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2009 statistical woes, will they repeat?

Started by Piglet Dispersion Syndrome, September 08, 2010, 04:34:20 pm

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Piglet Dispersion Syndrome

September 08, 2010, 04:34:20 pm Last Edit: September 09, 2010, 11:13:00 am by AmaurosisHogax
2009 Alabama               Mallett      12/35 161yds, 1 TD, 0 int.
2009 Florida                  Mallett     12/27  224yds, 1 TD, 0 int.
2009 East Carolina         Mallett      15/36  202yds, 1 TD, 0 int.


I had forgotten we went 0 for 13 on third down in the bowl game, ouch. E. Carolina kicker misses from 45, 39, 39, 35. We were outgained 393 yards for ECU, 283 yards for us. That has to be one of the most unlikely wins ever statistically.

Last year our defense gave up 553 yards at Ole Miss, 530 yards against Georgia at home.

We were down 10-0 to Texas A&M, and also down 10-0 at halftime to E. Carolina, and won both.

Our biggest rushing SEC performance in 2009 was against Auburn where we rushed for 221 yards. (btw we rushed for 188 against them in 2008 in a win). The most rushing yards under Petrino for an SEC opponent is 236 yards in a loss to Kentucky 21-20 in 2008.

We also won SEC games in 2009 when we rushed for less than 100 yards....South Carolina 76 yards rushing, Miss. St. 83 yards rushing.

My gut says that Mallett will play much better against SEC teams than he did last year, not that it was poor, but his completion percentage and 3rd down percentage was meager.

You have to remember that his Georgia start last year was his first SEC start, and then had to follow that up with his first SEC road start the next week at Alabama.

His decision making got better as the year went on, as evidenced by us winning 5 of the last 6 and we were close to beating LSU to make it the last six. If we can run the ball just a little better this year and convert more 3rd downs, then our SEC record will improve accordingly.

Piglet Dispersion Syndrome

I'm guessing everyone agrees with me, or there's nothing to debate!

 

Biggus Piggus

Was not merely Mallett's decisionmaking. Crowd noise + excellent defensive lines. They made him move, made him speed up. He lost his mechanics on the move like that. Also got frustrated and didn't settle for less. How many times did Mallett hit his "hots," entire season long?

Also, our running game was terrible in the situation where it should have been great--second and long. Our attempts to run draws/delays on second downs were frequently futile, which set up too many third and longs. Big-big-big part of the conversion problem in those games you referenced.
[CENSORED]!

Tripod1

A year older, a year stronger, a year wiser, another year in the system.  Hopefully that means NO we will not repeat last years woes.  Time will tell. 

GuvHog

Quote from: AmaurosisHogax on September 08, 2010, 04:34:20 pm
2009 Alabama               Mallett      12/35 161yds, 1 TD, 0 int.
2009 Florida                  Mallett     12/27  224yds, 1 TD, 0 int.
2009 East Carolina         Mallett      15/36  202yds, 1 TD, 0 int.


I had forgotten we went 0 for 13 on third down in the bowl game, ouch. E. Carolina kicker misses from 45, 39, 39, 35. We were outgained 393 yards for ECU, 283 yards for us. That has to be one of the most unlikely wins ever statistically.

Last year our defense gave up 553 yards at Ole Miss, 530 yards against Georgia at home.

We were down 10-0 to Texas A&M, and also down 10-0 at halftime to E. Carolina, and won both.

Our biggest rushing SEC performance in 2009 was against Auburn where we rushed for 221 yards. (btw we rushed for 188 against them in 2008 in a win). The most rushing yards under Petrino for an SEC opponent is 236 yards in a loss to Kentucky 21-20 in 2008.

We also won SEC games in 2009 when we rushed for less than 100 yards....South Carolina 76 yards rushing, Miss. St. 83 yards rushing.

My gut says that Mallett will play much better against SEC teams than he did last year, not that it was poor, but his completion percentage and 3rd down percentage was meager.

You have to remember that his Georgia start last year was his first SEC start, and then had to follow that up with his first SEC road start the next week at Alabama.

His decision making got better as the year went on, as evidenced by us winning 5 of the last 6 and we were close to beating LSU to make it the last six. If we can run the ball just a little better this year and convert more 3rd downs, then our SEC record will improve accordingly.

The fact that the Hogs had only 1 non-conference game and then a bye week before hosting Georgia and Alabama back to back really hurt the Hogs last year so having 2 non-conference games with no bye week before back to back games with Georgia (in Athens) and Bama (in DWRRS) is HUGE for the Hogs as they will be better prepared for the latter 2.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

wherestheD

can only speculate but I think the hogs will do better in all areas.  Ryan checked down to his underneath receiver many times against Tech.  Last year he would have forced those down field for incompletions.  The hogs only gained a few yards on those plays but they certainly make 3rd and short situations as opposed to 3rd and long.  Him hitting the underneath guy should keep us moving the chains more in my opinion

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: Tripod1 on September 09, 2010, 01:31:50 pm
A year older, a year stronger, a year wiser, another year in the system.  Hopefully that means NO we will not repeat last years woes.  Time will tell. 

Yes all that. He got to see tons thrown at him + then relive it with Petrino's meticulously dissected video packages. And now he can practice against better opposition too.

Mallett has the potential to make the football magically materialize in spots the defense cannot cover. We are going to see some opponents try to lay out our receivers to give the rush time to get to Mallett. If the Hogs set it up right, playing soft coverage will be dangerous.

I hope Mallett can pull off a really nice draw or delay this week, something for Georgia to think about. I mean handing it to somebody not trying to run on his own. Giraffes are fast but not elusive.
[CENSORED]!

jgphillips3

It is sure possible that Mallett will have games where he flops, but it isn't likely.  Despite his age and those few games on the field at Michigan, he was still basically a freshman last year.  This year, he is older, wiser and has already in game one shown a willingness to take what the defense is giving him instead of going for it all. 

Also, even in losing, Texas showed us the way to attack Bama's defense through the air and don't think that was lost on Petrino.  Factor in that Bama lost six of their top defenders and their secondary is a slight question mark for a change and we certainly have a chance to greatly improve on our performance against them. 

All in all, I think we have ever reason to expect the game-long lulls to be gone this year, although we will certainly see series where the defense just picks the right calls and shuts us down from time to time.

GB-Razorback

Several people here have said it but I will say it again, the biggest difference this year will be when a RB or TE is standing around 5 yards down field uncovered or loosely covered, Mallett will pass and complete it to them.  Last year, he would throw the ball 30 yards downfield or fire it at 93 mph at the check down receiver.  In the TT game, you could see vision and touch on the check down.  Mallett gets that part of his game going and watch out. 
Elwood: It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tanks of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark and we're wearing sunglasses.<br /><br />Jake: Hit it.