I know I'm reaching but...

[foosaddict]

  How many wins would it take to reach the dance without winning the SEC tourney?  22?  23? 

[hogsanity]

Some would depend on what the rest of the SEC does, but I would say 21 + 1 in the sect might get it done. That would mean they went something like 15-4 over the last 19 games.

[jry04]

21 total gets them in.

RPI would be top 50, SOS would be top 45. We would be considered one of the hottest teams in the country. We would also have a top 30 non-conference schedule.

[GuvHog]

21 total gets them in.

RPI would be top 50, SOS would be top 45. We would be considered one of the hottest teams in the country. We would also have a top 30 non-conference schedule.

It would get them in the NIT but that's about it.

[foosaddict]

 I don't think that's completely out of the realm of possibility to pull off.  I know we stank it up early but I kinda expected that with the loss of so many players.  I kinda figured it would take a while for these guys to gel together...  Honestly I didn't expect things to look as good as they do now...  This group doesn't give up and that's an intangible that should pay dividends down the stretch...  In some ways these guys have the potential to be the most complete team we've had in the MA era.  I think we'll give LSU a solid game and maybe even pull off a close win.  I think we stomp the KY jelly crew in front of their newest star recruit!

[Atlhogfan1]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

According to this gambling related site, predicted record improved after last night to 18-13.  28% chance of making NCAAT - 5th in the SEC.  Would improve much more with a win or two in the next week.  The conference is just not very good.  Need the top teams to win as much as possible except against the Hogs.  Otherwise, the Hogs will lack high quality wins. 

[Hawg Red]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

According to this gambling related site, predicted record improved after last night to 18-13.  28% chance of making NCAAT - 5th in the SEC.  Would improve much more with a win or two in the next week.  The conference is just not very good.  Need the top teams to win as much as possible except against the Hogs.  Otherwise, the Hogs will lack high quality wins. 

Sounds like we have a better shot at the NIT than originally thought. That would be big, IMO, to be able to salvage something out of this season.

[HF#1]

It would get them in the NIT but that's about it.

I really shouldn't even acknowledge this statement...

If you do a little bit of math, it doesn't take much to figure out that if we finish with 21 or 22 wins we would be one of if not the hottest team in the country.  We have 15 games left.  If we go 12-3, we will absolutely be in the tournament.  The committee would be stupid not to put us in.  It's probably never been done before.  Leave out a team that finished like that.  And that doesn't include the SEC tournament.

[GuvHog]

Sounds like we have a better shot at the NIT than originally thought. That would be big, IMO, to be able to salvage something out of this season.

Making the NIT would definitely be a big turn around IMHO.

[jry04]

It would get them in the NIT but that's about it.

You can think that all you want, but its more likely they are in the NCAAT with 21 wins than the NIT. It is ok if you don't understand how the selection process works, or how the RPI works.

Our RPI, at 21 wins, is projected to be in the 30s. Our SOS would be top 45. Those numbers are not being left out of the NCAAT barring tons of conference tournament upsets.

UCLA made it last season with a 20-13 record, and they had a RPI of 51 and SOS of 36 at the time of selection Sunday. 6 top 100 wins.

LSU made it last year 22-10 RPI of 61, SOS of 89. 11-7 in the conference, and just 3 top 50 wins. 6 losses to teams outside of the top 100. They made it in as a single digit seed.

Every year is different, but a top 40 RPI with a top 50 SOS from a major conference is rarely left out of the NCAAT.

[Atlhogfan1]

Sounds like we have a better shot at the NIT than originally thought. That would be big, IMO, to be able to salvage something out of this season.

Originally thought when?  After the Mercer loss or before the season?  I don't see where the season is much off the path yet except perhaps it has a loss or two more than many thought before the season(Mercer?, Akron?).

The SEC feels like at this point a 3-4 bid league out of A&M, UK, SC, LSU, Fl, OM(added based on curr record) and Hogs with the high seed a 4.  Good to be closer to that tier than the basement. 

