THE All Things NCAA Bracket Thread

[jbcarol]

Jerry Palm @jppalmCBS  ·  8 minutes ago

friday bracket http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology ...

Fri Jan 30 05:23:30 2015

[azhog10]

SEC is a bottom feeder conference......no way they get 6 in

-Jumpball Forum

/sarcasm off

[Cresthog]

That would be decent. I think we could take Louisville. They don't have much offense.

[latrops]

It looks to be, just going by overall and conference records, that 5 is the likely number at this point.  I don't see who the 6th would be.  If someone outside the current top 5 were to play themselves in, it is equally likely that someone in the current top 5 would play themselves out.  Still, 5 is a good number this year, after only having 3 last year.

[Hawg Red]

SEC is a bottom feeder conference......no way they get 6 in

-Jumpball Forum

/sarcasm off

People have actually been very complimentary of the SEC this season, and deservedly so.

[Swinesong1]

People have actually been very complimentary of the SEC this season, and deservedly so.

On this board?  Are you serious?

[Hawg Red]

On this board?  Are you serious?

Yes. I've seen numerous discussions on the SEC's improved RPI and the belief that the SEC will get 4-5 teams in this year.

[Swinesong1]

Yes. I've seen numerous discussions on the SEC's improved RPI and the belief that the SEC will get 4-5 teams in this year.

Numerous by the same two people.  Everyone else says the SEC is terrible and weak.

[Hawg Red]

Numerous by the same two people.  Everyone else says the SEC is terrible and weak.

Let's see, I've seen Adam Stokes, Danny J, Iceman, -Blu, myself, and several others talk about how much better the SEC this year. Maybe you're talking about some randoms dissing the league. I don't count those people.

[Biggus Piggus]

Unlike most of these bracket things, Ken Pomeroy has the only system that, on a continuous basis, projects the full regular season when ranking teams.

Pomeroy's numbers change everytime a new game result occurs. Schedule strength changes, expected future outcomes change.

According to Pomeroy's formula, Arkansas ranks 43rd right now. That would be squarely on the bubble, should it prove true. And then the SECT would be all-important.

Using his cumulative probability, Arkansas would finish 22-9, 11-7 SEC, after standing at 16-4, 5-2 today. That would be a finish of 6-5. To remind, those last 11 include six road games.

The only reason why Pomeroy's formula rates the Hogs on the bubble is defense.

Especially the 3-point defense, where Arkansas has allowed 36% shooting for the season and 45% in SEC games.

Georgia: Made 45%, season average 37%
Vandy: Made 43%, season average 38%
Tenn: Made 46% (Knoxville) and 36% (BWA), season average 36%
Miss: Made 53%, season average 35%
Alabama: Made 50%, season average 32%
Missouri: Made 39%, season average 34%

The Hogs' lack of D turned even ordinary shooters into great ones. It is not luck.

A little improvement could be all-important. See how merely holding the Vols to their average enabled the Hogs to beat them at home.

SEC-only shooting averages for Hogs' remaining opponents:

43% Kentucky
37% Mississippi State
36% Florida
36% LSU
35% Auburn
35% Ole Miss
34% Missouri
34% Texas A&M
31% South Carolina

It's not a home-road issue. Bama and Ole Miss shot way-way-way over their averages at BWA.

[azhog10]

People have actually been very complimentary of the SEC this season, and deservedly so.

You can't be serious.......

[azhog10]

Let's see, I've seen Adam Stokes, Danny J, Iceman, -Blu, myself, and several others talk about how much better the SEC this year. Maybe you're talking about some randoms dissing the league. I don't count those people.

I get it, you are only counting the one's who have said positive things about the conference, the ones that are saying the SEC is weak as ever don't count? Okay LOL I am with you now.

[Hawg Red]

I get it, you are only counting the one's who have said positive things about the conference, the ones that are saying the SEC is weak as ever don't count? Okay LOL I am with you now.

I'm not counting people who I've never really seen post around here saying the SEC is weak. Those are randoms. Their contributions to the forum are minimal and not taken seriously by me. The actual regular posters in this forum are not singing that tune, though. The perception of the SEC by those posters in his forum is different than it was last season.

Unless someone wants to show me otherwise. I'll glad admit I'm wrong if someone can do that.

[Cresthog]

One has to wonder what is going on with the 3 pt defense.

It'd be nice if our media didn't suck so bad and actually brought these things up in the pressers.

