I know I'm reaching but...

[GuvHog]

the GUV has spoken

/thread


PP

Now if the Hogs manage to win a couple of SEC Tournament games after finishing with 21 wins in regular season to raise the win total to 23 they'd definitely be on the NCAA bubble and probably get in. I just don't believe 21 regular season wins and then going one and done in the SEC Tournament will get them there.

[Atlhogfan1]

I think it would be good for the SEC if SC weren't likely the mirage we think they are.  We'll know for sure after the UK game 2/13 as they have a tough stretch coming up.  The conference could use some more depth with teams separating themselves.  The way home/road is trending back to normal for the conference, seems like a lot of teams will be bunched together and it will come down to the unbalanced schedule playing a big part.  The schedule favors the Hogs this season.  LSU on the other hand still has another game with Florida, a trip to UK, two with A&M left and the non conf vs OU.  Can't say they don't have a chance for good wins. 

The SEC needs to hold their own vs the Big 12 in the non conf matchups. 

[jry04]

Now if the Hogs manage to win a couple of SEC Tournament games after finishing with 21 wins in regular season to raise the win total to 23 they'd definitely be on the NCAA bubble and probably get in. I just don't believe 21 regular season wins and then going one and done in the SEC Tournament will get them there.

23 wins puts us around a top 30 RPI. Would love to see what top 30 RPI teams from a major conference were considered bubble teams in the past. All the ones I know of are considered locks.

This is from RPI Forecast. I have followed them over the last few years, and they are usually pretty accurate with where the final RPI would be within a few points. Last year they were within 2 spots of being right for what our RPI would be with a final record of 24-7.

Final Record   Expected RPI   Probability
24-7   17.0   0.01%
23-8   22.4   0.23%
22-9   29.8   1.55%
21-10   38.6   5.09%
20-11   49.4   11.07%
19-12   62.0   18.19%
18-13   76.2   21.12%
17-14   91.7   19.11%
16-15   108.6   13.33%
15-16   125.3   6.72%
14-17   141.6   2.81%
13-18   158.8   0.60%
12-19   172.1   0.15%
11-20   197.0   0.01%


Obviously all of this changes based on other results. Like if Akron and Evansville start to plummet at the end of the season our final RPI will not be as good. However, based on what other teams are expected to do, these are the expected RPIs for the possible records. Akron was upset the other day, and dropped to 13-3. As an example, our projected RPI at 19-12 dropped from 58 to 62.

[Sharky]

Our resume is currently terrible. We haven't beaten any team with an RPI better than 70.

[Biggus Piggus]

Our resume is currently terrible. We haven't beaten any team with an RPI better than 70.

Just wait till the Hogs beat Kentucky.

[jry04]

Our resume is currently terrible. We haven't beaten any team with an RPI better than 70.

Nobody said it was good. Most teams with a 90+ RPI don't have a good resume. In a hypothetical scenario, winning 12-13 conference games plus TT would chance that resume quite a bit, though.