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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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McHogLovin


WILL CLINTON

Quote from: McHogLovin on December 20, 2013, 09:37:08 pm
We all knew this long ago   ;)

haha, yeah, I guess you are right. I figure as long as I'm not hurting anyone, and it's not affecting my bill-paying ability, who cares. I wait all year for these 4-5 months, and I don't really bet on anything else seriously, so I'm going to maximize my bets.

Also, damn sportsbook having the in-game live betting has really increased my total bets this year.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

 

MuskogeeHogFan

Anybody ran the numbers on the NC game between Auburn and FSU?

Looks like the Vegas numbers are off on this game.

I've got a total of about 55 and FSU winning by 13, 34-21. Vegas currently has it at FSU -8 with a total of 67.5.

I see Alabama winning by 10 over Oklahoma unless Alabama returns a punt or an INT for a TD. I've got about 48 for the total.

I've got the total on the Okla State-Missouri game as being 57 as opposed to the posted 62 and Missouri -1.

Thoughts?
Go Hogs Go!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

all I could say about today's card is it's all a bunch of crap.  But I'm playing

Washington ST -6 / 2 units
USC -6 / 2 units
Suny Buffalo +2.5 / 2 units

tied three teams above in a 3 teamer 1 unit to win 6

Im not playing that Louisiana crap game at all.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on December 21, 2013, 10:44:44 am
Anybody ran the numbers on the NC game between Auburn and FSU?

Looks like the Vegas numbers are off on this game.

I've got a total of about 55 and FSU winning by 13, 34-21. Vegas currently has it at FSU -8 with a total of 67.5.

I see Alabama winning by 10 over Oklahoma unless Alabama returns a punt or an INT for a TD. I've got about 48 for the total.

I've got the total on the Okla State-Missouri game as being 57 as opposed to the posted 62 and Missouri -1.

Thoughts?


I like Missou and the over.

I think the line on FSU and Auburn at 8 is done so because of variables having nothing to do with these teams in a head to head match up.  I think part of it is the SEC success in the SEC championship game previous year.  I also think they are undervaluing FL ST's body of work because of the conference they play in.  When your conference championship game has you going up against Duke something is bad wrong. 

who knows

I think Bama destroys OU.
Let's make some waves.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 21, 2013, 10:59:01 am
I think the line on FSU and Auburn at 8 is done so because of variables having nothing to do with these teams in a head to head match up.  I think part of it is the SEC success in the SEC championship game previous year.  I also think they are undervaluing FL ST's body of work because of the conference they play in.  When your conference championship game has you going up against Duke something is bad wrong. 

who knows

I think Bama destroys OU.

I hear you about Auburn-FSU, but FSU destroyed Duke and while there may be some level of favor for the SEC, FSU appears to be far and away more than a 8 point favorite. Maybe I am wrong, but maybe not too.

We will see about OU vs Alabama but it might be a better match up than the odds makers predict.

What about Oklahoma State vs Missouri. That looks like a very entertaining game.
Go Hogs Go!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on December 21, 2013, 11:05:09 am
I hear you about Auburn-FSU, but FSU destroyed Duke and while there may be some level of favor for the SEC, FSU appears to be far and away more than a 8 point favorite. Maybe I am wrong, but maybe not too.

We will see about OU vs Alabama but it might be a better match up than the odds makers predict.

What about Oklahoma State vs Missouri. That looks like a very entertaining game.

My thing with OU is that starting QB play is beyond horrible.  If Bama puts the Sooners in a spot where they have to throw it's big time trouble.  I would bet Bama if they were giving 20.  Of course the tide could have a let down because of not playing for national title. One thing that makes these bowls so difficult.

I lean toward Missouri.  This okie st offense while explosive is not the same we've come to know the past few seasons. They must run.  Of course Aubie had no problem running on them.  I lean toward Missouri and the over as of now.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Muskogee somehow I put I like Missouri and the over in your post when I quoted earlier. Probably why it looked like I didn't comment on it.  Sorry not sure how to correct that.
Let's make some waves.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 21, 2013, 12:16:20 pm
My thing with OU is that starting QB play is beyond horrible.  If Bama puts the Sooners in a spot where they have to throw it's big time trouble.  I would bet Bama if they were giving 20.  Of course the tide could have a let down because of not playing for national title. One thing that makes these bowls so difficult.

I lean toward Missouri.  This okie st offense while explosive is not the same we've come to know the past few seasons. They must run.  Of course Aubie had no problem running on them.  I lean toward Missouri and the over as of now.

As far as Missouri vs. OSU goes, I think the key isn't fumbles as much as it is INT's by either team.

I think OSU has about 162 rushing and about 262 passing.

I think Missouri has about 185 rushing and another 251 passing.

Close game that comes down to INT's and where those occur perhaps giving the team who has those INT's, an advantage.

