Conference Predictions

[-Blu]

Conference play officially starts 2 weeks from tomorrow, let's get some predictions going...

@Georgia - W
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - L
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Tennessee - W
@Florida - W
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - L
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - L
LSU - W

13-5, and good enough for second in the SEC.

And if your looking at this and thinking "What the... about some of those losses and wins I predicted on the road, I'm just following our trend, of getting hype and winning some games we aren't suppose to, and going to some we should win and come up short.  I don't think we're passed those days just yet.  I think our guys will be fired up going to Georgia, and we steal a close one there, then I think we'll go into a very good environment in Florida, and steal a big game there.  Tennessee, is a game I went back and forth on, Tyndall has them playing very well at home, so I think they may pull out a close one against us.

[root_hawg]

3 losses on the road, conference is terrible.  Nolan would have the second team in by half in his hey day with this conference

[razorbackchamps94]

Will lose more then 5 SEC games .. We just can't win on the road

[Champs04]

C'mon its mikes best team ever!!!

[Redbug]

win all 9 home games...

lose UK & UF (could steal with great game they aren't worldbeaters)

should win at Mizzou, MSU, AUbie

tossups:@UGA...have we EVER played a good game there? I can't remember one where we did
             @OM...always play like crap here also....
             @Tenn....most improving team of the tossups
             @SCar...another place we usually play down to the opponent...GOOD Coach
we'll split the tossups....win at OM & UGA and lose at Tenn and USCe....

14-4....that's what we should be....but the way this team's playing with long stretches of useless play that is hard to overcome....it could end up 12-6....which would be major underachieving in this SEC

[Atlhogfan1]

We need an image of a rollercoaster for this thread. 

[opineonswine]

As of today I would predict losses at UGA, UK, UF, Ole Miss, Tennessee.

[Tusks]

Dontcha think they need to go at least 12-6 in conference to make the tourney?

[Knot2brite]

My heart wants to say 12-6 but my head says 11-7......the head wins

[mbgrulz]

History says that once you get to 24 W's, you are in. Really, you have a 99% chance of getting in with 23 W's. Va Tech was left out in 2010 with 23 W's, but it VERY rare for a P5 conference team to not make it in with 23 W's.

So...it looks like 12-6 would get us to 23 W's, and almost assuredly in. Win one in the SECT, or go 13-5 and you don't sweat on selection Sunday at all.

Now...if we have some tough breaks or just can't win on the road and go 11-7 or 10-8, we are not mathematically eliminated. Teams have made it with far worse records than 22-9. I'm not an RPI expert, and I'm guessing that would be what got us at that point, but we'd still have a glimmer of hope.

[bigred223]

We will go 14-4 or 13-5. Too many people getting hung up on two road losses early. We have a legit shot at sweet 16.

[mbgrulz]

We will go 14-4 or 13-5. Too many people getting hung up on two road losses early. We have a legit shot at sweet 16.

14-4 means a 5-4 conference road record and 9-0 at BWA...I'll take it!

[secfan30]

12-14 wins in my opinion prior to the SEC Torney

[Danny J]

12-6 I think we lose to UGA...beat vandy and beat Tenner and after that who knows.

[cityhog]

10-8

I have to see consistent wins against VERY bad teams on the road to change my tune.

[The Hogfather]

I would bet my life savings that we lose @ Georgia.

[The Hogfather]

I say 11-7 or 12-6,.  Lean more towards 11-7.  I just don't trust us on the road, even against bad teams Clemson).

[Adam Stokes]

I think we'll take a bigger step on the road but still won't be up to where people think we should be.

8-1 at home
4-5 on the road

12-6 overall

[3kgthog]

11-7 with an 0-2 start in road games @ UGA and UT.

[ErieHog]

@Georgia - L
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - W
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Tennessee - W
@Florida - L
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - W
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - L
LSU - W


13-5 and 3rd place in the SEC.

[HogCzar1]

I would say right now 12-6. Our first 4 road games will tell us a lot. At Georgia, Tennessee, Mizzou, and Florida.