[Swinesong1]

Unlike most of these bracket things, Ken Pomeroy has the only system that, on a continuous basis, projects the full regular season when ranking teams.

Pomeroy's numbers change everytime a new game result occurs. Schedule strength changes, expected future outcomes change.

According to Pomeroy's formula, Arkansas ranks 43rd right now. That would be squarely on the bubble, should it prove true. And then the SECT would be all-important.

Using his cumulative probability, Arkansas would finish 22-9, 11-7 SEC, after standing at 16-4, 5-2 today. That would be a finish of 6-5. To remind, those last 11 include six road games.

The only reason why Pomeroy's formula rates the Hogs on the bubble is defense.

Especially the 3-point defense, where Arkansas has allowed 36% shooting for the season and 45% in SEC games.

Georgia: Made 45%, season average 37%
Vandy: Made 43%, season average 38%
Tenn: Made 46% (Knoxville) and 36% (BWA), season average 36%
Miss: Made 53%, season average 35%
Alabama: Made 50%, season average 32%
Missouri: Made 39%, season average 34%

The Hogs' lack of D turned even ordinary shooters into great ones. It is not luck.

A little improvement could be all-important. See how merely holding the Vols to their average enabled the Hogs to beat them at home.

SEC-only shooting averages for Hogs' remaining opponents:

43% Kentucky
37% Mississippi State
36% Florida
36% LSU
35% Auburn
35% Ole Miss
34% Missouri
34% Texas A&M
31% South Carolina

It's not a home-road issue. Bama and Ole Miss shot way-way-way over their averages at BWA.

43rd is on the bubble?  That would translate to a 10 or 11 seed.  Doesn't each region have 16 seeds? So by my calculation, that's 20 teams we would be ahead of and that's not counting the play in teams.

[PonderinHog]

43rd is on the bubble?  That would translate to a 10 or 11 seed.  Doesn't each region have 16 seeds? So by my calculation, that's 20 teams we would be ahead of and that's not counting the play in teams.

How many automatic qualifiers?

[Swinesong1]

How many automatic qualifiers?

What does that matter?  A bubble team is one who may get in or may not get in.  Getting in before 20+ other teams is not on the bubble.

[Adam Stokes]

Again, it really just comes down to how many can separate themselves from the middle and how many can win against Kentucky.  It's starting to look more like Arkansas and Georgia will be #2 and #3, but after that it's a crap shoot.  The SEC could end up with 3 or have 8.  Using Bracketmatrix and the suggested cut-off line, the contenders are:

+13 LSU - have one of the tougher SEC schedules in that they get Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and A&M twice.  Doing well now but it could turn south, heck they are responsible for Missouri's only counference win.
+6 A&M

-4 Ole Miss
-7 Tennessee
-10 Bama
-13 Florida

If we want more rep for the SEC, we need the Vandy's and MSU's to stay in the cellar and have Kentucky lose 3 games or so.  They would still get a 1 seed but it would be a huge boost for the middle-tier conference teams.

If we simply want to make sure that Arkansas makes the tournament, we want to finish at least 12-6 and have a whole bunch of 10-8's, because then they can't compete with us on paper because of our non-conference resume.  The SEC is getting at least 3 regardless, 12-6 will be good enough for that (and that's my prediction of where I see us finishing.)

The SEC isn't leaps and bounds better than last year quality wise, but I feel through scheduling it will do a better job of showing up in RPI.  A team with a RPI last year in the mid-50's will be closer to 40 simply due to the SEC's improved scheduling.

[Atlhogfan1]

First [CENSORED] reply.  Some of you deserve to have to read the negative darn you can't mentally handle just for continuing to cry. 

The SEC played the game better this season.  It is why the conference invested in the scheduling consultant.  And it may be deeper this season or at least it may compared to what college basketball is this season.  And relative to this season is all that matters. 

The strength of the conferences, perceived strength, is reflected somewhat in the seeding. 

[trashcan maN]

What does that matter?  A bubble team is one who may get in or may not get in.  Getting in before 20+ other teams is not on the bubble.

31 teams get automatic bids for winning their conference tournament.

Only about 10 conferences get multiple bids on a given year, which means 15-20 bids are sucked up by schools who would have little shot at getting in had they not won their tournament.

Even more bids are sucked up if a bad team in a power conference wins their tournament. Think Mississippi State.