Go Hogs Go!

WILL CLINTON

I like FSU by far and away more than the spread indicates. Let's be honest. Talent nor coaching got Auburn to where they are, pure luck did. After the Georgia and Bama games that they should have lost, they got the weakest East Champ in years, maybe decades. I mean, in a year when Vandy beats Tenn, Florida and Georgia, you know the east is down. I think FSU dominates them because Auburn is more lucky than good, and FSU (like the rest of the CFB world) is tired of the SEC's dominance. On the plus side, Auburn will always be remembered as the SEC team that couldn't get it done in the BCSNG like Arkansas will always be remembered as the SEC team who couldn't beat OSU.

I like Ok St but I don't really have any real reason for it, and I agree 100% with Jeff on the Bama v OU game. I don't see any way OU can keep up with Bama, and they might not score.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Added
USC in game line of -4.5  1*
2h Washington St pick'em  1*
2h Wash St v Colorado St o34.5  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 21, 2013, 01:46:12 pm
I like FSU by far and away more than the spread indicates. Let's be honest. Talent nor coaching got Auburn to where they are, pure luck did. After the Georgia and Bama games that they should have lost, they got the weakest East Champ in years, maybe decades. I mean, in a year when Vandy beats Tenn, Florida and Georgia, you know the east is down. I think FSU dominates them because Auburn is more lucky than good, and FSU (like the rest of the CFB world) is tired of the SEC's dominance. On the plus side, Auburn will always be remembered as the SEC team that couldn't get it done in the BCSNG like Arkansas will always be remembered as the SEC team who couldn't beat OSU.

I like Ok St but I don't really have any real reason for it, and I agree 100% with Jeff on the Bama v OU game. I don't see any way OU can keep up with Bama, and they might not score.

Point taken on FSU, but ehhhhhhh I will look at it harder closer to game time. What was the noles signature win? Clemson the team that lays a complete egg once or twice every season regardless of talent?

I'm not sold on Fl St or Winston.

Yes auburn got lucky against Georgia.  The Bama game they might win even if it goes to OT.   This is the question you have to ask yourself.  Would the noles be undefeated with Auburns schedule? Maybe they would I dunno.  Maybe they would have one loss just like Auburn.

I'm simply not sold on the Noles. People said the same about Oregon and Ohio still vs the SEC previous years. I smell fish!
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 21, 2013, 01:46:12 pm
I like FSU by far and away more than the spread indicates. Let's be honest. Talent nor coaching got Auburn to where they are, pure luck did. After the Georgia and Bama games that they should have lost, they got the weakest East Champ in years, maybe decades. I mean, in a year when Vandy beats Tenn, Florida and Georgia, you know the east is down. I think FSU dominates them because Auburn is more lucky than good, and FSU (like the rest of the CFB world) is tired of the SEC's dominance. On the plus side, Auburn will always be remembered as the SEC team that couldn't get it done in the BCSNG like Arkansas will always be remembered as the SEC team who couldn't beat OSU.

I like Ok St but I don't really have any real reason for it, and I agree 100% with Jeff on the Bama v OU game. I don't see any way OU can keep up with Bama, and they might not score.

Will you and I don't often disagree and even so generally on minor things. Without coaching Auburn would not be in position for that luck to matter.
Let's make some waves.

 

WILL CLINTON

Wash St has a 2 TD lead for most of the game. Then falls apart in the last 3 minutes to lose by a FG.

Great start to bowl season.../sarcasm
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on December 21, 2013, 10:44:44 am
Anybody ran the numbers on the NC game between Auburn and FSU?

Looks like the Vegas numbers are off on this game.

I've got a total of about 55 and FSU winning by 13, 34-21. Vegas currently has it at FSU -8 with a total of 67.5.

I see Alabama winning by 10 over Oklahoma unless Alabama returns a punt or an INT for a TD. I've got about 48 for the total.

I've got the total on the Okla State-Missouri game as being 57 as opposed to the posted 62 and Missouri -1.

Thoughts?

Alabama will destroy OU. I'm calling 38-6. I don't see how OU moves the ball against Bama's D with Bell playing QB. He's such a terrible passer, Bama should be able to focus on the run more without faltering on pass D because it simply doesn't require as much attention. 31-14 being a worst case scenario for Bama here.

nughaud

I was going to bet this non-guaranteed arb/hedge, by picking the Penn State women in the NCAA Championship volleyball match.

The bet was to pick the following 2 bets
Penn State wins 3-0, -110
Penn State wins 3-1, +265

Bet #1:             $200.00
Bet #2:       $377.14
Total Bet:    $577.14
$ Profit:    $142.86
% Profit:    24.7525%

This of course is assuming Penn State wins against Wisconsin in the NCAA Women's championship.
You could have lowered your wager, as that amount is pretty high for a 25% non-guaranteed return, but I'd guess the odds of getting one of the two outcomes above are probably closer to 93%.

