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Here's an analysis we can all get excited about

Started by tigerinhogtown, August 14, 2017, 07:09:44 pm

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MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on August 16, 2017, 08:29:35 pm

I mean he was just explaining what the numbers were actually showing.  If he came up with this method that actually predicted the hogs go 11-1 wouldn't he stick to it? I mean it's his website. He was basically explaining what's most likely to happen.


People are predicting arkansas to win 6 or 7 because that's probably what they will do. people aren't being "safe."  No one would truly give 2 craps if someone in the media predicted the hogs to win to 10 plus and then they didn't. That's how it goes.

Face it, most likely this is a 6 to 7 win team. At this point they have done nothing to prove other wise. I hope they exceed expectations and think they have a chance to but dude you are clinging to that argument of "people are just being safe." I mean whatever helps you sleep at night.



I'll disagree. I don't think that Arkansas wins just 6 or 7...that's the safe projection. We don't have to agree. I've seen these guys do this for years. They'd prefer having to eat crow and make excuses about a team that they projected to win less, winning more, than the other way around. That way they can all log in and claim it was "such a surprise to everybody". That way they maintain their credibility.

I know you have a biased opinion here and think that is a "correct" projection. We do have "fans" like that because they don't believe in the HC and his philosophy. But this is too strong of a team to just win 6 or 7. Bielema knows it is time to either win 8 in the regular season where we don't give away games, or win 9 and 10 with a bowl win. He knows the way that things lay out.
Go Hogs Go!

rhames

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on August 16, 2017, 08:38:46 pm
I'll disagree. I don't think that Arkansas wins just 6 or 7...that's the safe projection. We don't have to agree. I've seen these guys do this for years. They'd prefer having to eat crow and make excuses about a team that they projected to win less, winning more, than the other way around. That way they can all log in and claim it was "such a surprise to everybody". That way they maintain their credibility.

I know you have a biased opinion here and think that is a "correct" projection. We do have "fans" like that because they don't believe in the HC and his philosophy. But this is too strong of a team to just win 6 or 7. Bielema knows it is time to either win 8 in the regular season where we don't give away games, or win 9 and 10 with a bowl win. He knows the way that things lay out.



Oh my


I just said I believe they can win more.


Also I think it's pretty safe to say every one on here has a "bias opinion"

You're so right. Commentators and media people lose their jobs all the time for making wrong productions. So they have to be safe. They don't want to go out on a limb. Not worth it to pick the hogs to win more than 7 or 8 and get fired if they don't.


Oh wait. That never ever happens.




"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

 

12247

All these professional guessers must have wanted to be accountants.  They can take numbers and make them turn out to be anything you want them to be.  I don't think we could take BAMA'S players and go 11-1, much less our own players.  I would love to see us winning like that but its not in the cards in the SEC.  I will be surprised if, in the regular season, BAMA loses any, if Aubbie loses 2, if LSU loses 3 and if we win 8.  A huge step for me is if we can find a way to beat A&M and then end up higher in the West standings than they are at seasons end.

In any event, its fun to believe someone is willing to publish such inaccurate garbage and likely get paid to do so.  Just wish it were even close to true.

GoHogzzGo

I'm not a big fan of early season analytics. So much turn over in college football. More curious after week 5-6 or so when teams have had some tougher games under their belt with current roster.
Success isn't permanent and failure isn't fatal.

NuttinItUp

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on August 16, 2017, 07:36:49 pm
Look at the link that I gave you, the formula is there, although it is for the NFL, whose results one year to the next year may be more easily predictable because of a steadier team of players. It's a crap shoot really, but they give you the formulas that are used.

I saw the formula. That was what I was referencing in my question.

The formula uses points scored and points allowed. My question still remains how you can plug in points scored and points allowed when the season has not been played yet. (How do you predict with the formula?) The formula was meant as a way to look backwards, not forwards. That is my question.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on August 16, 2017, 08:49:27 pm


Oh my


I just said I believe they can win more.


Also I think it's pretty safe to say every one on here has a "bias opinion"

You're so right. Commentators and media people lose their jobs all the time for making wrong productions. So they have to be safe. They don't want to go out on a limb. Not worth it to pick the hogs to win more than 7 or 8 and get fired if they don't.


