you can also learn a little about the approach we've been taking to recruiting. Here's how many P5 schools there are within 500 miles of some of these cities:

Dallas, TX - 10 schools in the SEC and B12 (UA is 330 miles, only six are closer than UA)
Houston, TX - 7 schools in the SEC and B12 (UA is 535 miles, just outside the radius)
New Orleans, LA - 6 schools in the SEC (UA is 614 miles. There are another 4 SEC schools closer than UA)
Atlanta, GA - 21 schools in the SEC and ACC, plus WVU which is 501 miles. (UA is 700 miles. Another 4 SEC/ACC schools are closer)
Miami, FL - 3 schools in the SEC and ACC. (UA is 1361 miles, but Miami is literally close to nobody outside of Florida)

Obviously distance isn't the only factor kids consider when deciding where to go to school (coaches, tradition, facilities, playing time, etc).  But I think it's definitely a factor when they're undecided and trying to eliminate options. It's not enough to know where the talent is, you've go to go where you can get your foot in the door, and then convince them to come visit you on campus, and get Mom and Dad to be on board with it.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Do the numbers in that article pass the smell test when compared to the actual numbers of NFL players and their home states presented in the other link? 

PP mentioned ratios.  If you do the math, Florida produced just under 1 NFL player per million residents.  Arkansas produced just over 1 per million.  These are actual numbers based on known data.  Yet, SBNNation publishes an article projecting over 3 "blue-chippers" per million in Florida and .67 per million in Arkansas. 

Viewed critically, claims concerning recruiting numbers sometimes make no common sense. 

My post has nothing to do with the NFL, only the number of players cited as coming from particular states, how many of those adjoin Arkansas and those that adjoin Florida.

Don't know if the numbers pass the "smell test" or not.

[bphi11ips]

My post has nothing to do with the NFL, only the number of players cited as coming from particular states, how many of those adjoin Arkansas and those that adjoin Florida.

Don't know if the numbers pass the "smell test" or not.

I wasn't arguing with anything you said, just asking a question. 

It's been about 35 years since I took Forecasting, but I'll bet you could design a regression model from the information contained in this thread that would show that 65 "blue chips" are a couple of standard deviations from the expected mean in Florida based upon population and Florida players currently on NFL rosters. The question would then become the cause of the deviation. Could bias favor areas where camps and media proliferate?  Could bias be based upon perception?  The same model could be applied to Arkansas.

[DLUXHOG]

I'd argue Louisiana is as fertile and as important as Texas, imo.

Either you don't understand simple math (uhhh... 10 > 1) or you are obviously retarded....

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I wasn't arguing with anything you said, just asking a question. 

It's been about 35 years since I took Forecasting, but I'll bet you could design a regression model from the information contained in this thread that would show that 65 "blue chips" are a couple of standard deviations from the expected mean in Florida based upon population and Florida players currently on NFL rosters. The question would then become the cause of the deviation. Could bias favor areas where camps and media proliferate?  Could bias be based upon perception?  The same model could be applied to Arkansas.

Couldn't find anything like this more recent (though there may be something that I missed) but this covers 2008-2013.

Here's the top 20 for that period of time.

Per Capita Production of FBS Recruits by State (2008-2013)
   
US Average    0.75    
    Rate per 100K    Rank    vs. US Avg   
LA        1.83           1           2.44x
AL        1.75           2           2.33x
FL        1.69           3           2.25x
GA        1.62           4           2.16x
HI        1.54           5           2.05x
DC        1.43           6           1.90x
MS        1.42           7           1.89x
TX        1.41           8           1.88x
OH        1.31           9           1.75x
OK        0.99          10           1.32x
UT        0.90          11           1.21x
SC        0.82          12           1.09x
AR        0.78          13           1.03x
MD        0.69          14           0.92x
TN        0.66          15           0.88x
VA        0.65          16           0.86x
CA        0.63          17           0.84x
NC        0.62          18           0.83x
MI        0.61          19           0.81x
IN         0.56          20          0.75x

More rankings are found inside the article.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/9/11/4718442/college-football-state-texas-california-florida

Then there is this that relates to states that produced NFL Players.

You may need to click the "# of Pros" column to sort by the largest number produced by state.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/friv/birthplaces.htm

And there is this that relates to 4 & 5 star talent produced from 2013-2017.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/6/28/12040586/rankings-state-stars-florida-texas-california

I'll leave all of you to debate the results.