Because of the things I just said, there are only about 45 bids to be fought over by legitimate teams. If we are #43, we are squarely on the bubble of getting one of those final spots left after garbage schools fill up a third of the field from automatic bids.

[PonderinHog]

[Swinesong1]

31 teams get automatic bids for winning their conference tournament.

Only about 10 conferences get multiple bids on a given year, which means about 20 bids are sucked up by schools who would have no shot at getting in had they not won their tournament.

Even more bids are sucked up if a bad team in a power conferences wins their tournament. Think Mississippi State.

Because of the things I just said, there are only about 45 bids to be fought over by legitimate teams. If we are #43, we are squarely on the bubble of getting one of those final spots left after garbage schools fill up a third of the field from automatic bids.

Sure

[trashcan maN]

Sure

You're welcome.

[GuvHog]

Again, it really just comes down to how many can separate themselves from the middle and how many can win against Kentucky.  It's starting to look more like Arkansas and Georgia will be #2 and #3, but after that it's a crap shoot.  The SEC could end up with 3 or have 8.  Using Bracketmatrix and the suggested cut-off line, the contenders are:

+13 LSU - have one of the tougher SEC schedules in that they get Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and A&M twice.  Doing well now but it could turn south, heck they are responsible for Missouri's only counference win.
+6 A&M

-4 Ole Miss
-7 Tennessee
-10 Bama
-13 Florida

If we want more rep for the SEC, we need the Vandy's and MSU's to stay in the cellar and have Kentucky lose 3 games or so.  They would still get a 1 seed but it would be a huge boost for the middle-tier conference teams.

If we simply want to make sure that Arkansas makes the tournament, we want to finish at least 12-6 and have a whole bunch of 10-8's, because then they can't compete with us on paper because of our non-conference resume.  The SEC is getting at least 3 regardless, 12-6 will be good enough for that (and that's my prediction of where I see us finishing.)

The SEC isn't leaps and bounds better than last year quality wise, but I feel through scheduling it will do a better job of showing up in RPI.  A team with a RPI last year in the mid-50's will be closer to 40 simply due to the SEC's improved scheduling.

IMHO it would not be a shock for the SEC to get 5 or 6 teams in the big dance because some of the other big 5 conferences as a whole are down some this year. For example:

The ACC has 3 teams that are good but the rest are meh.

The Big Ten has 3 teams that are good as well but the rest are meh.

The Big 12 has the same thing.

the Pac 12 may only have 2 good teams

Those conferences getting less bids than normal will be beneficial to the SEC.

[jared72404]

Sure

How do you not get this?

[EastexHawg]

What does that matter?  A bubble team is one who may get in or may not get in.  Getting in before 20+ other teams is not on the bubble.

It matters because if Stephen F. Austin, Coastal Carolina, Princeton, and Jackson State get in as automatic qualifiers...along with numerous other AQ teams...it won't matter if you're rated 43rd or not.  They are in the field regardless.  There are only so many at-large spots.

As for the SEC...it's terrible.  It's Kentucky and the 13 Dwarfs.  I look at the rest of the Hogs' schedule and I see maybe 4 games even a decent team might have a chance to lose.

After Florida, look at our next three games...South Carolina.  AWFUL.  Mississippi State.  AWFUL.  Auburn.  AWFUL.

Then, after we play at Ole Miss...Missouri.  AWFUL.  Mississippi State again...AWFUL.

Any poor to mediocre team could play that schedule and go 5-2 in its next seven.  When your "tough" games during that stretch are against 11-9 Florida and 13-7 Ole Miss, who the heck believes you're playing in a good basketball conference?

It sucks.

[Swinesong1]

It matters because if Stephen F. Austin, Coastal Carolina, Princeton, and Jackson State get in as automatic qualifiers...along with numerous other AQ teams...it won't matter if you're rated 43rd or not.  They are in the field regardless.  There are only so many at-large spots.

As for the SEC...it's terrible.  It's Kentucky and the 13 Dwarfs.  I look at the rest of the Hogs' schedule and I see maybe 4 games even a decent team might have a chance to lose.

After Florida, look at our next three games...South Carolina.  AWFUL.  Mississippi State.  AWFUL.  Auburn.  AWFUL.

Then, after we play at Ole Miss...Missouri.  AWFUL.  Mississippi State again...AWFUL.

