Kentucky's NCAA chances??

[YodaHog]

What do you guys think?  Their RPI has been on the rise, now up to 71....SOS is 27, and they are 7-3 in conference. 

They have a favorable 6 games left where I could see them finishing 4-2 (losses to Ten and hopefully us).  That would put them 11-5 in the SEC.  They are not in any of the bracketologies yet but if they finish strong will they be on the bubble?  Obviously the ugly non-conf. losses are killing them but I bet the selection committee would love to get them in.  Especially now that Ole Miss seems out of it.

Georgia   11-11 (3-7)
Arkansas   17-7 (6-4)   
Mississippi   17-7 (3-7)
at  Tennessee   22-2 (10-1)   
at  South Carolina   12-12 (4-6)
Florida 

[rtom]

at this point i dont think kentucky makes it to the ncaa...the loss to vanderbilt on tv is not gonna help them at all..only way they make it is to win the sec tourney

[Boss Hogg]

i think they'll make it just because they're Kentucky

[PorkRyan]

If UK can get to 11-5, I think they get in.

That last game against Florida may be a play in game for both teams.  Florida has no RPI or SOS and they are fading fast.

[DMacIsASaint]

I would say they need a record of 11-5 and to make it the conference champioship, which is a very long shot so I don't think they have much of a chance. Especially after scoring 11 points in the first half against vanderbilt

[HogMavFan]

I really doubt it. The 40 pt loss kind of showed they are still the same team that sucked in the non-conference season.

[40MINSOFHELL]

i hope they dont make it

[HogMavFan]

i hope they dont make it

Me too

[mathhog]

What do you guys think?  Their RPI has been on the rise, now up to 71....SOS is 27, and they are 7-3 in conference. 

They have a favorable 6 games left where I could see them finishing 4-2 (losses to Ten and hopefully us).  That would put them 11-5 in the SEC.  They are not in any of the bracketologies yet but if they finish strong will they be on the bubble?  Obviously the ugly non-conf. losses are killing them but I bet the selection committee would love to get them in.  Especially now that Ole Miss seems out of it.

Georgia   11-11 (3-7)
Arkansas   17-7 (6-4)  
Mississippi   17-7 (3-7)
at  Tennessee   22-2 (10-1)  
at  South Carolina   12-12 (4-6)
Florida 

Kentucky has to win the sectourney.  HAS to.

no other way they get in.

[Pigonometry]

Kentucky has to win the sectourney.  HAS to.

no other way they get in.

Normally, I would agree but, as of now, Kentucky has MORE SEC wins than Vandy and Florida, so I don't see how the NCAA could NOT take them if they win 10 SEC games --- even though I think they should.

[40MINSOFHELL]

well unless kentucky wants to get even more embarrased, they better hope they dont go, more people will be watching the ncaa tournament..i would laugh so hard

[Hot_Town_Hog]

Normally, I would agree but, as of now, Kentucky has MORE SEC wins than Vandy and Florida, so I don't see how the NCAA could NOT take them if they win 10 SEC games --- even though I think they should.

Normally that would be true, but the embarrassing losses they had pre-conf is what will keep them out. The Vandy game on National TV certainly didn't help. If they were to go 13-3 and win a couple in the SECT, they might have a chance.

It may also depend on what some of the other SEC schools do. Right now it looks like Tenn, MSU, Vandy, and Ar should get in, with Florida possibly in trouble due to their SOS. Lots of BB left, but I think 5 will get in one way or the other. At this point, Tenn is the only lock.

[arkjay19]

They HAVE to go 4-2 through their last 6 games AND make it to the semifinals of the SECT to even be considered.

[Marc Maggard]

The early season losses will not be nearly as heavily considered as the conf play.

Losing early due to injuries are often lessened if you come back strong once you are healthy.  The NCAA committee has a long standing history of that.

UK's loss to vandy was tough, but it's not as damaging as some may think.  IT was a game where things just start rolling and they keep going south....I don't think anyone thinks UK is actually a 11 point a half team...lol.

IF UK loses only once more reg season game...they are in.....especially if they win a couple in the SEC tournament. 

The NCAA wants UK in.  The fans travel well and watch TV.  It's all about the benjamins. 

