CBS Bracketology

[Razorback4]

CBS updated the it bracketology today (meaning after the UK loss) and they bumped us up to a 4 seed in the south....

[Squealers]

I just don't want to be one of those higher seeded teams that gets knocked off early by the low seed wunderkinds.

[HOGINTENNESSEE]

I just don't want to be one of those higher seeded teams that gets knocked off early by the low seed wunderkinds.

So you want us to lose out?

I want any seed outside of the 8/9 game. Worst seed in the tourney

[popcornhog]

So you want us to lose out?

I want any seed outside of the 8/9 game. Worst seed in the tourney

Yeah, I'd like to see us get as high as possible.

If we win out and win the SECT with a win over Kentucky, we'd get a three with an outside shot at a two.

Otherwise, I suspect we'll be in the 4-6 range no matter what.
Maybe a 7 if we go 0-2 and 0-1 in Nashville.

[Danny J]

Yeah, I'd like to see us get as high as possible.

If we win out and win the SECT with a win over Kentucky, we'd get a three with an outside shot at a two.

Otherwise, I suspect we'll be in the 4-6 range no matter what.
Maybe a 7 if we go 0-2 and 0-1 in Nashville.

That's the way I see it also. I think realistically we will be a 6 seed.

[rowdy1]

Realistically we are probably a 5 or 6 seed

[MissippHog]

I almost dread a 5/12 matchup more than the 8/9. 

[pigroots]

Will likely end up a 5 unless we string together 4-5 more wins. 4 is probably the ceiling with 6-7 being the floor

[Poker_hog]

4 seed would be nice.  It'd set us up for a sweet sixteen run

[Razorback4]

If we pull a 4 seed and get paired with a beatable 5 (N Iowa and Wichita St) and a beatable 1 seed (Nova, Gonzaga, Virginia) then I think we could go deep

[arkansasrazorback]

I almost dread a 5/12 matchup more than the 8/9.

I'm sorry but this is crazy.  I would much rather play a 4 or 13 seed than a 1 seed in the second round.  The 12 seed will most likely be a team that barely sneaks in to the tourney.  Just because some 5 seeds have lost before doesn't mean it happens to all 4 five seeds every year.

[hogsanity]

Seed is not as important as match up. Hogs could be a 4 & draw a team with two good ball handlers and a couple good three pts shooters and be in trouble. Could be a 5 or 6 & draw a team with weak guards and shred them by 25.

[Marshfieldhog]

8/9 may not be ideal, however knock off a 1 seed and then everything sets up for you.

[opineonswine]

8/9 is absolute the WORST

[HOGINTENNESSEE]

8/9 is absolute the WORST

100% agree

[yraciv]

8/9 is absolute the WORST

Yeah throw in the fact that when you play the 1, the region is usually setup for them close to home.

[hogsanity]

8/9 is horrible. Avoid the 1seeds as long as possible especially this year when there is going to be a pretty sharp drop from the 1's to the 2's and 3's.

[HSVhogfan2]

Seed is not as important as match up. Hogs could be a 4 & draw a team with two good ball handlers and a couple good three pts shooters and be in trouble. Could be a 5 or 6 & draw a team with weak guards and shred them by 25.

AR just needs to draw refs that lets them scratch and claw on the outside without calling every foul. Even if they get beat up a little on the boards, it is in ARs advantage if the refs let them play.

[LL COOL HOG]

I'm sorry but this is crazy.  I would much rather play a 4 or 13 seed than a 1 seed in the second round.  The 12 seed will most likely be a team that barely sneaks in to the tourney.  Just because some 5 seeds have lost before doesn't mean it happens to all 4 five seeds every year.

It has happened 44 times since 1985.

You do not want the 5/12 or the 8/9 matchup

[arkansasrazorback]

It has happened 44 times since 1985.

You do not want the 5/12 or the 8/9 matchup

I'm sorry, but I would rather have the 5 seed than the 6-16. 

[Oklahawg]

It has happened 44 times since 1985.

You do not want the 5/12 or the 8/9 matchup

Six has been the seed I've focused on. You do not get a #1 seed until one round later. Of course, #3 gets the same track as the #6 but the easier teams. I can't see us getting a #3...

What I don't want is to be the weak #4 or weak #5 and draw the badass mid-major with something to prove. I prefer the Power 5 team that is incomplete or has an issue. In other words, I'd rather play OU than Northern Iowa (4-5 combo).

