Be happy with the Tennessee win

[niels_boar]

1. Tennessee is really good.  They beat Purdue, which most computers consider to be top 5 at the moment. Their only two losses are to #1 Nova, who they led by 12 at half, and top-10 UNC.  Their game against UNC was almost identical to ours.  UT led almost the entire game before being caught late.  Tennessee has the schedule to back up their standing as a top-10 defense.  There is no reason to do a lot of soul-searching or throw any players under the bus because we didn't treat them like a rental car in BWA.

2. Tennessee is a bad matchup.  Their only weaknesses on D are fouling a bit too much and giving up too much on the offensive glass.  We are the worst offensive rebounding team in the SEC, partly because we emphasize transition D over crashing the boards, and scoring at the line is not a particular strength.  Their considerable talent at denying anything inside the arc matched up well with our offense.  Guess what? It didn't matter. We converted 61% in deuces, as opposed to 46% for UNC, 38% for Purdue, and 52% for Nova.  That's why we ultimately won. 

On offense Tennessee is strong from the perimeter, moves the ball well for good looks, is good on the glass, and doesn't turn the ball over much.  We held then to 46% on deuces, where they are weak, and kept them well below their average on the offensive glass.  However, the Vols didn't turn the ball over, which took away an advantage that we have on D, and hurt us on the perimeter.  We need to shore up the arc defense, but neither result was terribly surprising.  In regulation they didn't score any less efficiently against UNC or Nova.  The OT made a defensive scrum look like a shootout.

There was no reason to believe that this game wasn't going to be close unless one team played well below potential.

3.  Arkansas had some disadvantages in terms of game readiness.  We played a difficult nonconference schedule, but it was frontloaded.  In the last four weeks we played one Power 5 team.  The other opponents were solid ballclubs, but you can get away with some stuff against Colorado State that won't work against an opponent as strong as the Vols.  UT, by contrast, had played two Power 5 teams on the road and UNC at home in that time.  UT had recently spent more time in the blast furnace getting rid of some of the impurities than we had, and that concerned me.  I'm not surprised that we needed to work some things out.

4.  Arkansas had played no close games in nonconference, which also worried me.  That we surged late and won in OT was a relief.  The team showed impressive perseverance, as it did last season.

5.  There just isn't a huge separation from #1-#14 in the SEC this season.  Most of the games were two-possession close this weekend.  If you don't bring your A-game on any night, you're liable to go home with a loss.  All it takes is for a role player to bank in a trey and a good shooter to miss a couple of open shots to even matchups out. Survive and advance. 

[hawgbawb]

good analysis

[runich]

Niels, I'm extremely curious as to what career you have...as you do an awesome job analyzing things statistically.  I always enjoy reading your posts...thanks and Happy New Year! 

[Dirty]

Also the Vols banked in two shots that were, I would say, lucky!

[USChog]

Excellent write up and even better win.

[Piglet]

I totally agree with the fifth assessment.  There isn't a lot of separation in the league this year.  From what I have seen in the early games, it will be hard for any team, including Kentucky, to win road games.  It's going to be a frustrating year if you pin your hopes on the Hogs winning most of their road games.  On the positive side, a tougher league will help with the tournament seeding and preparing the team for tournament play.  It's going to be a great year for basketball!

[HognitiveDissonance]

I am happy, and it was a great win.
Tennessee is for real. They had a solid resume coming in, and watching them play they are a very good team. To come into Bud Walton against a team and crowd like that and control the game for 39 minutes says a lot about them. Barnes has them going in Year 3.

But the Hogs were better after 45 minutes and got the job done. I still say Oklahoma was a better win, but this one is close. Tenn and OK are both solid teams.

Really important to get that home win, with two road games looming. I would take 1 of 2 and not get too greedy.

[synthartist69]

Don't forget to add that Bud Walton was booming, which I say should be good for 6 to 10 Arkansas points. But I do love this Basketball team!!!!

[HF#1]

I was/am extremely pleased we won the game.

[Little Lady Back]

1. Tennessee is really good.  They beat Purdue, which most computers consider to be top 5 at the moment. Their only two losses are to #1 Nova, who they led by 12 at half, and top-10 UNC.  Their game against UNC was almost identical to ours.  UT led almost the entire game before being caught late.  Tennessee has the schedule to back up their standing as a top-10 defense.  There is no reason to do a lot of soul-searching or throw any players under the bus because we didn't treat them like a rental car in BWA.

2. Tennessee is a bad matchup.  Their only weaknesses on D are fouling a bit too much and giving up too much on the offensive glass.  We are the worst offensive rebounding team in the SEC, partly because we emphasize transition D over crashing the boards, and scoring at the line is not a particular strength.  Their considerable talent at denying anything inside the arc matched up well with our offense.  Guess what? It didn't matter. We converted 61% in deuces, as opposed to 46% for UNC, 38% for Purdue, and 52% for Nova.  That's why we ultimately won. 