If it's close, UK gets in.

mm

[jbcarol]

Kentucky Pros:  Conf. Record 7-3 in SEC-E (2nd) which is dominating SEC-W head-to-head.
Kentucky is 6-1 in last 7 games.
Kentucky projects to finish 5-1 or 4-2.
No team has ever won 10 games in SEC and not gotten a bid since 1985. (UGA declined '03 bid)
Kentucky will have the whole squad available down the stretch for the first time this season.
Kentucky defeated Tennessee.
Kentucky travels well and drives the ratings.
Kentucky makes FT's down the stretch.
Ole Miss is sitting 3-7 in conference play from the SEC-W.

Kentucky cons:
Jerry Palm says Kentucky will set precedent and become first SEC school with 10 wins to not get a bid.
Size of Vandy loss brings the Nov./Dec. losses back to mind.
Even if they get SEC-E #2, this Kentucky team, playing 3 guys 40 minutes is not suited for SEC Tourney success.
The Committee likes to give the defending champ (albeit more a two-time champ) a chance to defend.

[Marc Maggard]

Kentucky Pros:  Conf. Record 7-3 in SEC-E (2nd) which is dominating SEC-W head-to-head.
Kentucky is 6-1 in last 7 games.
Kentucky projects to finish 5-1 or 4-2.
No team has ever won 10 games in SEC and not gotten a bid since 1985. (UGA declined '03 bid)
Kentucky will have the whole squad available down the stretch for the first time this season.
Kentucky defeated Tennessee.
Kentucky travels well and drives the ratings.
Kentucky makes FT's down the stretch.
Ole Miss is sitting 3-7 in conference play from the SEC-W.

Kentucky cons:
Jerry Palm says Kentucky will set precedent and become first SEC school with 10 wins to not get a bid.
Size of Vandy loss brings the Nov./Dec. losses back to mind.
Even if they get SEC-E #2, this Kentucky team, playing 3 guys 40 minutes is not suited for SEC Tourney success.
The Committee likes to give the defending champ (albeit more a two-time champ) a chance to defend.

Hairy Palm?  doubt he's right...haha

The size of the vandy loss is not considered by the committee NEARLY as much as fans who like to trash talk with each other. 

UK is not deep by most standards, but they will be able to go deeper than they have when they get to tournament time.  Meeks is back now and that relieves Crawford, Jasper has been back and he will allow Bradley to sit in Tournaments.  UK can go 8 deep and be ok.....the post is the issue where UK isn't deep. 

IF UK only loses 1 more, they are in.  If the lose two, they need to win 2 games in the tournament.

mm

[The Realist]

You don't lose by 40 points to a team in your conference and get in.  You also don't lose to San Diego and Gardner Webb.  The NCAA will remember those games.

[Marc Maggard]

You don't lose by 40 points to a team in your conference and get in.  You also don't lose to San Diego and Gardner Webb.  The NCAA will remember those games.

UK may not get in, but those won't be the main reasons why.

Early season losses just aren't as important...especially when a team is as injured as UK was......

And UK lost to a team that they beat at home with a healthy team.  The embarrassment of the loss is more for us fans than the committee....when things go THAT bad on the road, you just have to deal with it.  And coming back and beating a hot LSU team on the road didn't hurt either.

UK may not make it, but not due to the reasons you list.

mm

[The Realist]

How can you call a team with a losing record "hot".  Kind of contradictory there.

[Marc Maggard]

How can you call a team with a losing record "hot".  Kind of contradictory there.

Actually, it's the reason that I called them "hot".  Nothing contradictory about it at all.

You do realize they almost beat UT and played well against florida....getting rid of john brady has lit a fire under that team....he's a crappy dude.

mm

[HogMavFan]

Actually, it's the reason that I called them "hot".  Nothing contradictory about it at all.

You do realize they almost beat UT and played well against florida....getting rid of john brady has lit a fire under that team....he's a crappy dude.

mm

When will you all realize that Marc Maggard is an expert on everything basketball since he is from Kentucky. There is no point in arguing with him, he shows up in any thread that mentions KY and is always right as are all Kentucky fans.

[Marc Maggard]

When will you all realize that Marc Maggard is an expert on everything basketball since he is from Kentucky. There is no point in arguing with him, he shows up in any thread that mentions KY and is always right as are all Kentucky fans.

Finally...someone around here gets it.



but seriously, what else do you expect me to talk about with you guys....I know UK bball better than anyone, so obviously, I'll comment on it....I also join discussions here concerning recruiting, since I'm a professional basketball scout. 