Oh wait. That never ever happens.


Excuse me, but what I thought you said, was pretty much exactly what I thought you said.

People are predicting arkansas to win 6 or 7 because that's probably what they will do. people aren't being "safe."

We will just have to disagree.
Go Hogs Go!

rhames

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on August 16, 2017, 08:57:27 pm
Excuse me, but what I thought you said, was pretty much exactly what I thought you said.

People are predicting arkansas to win 6 or 7 because that's probably what they will do. people aren't being "safe."

We will just have to disagree.


Yeah you didn't read my whole post or you just didn't bother to quote it all because it would go against what you're trying to infer


I said I hope and think they can exceed those expectations

QuoteFace it, most likely this is a 6 to 7 win team. At this point they have done nothing to prove other wise. I hope they exceed expectations and think they have a chance to but dude you are clinging to that argument of "people are just being safe." I mean whatever helps you sleep at night.   
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

Iwastherein1969

the writer of the OP's article must have been channeling this man.....   
The long Grey line will never fail our country.

Headhog32


Tejano Jawg

Quote from: EastexHawg on August 15, 2017, 01:36:23 pm
Does anyone have a picture of the hat from which they obviously drew the predictions?

Nothing arbitrary...they had their top analyst on working on it.
Between McAfee being obnoxious and Corso decomposing before our eyes I can't even watch GameDay anymore. —Torqued Pork

HogFoo

Quote from: Hogopolis on August 15, 2017, 01:43:34 pm
Hogfoo we agree on everything but one thing.  M. Williams is going to redshirt.    The top three backs are Whaley, David Williams and Chase.  M. Williams won't play unless there is an injury.   Also, TJ will be back by TCU.    Woo Pig!!!
it's all good brother.  I don't care who plays as long as we have that kind of season.  About M.Williams. man, I would have thought he would have redshirt, but he came in early last January  and he just shined. He looked great in spring practice so good that it made coaches think even if RWlll had came back he would have to fight for his starting position.  Which I don't know if they'll red shirt that kind of talent.  He's the big back we'll need on short yardage. He's as big as kid I walker was except better in my opinion.  The kid is what 6'3 235lbs+ and has speed and juke.  Anyways. Kid just too good to red shirt. I really thought Hayden would after Malik came in and did so well, but then Hayden looked like a star right out of the gate. So, it'll be interesting to see how it goes.  As for TJ Hammonds. Man I hope he comes back quickly and healthy.   That would just be icing on the cake.  Cuz I truly believe our offense behind a much improved OL will be something special. 

On another note. I heard on Bo' s show today the guys who had this formula. The main guy came in and explained his little theory.  It actually made sense.  Now he did say, turnovers, penalties, things like that along with injuries could totally change the outcome of the projection.  Because a lot of these games he had the hogs just winning by less than 3pts.  In fact Bo asked the guy what he really thought the Hogs record would be and he actually said he believed it'd be more like 8wins. 

But, I think the 11wins sounds good. :)
Basketball is back, baseball always, football was a dumpster fire once again..... but as the phoenix rose from the ashes, BMF Petrino has risen again!!! Lots to look forward to.  <br /><br />As the rain falls, I realize, that some where out there, some one, is wearing a mask while they shower............

GoHogs1091

Missouri won't be going 11-1.

Missouri has the potential to have a good Offense, but their Defense may not be as good as what will be required defensively to win the East.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on August 16, 2017, 09:02:15 pm

Yeah you didn't read my whole post or you just didn't bother to quote it all because it would go against what you're trying to infer


I said I hope and think they can exceed those expectations


My bad,, I guess I did miss that (wasn't intentional), but I still believe that most of the national media that projects outcomes in the pre-season take the safe route. As far as the Hogs go, not only do I think that they win more than 6 or 7 games, I think that at this point they have to win at least 8 and probably 9 for many fans to have faith that the program is progressing. More would be great, I can even see a path to 11 wins, but everything would have to fall into place just right for that to occur and things rarely fall into place in that manner.
Go Hogs Go!