I didn't bet it, but I wold have, maybe not for that amount, but $288 for $71.

Anyway, just thought I'd talk about something else besides football for once.


nughaud

Ohio St has no defense and they are iffy with passing the ball.
Clemson is no defensive juggernaut, but I'd take +3 with their offense.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: nughaud on December 21, 2013, 09:13:06 pm
I was going to bet this non-guaranteed arb/hedge, by picking the Penn State women in the NCAA Championship volleyball match.

The bet was to pick the following 2 bets
Penn State wins 3-0, -110
Penn State wins 3-1, +265

Bet #1:             $200.00
Bet #2:       $377.14
Total Bet:    $577.14
$ Profit:    $142.86
% Profit:    24.7525%

This of course is assuming Penn State wins against Wisconsin in the NCAA Women's championship.
You could have lowered your wager, as that amount is pretty high for a 25% non-guaranteed return, but I'd guess the odds of getting one of the two outcomes above are probably closer to 93%.

I didn't bet it, but I wold have, maybe not for that amount, but $288 for $71.

Anyway, just thought I'd talk about something else besides football for once.



WTH is wrong with you.
Let's make some waves.

nughaud

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 21, 2013, 10:37:27 pm
WTH is wrong with you.

Haha, I didn't bet it, but the match just ended and Penn State won 3-1.

Oh well.. back to football.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: nughaud on December 21, 2013, 11:00:58 pm
Haha, I didn't bet it, but the match just ended and Penn State won 3-1.

Oh well.. back to football.

:) wack Job!
Let's make some waves.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: widespreadsooie on December 21, 2013, 06:00:32 pm
Alabama will destroy OU. I'm calling 38-6. I don't see how OU moves the ball against Bama's D with Bell playing QB. He's such a terrible passer, Bama should be able to focus on the run more without faltering on pass D because it simply doesn't require as much attention. 31-14 being a worst case scenario for Bama here.

Could be. You just never know which Oklahoma team is going to show up. But I agree about the lack of passing and that may be why Vegas has Alabama at -15, because they fully expect Bama to pick one off and take it to the EZ.
Go Hogs Go!

McKdaddy

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on December 22, 2013, 05:30:39 am
You just never know which Oklahoma team is going to show up.

Isn't that the truth.

Due to OU's passing, or lack thereof, I'd load the box against them, stuff the run, and make the qb run for daylight.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

nughaud

If Bama plays like they should, they should win by 17-21 points.
I think OU was debating on which QB to start, due to the fact that Bell, a redshirt junior wasn't throwing the ball worth crap.
Trevor Knight who is the redshirt freshman is a running QB, which Bama has always had problems with.

I wouldn't be surprised if Knight starts or plays a lot for Bama. If he doesn't, then I think it will be a closer game, than if Bell plays most of the game.


 

DadVader1

The rating systems overwhelmingly like OU, but that is unfiltered & the game doesn't fall into any noteworthy trends.  My concern with Bama is whether they might be disappointed in not playing in the BCSNCG and whether their crop of NFL talent might be looking forward to the draft and protecting their bodies.

I'm not thrilled with the spreadsheet leans this time.  The three that stand out/stood out are Buffalo (L), Houston, and Duke.  My gut tells me that the edges that they're giving Houston & Duke against SEC teams are based on stats/records compiled against inferior competition.  I doubt that I'll play any of these.

Louisville looks interesting.  One of the better rating systems, with an excellent record predicting Louisville games has them winning, and it falls in one nice trend for that system.  QB edge goes to Lou, the stats definitely lean Lou, and several Lou players are from the area near the bowl game.

mckinneyhog5

Haven't played football in over a year but since I have been unable to bet horse racing here in Texas I looked at my betting account and noticed I had 40 bucks in it.

Here are my Plays for today

Jags +4 1/2 straight for 40.00

New England +1
Green Bay -1
Seattle - 8 1/2
Detroit - 9 1/2

$20 Four team parlay.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz

Im on the bsu money line as well.. gettin whipped

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Spikes

You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

WILL CLINTON

I can't remember who said they wanted Billy Walters plays, but he played Utah St +3, and I don't even think that's out there anywhere that I can find.

I'm also playing

BG -6.5  1*
NIU pick'em  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Spikes

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 26, 2013, 02:04:24 pm
I can't remember who said they wanted Billy Walters plays, but he played Utah St +3, and I don't even think that's out there anywhere that I can find.

I'm also playing

BG -6.5  1*
NIU pick'em  1*


It was me. Thanks for letting me know.

So your betting against him?
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

yraciv

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 26, 2013, 02:04:24 pm
I can't remember who said they wanted Billy Walters plays, but he played Utah St +3, and I don't even think that's out there anywhere that I can find.