I find it hard to discuss too much about Arkansas basketball since most of you know more about it than I do.  I just read an learn, but I don't have a ton to add.....I try not to talk about things I'm not too smart about.

Not sure what you'd expect from me...lol

mm

[mathhog]

Finally...someone around here gets it.



but seriously, what else do you expect me to talk about with you guys....I know UK bball better than anyone, so obviously, I'll comment on it....I also join discussions here concerning recruiting, since I'm a professional basketball scout. 

I find it hard to discuss too much about Arkansas basketball since most of you know more about it than I do.  I just read an learn, but I don't have a ton to add.....I try not to talk about things I'm not too smart about.

Not sure what you'd expect from me...lol

mm

hey marc, don't you own kentuckyink?  i tried to register there but never had an email sent to me

with that said, i just don't see how kentucky gets in, barring a 6-0 sweep to end the season PLUS an sectourney final appearance.... too many hills to climb, 6-7 ooc stings badly.

[bayercat]

What is Kentucky's record?

[pigface]

Kentucky may knock off our fourth and final wheel on Saturday.  But it will not be enough for the tourney.

John Brady is badly needed back in Bud Walton Wednesday if only to coach a game.

[Marc Maggard]

matthog.....

Email me at mmaggard@roundballrecruiting.com and I'll hook you up with a login....


Guys, I'm not saying this BECAUSE I am a UK fan....I'm a fan of college basketball in general who happens to be a UK fan.....but you guys are putting WAY TOO MUCH stock into the first half of the season when compared to the last half.

IF a team has early season issues with good explanations (Injuries, new coach)....the NCAA has a LONG history of looking past them if they "right the ship".  UK has done a good job of improving and when healthy, is among the best teams in the SEC.  The NCAA looks at the last 10-12 games much heavier than the first 10-12. 

UK doesn't have to "win out" to make it in....they don't have to win the SEC tourny.  They just have to lose only one or two more Reg season games and win a couple in the Tourney.

The NCAA will look for a reason to put UK in.....it's just how it is.

mm

[HotlantaHog]

Absent a total collapse, Kentucky will make it in. There will be lots of complaining, and explaining, but Kentucky WILL make it in. With Kentucky, UCLA, Indiana, North Carolina and Duke, the NCAA will always err on the side of inviting them in. I'm not saying that is a good thing, but that is how it will end up.

[jbcarol]

What is Kentucky's record?

7-3 out of the SEC-E. 

[jbcarol]

Finally...someone around here gets it.



but seriously, what else do you expect me to talk about with you guys....I know UK bball better than anyone, so obviously, I'll comment on it....I also join discussions here concerning recruiting, since I'm a professional basketball scout. 

I find it hard to discuss too much about Arkansas basketball since most of you know more about it than I do.  I just read an learn, but I don't have a ton to add.....I try not to talk about things I'm not too smart about.

Not sure what you'd expect from me...lol

mm

Marc,

What's the latest on Scotty Hopson who had committed to Mississippi State?

[reddogjcss]

I hope they don't make it; but they have gotton the blue blood pass in the past!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Marc Maggard]

Marc,

What's the latest on Scotty Hopson who had committed to Mississippi State?

MSU is outside looking in...not much chance they get him.

Tenn is the current favorite.  Ole Miss will make a push due to Kennedy's relationship with some of Hopson's coaches.....

BCG finally made contact twice last week.  He refused to recruit Hopson unless Hopson would come out publicly and announce he was reopening his recruitment without also saying "but I'm still committed to MSU".   BCG made the statement "I just do not recruit committed players" on one day, Hopson came out the next with an interview saying he was no longer committed.....Billy called him the next day.

So...UK is starting to recruit Hopson...Tenn is the fav right now.  It'll likely come down to UK and UT.....If I had to bet at THIS point, i'd bet orange....but there is lots of time left.

mm

[jbcarol]

7-3 out of the SEC-E. 

8-3 after last nite.  Early on, Kentucky lost a close one to Miss. St. at Starkville.  Their lone loss to the SEC-W to-date.

[jbcarol]

MSU is outside looking in...not much chance they get him.

Tenn is the current favorite.  Ole Miss will make a push due to Kennedy's relationship with some of Hopson's coaches.....

BCG finally made contact twice last week.  He refused to recruit Hopson unless Hopson would come out publicly and announce he was reopening his recruitment without also saying "but I'm still committed to MSU".   BCG made the statement "I just do not recruit committed players" on one day, Hopson came out the next with an interview saying he was no longer committed.....Billy called him the next day.