[hogsanity]

Originally thought when?  After the Mercer loss or before the season?  I don't see where the season is much off the path yet except perhaps it has a loss or two more than many thought before the season(Mercer?, Akron?).

The SEC feels like at this point a 3-4 bid league out of A&M, UK, SC, LSU, Fl and Hogs with the high seed a 4.  Good to be closer to that tier than the basement. 

I thought they'd win 18 and nothing has changed.

[GuvHog]

You can think that all you want, but its more likely they are in the NCAAT with 21 wins than the NIT. It is ok if you don't understand how the selection process works, or how the RPI works.

Our RPI, at 21 wins, is projected to be in the 30s. Our SOS would be top 45. Those numbers are not being left out of the NCAAT barring tons of conference tournament upsets.

UCLA made it last season with a 20-13 record, and they had a RPI of 51 and SOS of 36 at the time of selection Sunday. 6 top 100 wins.

LSU made it last year 22-10 RPI of 61, SOS of 89. 11-7 in the conference, and just 3 top 50 wins. 6 losses to teams outside of the top 100. They made it in as a single digit seed.

Every year is different, but a top 40 RPI with a top 50 SOS from a major conference is rarely left out of the NCAAT.

Yes LSU and UCLA did make it to the big dance last year but what were their non conference regular season records???

[Hawg Red]

Originally thought when?  After the Mercer loss or before the season?  I don't see where the season is much off the path yet except perhaps it has a loss or two more than many thought before the season(Mercer?, Akron?).

The SEC feels like at this point a 3-4 bid league out of A&M, UK, SC, LSU, Fl, OM(added based on curr record) and Hogs with the high seed a 4.  Good to be closer to that tier than the basement.

Before the season. "A loss or two more" is pretty significant considering most projections had us around 16-18 wins on the season, don't you think?

[jry04]

Yes LSU and UCLA did make it to the big dance last year but what were their non conference regular season records???

You put much more emphasis on that than the committee does. Playing a top 30 strength of schedule non-conference and finishing 7-6 against them with out Anton for 5-6 of them will be viewed  much better than going 10-3 with a sub 100 SOS. Again, a team with a 30 RPI, top 50 SOS, and double digit conference wins would not be left out of the NCAAT because they stumbled a few times in non-conference with one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.


This is all irrelevant, because I do not see us getting close enough for it to become a real debate.

[Atlhogfan1]

Before the season. "A loss or two more" is pretty significant considering most projections had us around 16-18 wins on the season, don't you think?

No, it would be the difference in 16/17 wins and 18 wins if you bought into the 16-18 win prediction.  I don't remember all of us buying into the media's 11th place prediction. 

[HOGINTENNESSEE]

Well it depends on who we beat. We can get road wins at LSU at FL or UGA beat UK and A&m at home 21 may get us in.

But let's be honest it's not likely. I'm just glad we are playing well heading into without a doubt or toughest part of the Schedule.

[Hawg Red]

No, it would be the difference in 16/17 wins and 18 wins if you bought into the 16-18 win prediction.  I don't remember all of us buying into the media's 11th place prediction.

I remember seeing mostly 16-18 win predictions posted on this site by our own fans. What are you remembering?

[Atlhogfan1]

I remember seeing mostly 16-18 win predictions posted on this site by our own fans. What are you remembering?

Around that which is possibly where we are heading as of now.

[Hawg Red]

Around that which is possibly where we are heading as of now.

But we are also playing better, probably, than most expected. That opens up the possibility of getting better wins in conference, and maybe more road wins. Which would all increase our chances of making the NIT. If that site has us winning 11 conference games, that's more than most projections here had us winning. There were a lot of 7-9 win conference projections featuring just 1-2 road wins. We did worse in the non-con than almost anyone anticipated, but we could do better in SEC play. If this play continues, we'll also be in better position to win a game or two in the SECT than most probably figured we'd be in.

