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Chad Morris first year W-L will be compared to other coaches

Started by parallaxpig, February 08, 2018, 05:09:16 pm

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Earth Hog Fan

Quote from: rljjr on February 08, 2018, 11:07:09 pm
9-3 bc the pieces are there on offense and our D just got tons better with the Chief and new D staff.

CCM wins SEC Coach of the Year.

You sing and I'll pat my foot. I really like the tune you are playing.  I would not be shocked to see this come to pass. Coach Morris has so many more options at QB as well as other positions within this team that he did not have at SMU. Expect this team to exceed our expectations this year and in the future. I think Coach Chad Morris could be the reincarnation of Coach Frank Broyles. For all you nay Sayers on here, you better hitch up the wagon or you are going to be left behind.  GO HOGS!



Re: Chad Morris first year W-L will be compared to other coaches
« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2018, 10:32:13 pm »
•    Quote
________________________________________
I say 8-4.  Coach Morris has the "It" factor in my book.  This staff is creating
a new infusion into old school Hog ball.  All you naysayers chirp away!  Ha! Ha!
Ha Ha Ha !  This guy is really that good.



Re: Chad Morris first year W-L will be compared to other coaches
« Reply #26 on: February 08, 2018, 11:07:09 pm »
•    Quote
________________________________________
9-3 bc the pieces are there on offense and our D just got tons better with the Chief and new D staff.

CCM wins SEC Coach of the Year.

Quote from: HogPharmer on February 08, 2018, 05:19:50 pm
15-0

Hammerdown

I'm drinking to this! +1!




I had never heard of Musselman. But he's a teacher, demands discipline and builds from the defensive end first. I want our football coach to be just like him."

PorkSoda

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/grading-the-season-openers-for-all-20-first-year-college-football-coaches/

this is a list of first year coaches last year.  I don't have time right now so I'm just posting the article, but I'm curious what they average # of wins ended up being for first year coaches last year.
"I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity." ― Edgar Allan Poe
"If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet. Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real." – Niels Bohr
"A mind stretched to a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions" ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.

 

bphi11ips

Quote from: Busta_Nutt on February 14, 2018, 12:45:29 pm
Really looking forward to this season of Inside Edition: bphi11

Agree with most of your points here. However, I don't think Colorado State is a gimme. They run a great offense under Bobo and have enough talent to keep it interesting.

Agreed Colorado State isn't a gimme, but they lost about 90% of their production on offense from last year.  They killed Oregon State in their new stadium, but Oregon State was historically bad.  We should win that game.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

volkh

327 - 0.  I got a feeling this is the year and reality will have no base in my false opinion!
"Son, it's not how you play the game, but how drunk you get."

-Homer J. Simpson

Warrior Way 22

I could see 7-8 wins before the bowl. I think we will get all 4 non-conference (I'm not saying it will be a cake walk, but we SHOULD win those games). I also think we will beat Vandy, Missouri, and Ole Miss. On the fence about A&M and Mississippi St, but if we split with those 2 then it's 8 wins. I think we would all be happy with that outcome.
"Warriors should suffer their pain silently."

HeathWimp

4-8.  Lose to CSU, beat the other non-conference teams.  Beat Vandy for an SEC win.
11/19/2023:  Keeping my original semi-prophetic, apocalyptic signature below.  We continue to regret passing on Norvell, who is in the running for the Playoffs.  We continue regret passing on Kiffin, who is eyeing a New Years 6 game.  Heck, we regret passing on Drinkwitz (he may be a dork, but he will have his team in a New Years 6 game after they truck us on Black Friday).

Meanwhile, Sam is drinking Pittman, wondering if he has the leverage to re-hire Enos, Sexton is doing the triple Lindy into his Olympic-size pool full of cash, and thousands of hog fans are planning to dress up as empty seats for next year's Halloween game.

11/25/2018:  My original "Chad Morris" signature is below.  I'm modifying my view as follows:  We will continue to regret passing on Norvell and Kiffin.   After 3 years, when Morris is 10-26, we are going to be saying "What were we thinking?  Even Bert was better than this!"

HeathWimp

Quote from: rhames on February 09, 2018, 03:35:01 pm
It would be interesting to see what people were predicting for Bielema's first year and Petrino's. My memory says a lot of the same predictions  as this thread.



The truth is none of us know for sure how much talent is or isn't on the roster. Not getting the ball to TJ Hammonds enough doesn't provide enough information either way. Bret absolutely under achieved but I'm not so sure he left a stock pile of talent for a new coach with a totally different philosophy to come in right away and go 8-4.