[Tusks]

I'm still pulling for a #3 seed.

It would help if Utah would fall apart and people wake up and stop putting OU on a pedestal.

[choppedporkextrasauce]

Realistically we are probably a 5 or 6 seed

You're not being realistic at all. You're just selling the Hogs short.

[TheRazorback500]

If we take care of business our last 2 games, win a couple games in the SEC tourney, maybe some teams ahead of us in the standings lose-then we could say we belong in the top 16 and get that four seed.

:razorback:

[hogsanity]

AR just needs to draw refs that lets them scratch and claw on the outside without calling every foul. Even if they get beat up a little on the boards, it is in ARs advantage if the refs let them play.

You mean the hogs need refs to let them play rough in some aspect of their defense? I've been told REPEATEDLY that is not how refs are supposd d to be.

[alohawg]

Seed is not as important as match up. Hogs could be a 4 & draw a team with two good ball handlers and a couple good three pts shooters and be in trouble. Could be a 5 or 6 & draw a team with weak guards and shred them by 25.

Good point.

[onebadrubi]

Six has been the seed I've focused on. You do not get a #1 seed until one round later. Of course, #3 gets the same track as the #6 but the easier teams. I can't see us getting a #3...

What I don't want is to be the weak #4 or weak #5 and draw the badass mid-major with something to prove. I prefer the Power 5 team that is incomplete or has an issue. In other words, I'd rather play OU than Northern Iowa (4-5 combo).

Give me northern Iowa.  Portis will posterize that white boy that is running that team.

[alohawg]

Give me northern Iowa.  Portis will posterize that white boy that is running that team.

You do know if someone made a similar comment but used the term black boy in the same vain it could be considered racist, right?

[HotlantaHog]

8/9 is absolute the WORST

8-9 obviously isn't the goal for Arkansas this year... but 8-9 is not that bad if the team is solid, playing well AND you get matched up against the weakest No. 1 seed. Almost every year, a questionable team gets promoted to a No. 1 seed and gets whipped by an 8 or 9 in the third (formerly second) round. And if you happen to win that game, you get the matchups the No. 1 seed would have gotten the rest of the way.

[HotlantaHog]

I agree that 3 or 4 is far preferable to 5 seed. For whatever reason, the 5-12 matchups have been deadly over the years ... 4-13 seems much more secure.

[hogsanity]

I agree that 3 or 4 is far preferable to 5 seed. For whatever reason, the 5-12 matchups have been deadly over the years ... 4-13 seems much more secure.

Most of your 12 seeds that pull upsets are teams that have a lot of experience at guard. They take care of the ball, know how to drive and dish, and can knock down open threes. That type of team will give the Hogs ( and many other teams ) trouble, regardless of seed.

[HognVA]

So you want us to lose out?

I want any seed outside of the 8/9 game. Worst seed in the tourney

Actually the 16th seed would be worse It is the of course the worst seed as a "favorite".

[secfan30]

4 seed would be nice.  It'd set us up for a sweet sixteen run

Exactly.

Plus traditionally we do not lose as a much higher seed

[blacksuit]

At the 5 seed you tend to get a solid at-large team as an opponent. You might pull a team that finished strong and is playing their best ball. The 13-14+ seed teams are often weaker auto bid teams.

Based on this site, the win percentages by seed clearly show a break point after the 4 seed. Historically the 4 seed is much safer than the 5. The 5, 6 and 7 seeds are pretty close in success rate:

3/14: 85.0%
4/13: 79.2%
5/12: 66.4%
6/11: 66.4%
7/10: 60.4%

[Breems]

I love 8/9. It's the only one I've ever seen us win.

[All Bleed Red]

At the 5 seed you tend to get a solid at-large team as an opponent. You might pull a team that finished strong and is playing their best ball. The 13-14+ seed teams are often weaker auto bid teams.

Based on this site, the win percentages by seed clearly show a break point after the 4 seed. Historically the 4 seed is much safer than the 5. The 5, 6 and 7 seeds are pretty close in success rate:

3/14: 85.0%
4/13: 79.2%
5/12: 66.4%
6/11: 66.4%
7/10: 60.4%

Good Find.  That does show a pretty clear division.  Keep winning and pull a #4 seed!

[All Bleed Red]

Would love the bracket as it sits today. 