[Atlhogfan1]

But we are also playing better, probably, than most expected. That opens up the possibility of getting better wins in conference, and maybe more road wins. Which would all increase our chances of making the NIT. If that site has us winning 11 conference games, that's more than most projections here had us winning. There were a lot of 7-9 win conference projections featuring just 1-2 road wins. We did worse in the non-con than almost anyone anticipated, but we could do better in SEC play. If this play continues, we'll also be in better position to win a game or two in the SECT than most probably figured we'd be in.

Sure.  The NIT chances have never went away in my view. 

Yes 11 conference wins would be more.  SECT partly depends on matchup and if opponents care.  The conference season is long.  This time last season, Tenn was doing well.  Then their lack of depth had them hit a wall and they weren't very good by March.  Hog fans shouldn't take what they are seeing for granted as it has been rare to have guards shooting as well as they are right now.  And Kingsley has the opportunity to be the best post player the program has had in a long time. 

[Hawg Red]

Sure.  The NIT chances have never went away in my view. 

Yes 11 conference wins would be more.  SECT partly depends on matchup and if opponents care.  The conference season is long.  This time last season, Tenn was doing well.  Then their lack of depth had them hit a wall and they weren't very good by March.  Hog fans shouldn't take what they are seeing for granted as it has been rare to have guards shooting as well as they are right now.  And Kingsley has the opportunity to be the best post player the program has had in a long time.

You don't think the NIT chances ever went away, but you realize that was not a majority view. Which is where my original comment that you quoted came from.

[Atlhogfan1]

You don't think the NIT chances ever went away, but you realize that was not a majority view. Which is where my original comment that you quoted came from.

Your original comment was based on what fans "originally thought."  If that was before the season, then it is maybe a 1 or 2 game difference which didn't derail the season and we are now seeing some miraculous recovery.  One or two games didn't remove the NIT from possibility.  Now after the Mercer loss, some did go really pessimistic.  That is why I asked after Mercer or before the season. 

To get the thread back on track, again I see about half the SEC capable of playing themselves into the NCAA conversation with probably 2 locks in A&M and UK.  SC has work to do.  I think if LSU misses it, it will be an underachievement to say the least even with Hornsby missing the start of the season.  It is good the Hogs are in this half right now. 

[Hawg Red]

Your original comment was based on what fans "originally thought."  If that was before the season, then it is maybe a 1 or 2 game difference which didn't derail the season and we are now seeing some miraculous recovery.  One or two games didn't remove the NIT from possibility.  Now after the Mercer loss, some did go really pessimistic.  That is why I asked after Mercer or before the season. 

Our best non-con win was Evansville. Yes, losing to Mercer and Akron (and Stanford) had a very adverse impact on our postseason outlook. We entered conference play with a losing record!

No one thought Vanderbilt would struggle like that did, and I don't remember seeing anyone project a win in that game. That's where the come started. Then we won a road game by 30. We could, in fact, be seeing a miraculous recovery from where we ended the non-con season.

[Atlhogfan1]

Just looking at other sites:

http://kenpom.com/

Hogs are 6th in the SEC and 48th overall.  Hogs non conf SOS 191st.  SOS 95th.

[Atlhogfan1]

Our best non-con win was Evansville. Yes, losing to Mercer and Akron (and Stanford) had a very adverse impact on our postseason outlook. We entered conference play with a losing record!

No one thought Vanderbilt would struggle like that did, and I don't remember seeing anyone project a win in that game. That's where the come started. Then we won a road game by 30. We could, in fact, be seeing a miraculous recovery from where we ended the non-con season.

We were 6-6 out of the non conference with TT left. 

I have no doubt some of you will see a miracle in this.  If the SEC suddenly becomes a strong, deep conference then maybe it would have merit. 

[jry04]

Just looking at other sites:

http://kenpom.com/

Hogs are 6th in the SEC and 48th overall.  Hogs non conf SOS 191st.  SOS 95th.

Huge discrepancy between that and the RPI. I like KenPom, but the NCAA doesn't even consider it. Currently, the number the NCAA will use has our non-conference SOS at 50. If teams like Akron, North Florida, and Evansville can continue to have success and climb  up the rankings, then our SOS should only go up with the addition of Texas Tech in a few weeks.