We need to get off to a good start at Georgia. We have struggled with the opening conference road game the past few years.

I think we are better, but we are going to struggle putting the ball in the basket on the road. In addition, we will not be as aggressive defensively on the road.

If we can avoid games where we shoot 35%, and not put our opponents on the foul line, we will exceed last year's record.

However, if this team doesn't grow from the Clemson experience, then we will likely be a bubble team again in March.

[Rawker]

Love the Mikester and just think he needs a break on getting all the right heads on the horses, but in my mind, in regards to the SEC road games, the horses that help lose the road games still have the same basic heads that they've had.  Qualls showed again at ISU and Clemson that he disappears and becomes a non-factor on the road (he's one of my all-time fav Hogs, one should note, but this is just the truth about him), Madden incorrectly thinks he can single-handedly shoot and drive the Hogs back from a 6+ deficit, and the result is numerous turnovers (not one of my all-time fav Hogs, but he does try all he can...just way too much), Ant Bell will look like he's never put up a 3 until it's too late, and Portis will take tons of heat under the basket, where he will inexplicably miss several layups from 1-2 inches.  Harris will do his part by, like Madden, trying to erase deficits with one basket, bulldozing his way for charges and walks (on the other hand, maybe he'll do what he did at KY defensively, which was greatness).  Mike - and this coming from a big fan - will do his part by leaning too much on those particular guys because he's always determined (like most coaches are) to believe that the most veteran players will figure out a way, when in this case it's not necessarily true.   I think if Mike decides to lean more on guys like Beard, Kingsley, and Watkins and trust them, he can change the nature of a very psychologically challenged team on the road to one that can win, using some other pieces to neutralize or minimize the "headiness."  Hindsight is 20/20, and I bet CMA might have wondered about this many times, but I don't think Beard or Watkins would not have made that pass into Clemson's lane that sealed their fate there.  But neither of those two could help, because they weren't on the floor.  All that being said, I say 12-6 because I do believe Beard, Watkins, Kingsley, Durham, and (I have to finally admit) the emerging Williams will minimize the psychological issues enough to win enough road games to get to that record.  Enough for NCAA?  Seriously bubblicious given the SEC right now.  Hogs have improved ever so incrementally in the Mike's years so far.  I wish Portis would stay with Whitt coming...we would see a serious shift then. 

[Dominicanhog]

@Georgia - L
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - W
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Tennessee - W
@Florida - L
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - W
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - L
LSU - W


13-5 and 3rd place in the SEC.

change the @ Tenn to an L and I agree..12-6 3rd in SEC... I'm also a bit worried about a slip up at home which would be very detrimental to our NCAA cause.

11-7 means we have to win 1 in the SECT if not 2.. would be putting our fate in the hand of the committee.

[The_Iceman]

10-8

I have to see consistent wins against VERY bad teams on the road to change my tune.

I thought Mike would never go over .500 in the SEC?

[nwahogfan1]

As of today I would predict losses at UGA, UK, UF, Ole Miss, Tennessee.

I am more inline with you.  I just don't see us winning on the road against quality SEC teams.   Should beat Auburn, Mo and Ms St on the road.

[razCzar]

HOME: 8-1 is solid bet
ROAD:  with an early win at either GA or TN > 5-4 / otherwise 4-5

So 13-5, if we get rolling early;  12-6 otherwise

[jry04]

I am thinking 12-6, but starting to lean towards 13-5. Tennessee is not a very good team, and seem to be getting thinner by the week. A bench PF decided to transfer last week, and now their freshman PF is injured for 6-8 weeks. That is two players who were averaging 12 or more minutes a game that are now out for our game. We suck on the road, but Tennessee sucks in general, so it may be one of those games that goes down to the wire in a 50-48 type game. Neither are huge losses, but when you need depth against us, it may be difficult for them to win being shorthanded.

We should win @ MSU and @ Missouri without a doubt. I think we win @ Ole Miss and @ Auburn, too.

