Bubble Watch

[revolution]

So I looked at all conferences, and if you take every conference leader and all teams below 50 in the RPI, that's 65 teams.

That leaves room for 3 upset winners in conference tourneys, but if the favorite then had an RPI over 50, they'd be competing against a Power 5 Conference team with a better RPI, strength of schedule, quality wins, etc.

Teams that could steal bids with conference tourney championships:

Stony Brook (maybe Vermont still gets in from America East?)
Houston, Memphis, Connecticut, Tulsa (adds another AAC)
Richmond, Rhode Island  (adds another A10 team)
TCU, K-State, Texas Tech (adds another Big 12)
Providence, Marquette  (adds another Big East)
Michigan, Ohio State  (adds another Big 10)
Charleston, Towson  (UNC Wilmington still in from Colonial Athletic)
Louisiana Tech (Middle Tennessee still in from Conference USA)
St. Peter's or Iona (Monmouth still in from MAAC)
Ohio, Buffalo (Akron still in from Mid American)
Northern Iowa (adds one to Missouri Valley)
Boise St., New Mexico (Nevada still in from Mtn. West)
Utah, Colorado (adds one from Pac 12)
Tennessee, Georgia (adds one from SEC)
Arkansas St., Coastal Carolina (UTA still in from Sun Belt)
BYU, Santa Clara  (adds one to West Coast Conference)

Conferences not listed are only getting one in - the conference tournament winner.  No regular season champ from these other conferences is getting in if they lose their tournament.

So 16 bid-stealing scenarios.  But not many are likely. 

Most likely to add bids with upsets in conference tournaments:  Colonial Athletic, Conference USA, MAAC, Mid America and Sun Belt.

[Atlhogfan1]

So I looked at all conferences, and if you take every conference leader and all teams below 50 in the RPI, that's 65 teams.

That leaves room for 3 upset winners in conference tourneys, but if the favorite then had an RPI over 50, they'd be competing against a Power 5 Conference team with a better RPI, strength of schedule, quality wins, etc.

Teams that could steal bids with conference tourney championships:

Stony Brook (maybe Vermont still gets in from America East?)
Houston, Memphis, Connecticut, Tulsa (adds another AAC)
Richmond, Rhode Island  (adds another A10 team)
TCU, K-State, Texas Tech (adds another Big 12)
Providence, Marquette  (adds another Big East)
Michigan, Ohio State  (adds another Big 10)
Charleston, Towson  (UNC Wilmington still in from Colonial Athletic)
Louisiana Tech (Middle Tennessee still in from Conference USA)
St. Peter's or Iona (Monmouth still in from MAAC)
Ohio, Buffalo (Akron still in from Mid American)
Northern Iowa (adds one to Missouri Valley)
Boise St., New Mexico (Nevada still in from Mtn. West)
Utah, Colorado (adds one from Pac 12)
Tennessee, Georgia (adds one from SEC)
Arkansas St., Coastal Carolina (UTA still in from Sun Belt)
BYU, Santa Clara  (adds one to West Coast Conference)

Conferences not listed are only getting one in - the conference tournament winner.  No regular season champ from these other conferences is getting in if they lose their tournament.

So 16 bid-stealing scenarios.  But not many are likely. 

Most likely to add bids with upsets in conference tournaments:  Colonial Athletic, Conference USA, MAAC, Mid America and Sun Belt.

Good research.  I don't think we so much will have to worry about it unless SC completely tanks and we somehow end up winning just 2-3 of our next 6 (SEC and 1 done in SECT). 

The AACT is one which seems as if it could be wide open as to who could win it. 

This may be the toughest seeding job the committee has had to do.  Either going to make for an interesting and entertaining NCAAT or some unbalanced brackets and clear paths for some teams. 

[SPAL]

It's simple. Win our home games and don't lose to somebody stupid in the SECT and we are in. Beat Auburn or Florida for an added cushion.