musings on recruiting.

[DeltaBoy]

It been pretty wild this year on Hogville and to the point the BEAR was woke up and had to maul some folks and Lanny had to break open that new case of TUMS I sent him.  I remember back in the day we didn't have any worldly idea who the Hogs were after unless someone seen one of the staff in your area.  Orville said little about it until the weekend after NSD.  And usually it was to Crow about who we stole from Texas.

Otherwise we never thought much about it vs what we see and hear the past 3-8 years.

IMO relax and enjoy those who sign and forget about those who did not.

[DeltaBoy]

Also back then with no WWW or Twitter you didn't have to worry about anybody attacking some one for changing their minds.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

Insert movie comment

[attachment deleted by admin]

[TeedupHigh]

Change is harder than anything anyone has to face in life!  Nothing else is as hard as CHANGE! Nothing.

[DeltaBoy]

Well it NSD and things are looking pretty good now we can go back to being sane.

[supersaint]

Football and recruiting are just like algebra. It's all about angles.

[LightHog]

Do you mean geometry?

[Rison Razor Hog]

Football and recruiting are just like algebra. It's all about angles.

Do you mean geometry?

I reckon its kind of early, yet... Probably not yet fully awake. Lol.

[flippinhogmana]

Also back then with no WWW or Twitter you didn't have to worry about anybody attacking some one for changing their minds.

I will grant you that twitter is a new phenomena but the world wide web has been around for over twenty years.  As far as following hog recruiting, I started doing that mostly using the www back in 2000, fifteen years ago.  I was pretty involved back then.

[TexHog188]

What time is the presser?  I assume 4:00 PM?

[HogMantheIntruder]

What time is the presser?  I assume 4:00 PM?

12:15 is what I've heard.

[MJ2]

Ranked 10th in the SEC in recruiting.   That may be all that needs to be said.

[Jackrabbit Hog]

Ranked 10th in the SEC in recruiting.   That may be all that needs to be said.

I used to think that way, but not anymore.  Out of 44 starters in the Super Bowl, there wasn't a single guy who was a 5 star coming out of high school.  It's speculation, a crap shoot.  It's about filling specific needs, identifying guys who are willing to be coached and to improve and not be selfish.  It's about luck and finding the right fit and staying healthy.  It's about not being a knucklehead and getting into trouble or flunking out. 

Ask me about this class in a couple of years and then I'll tell you how it ranks in the SEC.  Until then, nobody knows.

[DeltaBoy]

Great Day Great Class and What a day to be a Hog Fan.

[HogMantheIntruder]

Ranked 10th in the SEC in recruiting.   That may be all that needs to be said.

Not really.  We're about on par with the middle of the SEC, and I think we've addressed our needs very well.  Is it where we need to be to win the SEC?  No.  But this is what this staff can do after two SEC wins in two seasons, and it's still one of the better classes we've brought in.  Just think what happens after we win 8-9 games and spend the entire season in the top 25 next year.  On top of that, some of our guys who have been committed for a long time don't get as much love because they're not taking official visits to other big time programs.  This is a very, very good class.

[Fatty McGee]

I used to think that way, but not anymore.  Out of 44 starters in the Super Bowl, there wasn't a single guy who was a 5 star coming out of high school.  It's speculation, a crap shoot.  It's about filling specific needs, identifying guys who are willing to be coached and to improve and not be selfish.  It's about luck and finding the right fit and staying healthy.  It's about not being a knucklehead and getting into trouble or flunking out. 

Ask me about this class in a couple of years and then I'll tell you how it ranks in the SEC.  Until then, nobody knows.

Both of you overstate the case.  10th in the SEC but there isn't as big a difference between probably 7 and 20 as one would think.  Just like in the actual rankings, there's not that much difference in 10-20 or so. 

That said, recruiting rankings do matter, as recruiting rankings tend to reflect actual rankings, because talent matters about 5x as much as coaching.

[Jackrabbit Hog]

Both of you overstate the case.  10th in the SEC but there isn't as big a difference between probably 7 and 20 as one would think.  Just like in the actual rankings, there's not that much difference in 10-20 or so. 

That said, recruiting rankings do matter, as recruiting rankings tend to reflect actual rankings, because talent matters about 5x as much as coaching.