So...UK is starting to recruit Hopson...Tenn is the fav right now.  It'll likely come down to UK and UT.....If I had to bet at THIS point, i'd bet orange....but there is lots of time left.

mm

That has to hurt Phil Cunningham from Campbellsville.

We will see how well CBCG can recruit in the stretch run (he did okay with Patterson.)

I hear UK got a commitment from Darius Miller of Mason County.  (Make up a little for the Lofton debacle.)

[Marc Maggard]

That has to hurt Phil Cunningham from Campbellsville.

We will see how well CBCG can recruit in the stretch run (he did okay with Patterson.)

I hear UK got a commitment from Darius Miller of Mason County.  (Make up a little for the Lofton debacle.)

The "Lofton debacle" is a myth.  Pure myth.

UK took Rajon Rondo, Ramel Bradley, Joe Crawford & Randolph Morris that year.  It was one of the top classes in the nation.  All of those players were rated SIGNIFICANTLY higher than Lofton & looking back, I still don't know that I'd trade any of em for Lofton. 

Lofton is a great shooter, but he's a defensive liability.  UK did not recruit Lofton because they didn't have any rides to offer him. 

There was no debacle, and UK should have taken the players they took.

mm

[jbcarol]

It's all about perception. 

[Marc Maggard]

It's all about perception. 

Not really. 

If you just want to believe something, that's fine....but it's pretty easy to look at the situation and see how it really is. 

Those who think there was a "debacle" are simply ignorant of the situation and too lazy to spend the few minutes to examine it.

mm

[Hoggish1]

What do you guys think?  Their RPI has been on the rise, now up to 71....SOS is 27, and they are 7-3 in conference. 

They have a favorable 6 games left where I could see them finishing 4-2 (losses to Ten and hopefully us).  That would put them 11-5 in the SEC.  They are not in any of the bracketologies yet but if they finish strong will they be on the bubble?  Obviously the ugly non-conf. losses are killing them but I bet the selection committee would love to get them in.  Especially now that Ole Miss seems out of it.

Georgia   11-11 (3-7)
Arkansas   17-7 (6-4)  
Mississippi   17-7 (3-7)
at  Tennessee   22-2 (10-1)  
at  South Carolina   12-12 (4-6)
Florida 

I think they make it because I don't think they lose from here out, except (I hope) to us.

[Hoggish1]

I would say they need a record of 11-5 and to make it the conference champioship, which is a very long shot so I don't think they have much of a chance. Especially after scoring 11 points in the first half against vanderbilt

Throw the Vandy game out.  It is a complete anomaly.  How else can you explain it?

[Hoggish1]

well unless kentucky wants to get even more embarrased, they better hope they dont go, more people will be watching the ncaa tournament..i would laugh so hard

I'm not sure, if they get it, that they get embarassed.  Odly enough they are peaking at the perfect time.  I hope we can go in there and get a win, though.

[Hoggish1]

matthog.....

Email me at mmaggard@roundballrecruiting.com and I'll hook you up with a login....


Guys, I'm not saying this BECAUSE I am a UK fan....I'm a fan of college basketball in general who happens to be a UK fan.....but you guys are putting WAY TOO MUCH stock into the first half of the season when compared to the last half.

IF a team has early season issues with good explanations (Injuries, new coach)....the NCAA has a LONG history of looking past them if they "right the ship".  UK has done a good job of improving and when healthy, is among the best teams in the SEC.  The NCAA looks at the last 10-12 games much heavier than the first 10-12. 

UK doesn't have to "win out" to make it in....they don't have to win the SEC tourny.  They just have to lose only one or two more Reg season games and win a couple in the Tourney.

The NCAA will look for a reason to put UK in.....it's just how it is.

mm

You make good sense with your analysis MM and I certainly agree.  I'm leary of our Sunday match with you guys, but maybe Pel will have them playing at their max, which is what I think they'll need to beat UK.

[jbcarol]

Not really. 

If you just want to believe something, that's fine....but it's pretty easy to look at the situation and see how it really is. 

Those who think there was a "debacle" are simply ignorant of the situation and too lazy to spend the few minutes to examine it.

mm

Folks like you and me know this was a huge win-win for Chris Lofton.  Kentucky scares up a scholarship (Woo, Carter, Thomas, Williams) and the kid would not have gotten the opportunity he got at Knoxville.