I could end up being totally surprised and totally wrong. I hope I am.

I predicted 3-9 for Bert's first season.  I was called an idiot, troll, etc. by the people who were predicting 8 or 9 wins.  We saw how that turned out.
11/19/2023:  Keeping my original semi-prophetic, apocalyptic signature below.  We continue to regret passing on Norvell, who is in the running for the Playoffs.  We continue regret passing on Kiffin, who is eyeing a New Years 6 game.  Heck, we regret passing on Drinkwitz (he may be a dork, but he will have his team in a New Years 6 game after they truck us on Black Friday).

Meanwhile, Sam is drinking Pittman, wondering if he has the leverage to re-hire Enos, Sexton is doing the triple Lindy into his Olympic-size pool full of cash, and thousands of hog fans are planning to dress up as empty seats for next year's Halloween game.

11/25/2018:  My original "Chad Morris" signature is below.  I'm modifying my view as follows:  We will continue to regret passing on Norvell and Kiffin.   After 3 years, when Morris is 10-26, we are going to be saying "What were we thinking?  Even Bert was better than this!"

LZH

Quote from: DLUXHOG on February 09, 2018, 12:31:14 pm
I'm drinking to this! +1!

That had a big hand in why fat boy is no longer our coach......go easy.   :P

cjack

8 - 4 and a bowl game against Ok State. We don't have quite enough firepower in year one to keep up with the mullet so we lose in a shootout. Finish 8 - 5.
Woooo Pig Soooie!

SooieGeneris

February 15, 2018, 12:17:56 am #109 Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 01:05:14 am by SooieGeneris
Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 10, 2018, 04:00:21 pm
CBP should have won 6 first season.  Choked away one at UK.

That team could have eked out 6 wins, but also could have been 0-12 or 2-10. The biggest win was by 8 points over Tulsa and we hung on by our fingernails.

Had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to beat W. Ill..

Had to come from way behind to beat ULM on a 4th down pass to Chris Gragg, a true freshman, his first catch in college.

Beat Auburn on the road with a TD pass by Joe Adams.

Beat Tulsa by 8 in large part due to a kickoff return for a TD by Dennis Johnson.

Beat LSU on a 4th down pass from Casey Dick to London Crawford.

Every win and a few of the losses went right to the end.. 

A lot of fans were complaining about BP after that season, but it was truly a testament as to how good he can be that that team won 5 games.

With Dick at QB, a bunch of freshmen WRs, a 170 lb RB, no returning LBs or safeties really. DMac and Felix Jones left with a year remaining.. With Hooten as HC, that team might have won 2 or 3 at most.
KJ Jefferson, one of only 2 QBs in UA history to go 2-0 in Bowl Games..

Mac attack: McAdoo & McGlothern co-winners of the Thorpe Award 2023?

SooieGeneris

February 15, 2018, 01:00:41 am #110 Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 01:16:34 am by SooieGeneris
I'm not ready to make a prediction yet. I'll wait until after the spring game. My gut says 6 wins is likely with a possibility of 7 or 8, but that's only if we have good luck with injuries and get some breaks.

Like not getting Marc Curles' crew all season, unless it's vs E. Ill. or a game like 'Bama in which we're big underdogs anyway. That guy and his crew are good for a minimum of a TD a game for our opponents going back at least to 2009 at Fla.

The thing most people forget about schedules is: it's not just who you play, but when you play them oftentimes.

For instance, in my research I discovered not one team on our schedule has a bye the week before we play them. Why would anyone think they need a bye to get ready for us in the BB era? They might have needed a bye afterward to ice down the QB's arm from 5-6 TD passes and them and the RBs hitting their heads on the goal posts over and over..

3 of our SEC foes play 'Bama the week before they play us, A&M, LSU and MSU. Those three will spend a lot of time in the tub that week. It hasn't helped much vs LSU the last 2 years, but Bert is gone and Cajun Bert is still there.

Auburn has played us with a vengeance the last 5 years. Gus' arch enemy is gone, so the coach scorned thing is not in play, plus they play LSU the week before us. The heat really got turned up on Gus after channeling his inner Bert and blowing a big halftime lead in 2017. Plus UA got him a big raise... a let down might be in order by them.

I don't see Col. State as a gimme, they are not a cupcake for sure. I like our chances though because we catch them between their instate rival CU Buffaloes and Florida the week after us.

