The two road losses

[niels_boar]

My take:

The two road losses were both mainly about defense, and the causes of the subpar defense were almost mutually exclusive.  By my estimation we scored 1.1 points per possession at MSU, which should have been good enough to win that game, and 1.08 ppp at Auburn, which probably should have resulted in a game that was close throughout. 

The offense was acceptable for road SEC games where you don't expect to shoot as well and won't get the same calls, though most road wins occur when your O is firing on all cylinders.  That was hardly the case.  One of Macon or Barford had well below average games by their standards in both games, we got almost nothing from the bench against MSU, got nothing from Jones in both games, and shot terribly from the arc against Auburn, who hasn't defended the arc well this season.  We still scored efficiently enough to give ourselves a chance in both games without doing anything particularly extraordinary on D.

The problems on defense against MSU were all about FTAs and rebounds.  The refs just didn't allow us to play defense against them.  I saw a bushel full of phantom calls on shot attempts watching SEC games yesterday.  Some of the anticipation calls boarded on ridiculous.  Nothing we can do about that except try to take advantage at the other end.  Had we rebounded better against MSU that might have deodorized the officiating, but it is very difficult to beat a decent team when they shoot 3x+ more FTAs.

Neither deficiency was a problem at Auburn.  Auburn both gets to the line and converts FTAs much better than MSU, but we surrendered a very reasonable 17 FTs to them.  I would have taken that before the game.  Likewise, Auburn has been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation this season, Arkansas one of the worst. We out rebounded them, giving them very little on the glass.  On some nights that considerable upset would have decided the game between the two.  We took away two of their primary drivers on O.

Alas, the 33 - 12 drubbing that we took from the arc overshadowed the good work elsewhere.  Some of that was random bad luck.  Heron came into the game shooting 30% on treys and hit 3 of 4. At least two of the makes were deep and contested.  Auburn shoots the ball very well, but they don't make all those shots every night.  By contrast, our 4 of 19 with Macon and Beard going 1 of 10 sealed our fate.  We're just not going to win many road games against NCAAT teams without Macon making a trey.

The one commonality in our lackluster D was our inability to get steals. A big mystery is why those two games were our two lowest forced TO rates of the season.  Neither MSU nor Auburn are especially good at avoiding TOs, especially MSU.  The officiating was partly to blame at MSU.  We had to run from them to avoid fouls.  Emphasizing avoiding fouls and staying in rebounding position  may have been part of the explanation at Auburn, but we could have done a better job of shot denial if that were the case. In any case, single-digit TOs cut into our ability to win extra-chance opportunities and force some tempo.  Pearl decided that he didn't want to run with us. Both games were at paces well below what we would prefer, which didn't help.

Some positives for the Auburn game included Barford breaking out of his mini-slump in the second half.  Likewise, almost everybody on the bench saw some good things happen.  Hall played very well at both ends, and Trey showed that he can score.  He has been our best defensive rebounder in SEC play so far.  The bench getting some confidence should pay some dividends soon.

Since our trend the last few years has been to start off slowly on D in SEC play and then improve significantly as conference play proceeds, I don't feel particularly panicky about those two losses.   Frustrated, but not panicky. We're scoring points in a defense-heavy conference without playing our best ball.  This team is much better on defense than last year's squad, but their current SEC defensive numbers are even worse than last year.  That won't continue.  The two poor defensive performances didn't have much in common.

Random notes:

1. Gafford was our best defensive rebounder in nonconference by a long shot.  He's currently sixth in rebound rate on the team in SEC play.  I don't know if he is sick, hitting a wall, or banged up.  I wouldn't expect that trend to continue much longer either, which should help the D.

2.  We have played three teams - Houston, UT, and Auburn - that are small but athletic and hit the glass hard.  They all defend well, especially on the inside.  We've struggled to some extent against all three.  I'm curious as to how a speed lineup might fare.  Rather than looking bigger, we just seemed slower at times in those games. I haven't noticed us go small this year, but on occasion, when Gafford sits, I'd like to see what would happen with two of Cook, Bailey, and Hall at the forwards with three guards.  That would be our best perimeter defensive unit and the best pressure defense.