Any poor to mediocre team could play that schedule and go 5-2 in its next seven.  When your "tough" games during that stretch are against 11-9 Florida and 13-7 Ole Miss, who the heck believes you're playing in a good basketball conference?

It sucks.

You do realize that winning the regular season doesn't mean you go to the NCAAs don't you?  If a last place teams wins the tourney, in some conferences, that will be it's ONLY bid.  Not to mention the one or two conferences that don't have a tourney.  You all are going under the assumption that if different, both the regular season and tourney winner will get bids.   
And you are entitled to your opinion about the league.

[Nipsey Mussle]

You do realize that winning the regular season doesn't mean you go to the NCAAs don't you?  If a last place teams wins the tourney, in some conferences, that will be it's ONLY bid.  Not to mention the one or two conferences that don't have a tourney.  You all are going under the assumption that if different, both the regular season and tourney winner will get bids.   
And you are entitled to your opinion about the league.

[trashcan maN]

You all are going under the assumption that if different, both the regular season and tourney winner will get bids.   

No one in this thread thinks this.

[Swinesong1]

No one in this thread thinks this.

See Eastex post.  The number of automatic bids are constant at 32.  That doesn't lessen the Hog's chances if the last place SWAC team win it's tourney.  The SWAC was only gonna get one team in regardless.

[jared72404]

See Eastex post.  The number of automatic bids are constant at 32.  That doesn't lessen the Hog's chances if the last place SWAC team win it's tourney.  The SWAC was only gonna get one team in regardless.

There are plenty of conferences that wouldn't get a team in the tourney if it wasn't for the automatic bid. Those teams are taking the #64 ranked team spot, and so on. That is why the bubble isn't at the 64th ranked team, and is more likely to be around the 45th ranked team.

[Biggus Piggus]

See Eastex post.  The number of automatic bids are constant at 32.  That doesn't lessen the Hog's chances if the last place SWAC team win it's tourney.  The SWAC was only gonna get one team in regardless.

No, 36.

[Biggus Piggus]

43rd is on the bubble?  That would translate to a 10 or 11 seed.  Doesn't each region have 16 seeds? So by my calculation, that's 20 teams we would be ahead of and that's not counting the play in teams.

Went through this on another thread. Only 36 automatic bids. If everything goes right, and no top conference's tourney is won by a team that otherwise wouldn't make it in, then you are probably going to get the top 46-47 teams in the tournament.

Once the upsets start happening, then you have trouble. And the last few in are always debatable.

[Swinesong1]

Went through this on another thread. Only 36 automatic bids. If everything goes right, and no top conference's tourney is won by a team that otherwise wouldn't make it in, then you are probably going to get the top 46-47 teams in the tournament.

Once the upsets start happening, then you have trouble. And the last few in are always debatable.

36?  I'm pretty sure there are 31 automatic bids (conference tourney winners) and the IVY league regular season winner.

[Hogfaniam]

There are plenty of conferences that wouldn't get a team in the tourney if it wasn't for the automatic bid. Those teams are taking the #64 ranked team spot, and so on. That is why the bubble isn't at the 64th ranked team, and is more likely to be around the 45th ranked team.

32 auto qualifiers, with 8 good enough to get in on their own.  So yeah 45 is the point right now.

[azhog10]

It matters because if Stephen F. Austin, Coastal Carolina, Princeton, and Jackson State get in as automatic qualifiers...along with numerous other AQ teams...it won't matter if you're rated 43rd or not.  They are in the field regardless.  There are only so many at-large spots.

As for the SEC...it's terrible.  It's Kentucky and the 13 Dwarfs.  I look at the rest of the Hogs' schedule and I see maybe 4 games even a decent team might have a chance to lose.

After Florida, look at our next three games...South Carolina.  AWFUL.  Mississippi State.  AWFUL.  Auburn.  AWFUL.

Then, after we play at Ole Miss...Missouri.  AWFUL.  Mississippi State again...AWFUL.

Any poor to mediocre team could play that schedule and go 5-2 in its next seven.  When your "tough" games during that stretch are against 11-9 Florida and 13-7 Ole Miss, who the heck believes you're playing in a good basketball conference?

It sucks.

Hawg Red here's one!

[Swinesong1]

Went through this on another thread. Only 36 automatic bids. If everything goes right, and no top conference's tourney is won by a team that otherwise wouldn't make it in, then you are probably going to get the top 46-47 teams in the tournament.

Once the upsets start happening, then you have trouble. And the last few in are always debatable.