It is too bad we cannot use our rank for KenPom of 48, but the actual SOS that the NCAA uses.

ESPN has our BPI rank at 48, and our SOS at 20. That is a pretty interesting metric, too.

[GuvHog]

You put much more emphasis on that than the committee does. Playing a top 30 strength of schedule non-conference and finishing 7-6 against them with out Anton for 5-6 of them will be viewed  much better than going 10-3 with a sub 100 SOS. Again, a team with a 30 RPI, top 50 SOS, and double digit conference wins would not be left out of the NCAAT because they stumbled a few times in non-conference with one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.


This is all irrelevant, because I do not see us getting close enough for it to become a real debate.

Not true. LSU made it to the NCAA tournament last year after having only gone 11-7 in conference play because of their strong non conference record. If they'd had a poor non conference record they wouldn't have even sniffed of the NCAA Tournament with that 11-7 conference record.

[Atlhogfan1]

CBS' RPI

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

Hogs 94th
SOS 32nd
Non conf SOS 48

No bad losses
No top 50 wins
Best win Vandy 69th
2-4 vs Top 100

Chances for top 50 wins
10 A&M home
12 UK home
20 Texas Tech home
26 SC home
29 Florida road

With the amount of home chances, the schedule isn't daunting and provides an opportunity.

Again, just CBS' guess at the numbers. 

[Atlhogfan1]

Huge discrepancy between that and the RPI. I like KenPom, but the NCAA doesn't even consider it. Currently, the number the NCAA will use has our non-conference SOS at 50. If teams like Akron, North Florida, and Evansville can continue to have success and climb  up the rankings, then our SOS should only go up with the addition of Texas Tech in a few weeks.

It is too bad we cannot use our rank for KenPom of 48, but the actual SOS that the NCAA uses.

ESPN has our BPI rank at 48, and our SOS at 20. That is a pretty interesting metric, too.

Yes there is. 

[Wisco Pig]

http://kenpom.com/  -- Hogs are 6th in the SEC and 48th overall.  Hogs non conf SOS 191st.  SOS 95th.

KenPom having us at 48 seems a little high.   Jerry Palm of CBS (as noted above) and Warren Nolan have the Hogs at 94 and 95 this morning -- both guys publish rankings that generally track pretty well with the NCAA's official RPI.

If we can sneak out of Baton Rouge with a win Saturday, we can start having a lot more fun with this discussion.

[Hawg Red]

We were 6-6 out of the non conference with TT left. 

I have no doubt some of you will see a miracle in this.  If the SEC suddenly becomes a strong, deep conference then maybe it would have merit.

Yeah, you're right. It's like that A&M game never happened for me. Only glanced down occasionally while watching the bowl game.

[Atlhogfan1]

Huge discrepancy between that and the RPI. I like KenPom, but the NCAA doesn't even consider it. Currently, the number the NCAA will use has our non-conference SOS at 50. If teams like Akron, North Florida, and Evansville can continue to have success and climb  up the rankings, then our SOS should only go up with the addition of Texas Tech in a few weeks.

It is too bad we cannot use our rank for KenPom of 48, but the actual SOS that the NCAA uses.

ESPN has our BPI rank at 48, and our SOS at 20. That is a pretty interesting metric, too.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/RPI

RPI is 77th 
Conf SOS will improve quickly from 89th.

It is interesting how the different sites guess at the numbers. 

