Pucker Up Stakes, 8th race at Arlington Saturday

[HogFanInBryant]

I am the first to admit that I SUCK at most turf races and have the track record to prove it lol.  But........

A buddy of mine has some connections in the sport and told me that Florent Geroux himself told him he has a HUGE shot to win this race on #5 Dame Marie.  I asked for details and all he told me was that the horse is doing great and they think they have found something in recent training that makes them feel like they now have a possible freak on their hands.

Would some of you take a look at the PP's on this one and give me your honest opinion?  I don't even think the morning line odds are out yet, so I have no idea what to think of this horse based on the info I was given.  Thanks ahead of time for any research you can come up with.

[kingoftherapids]

I think this one has a chance to hit the board if the track is not too firm. if speed holds on i wouldn't dare put this in an exacta. with the late running style and a good post and a track that comes up a little deep i think you could see this one do some damage. distance is a little concern as the best races have been at a mile.  as well as the extended time off, but i think it could be good here. intriguing info though. have to play it since you have the info!

[HogFanInBryant]

15-1 on the morning line odds.  Lets hope that they go real fast up front and that the turf course is favoring late runners.....thanks for the analysis KOTR.  I have been doing really good betting football so far this year so I might play $40wps on this one and try and break the bank!

[HogFanInBryant]

STAKES
Pucker Up S. (Grade III)

Purse $175,000. For Fillies, Three-Years-Old. One And One Eighth Miles. (Turf)
P#   PP   Horse   Virtual
Stable   A/S   Med   Jockey   Wgt   Trainer   M/L
1   1   Ann of the Dance (KY)      3/F   L   M Mena   118   W M Catalano   30/1
2   2   Treasured Up (KY)      3/F   L   T Thornton   118   A M Stall, Jr.   6/1
3   3   Zapper Belle (KY)      3/F   L   R B Homeister, Jr.   118   D C Peitz   30/1
4   4   Soonerette (OK)      3/F   L   T Riggs   120   D K Von Hemel   20/1
5   5   Dame Marie (KY)      3/F   L   F Geroux   118   E Kenneally   15/1
6   6   Rare Event (KY)      3/F   L   J K Court   118   V H Oliver   15/1
7   7   Freedom Reigns (IRE)      3/F   L   J Graham   118   D Matthews   6/1
8   8   Volcat (KY)      3/F   L   R Albarado   124   K G McPeek   6/1
9   9   Angegreen (ITY)      3/F   L1   M E Smith   118   H G Motion   7/2
10   10   Leading Astray (IL)      3/F   L   E E Perez   120   C M Block   6/1
11   11   Julia's Star (KY)      3/F   L   S O Madrid   120   J Scott   15/1
12   12   Miss Cato (GB)      3/F   L   F C Torres   120   R L Attfield   9/2

[heavylifting]

The fractions from her last race at Saratoga were painfully slow, she made a move according to the chart and still beat only one rival. She did bobble coming out of the gate, however.

By the way, the turf course at Saratoga that day was listed as "good." For comparison purposes, the main track was "muddy" for the first race and "fast" by the end of the card.

Of course, if the barn has "figured something out" anything is possible. And that 15-1 looks low to me; I'll venture that she goes off somewhere around 25-1 or 30-1.

The one that catches my eye is the filly shipping in from Italy for Graham Motion. He's got Mike Smith lined up to ride. Granted, Smith isn't riding Fairplex, but he might have had other options around the country. He has only one other mount on the card (3rd race). They might be using this as a stepping stone to the QE2 at Keeneland and/or the Breeders' Cup.

And the 30-1 on Zapper Belle is mouth-watering. Wasn't beaten all that badly in one of the divisions of the Hatoof Stakes on Arlington Million day, and now gets an upgrade to Rosemary Homeister.

Just remember -- these are 3-year-olds. They're still eligible to mature at this stage of the year, especially the late foals. Anything can happen.

[HogFanInBryant]

horse ran like he was being ridden by JLS, sorry for the bad info, no excuses just didn't fire at all

[HogFanInBryant]

Just wanted to give some info on the bad performance that I got.  My buddy was told the horse never lost its breath in the race but when Geroux asked for run the horse basically "spun its wheels" and that can only mean that for some reason it hated the racing surface that day.  If I get any future info I will share it, but I do apologize if anyone lost a substantial amount of $.....it sure was a pitiful performance when you go back and isolate this horse.