[HF#1]

@Georgia - L
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - W
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Tennessee - W
@Florida - L
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - W
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - W
LSU - W

14-4

2 victories in the SEC Tournament.

[gmarv]

the schedule looks like a very doable 9-0 at home. we need to win 4 on the road to show the kids were capable of winning games away from home.by the way how many of the teams in the conference do you think are better than smu.who knows which ones we get but I,m going with 4 road games.

[Hoggish1]

Conference play officially starts 2 weeks from tomorrow, let's get some predictions going...

@Georgia - W
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - L
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Tennessee - W
@Florida - W
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - L
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - L
LSU - W

13-5, and good enough for second in the SEC.

I would love to believe this.  Still too many stretches where the pace is out of control.

I love the speed we can play with, just don't like it when we steal the ball and give it right back to the other team.  This happened way to many times last night.

It was a good thing UW-M wasn't shooting well.

[hawgbawb]

10-8 or 11-7.  I'm going with 11-7 and a SECT win to get us in the NCAA.

[MikePiazza]

@Georgia - L
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - W
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Tennessee - W
@Florida - L
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - W
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - W
LSU - W

14-4

2 victories in the SEC Tournament.

I endorse this one. That'd put us 25-6 going into SECT, and if we win 2 in Nashville we'd be 27-7 going into Selection Sunday. I would say we'd get a 5 or 6 seed in that scenario.

[HF#1]

I endorse this one. That'd put us 25-6 going into SECT, and if we win 2 in Nashville we'd be 27-7 going into Selection Sunday. I would say we'd get a 5 or 6 seed in that scenario.

In this conference, with this team, no reason we shouldn't win 12+ games.

[hogman99]

@Georgia - L
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - L
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - L
Tennessee - W
@Florida - L
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - L
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - L
LSU - W

[bigred223]

@Georgia - L
Vandy - W
@Tennessee - L
Ole Miss - W
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - L
Tennessee - W
@Florida - L
South Carolina - W
Miss State - W
@Auburn - L
@Ole Miss - L
Missouri - W
@Miss State - W
Texas AM - W
@Kentucky - L
@South Carolina - L
LSU - W

wrong.

[jry04]

wrong.

Yeah, I find it extremely hard to believe we cannot win at least 3 games out of @MSU, @ AUB, @Tenn, @MIZZOU, @ OM, and @ SC. I know we lost to Clemson, but SMU is better than all 6 of these teams, and a tougher place to play, so we at least have the ability.

I think SC and OM are the two best teams in that group, but OM has lost to some really bad teams, and struggled to some other bad teams. Stop Summers and they are nothing.

[hogman99]

Yeah, I find it extremely hard to believe we cannot win at least 3 games out of @MSU, @ AUB, @Tenn, @MIZZOU, @ OM, and @ SC. I know we lost to Clemson, but SMU is better than all 6 of these teams, and a tougher place to play, so we at least have the ability.

I think SC and OM are the two best teams in that group, but OM has lost to some really bad teams, and struggled to some other bad teams. Stop Summers and they are nothing.

If we continue to play the way we have (no defense, too many quick 3 point shots, not going inside on a consistent basis and lack luster press) we will lose those games. 

If we can somehow make adjustments and figure out that the offense runs through Portis every time and play sound half court defense, then we have a much better chance to win those games.  Did you noticed on the one occasion when Portis posted up, he was quickly doubled team, but he passed it to a slashing Qualls for an easy dunk?  That is what I am talking about, try that more and then you get easy dunks, open shots or Portis scores.

[Kevin]

12-6

[Biggus Piggus]

Making predictions is hard until we know whether the Hogs will fold up and die the first time they play a conference road game.

Last year we won at Vandy (awful, ugly game), at MSU (awful, ugly game) and at Kentucky (brilliant).

We lost at TAM (awful), Georgia (played hard but shot miserably), Tennessee (might have been a game except for the refs), LSU (no Qualls, Harris), Missouri (squeaker), and Alabama (Hogs had to change their diapers 10 times in that game).

Big changes this year --

The SEC has more good defensive teams.