My point is I don't get worked up about someone else's opinion of our recruiting class.  I'll trust our coaches to target and work hard to get the guys they want.  I'll pass judgment on the class after I've seen the kids play a couple of years.

[redeye]

Ranked 10th in the SEC in recruiting.   That may be all that needs to be said.

Ranked 3rd in the B1G, Big-XII and ACC.

[DeltaBoy]

We got a good class on paper and from what Coach BB did at Whiskey I expect them to regrade in 4 years way higher.

[longpig]

Ranked 10th in the SEC in recruiting.   That may be all that needs to be said.

Would be ranked 3rd to 5th in any of the other P5 conferences.

[DeltaBoy]

I will grant you that twitter is a new phenomena but the world wide web has been around for over twenty years.  As far as following hog recruiting, I started doing that mostly using the www back in 2000, fifteen years ago.  I was pretty involved back then.

I did not get going until 2004-5. When I found Hogville and Fearless Friday.

[12247]

I was not a huge fan of BB when he came to Arkansas, still am not over excited about the offense, special teams, over all kicking game, etc.  BUT, you and I should always give credit where credit is due.  This Head Coach is bringing in the type of players he likes to see on a team.  Not to say he wouldn't choose a few others if he had the opportunity but what he is getting fits his choice of style.  These are the best players considering style that Arkansas has seen since Hatfield was HC.  The recruiting is doing great at this time.  AND, KNOCK ON WOOD, the Kids on our team are staying out of trouble for the most part. BB is doing what he is paid to do.  Hopefully, his choice of OC can get the offense to looking like an SEC offense.  And then on to the Special Teams.  Maybe they'll look special soon. 

It has often been said that Recruiting is the Backbone and I gotta admit, that area is much improved.  Very much improved.

[DeltaBoy]

Yep Special Teams need some help.

[Russ22]

I used to think that way, but not anymore.  Out of 44 starters in the Super Bowl, there wasn't a single guy who was a 5 star coming out of high school.  It's speculation, a crap shoot.  It's about filling specific needs, identifying guys who are willing to be coached and to improve and not be selfish.  It's about luck and finding the right fit and staying healthy.  It's about not being a knucklehead and getting into trouble or flunking out. 

Ask me about this class in a couple of years and then I'll tell you how it ranks in the SEC.  Until then, nobody knows.

That Super Bowl anomaly is a "neat fact", but more relevant is how many 4* and 5* played in the CFB playoff. The recruiting rankings do matter and anyone who thinks they don't is deluded:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/top-ten-signing-classes-are-necessary-for-national-titles-020515
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/5/5382140/recruiting-matters-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right

According to Dave Bartoo at the College Football Matrix, CFB games are decided by TLC = Talent, Location, and Coaching.

Talent: At the beginning of 2014 Arkansas was 27th [http://cfbmatrix.com/talent-rankings-2014/]
Location: Home teams of course get a bump...
Coaching: Bielema is slightly above average [http://cfbmatrix.com/current-coach-effect-ranks-p5s/]

The 2015 signings bumped Arkansas 7 spots in Talent -  that is significant:
http://cfbmatrix.com/true-composite-recruiting-ranks-stats/

However, the Hogs are 7th in the SEC West in Composite Talent (ouch).

Final note, Charlie Strong is basically the worst coach in the "Coach Effect" ranking. That's why the Hogs kicked the everlovin' stuffin' out of Texas.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Final note, Charlie Strong is basically the worst coach in the "Coach Effect" ranking. That's why the Hogs kicked the everlovin' stuffin' out of Texas.

Umm, no.

Bielema was in his second year here, Strong in his first year there.  That's a significant difference.

Charlie followed a lazy azz who had let talent fall way, WAY below normal UT standards. 

And the biggest difference in the game is that talent drop was nowhere more huge than at QB -- we had one, they didn't.

[Russ22]

Umm, no.

Bielema was in his second year here, Strong in his first year there.  That's a significant difference.

Charlie followed a lazy azz who had let talent fall way, WAY below normal UT standards. 

And the biggest difference in the game is that talent drop was nowhere more huge than at QB -- we had one, they didn't.

I don't make up the Coach Effect. He was bad at Louisville and is bad at Texas.  Bielema is above average and had a hungry team.

Finally, a QB is essential for winning in CFB and Texas just signed another WR to play QB for them (Locksley).

