Hang on - The Bubble Hasn't Popped Yet!

[jerradh24]

I think it's premature to abandon all hope for an at-large bid.

Before you start screaming at me - I'm also not saying we're in and there is clearly more work to be done. A three-game run in the SEC tournament would strengthen our case. Without it, I'm not sure there's any glimmer of hope.

However, as pointed out by Kevin McPherson today, there are many factors that bolster the resume.

-- No. 47 NET > many Bubble teams incl all from SEC
-- 12-1 OOC incl 2-1 on road w/2 Quad-1 Ws (@ GT @ Indiana)
-- 4 total Q1 Ws (incl LSU, @ Bama)
-- W/3 wins at SECT (Vandy, SC, LSU), Hogs reach 22 Ws (incl 10 SEC), 5 Q1 Ws, 7 away Ws, 6-3 in last 9, NET Top 40

Also, there is the Isaiah Joe factor.   (Again - Kevin's research)

Arkansas (19-12, 7-11 SEC) was ...
-- 16-4 w/healthy Zai, incl 5-3 in SEC gm
-- 18-7 w/Zai in lineup whether injured or healthy
-- 1-5 w/Zai out of lineup

I also have seen all of the tournament projections from Lunardi to Palm  - but those guys aren't on the selection committee and year after year, you'll see these same experts crying about how the committee got it wrong. So, clearly they never fully or accurately predict the entire field. 

[Adam Stokes]

I still think we need 4 wins. While we've moved up to four Q1 wins with LSU's win on Saturday, our first game will be against Vandy (Q3) next game against SC (Q2) and then if we beat LSU, it will knock a Q1 win to Q2 and then add a Q2. So we'll technically have less Q1 wins by winning three games, unless some of the teams in the high 20's perform poorly and soften LSU movement. I think we'll still need one more (against whomever) to pull it off.

The good news is that all of those games are very winnable.

[Smithian]

Win three games in Nashville and we may make it with some luck. I doubt it.

But I'd rather actually make it past Vandy before imagining some miracle run.

[RoyHobbs92]

We finished 11th in the SEC. That can't be overlooked. We have to win the tournament to make the NCAA's.

[Smithian]

We finished 11th in the SEC. That can't be overlooked. We have to win the tournament to make the NCAA's.

I agree. I think it'll be very hard for the NCAA to overlook that simple fact.

[CowHog32]

I still think we need 4 wins. While we've moved up to four Q1 wins with LSU's win on Saturday, our first game will be against Vandy (Q3) next game against SC (Q2) and then if we beat LSU, it will knock a Q1 win to Q2 and then add a Q2. So we'll technically have less Q1 wins by winning three games, unless some of the teams in the high 20's perform poorly and soften LSU movement. I think we'll still need one more (against whomever) to pull it off.

The good news is that all of those games are very winnable.

This is why I don't like the quad stuff.. we beat LSU and that potentially drops them down from a Q1 to a Q2.. Conference tournament games shouldn't count for quality wins/losses.. there are so many higher ranked teams that don't care about winning conference tournaments that can you really consider it a Q1 win?

[jst01]

Season was lost on home loss to South Carolina and tip in Miss State loss at home. Those two should have been wins with a team that understands what is at stake.

[Hogwild]

We finished 11th in the SEC. That can't be overlooked. We have to win the tournament to make the NCAA's.

Exactly we finished 11th in a four, maybe 5, bid league.

[FraggleHog]

I think it's premature to abandon all hope for an at-large bid.

Before you start screaming at me - I'm also not saying we're in and there is clearly more work to be done. A three-game run in the SEC tournament would strengthen our case. Without it, I'm not sure there's any glimmer of hope.

However, as pointed out by Kevin McPherson today, there are many factors that bolster the resume.

-- No. 47 NET > many Bubble teams incl all from SEC
-- 12-1 OOC incl 2-1 on road w/2 Quad-1 Ws (@ GT @ Indiana)
-- 4 total Q1 Ws (incl LSU, @ Bama)
-- W/3 wins at SECT (Vandy, SC, LSU), Hogs reach 22 Ws (incl 10 SEC), 5 Q1 Ws, 7 away Ws, 6-3 in last 9, NET Top 40

Also, there is the Isaiah Joe factor.   (Again - Kevin's research)

Arkansas (19-12, 7-11 SEC) was ...
-- 16-4 w/healthy Zai, incl 5-3 in SEC gm
-- 18-7 w/Zai in lineup whether injured or healthy
-- 1-5 w/Zai out of lineup

I also have seen all of the tournament projections from Lunardi to Palm  - but those guys aren't on the selection committee and year after year, you'll see these same experts crying about how the committee got it wrong. So, clearly they never fully or accurately predict the entire field.

Only issue with this argument is that those OOC games happened at the beginning of the season. It just seems like the selection committee is in more of a "what have you done for me lately?" kind of mind state. I know that most to all teams play the majority of their OOC schedule at the beginning of the season, but just seems like they more heavily weight the conference performance that OOC. That being said, I hope I'm wrong!

[k.c.hawg]

I still think we need 4 wins. While we've moved up to four Q1 wins with LSU's win on Saturday, our first game will be against Vandy (Q3) next game against SC (Q2) and then if we beat LSU, it will knock a Q1 win to Q2 and then add a Q2. So we'll technically have less Q1 wins by winning three games, unless some of the teams in the high 20's perform poorly and soften LSU movement. I think we'll still need one more (against whomever) to pull it off.