But the Kentucky fan sees a Kentucky high school kid lead Tennessee back to prominence.  A Kentucky HS kid is burying 3's while they're watching their guards tom-tom the ball and then create something with 5 secs left or let the shot clock expire multiple times at Vandy.  The ball always getting to Sparks just a hair late, right?  Bring in a psychologist and sing Kum By Yah (Come By Here Lord).  Then the State Championship High School hero goes to town on Kentucky while playing defense as well.  Pearl can come to Maysville and the town decks out in Orange in that huge H.S. gym.

Perception means a lot. 

[jbcarol]

To frame this for Hog fans, what if CBCG had signed Sanchez.  He has his red shirt and is waiting for a successful career with the Hogs now.  At Kentucky, this year, he would not be sitting behind walk-on Mark Coury ("Hanging with Mr. Cooper").  While Perry is getting minutes and growing, Sanchez has a lot of basketball savvy.  He would complement Patterson very well.  And necessity would make him an instant figure in the SEC.

And we wouldn't be feeling real good about that aspect of Coach Pelphrey's recruiting acumen.  Especially if he had played a key role in Saturday's game.  But that's moot because John landed the in-state prospect from NWA.

[HeathWimp]

Kentucky has to win the sectourney.  HAS to.

no other way they get in.

I wish that you were right, but I think that they get in.

They will lose at Tennessee, but will probably win all of their other SEC games.  That puts them at 12-4 in the SEC.  Say they win 2 games in the SEC Tourney (where they are usally very strong) - then they are at 14-5 vs. SEC teams.  I think that they get in at that point.

[Pigonometry]

You make good sense with your analysis MM and I certainly agree.  I'm leary of our Sunday match with you guys, but maybe Pel will have them playing at their max, which is what I think they'll need to beat UK.

I think you meant Saturday!  Just wanted to make sure you don't miss the game..........

[jbcarol]

Saturday 1:05 PM CST. 

I think it was incorrectly posted that the game would be on Sunday somewhere else and that notion has stuck.

[Pigonometry]

Saturday 1:05 PM CST. 

I think it was incorrectly posted that the game would be on Sunday somewhere else and that notion has stuck.

I wish it was on Sunday.  Myson's baseball tryouts got rained out last weekend and has now been moved to this Saturday at the same time as the game..........   

[Marc Maggard]

Folks like you and me know this was a huge win-win for Chris Lofton.  Kentucky scares up a scholarship (Woo, Carter, Thomas, Williams) and the kid would not have gotten the opportunity he got at Knoxville.

But the Kentucky fan sees a Kentucky high school kid lead Tennessee back to prominence.  A Kentucky HS kid is burying 3's while they're watching their guards tom-tom the ball and then create something with 5 secs left or let the shot clock expire multiple times at Vandy.  The ball always getting to Sparks just a hair late, right?  Bring in a psychologist and sing Kum By Yah (Come By Here Lord).  Then the State Championship High School hero goes to town on Kentucky while playing defense as well.  Pearl can come to Maysville and the town decks out in Orange in that huge H.S. gym.

Perception means a lot. 

haha....good read.

First of all, Tennessee wasn't even really recruiting Lofton....they had a guy back out, which freed up a ride.  UT was less interested in Lofton than UK was...they just had the ride open up late.

Second, Lofton went to the right place.  He wouldn't have played the same role at UK with all those All American's above him on the depth chart.  He wouldn't have been the "go to guy" at UK like he was/is at UT.

Third, perhaps it's the elitist in me....but I never really dumb down my own opinion based on what others "perceive" the facts to be.  There are a lot of idiots who spew off at the mouth on internet message boards and at the watercooler....it doesn't make em right, and it doesn't make them any more legitimate because they have some "perception" to back up their opinion.

mm

[jbcarol]

Has anyone ever said that Pearl only won with Buzz's players?

[PeytonManningSUCKS]

If life were fair they wouldn't get in except for some serious heroics, but they will probably end with 16 wins and get a 6 seed. hahah  sob sob... haha sob.

[HotlantaHog]

The fat lady is singing. Kentucky at 8-3 in the SEC is looking more and more like a lock. Remaining games: Arkansas, Mississippi and Florida at home, and at Tennessee and at South Carolina. A 11-5 record seems likely, or 10-6. Either gets them in.