[Atlhogfan1]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/23

Just the SEC view:

2015-16 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (10) Kentucky .6541 13-3 18 39 28 19 77 2-0 2-1 2-1 9-3 46 7.8 8.5 16.3
2 (12) Texas A&M .6497 14-2 53 58 51 16 109 1-0 4-1 2-1 10-2 26 8.3 9.9 18.2
3 (27) South Carolina .6166 14-0 263 41 293 21 131 0-0 0-0 3-0 12-0 35 9.2 7.0 16.2
4 (28) Florida .6158 10-6 5 69 5 67 68 0-3 1-1 2-2 7-5 24 3.0 12.2 15.2
5 (46) Ole Miss .5882 12-3 176 19 281 20 42 0-1 0-0 3-1 10-2 103 4.3 3.4 7.6
6 (61) Alabama .5809 9-5 64 13 112 130 12 0-4 2-1 0-0 8-4 44 -4.6 9.0 4.3
7 (64) Vanderbilt .5755 9-7 19 73 34 150 81 0-2 1-3 1-1 5-7 50 8.1 10.2 18.2
8 (65) Georgia .5746 8-5 14 93 16 122 84 0-0 1-3 0-2 8-4 54 1.2 9.7 10.9
9 (77) Arkansas .5606 9-7 33 137 48 35 89 0-2 0-2 2-1 7-5 68 13.3 -0.6 12.7
10 (85) Tennessee .5547 8-7 15 103 20 142 78 0-1 1-4 0-0 6-6 87 9.5 0.3 9.8
11 (104) Auburn .5460 7-8 35 96 52 154 82 0-1 0-2 1-3 5-7 126 6.4 -2.8 3.6
12 (119) LSU .5363 9-6 128 87 215 17 57 1-0 0-2 1-2 6-6 65 11.7 -0.7 11.0
13 (147) Missouri .5155 8-8 69 167 59 207 143 0-1 0-2 1-5 6-6 64 -1.3 6.2 4.9
14 (180) Mississippi State .4912 7-8 151 70 264 158 31 0-4 0-0 0-2 6-6 164 5.4 1.3 6.7

LSU at 119

Hogs get Mizzou, MSU and Tenn twice which should help the record but limits the RPI win chances.  Good to get a chance vs A&M and UK at home. 

[hogsanity]

So much goes into making the ncaat, especially for the last 10-12 at large bids, that are outside of that particular teams sphere of influence. Does the SEC come on strong in February? Does the ooc schedule teams fall off the earth. Did that team you beat in Jan that was looking pretty tough end on a 2-8 slide? Do some of the mid major conferences have upsets in their conf tournaments and get an extra team in, and probably a dozen other things.  Whereas 20-25 years ago 20 wins was almost a sure bet, trying to guess a number now is almost like trying to pick 5 white and 1 red ball for a billion and a half dollars.

[jry04]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/RPI

RPI is 77th 
Conf SOS will improve quickly from 89th.

It is interesting how the different sites guess at the numbers. 

I have followed this pretty closely throughout the years. CBS uses the most accurate current RPI. They use the same one the NCAA uses. RPI Forecast is always relatively accurate with predicting where someone would finish with a certain record. They were 2 off on ours last season at 24-7.

[Wisco Pig]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/23

Just the SEC view:

2015-16 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (10) Kentucky .6541 13-3 18 39 28 19 77 2-0 2-1 2-1 9-3 46 7.8 8.5 16.3
2 (12) Texas A&M .6497 14-2 53 58 51 16 109 1-0 4-1 2-1 10-2 26 8.3 9.9 18.2
3 (27) South Carolina .6166 14-0 263 41 293 21 131 0-0 0-0 3-0 12-0 35 9.2 7.0 16.2
etc.

Thanks.  ESPN's numbers for all the SEC teams "in front of us" track pretty well to Palm (CBS) and Nolan's rankings, but there's quite a discrepancy with Arkansas:   77 in ESPN vs. 94 or 95.

Also, I agree with jry04.   Palm's data at CBS is usually in keeping with the NCAA's RPI.

[azhog10]

I hate seeing us get into these discussions after three wins. Not that we shouldn't, but I feel like we are jinxing ourselves talking about it. Let's just enjoy the way we are playing right now and wait till we get deeper in SEC play as we have to make up at least three losses from our OOC schedule before we are taken seriously at all in the NCAAT discussions.

[Wisco Pig]

I agree that we've got a long row to hoe before any of this means much.   