I'm also playing

BG -6.5  1*
NIU pick'em  1*

Well best of luck, but I'd be on the other side of both these. Only playing Pitt +7 though.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Spikes on December 26, 2013, 04:36:12 pm

It was me. Thanks for letting me know.

So your betting against him?

Yeah. The thing about BW is you never know if he's putting those bets out there because that's what he's betting or to move the line in his favor. Ive been on NIU since the bowls were released, so I'm sticking with them.

Added NIU +2 1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

December 27, 2013, 10:21:14 am #6084 Last Edit: December 27, 2013, 06:19:28 pm by WILL CLINTON
UGHHHH

4-8 so far in bowl game bets, and currently riding an 0-5 streak. It has to get better today...doesn't it?

BYU +3  1*
Minnesota -5  1*
Marshall -2.5  1*

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hooch

I haven't playing much lately but going to play the bowls. 

I am taking Mayland +3

Syracuse/Minn  under 47.5

BYU +3.5

jkstock04

BYU +3.5 looks good to me for tonight. Washington will be hanging out with an interim head coach and we all know how awesome that can be...guy has never been in a head coaching role. We'll see but I think Washington will look sloppy.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Hawgndaaz

not sure where you have marshall at +3, they're -3 most places

arkfanchip

I do not post in here very much and I know most disagree but ohio state over clemson big. Osu corners are great. Clemson has a hard time running the ball. Osu will plow through clemsons d. Osu 38-20.  I only bet after I have watched 5 games of each team on youtube.

McHogLovin

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 27, 2013, 10:21:14 am
UGHHHH

4-8 so far in bowl game bets, and currently riding an 0-5 streak. It has to get better today...doesn't it?

BYU +3  1*
Minnesota -5  1*
Marshall +2.5  1*




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbbQsKNvlXg&feature=player_detailpage

Here Will, this is the best piece of advice myself and A.R. can give you. 

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: McHogLovin on December 27, 2013, 03:39:30 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbbQsKNvlXg&feature=player_detailpage

Here Will, this is the best piece of advice myself and A.R. can give you. 

I love it. I watched that show until they killed Jimmy.

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 27, 2013, 11:36:45 am
not sure where you have marshall at +3, they're -3 most places

You are right. Not that it mattered, but I did have them at -3.  I'll change that.

I also added

Minny v Syracuse u43.5  1*

Quote from: arkfanchip on December 27, 2013, 02:54:44 pm
I do not post in here very much and I know most disagree but ohio state over clemson big. Osu corners are great. Clemson has a hard time running the ball. Osu will plow through clemsons d. Osu 38-20.  I only bet after I have watched 5 games of each team on youtube.

I'm leaning OSU also.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

widespreadsooie

After watching this first half I parlayed Cuse +3/u23 2H. Haven't bet football in awhile. Been doing some CBB but just haven't started posting plays yet. 14-11 so far.

WILL CLINTON

Added:

2h Minny v Cuse o21  1*
2h Minny -.5  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

this game is a horrible sight to behold.

Added:

Cuse -3.5  2*
Cuse v Minny u26.5  1*

just to cover my other bets.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

BYU v Washington u61.5  1*
BYU V Washington u68.5  1*
BYU +5.5  1*
BYU +10.5  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Well gents I'm back from another of my Hogville imposed vacations.  Let's make a little money today.

When I glanced up to read what I missed since gone it looks like a lot of people took a hit on BYU last night. Sorry to hear it.  Will I did not even try to decipher how many different beta you had on that game, but hope some of them at least went your way to help balance it out. Ya maniac :)
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I know I know call me an idiot but. Notre Dame -14 / 2 units. 

Cincy +3 / 3 units bought a half point

Louisville -4 / dime play

K St -5.5 / 3 units

Let's make some waves.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 28, 2013, 08:10:21 am
I know I know call me an idiot but. Notre Dame -14 / 2 units. 

Cincy +3 / 3 units bought a half point

Louisville -4 / dime play

K St -5.5 / 3 units



Haven't ran the numbers but I agree about Notre Dame, they "should" win big.

Cincy looks to be a close winner over UNC.

Louisville over Miami.

Hard to say about K-State and how they will play, but Michigan under normal circumstances should beat K-State, but with Michigan's starting QB out and a kid who has only thrown 9 passes all year stepping in, you may be right.
Go Hogs Go!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on December 28, 2013, 08:34:04 am
Haven't ran the numbers but I agree about Notre Dame, they "should" win big.

Cincy looks to be a close winner over UNC.

Louisville over Miami.

Hard to say about K-State and how they will play, but Michigan under normal circumstances should beat K-State, but with Michigan's starting QB out and a kid who has only thrown 9 passes all year stepping in, you may be right.



At the very least there will be football on the tube right.
Let's make some waves.