We have two tough stretches, at Auburn, A&M at Jerry World and 'Bama at home in 3 consecutive weeks.

The 2nd one is at the end with LSU, @ MSU and @ Mizzou after a bye before LSU. A lot will depend on getting on a roll and avoiding injuries.

In the 3rd year of Cajun Bert with no Guice, a new QB and the 3rd OC in three years, a guy who has not been an OC in like 20 years, the Corndogs may start slipping this year. I think they will.

MSU will be a bit of a mystery team. A lot of returning players including Fitzgerald, but a new staff. I'm not one to dismiss Joe Moorhead. He was a HC at Fordham before going to PSU as OC, kind of like Chip Kelly going from OC at New Hampshire or some outpost to OC at Oregon, then HC.

Not saying he is a Chip Kelly, but he is a very highly regarded coach and took an awful Penn St. offense and made them into an explosive one. Then he put together a good recruiting class there with not a lot of connections to the area.

Then Mizzou is another mystery team. That offense is really good, very explosive at times, but mostly vs weak defenses. They did not beat a team with a winning record in 2017. IMO Odom is in over his head and most of the success came in spite of a weak defense, supposedly his specialty. Who does THAT sound like?

Derek Dooley as OC? Not sure that is a good move either. Dooley has never been an OC at any level I read somewhere.

The only bad things I see about the schedule are that 'Bama plays ULL the week before us and OM plays ULM the week prior. I really don't think it would matter on 'Bama, they could be playing anybody between ULL and the Patriots the week before us and still be favored by at least 2 TDs. It might help OM though to have a tomato can team before us, as long as John L. Smith isn't "coaching" for OM..

KJ Jefferson, one of only 2 QBs in UA history to go 2-0 in Bowl Games..

Mac attack: McAdoo & McGlothern co-winners of the Thorpe Award 2023?

hogsolutely

Luckily the scheduled sets up where the pigs could get 6 to 7 wins.  But, this is a completely new team coaching staff, etc.  I also wouldn't be surprised if we only got 4 or 5 wins.  I like our schedule set up for a new coach.     

rzrbaxfan

Quote from: PorkSoda on February 14, 2018, 01:33:38 pm
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/grading-the-season-openers-for-all-20-first-year-college-football-coaches/

this is a list of first year coaches last year.  I don't have time right now so I'm just posting the article, but I'm curious what they average # of wins ended up being for first year coaches last year.

Here's some info....

22 first year coaches
Avg win total: 6.4
Coaches with 10+ wins: 4
Coaches with winning records: 14

Take away the G5's and just look at the P5 coaches...
10 first year coaches
Avg win total: 6.4
Coaches with 10+ wins: 1 (Oklahoma)
Coaches with winning records: 6

OU had a phenomenal year, and Riley walked into about as good of a situation as any first year coach could expect.  Similarly, Baylor had a terrible year, and Snow started off in a pretty terrible situation for a first year head coach.  If you consider them outliers and exclude them, first year P5 coaches averaged, you guess it, 6.4 wins.


 

Dominicanhog

I'd be happy with a bowl and promise for the future.. I'll hope for better but worse would not be unexpected.....

rzrbaxfan

Quote from: PorkSoda on February 14, 2018, 01:33:38 pm
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/grading-the-season-openers-for-all-20-first-year-college-football-coaches/

this is a list of first year coaches last year.  I don't have time right now so I'm just posting the article, but I'm curious what they average # of wins ended up being for first year coaches last year.

More data....

In 2016, there were 27 first year head coaches.  Minnesota's first year coach was gone at the end of his first year, so he'll be excluded from this.  For the 26 others who had a year 2 in 2017, I found something interesting....

Year 1 average wins:  5.6       
Year 2 average wins: 6.3

For the 26 coaches, 5 saw no improvement in their win total from year 1 to year 2; 7 did worse in year 2, averaging 2.5 more losses; and 14 improved on their win total from year 1 to year 2, averaging almost 3 more wins.

Now, over 60% of those 2016 first year coaches were G5.  Let's look at just the 10 coaches from P5....

Year 1 average wins:  5.7       
Year 2 average wins: 7.9

For these 10 P5 2016 first year coaches coaches, only 2 did worse in their second year (Lovie at Ill and Fuente at Va Tech, 10 wins 2016 9 in 2017).  8 of the 10 did better in year 2, averaging 3 more wins in the second year.