Broken down with each conference : http://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2014/8/11/5963473/2015-mens-college-basketball-conference-tournament-information

[Hogfaniam]

I don't see us a 5 yet.  I've got us sitting a solid 7.  If we win at Florida, we will move up in the rankings and up the seed tree.  Maybe to a low 5, maybe a high 6

[Swinesong1]

43rd is on the bubble?  That would translate to a 10 or 11 seed.  Doesn't each region have 16 seeds? So by my calculation, that's 20 teams we would be ahead of and that's not counting the play in teams.

The man has the Hogs ranked 43rd overall!  Again I ask, how is that translated to being a bubble team? http://kenpom.com

[trashcan maN]

The man has the Hogs ranked 43rd overall!  Again I ask, how is that translated to being a bubble team? http://kenpom.com

Because the tourney field is not made up of the top 68 teams. You really cant understand this?

[Danny J]

Numerous by the same two people.  Everyone else says the SEC is terrible and weak.

As of yesterday the SEC has 8 teams in the RPI top 60 which I believe, not 100% certain, is tops among all conferences. As we all know the RPI and non-conf SOS are the two biggest factors in the selection committees minds.

[Danny J]

First [CENSORED] reply.  Some of you deserve to have to read the negative darn you can't mentally handle just for continuing to cry. 

The SEC played the game better this season.  It is why the conference invested in the scheduling consultant.  And it may be deeper this season or at least it may compared to what college basketball is this season.  And relative to this season is all that matters. 

The strength of the conferences, perceived strength, is reflected somewhat in the seeding.

I agree and until the RPI formulations or the SOS formulations are changed then that is the game the league has to play. It was finally realized and as you mentioned the reason Greg Shaheen was hired.

[Swinesong1]

As of yesterday the SEC has 8 teams in the RPI top 60 which I believe, not 100% certain, is tops among all conferences. As we all know the RPI and non-conf SOS are the two biggest factors in the selection committees minds.

Thanks for sharing but I'm not in the "the SEC is awful/weak/horrible" crowd.

[Swinesong1]

Because the tourney field is not made up of the top 68 teams. You really cant understand this?

Well duh!  What I'm not believing is a man who has us ranked #43 overall would then say we are a bubble team.  Now if you want to pay to read his page and prove me wrong, I'll be more than happy.

[Danny J]

Thanks for sharing but I'm not in the "the SEC is awful/weak/horrible" crowd.

I never said you were. I was simply pointing out the SEC is doing really well in terms of criteria the selection committee uses.

[Swinesong1]

Because the tourney field is not made up of the top 68 teams. You really cant understand this?

Now can we put an end to this foolishness? http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/search/label/BP68

[jared72404]

The man has the Hogs ranked 43rd overall!  Again I ask, how is that translated to being a bubble team? http://kenpom.com

Because like others have stated, the top 45 or so teams will get a bid and the last bids go to automatic bids from winning their conference tourney. Being 43rd would put you barely inside the top 45. I'm not sure I can make it any more simple. Lets try this. When the tourney committee has 45 bids to give out, and they view you as the 43rd best team remaining, then you would most likely barely be in the tourney and be one of the teams discussed at the end of the season as being a bubble team.

[Swinesong1]

Because like others have stated, the top 45 or so teams will get a bid and the last bids go to automatic bids from winning their conference tourney. Being 43rd would put you barely inside the top 45. I'm not sure I can make it any more simple. Lets try this. When the tourney committee has 45 bids to give out, and they view you as the 43rd best team remaining, then you would most likely barely be in the tourney and be one of the teams discussed at the end of the season as being a bubble team.

It's always funny when the one doing the "educating" doesn't have a clue.  Ignorance is bliss I suppose.

[jared72404]

It always funny when the one doing the "educating" doesn't have a clue.  Ignorance is bliss I suppose.

Please explain what I don't have a clue about. You are trying to say that the 43rd ranked at the end of the season should easily be in the tournament and not be considered a bubble team, correct? You do realize that many teams have not made the tournament in the past with that ranking right?

[Swinesong1]

Please explain what I don't have a clue about. You are trying to say that the 43rd ranked at the end of the season should easily be in the tournament and not be considered a bubble team, correct? You do realize that many teams have not made the tournament in the past with that ranking right?

I went through the trouble of attaching Pomeroy's projected bracket for you.  Like I said, ignorance is bliss!