Only Vanderbilt and TAM are good outside shooting teams, and the Hogs get them both at BWA.

[jry04]

If we continue to play the way we have (no defense, too many quick 3 point shots, not going inside on a consistent basis and lack luster press) we will lose those games. 

If we can somehow make adjustments and figure out that the offense runs through Portis every time and play sound half court defense, then we have a much better chance to win those games.  Did you noticed on the one occasion when Portis posted up, he was quickly doubled team, but he passed it to a slashing Qualls for an easy dunk?  That is what I am talking about, try that more and then you get easy dunks, open shots or Portis scores.

In fairness, some of those teams I listed are not any better than most of these teams we struggle for a half with and then beat by 20-30 points.

[Atlhogfan1]

I want to say 13-14 games with confidence.  Hard to see where a home loss comes from or where there will be more than 5 road losses.  But I mentioned the roller coaster earlier and it hasn't stopped for many years going back to when Mike was at Mizzou.  I don't see it possible to predict a W/L this far out on the road.  And without that guard who can be relied upon defensively and offensively, the offensive X factor in Qualls who still disappears, Harris and Williams duo still not being trustworthy and giving teams so many good looks, it is hard to trust then.  I still don't know what the answer is out of the Bell, Madden, Durham, Beard mix as none has complete enough of a game not to have their deficiencies exposed in conference play.  Can Portis keep up this shooting performance, when will teams make him put it on the floor vs getting good looks from 15 feet out, will he continue to recognize double teams and get teammates good looks or hit cutters?  He is going to have a lot on himself most games. 

I do think it is a positive SEC teams have not shown to be good perimeter shooting teams yet.  UK and SMU didn't hurt us from the outside and we managed to win those two on the road(plus their FT shooting).  End possessions with defensive rebounds and we won't have as much trouble especially risking sending teams like UGa to the FT line when they get 2nd and 3rd shot opportunities. 

[hogman99]

In fairness, some of those teams I listed are not any better than most of these teams we struggle for a half with and then beat by 20-30 points.

I hope you are right, but I would have loved to see us work on the things I listed in the last few non-conference games.  Those are the things that will get us a win in the tournament, not how we have been playing against lesser teams.

I am afraid if we play like that on the road, those blowouts you speak of may be closer than expected.  If that happens, we have a much better chance to lose as has been proven.

[Mr. Porkleone]

My prediction

[attachment deleted by admin]

[bigred223]

If we continue to play the way we have (no defense, too many quick 3 point shots, not going inside on a consistent basis and lack luster press) we will lose those games. 

If we can somehow make adjustments and figure out that the offense runs through Portis every time and play sound half court defense, then we have a much better chance to win those games.  Did you noticed on the one occasion when Portis posted up, he was quickly doubled team, but he passed it to a slashing Qualls for an easy dunk?  That is what I am talking about, try that more and then you get easy dunks, open shots or Portis scores.

I agree with what you're saying here. However, some of these teams are absolute dumpster fires.

[ErieHog]

I agree with what you're saying here. However, some of these teams are absolute dumpster fires.

If a team can score 72PPG in conference play, it will be hard not to fall into 10 wins.

[mhuff]

12-6 I think we lose to UGA...beat vandy and beat Tenner and after that who knows.

[Letsroll1200]

I think we will win all our home games but the only two that concerns me at home is S. Carolina and LSU. I can see 5 road wins TENN, Mizzou, Florida(payback), Ole Miss and Miss State.

[Danny J]

I think we will win all our home games but the only two that concerns me at home is S. Carolina and LSU. I can see 5 road wins TENN, Mizzou, Florida(payback), Ole Miss and Miss State.

Funny enough I think we will play better at UF than we will at UGA.

[98hogs]

3 losses on the road, conference is terrible.  Nolan would have the second team in by half in his hey day with this conference

Nolan would take three loses on the road in the SEC any day

[cityhog]

I thought Mike would never go over .500 in the SEC?

This league is pathetic. He should be able to manage 10-8.