[nwahogfan1]

  How many wins would it take to reach the dance without winning the SEC tourney?  22?  23? 

I think it depends also on who we beat.  Maybe 22 wins gets us in but maybe not.  We have to beat some top 25 schools to elevate us into the top 35.   I also think we need one or two good wins on the road.  LSU win would be huge.

[foosaddict]

  We are starting to look like a complete team for sure.  The thing that has me jazzed the most is we appear to have not 1, not 2, but 3 bigs capable of puttin' the bootie on you, making a move and taking it strong to the bucket!  If only Steven Hill...

[The_Iceman]

The more important question we need to look at is what do we need to make the NIT? If Mike were to somehow get us into postseason play (NIT), I would be pleased with this season. Missing the postseason should not be acceptable here at this point.

[The_Iceman]

Yeah, you're right. It's like that A&M game never happened for me. Only glanced down occasionally while watching the bowl game.

I honestly wonder how many Arkansas fans don't even realize that game happened.

[azhog10]

I honestly wonder how many Arkansas fans don't even realize that game happened.

My parents actually went to the TAMU game......unfortunately

[MikePiazza]

How I see it unfolding rest of the way:

1/16 at LSU L
1/21 UK W
1/23 at UGA W
1/27 A&M W
1/30 TTU W
2/3 at Florida L
2/6 Tennessee W
2/9 at MSU W
2/13 at OM L
2/17 Auburn W
2/20 Mizzou W
2/23 LSU W
2/27 at Tennessee W
3/2 at Alabama L
3/5 S. Carolina W
___________________
20-11 (13-5 SEC)

[Hawg Red]

How I see it unfolding rest of the way:

1/16 at LSU L
1/21 UK W
1/23 at UGA W
1/27 A&M W
1/30 TTU W
2/3 at Florida L
2/6 Tennessee W
2/9 at MSU W
2/13 at OM L
2/17 Auburn W
2/20 Mizzou W
2/23 LSU W
2/27 at Tennessee W
3/2 at Alabama L
3/5 S. Carolina W
___________________
20-11 (13-5 SEC)

Ambitious.

But would be amazing. And there's a better than small chance that they can do it.

[The_Iceman]

How I see it unfolding rest of the way:

1/16 at LSU L
1/21 UK W
1/23 at UGA W
1/27 A&M W
1/30 TTU W
2/3 at Florida L
2/6 Tennessee W
2/9 at MSU W
2/13 at OM L
2/17 Auburn W
2/20 Mizzou W
2/23 LSU W
2/27 at Tennessee W
3/2 at Alabama L
3/5 S. Carolina W
___________________
20-11 (13-5 SEC)

Mine:
1/16 at LSU L
1/21 UK W
1/23 at UGA L
1/27 A&M L
1/30 TTU W
2/3 at Florida L
2/6 Tennessee W
2/9 at MSU W
2/13 at OM L
2/17 Auburn W
2/20 Mizzou W
2/23 LSU W
2/27 at Tennessee L
3/2 at Alabama L
3/5 S. Carolina W
___________________
17-14 (10-8 SEC)


If we were to finish 20-11 like you suggest, and get a win or two in the SECT, I think we might slide into the bubble range, but most likely be a high NIT seed.

[MikePiazza]

Ambitious.

But would be amazing. And there's a better than small chance that they can do it.

I just think that normally they play really well in the non-conference and then regress a little bit in the league. I think it's the opposite this year. Plus, most of these guys (sans Jimmy Whitt & Willy Kouassi & Dusty) were a part of all those league wins last year. So it's not out of the realm of possibility to think they could match last year's win total, especially with the improvement of Bell & Kingsley & Durham, and the addition of Hannahs.

[Pulled(PP)pork]

It would get them in the NIT but that's about it.

the GUV has spoken

/thread


PP

[Biggus Piggus]

I thought they'd win 18 and nothing has changed.

For the Hogs to win 18, I thought they would have to win 9-10 nonconference games, not 6-7.