On offense Tennessee is strong from the perimeter, moves the ball well for good looks, is good on the glass, and doesn't turn the ball over much.  We held then to 46% on deuces, where they are weak, and kept them well below their average on the offensive glass.  However, the Vols didn't turn the ball over, which took away an advantage that we have on D, and hurt us on the perimeter.  We need to shore up the arc defense, but neither result was terribly surprising.  In regulation they didn't score any less efficiently against UNC or Nova.  The OT made a defensive scrum look like a shootout.

There was no reason to believe that this game wasn't going to be close unless one team played well below potential.

3.  Arkansas had some disadvantages in terms of game readiness.  We played a difficult nonconference schedule, but it was frontloaded.  In the last four weeks we played one Power 5 team.  The other opponents were solid ballclubs, but you can get away with some stuff against Colorado State that won't work against an opponent as strong as the Vols.  UT, by contrast, had played two Power 5 teams on the road and UNC at home in that time.  UT had recently spent more time in the blast furnace getting rid of some of the impurities than we had, and that concerned me.  I'm not surprised that we needed to work some things out.

4.  Arkansas had played no close games in nonconference, which also worried me.  That we surged late and won in OT was a relief.  The team showed impressive perseverance, as it did last season.

5.  There just isn't a huge separation from #1-#14 in the SEC this season.  Most of the games were two-possession close this weekend.  If you don't bring your A-game on any night, you're liable to go home with a loss.  All it takes is for a role player to bank in a trey and a good shooter to miss a couple of open shots to even matchups out. Survive and advance.

Good perspective, Niels.

[clew]

There were two moments during the game (watching on tv) where the crowd noise gave me chills. It's been a looooong time...

As good as we are on offense, the defensive hustle (and oh my lord, the traps!!!) are what really sets the crowd on fire.  Getting a defensive stop and then converting one on the offensive end is gasoline on the fire.  Gafford's slam to take the lead was incredible. We really looked out of sync during the game on offense, but were able to play through it thanks to our defense.  Here's to hoping for continued defensive excellence throughout the rest of the season.

[Kevin McPherson]

1. Tennessee is really good.  They beat Purdue, which most computers consider to be top 5 at the moment. Their only two losses are to #1 Nova, who they led by 12 at half, and top-10 UNC.  Their game against UNC was almost identical to ours.  UT led almost the entire game before being caught late.  Tennessee has the schedule to back up their standing as a top-10 defense.  There is no reason to do a lot of soul-searching or throw any players under the bus because we didn't treat them like a rental car in BWA.

2. Tennessee is a bad matchup.  Their only weaknesses on D are fouling a bit too much and giving up too much on the offensive glass.  We are the worst offensive rebounding team in the SEC, partly because we emphasize transition D over crashing the boards, and scoring at the line is not a particular strength.  Their considerable talent at denying anything inside the arc matched up well with our offense.  Guess what? It didn't matter. We converted 61% in deuces, as opposed to 46% for UNC, 38% for Purdue, and 52% for Nova.  That's why we ultimately won. 

On offense Tennessee is strong from the perimeter, moves the ball well for good looks, is good on the glass, and doesn't turn the ball over much.  We held then to 46% on deuces, where they are weak, and kept them well below their average on the offensive glass.  However, the Vols didn't turn the ball over, which took away an advantage that we have on D, and hurt us on the perimeter.  We need to shore up the arc defense, but neither result was terribly surprising.  In regulation they didn't score any less efficiently against UNC or Nova.  The OT made a defensive scrum look like a shootout.

There was no reason to believe that this game wasn't going to be close unless one team played well below potential.

3.  Arkansas had some disadvantages in terms of game readiness.  We played a difficult nonconference schedule, but it was frontloaded.  In the last four weeks we played one Power 5 team.  The other opponents were solid ballclubs, but you can get away with some stuff against Colorado State that won't work against an opponent as strong as the Vols.  UT, by contrast, had played two Power 5 teams on the road and UNC at home in that time.  UT had recently spent more time in the blast furnace getting rid of some of the impurities than we had, and that concerned me.  I'm not surprised that we needed to work some things out.

4.  Arkansas had played no close games in nonconference, which also worried me.  That we surged late and won in OT was a relief.  The team showed impressive perseverance, as it did last season.

5.  There just isn't a huge separation from #1-#14 in the SEC this season.  Most of the games were two-possession close this weekend.  If you don't bring your A-game on any night, you're liable to go home with a loss.  All it takes is for a role player to bank in a trey and a good shooter to miss a couple of open shots to even matchups out. Survive and advance.

Excellent post. I'll just add that the game was much like the FLA game was last year = first SEC gm played in late Dec, Gators were ranked and Hogs were on the brink of being ranked ... Gators controlled tempo and led throughout, and every time Arkansas made any kind of run to close within 1-2 possessions, the Gators countered and stretched the lead to 3-4 possessions ... all of that is attributable to how the Vols-v-Hogs played out, UNTIL the final 3-4 minutes that is ... Arkansas simply didn't put up the fight late against FLA that it mounted against TN, and that made all the difference. I think Gafford in the lineup is the X factor. As good as Macon and Barford are, the WHOLE things runs much better when Gafford is on the floor. Offense is easier and D is tougher.