3. Jones will eventually be a factor in the SEC.  CMA may need to stick with him longer. That would be easier if the bench was not playing from behind.

4.  Fans are going to have to get used to the new normal of the SEC being tough in basketball.  Some teams that are at .500 or maybe worse in SEC play will get bids this season.

[PonderinHog]

That's good stuff, NB.  I hope we don't look back and have major regrets about not splitting these last two.

[rzrbackramsfan]

My take:

The two road losses were both mainly about defense, and the causes of the subpar defense were almost mutually exclusive.  By my estimation we scored 1.1 points per possession at MSU, which should have been good enough to win that game, and 1.08 ppp at Auburn, which probably should have resulted in a game that was close throughout. 

The offense was acceptable for road SEC games where you don't expect to shoot as well and won't get the same calls, though most road wins occur when your O is firing on all cylinders.  That was hardly the case.  One of Macon or Barford had well below average games by their standards in both games, we got almost nothing from the bench against MSU, got nothing from Jones in both games, and shot terribly from the arc against Auburn, who hasn't defended the arc well this season.  We still scored efficiently enough to give ourselves a chance in both games without doing anything particularly extraordinary on D.

The problems on defense against MSU were all about FTAs and rebounds.  The refs just didn't allow us to play defense against them.  I saw a bushel full of phantom calls on shot attempts watching SEC games yesterday.  Some of the anticipation calls boarded on ridiculous.  Nothing we can do about that except try to take advantage at the other end.  Had we rebounded better against MSU that might have deodorized the officiating, but it is very difficult to beat a decent team when they shoot 3x+ more FTAs.

Neither deficiency was a problem at Auburn.  Auburn both gets to the line and converts FTAs much better than MSU, but we surrendered a very reasonable 17 FTs to them.  I would have taken that before the game.  Likewise, Auburn has been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation this season, Arkansas one of the worst. We out rebounded them, giving them very little on the glass.  On some nights that considerable upset would have decided the game between the two.  We took away two of their primary drivers on O.

Alas, the 33 - 12 drubbing that we took from the arc overshadowed the good work elsewhere.  Some of that was random bad luck.  Heron came into the game shooting 30% on treys and hit 3 of 4. At least two of the makes were deep and contested.  Auburn shoots the ball very well, but they don't make all those shots every night.  By contrast, our 4 of 19 with Macon and Beard going 1 of 10 sealed our fate.  We're just not going to win many road games against NCAAT teams without Macon making a trey.

The one commonality in our lackluster D was our inability to get steals. A big mystery is why those two games were our two lowest forced TO rates of the season.  Neither MSU nor Auburn are especially good at avoiding TOs, especially MSU.  The officiating was partly to blame at MSU.  We had to run from them to avoid fouls.  Emphasizing avoiding fouls and staying in rebounding position  may have been part of the explanation at Auburn, but we could have done a better job of shot denial if that were the case. In any case, single-digit TOs cut into our ability to win extra-chance opportunities and force some tempo.  Pearl decided that he didn't want to run with us. Both games were at paces well below what we would prefer, which didn't help.

Some positives for the Auburn game included Barford breaking out of his mini-slump in the second half.  Likewise, almost everybody on the bench saw some good things happen.  Hall played very well at both ends, and Trey showed that he can score.  He has been our best defensive rebounder in SEC play so far.  The bench getting some confidence should pay some dividends soon.

Since our trend the last few years has been to start off slowly on D in SEC play and then improve significantly as conference play proceeds, I don't feel particularly panicky about those two losses.   Frustrated, but not panicky. We're scoring points in a defense-heavy conference without playing our best ball.  This team is much better on defense than last year's squad, but their current SEC defensive numbers are even worse than last year.  That won't continue.  The two poor defensive performances didn't have much in common.