Round 1 :  Toledo
Round 2 :  Wichita St./Valparaiso
Round 3 :  Virginia/Georgia/VCU

I like all those matchups!  Wish we could "lock it in."  Haha

GO HOGS!!   :razorback: :razorback:

[JayBell]

Beat SC, hold serve against LSU, win one game in the SEC Tournament and Arkansas definitely puts themselves in the argument for a 4 seed.  Like they always talk about with bracketology, it's as much about the games that you win as the games that other teams lose at this time of the year.  All it takes is for a few teams ranked higher than Arkansas to lose early in their own conference tournaments.

I just don't want Arkansas to be a 5-seed.  I feel like they'd almost be guaranteed to be one of the 5/12 upsets.  They happen every year now.

I think they have a better chance of stringing together a few good games by playing an 11 seed first and then a 5 or 12 seed.

[GuvHog]

I'm still pulling for a #3 seed.

It would help if Utah would fall apart and people wake up and stop putting OU on a pedestal.

IMHO if the Hogs beat South Carolina and LSU then make it to the finals of the SEC Tournament as the #2 seed, they really should get a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

[latrops]

You're not being realistic at all. You're just selling the Hogs short.

??  Seems that right now, based on RPI and AP ranking, we would be in that 5/6 seed range.  We can play our way to a 4 with a few more wins, or maybe to a 7 or worse with a poor finish.

[Thepigdoctor]

At the 5 seed you tend to get a solid at-large team as an opponent. You might pull a team that finished strong and is playing their best ball. The 13-14+ seed teams are often weaker auto bid teams.

Based on this site, the win percentages by seed clearly show a break point after the 4 seed. Historically the 4 seed is much safer than the 5. The 5, 6 and 7 seeds are pretty close in success rate:

3/14: 85.0%
4/13: 79.2%
5/12: 66.4%
6/11: 66.4%
7/10: 60.4%

Great post, spot on. I'd add that 11/12's also tend to be those AQ's that but for a weak conference, would deserve an at large look.

[opineonswine]

I love 8/9. It's the only one I've ever seen us win.

It's horrid.  Pray not either of those.

[hogsanity]

Would love the bracket as it sits today. 

Round 1 :  Toledo
Round 2 :  Wichita St./Valparaiso
Round 3 :  Virginia/Georgia/VCU

I like all those matchups!  Wish we could "lock it in."  Haha

GO HOGS!!   :razorback: :razorback:

Really? You really like the matchup with WSU with their guard play? And okay lets say they get past that, VA plays some of the toughest D in the country.

[RyeHogFan]

According to Lunardi's latest bracket, we would be in the South Bracket as the 5 seed playing SFA, then we'd play the winner of Utah/La Tech, and then we'd more than likely face Duke in the Sweet Sixteen.

[Paul]

Really? You really like the matchup with WSU with their guard play? And okay lets say they get past that, VA plays some of the toughest D in the country.

I agree with you.  don't like how we match up with those 2 at all

[Paul]

According to Lunardi's latest bracket, we would be in the South Bracket as the 5 seed playing SFA, then we'd play the winner of Utah/La Tech, and then we'd more than likely face Duke in the Sweet Sixteen.

I really like this draw

[hogsanity]

According to Lunardi's latest bracket, we would be in the South Bracket as the 5 seed playing SFA, then we'd play the winner of Utah/La Tech, and then we'd more than likely face Duke in the Sweet Sixteen.

A draw like that is MUCH better than being anywhere around WSU or VA

[popcornhog]

If we pull a 4 seed and get paired with a beatable 5 (N Iowa and Wichita St) and a beatable 1 seed (Nova, Gonzaga, Virginia) then I think we could go deep

UVA is by far the second best team in the country imo. You crazy, gurl.

Not saying we can't beat them, but that's not who I hope to play by any stretch.

And idk about our match-up with WSU. Ky and Beard would have to have flawless games.

[bigdaddyhawg]

That's the way I see it also. I think realistically we will be a 6 seed.

Depends on how strong we finish.

But I believe we're going to beat USC and LSU and do well in the SECT, losing to UK in the finals.

IMO that will give us a 4 or a 5.

[popcornhog]

Depends on how strong we finish.

But I believe we're going to beat USC and LSU and do well in the SECT, losing to UK in the finals.

IMO that will give us a 4 or a 5.

That would lock us at a 4 with a small tiny shot at a 3 depending who else loses between now and then and how closely we play UK in the SEC title game.