Having said that, and looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if the Hogs' problems at the FT line hurt them on the road. Last season, Hogs were a phenomenal 76.1% as a team, and that was a big part of several close road wins last season (TA&M, TN, Vandy, LSU, SCar, and Auburn all come to mind).

This season, Arkansas is 68.6% on FTs. Daryl Macon is right at his percentage from last season -- 87% -- and we know he's Arkansas's best closer, but Jaylen Barford's FT shooting has slipped (from 75.2% last season to 69.0% so far this year), and he and Daniel Gafford (55.7%) have taken the most FT attempts on the team this season (58 and 70, respectively). Arkansas is a better defensive team than it was last year, and better shooting team so far, but we know that in 1-2 possession games late, winning and losing boils down to the FT line. Something to keep an eye on, especially with 2 road games this week.

[Iwastherein1969]

Rick Barnes circled the game at Fayetteville against the Hogs for three main reasons. (1) Obviously, it's the first game of the conference season and a win on the road against Arkansas would get UT off to a flying start. (2) Barnes record against Mike is 2-6, Mike has his number and Barnes wants desperately wanted to begin to turn that losing record to CMA around. Well, that didn't happen, it (the head to head v Mike) only got worse. Now Mike is 7-2 against Rick Barnes. (3) The Razorbacks have beaten UT 5 in a row, another number I'm sure the UT coach used to get his team's attention during practice time for the Hogs. Well, Barnes almost pulled it off, but he just couldn't quite get to that finish line with his and his Vols nose in front.  They wanted us badly and it took every bit of the Bud Walton "mojo" to turn back the Vols this season.

On to Mississippi State where we rarely have won even in Nolan's best days. Good luck, Hogs !

[Dr. Starcs]

Tenner bout to lose to auburn on their home court.

[Breems]

Tenner bout to lose to auburn on their home court.

Ugh, of course.

[razorbackchamps94]

He happy bout what? Auburn beat them at Tenn

[Breems]

Now be sad with the MSU loss. MSU won't do shiz in this conference with that terrible offense. Huge waste.

[niels_boar]

He happy bout what? Auburn beat them at Tenn

Auburn elite at offensive rebounding.  Defensive rebounding is Tennessee's weakness.  Auburn had 22 offensive rebounds. They rebounded half their misses.   It's all about matchups.

http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=654686.0

[niels_boar]

Now be sad with the MSU loss. MSU won't do shiz in this conference with that terrible offense. Huge waste.

I warned you.

There just isn't a huge separation from #1-#14 in the SEC this season.  Most of the games were two-possession close this weekend.

What about that did you not understand?  So, don't get pissy with me. 

Vandy in theory is the worst team in the SEC, and they controlled Bama for most of the game tonight.

[Kevin McPherson]

This season, Arkansas is 68.6% on FTs. Daryl Macon is right at his percentage from last season -- 87% -- and we know he's Arkansas's best closer, but Jaylen Barford's FT shooting has slipped (from 75.2% last season to 69.0% so far this year), and he and Daniel Gafford (55.7%) have taken the most FT attempts on the team this season (58 and 70, respectively). Arkansas is a better defensive team than it was last year, and better shooting team so far, but we know that in 1-2 possession games late, winning and losing boils down to the FT line. Something to keep an eye on, especially with 2 road games this week.

Well, I feared this would happen ... 5-of-12 FTs on the road equals a loss every time.

[Breems]

I warned you.

What about that did you not understand?  So, don't get pissy with me. 

Vandy in theory is the worst team in the SEC, and they controlled Bama for most of the game tonight.

I'm not pissy with you. Commenting on the Hogs failing to capitalize on the opportunity MSU gave us by shooting 42% FG, 19% 3-pt, and 60% FT on their home floor.

There's still going to be a bottom tier of the conference which helps put bad losses on the resume. My personal belief is MSU winds up there. They did not look good tonight.

[niels_boar]

Well, I feared this would happen ... 5-of-12 FTs on the road equals a loss every time.

Yep.

[niels_boar]

I'm not pissy with you. Commenting on the Hogs failing to capitalize on the opportunity MSU gave us by shooting 42% FG, 19% 3-pt, and 60% FT on their home floor.

There's still going to be a bottom tier of the conference which helps put bad losses on the resume. My personal belief is MSU winds up there. They did not look good tonight.

Yeah, they probably will finish in the bottom half of the conference, but they are #65 in Pomeroy.  That's puts them firmly in NIT status, like essentially every team in the SEC this season.  Home-away pretty much eats up most of the difference in ranking between the top and bottom when predicting the games.  That's why every victory should be savored.  The SEC is going to be a bloodbath.