Random notes:

1. Gafford was our best defensive rebounder in nonconference by a long shot.  He's currently sixth in rebound rate on the team in SEC play.  I don't know if he is sick, hitting a wall, or banged up.  I wouldn't expect that trend to continue much longer either, which should help the D.

2.  We have played three teams - Houston, UT, and Auburn - that are small but athletic and hit the glass hard.  They all defend well, especially on the inside.  We've struggled to some extent against all three.  I'm curious as to how a speed lineup might fare.  Rather than looking bigger, we just seemed slower at times in those games. I haven't noticed us go small this year, but on occasion, when Gafford sits, I'd like to see what would happen with two of Cook, Bailey, and Hall at the forwards with three guards.  That would be our best perimeter defensive unit and the best pressure defense.

3. Jones will eventually be a factor in the SEC.  CMA may need to stick with him longer. That would be easier if the bench was not playing from behind.

4.  Fans are going to have to get used to the new normal of the SEC being tough in basketball.  Some teams that are at .500 or maybe worse in SEC play will get bids this season.

Great post, we need to get you a blog.

Based on what you wrote about how we have a stronger defensive team than last year, going through the MSU games officiating and having our team realize those games can happen, seeing how the other sec teams are fading against each other on the road with an internal understanding of who has beat who and where, has me with hopes that if we keep getting better and fix a few thing later, we can go on a winning streak.

[TNhawgfan]

I can't see SEC teams with losing conference records making the big dance. I know the conference is improved, but not to that level

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

Solid stuff. 

Back when SEC was a good basketball league teams got in with around 20 or so wins and conf record right around .500.  Even Lunardi's most recent bracketology is pointing towards that with 8 teams in.  League really help itself in non-con play this year as opposed to the past where there would be some really bad losses before league play.

And I agree while the losses are disappointing they are not to panic level good things to be gleaned from both.

[Razorod]

Thanks Niels. Helpful analysis.

I was hoping for 4-1 after this week. Obviously, not gong to hit that number. Hopefully, we're 3-2 after the Mizzou game on Saturday.

The next six games, as others have pointed out, does provide an opportunity to gain some momentum going into the final ten game stretch.

Four homes (LSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss and OSU) and a very winnable road game (UGa). I also think that UF is not an impossible game either (we're definitely due).

So, I'm hoping for 5-1 during this next six game stretch. If the loss is UF or a different conference foe, we'd be 5-3 in SEC play and 16-5 overall. Still in good position for post-season opportunities.

[BannerMountainMan]

Just look at the Michigan state game today

[niels_boar]

I can't see SEC teams with losing conference records making the big dance. I know the conference is improved, but not to that level

It depends on the team.  The teams that played crap nonconference schedules like MSU may need 10 or 11 SEC wins to get a bid. A team that accomplished a lot in nonconference might sneak in at 8 -10.  KSU was 8-10 in the Big 12 last season and played the #305 NC SOS according to Pomeroy.  Their bubble didn't burst.

I'll venture that it's highly probable that an SEC team gets in at 9 - 9.  The SEC SOS's should get a lot of positive feedback.  Nine SEC teams are in the Pomeroy top 52 right now.  No team is lower than #87.  That's almost as good as the B12 last season at the bottom.  Vandy got in last year at 10-8 in the SEC when two SEC teams were in the bottom 150 and only five in the top 50.

[tennesseehogwild]

It seems like, for the last twenty years The Hogs have had early trouble on the road in conference play. The years we had pretty good teams. they bounced back and held their own. Hopefully we get it sorted out this year, Still plenty of time.

[FATHAWG08]

 The "Mike Anderson can't win on the road" claim is an outdated argument. Since the 2014-15 season, including this week, Arkansas is 15-14 in road SEC games. That is second only to Kentucky over that span.

[BannerMountainMan]

And I bet Utah will beat #4 Arizona St tonight