The good news is that all of those games are very winnable.

It should knock a Quad 1 LSU at home to a Quad II and add a Quad 1 LSU on neutral floor (Top 50).

[311Hog]

i think i just pulled a quad

[Bucksnout]

I can't wait till we get good again, and hope we schedule Kansas, Virginia, Duke, etc etc..........

[Smithian]

I can't wait till we get good again, and hope we schedule Kansas, Virginia, Duke, etc etc..........

Let's put a W on Western Kentucky before we start picking fights with the big dogs.

[k.c.hawg]

I can't wait till we get good again, and hope we schedule Kansas, Virginia, Duke, etc etc..........

We are already in the tournament in Vegas with Louisville and I would suspect they will fill with 2 pretty good mid major teams. Their goal will be an Arkansas/Louisville final.

[PokeyHogFan]

We also have to consider how much different the bubble can look after this week. Take for example, Northern Iowa, who has a 25-6 record as well as a NET ranking in the 30's. Chaos can ensue this coming week and the landscape can shift dramatically.

[Kevin McPherson]

I still think we need 4 wins. While we've moved up to four Q1 wins with LSU's win on Saturday, our first game will be against Vandy (Q3) next game against SC (Q2) and then if we beat LSU, it will knock a Q1 win to Q2 and then add a Q2. So we'll technically have less Q1 wins by winning three games, unless some of the teams in the high 20's perform poorly and soften LSU movement. I think we'll still need one more (against whomever) to pull it off.

The good news is that all of those games are very winnable.

LSU is currently No. 29 in NET. By the time Friday rolls around, having not played to that point, LSU could move up if teams ahead of it lose (obviously the alternative is also a possibility if teams just behind the Tigers win) ... point is, if Hogs were to get that far and defeat LSU, that would be a Quad-1 win (neutral-site wins over NET Top 50) with a chance that the home win last week could hold up as a Q1 win ... either way, the resume at that point would put Hogs in a lot of favorable measurable in terms of what NCAAT resumes look like.

One thing that I also tweeted that was not included in the OP was this ...

So, what R Hogs' chances to win 3 in a row at SECT? Consider:
-- Vandy won last 2 gms: SCar, at Bama
-- SCar won 79-77 at UA in Jan
-- Hogs would be playing for 3rd straight day vs LSU if they get to Fri
-- Hogs have not won 3 str8 gms since Dec, & only 2 in a row twice since Dec

Only so many characters in a tweet, and had I had more to include I would have said the last 3-game win streak there was a week between each game, which is huge for a team that does not have reliable depth (rest and preparation).

[1highhog]

We will do okay I think in the NIT this year unless we're put against a team that has great inside presence.  There is about a 10% chance of us winning 4 games in the SEC Tournament and that's what we'll need to go to the NCAA Tournament.

[Satellite]

We clearly don't hold our own destiny in our hands. Especially if we don't run the table in the SECT. Will need some help from other bubble teams blowing it in their own conference tournaments.

[Kevin McPherson]

We finished 11th in the SEC. That can't be overlooked. We have to win the tournament to make the NCAA's.

I agree. I think it'll be very hard for the NCAA to overlook that simple fact.

Exactly we finished 11th in a four, maybe 5, bid league.

I disagree, mainly because of the 0-5 stretch without Isaiah Joe being the reason for the 11th-place league finish. IF the Hogs win 3 at SECT, the resume will be worthy in many ways (22 wins, 4-5 Q1 wins, 7 wins away from home, 6-3 in last 9 gms since the return of Joe, NET would likely be just inside of Top 40, and even the record against SEC teams would be 10-12).

I'm not saying 3 more wins gets an at-large bid, I'm saying the resume would definitely be NCAAT worthy and you can bet there will be 3-4 teams that do sneak in with similar, maybe not as good, resumes.

Win 4 and the Hogs will Dance without needing the auto-qualifier in the SECT finals.

[alohawg]

Hogs can win it all if they play like they have nothing to lose, because they don't. Just relax and let her fly, no pressure now. Seems Joe shoots better that way anyway.

[thehill1414]

I disagree, mainly because of the 0-5 stretch without Isaiah Joe being the reason for the 11th-place league finish. IF the Hogs win 3 at SECT, the resume will be worthy in many ways (22 wins, 4-5 Q1 wins, 7 wins away from home, 6-3 in last 9 gms since the return of Joe, NET would likely be just inside of Top 40, and even the record against SEC teams would be 10-12).

I'm not saying 3 more wins gets an at-large bid, I'm saying the resume would definitely be NCAAT worthy and you can bet there will be 3-4 teams that do sneak in with similar, maybe not as good, resumes.

Win 4 and the Hogs will Dance without needing the auto-qualifier in the SECT finals.

Totally agree, Kevin. Some of you are putting too much emphasis on conference place. The only good that does for you is allows you to rest more and have an "easier" road during the SEC tournament. 22 wins and we will be most likely in.

[jjdlc]

3 wins may get us there.  At the very least it'll make selection Sunday interesting.  A lot has to go right in other conference tourney's etc.  I'm just ready to watch some post season play.