[bigdaddyhawg]

I don't make up the Coach Effect. He was bad at Louisville and is bad at Texas.  Bielema is above average and had a hungry team.

Finally, a QB is essential for winning in CFB and Texas just signed another WR to play QB for them (Locksley).

I understand you were taking your summation there from that analytic.  All I can say if "Coaching Effect" must be a pretty lousy one if it says the work Charlie did at UL was "bad". 

Here's the deal with analytics: they are only as good as the person who designed them.

If I designed an analytical evaluator for coaching, and it told me Strong was bad at UL, then I'd know I'd have to go back and rework my analytics.

[HogMantheIntruder]

I understand you were taking your summation there from that analytic.  All I can say if "Coaching Effect" must be a pretty lousy one if it says the work Charlie did at UL was "bad". 

Here's the deal with analytics: they are only as good as the person who designed them.

If I designed an analytical evaluator for coaching, and it told me Strong was bad at UL, then I'd know I'd have to go back and rework my analytics.

Well played sir!

[hogman64]

Ranked 10th in the SEC in recruiting.   That may be all that needs to be said.

Really?  so as far as you are  concerned 10th in the SEC and 50 spots nationally  behind the top 9 and 10th in the SEC within 6 spots  nationally of  the 6th ranked  school in the SEC is   equal?........

[DeltaBoy]

History says CBB does more with Less so I expect us to be fine.

[Russ22]

History says CBB does more with Less so I expect us to be fine.

The historic Coach Effect agrees with you. Prior to the 2013 season, Bert was #12 with a +1.25 coach effect. This means that his teams out-perform the Talent/Location matrix by 1.25 wins a year. Strong's teams under-perform by -0.33 (they lose a game they shouldn't every 3 years). This year's Texas was a -5 off the expected Talent/Location matrix. That is poor coaching.

http://cfbmatrix.com/2013-coach-effect/

[DeltaBoy]

Yep and I expect to see a 2-4 win swing this fall.

[Russ22]

Yep and I expect to see a 2-4 win swing this fall.

I don't. I don't personally like Bielema, but he has done a solid job. As an Arkansas native, I usually pull for the Hogs (when they aren't playing my Aggies), but I can't do that with him as coach. His approach is too archaic and will likely diminish from the game as the older coaches move out of the game. I also feel that he lays the blame on "not having the bodies" too often. It sounds to me as if he is not accepting the responsibility as the coach. That excuse is gone after this 2015 class - IMO.

I think that the Hogs are stuck in the 7-9 win (including the bowl) range. The Hogs should be above the Miss schools based on tradition alone and that's what the debacle with JLS cost them over the last few years.

[Vantage 8 dude]

I don't. I don't personally like Bielema, but he has done a solid job. As an Arkansas native, I usually pull for the Hogs (when they aren't playing my Aggies), but I can't do that with him as coach. His approach is too archaic and will likely diminish from the game as the older coaches move out of the game. I also feel that he lays the blame on "not having the bodies" too often. It sounds to me as if he is not accepting the responsibility as the coach. That excuse is gone after this 2015 class - IMO.

I think that the Hogs are stuck in the 7-9 win (including the bowl) range. The Hogs should be above the Miss schools based on tradition alone and that's what the debacle with JLS cost them over the last few years.

How about taking your "troll circus" down the road to College Station? They really need ya' down there.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The historic Coach Effect agrees with you. Prior to the 2013 season, Bret was #12 with a +1.25 coach effect. This means that his teams out-perform the Talent/Location matrix by 1.25 wins a year. Strong's teams under-perform by -0.33 (they lose a game they shouldn't every 3 years). This year's Texas was a -5 off the expected Talent/Location matrix. That is poor coaching.

http://cfbmatrix.com/2013-coach-effect/

There is a lot involved. Bill Snyder has been back at K-State long enough to get his program redeveloped and to have a solid staff. So much of this isn't just about the HC, it is about the staff they have and where they are in terms of implementing their program. Strong will bring Texas back to competing at a high level. Next season he won't be replacing 7-9 key performers (from dismissals) and he will more than likely have a better QB. That will help them a great deal.

Bielema is still in a rebuild and you could see it taking shape this past season. We will be better again this coming season, much to the chagrin of the SEC and some fans.

[DeltaBoy]

Yep I expect us to make some folks in the West very very sad this fall.