This guy's got it right - could only be three SEC teams in the tourney

[swinesation]

http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2017/1/16/14283076/ncaa-tournament-2017-sec-bids-kentucky-florida-south-carolina

This guy is right on his main point - there is Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina, then everybody else. As I've said since the beginning of the season, this team is not real talented - they're a bubble team. Nothing I've seen has changed my mind about that, except I'll admit I didn't expect us to lose to Miss St at home.

I still support Mike for the future because his recruiting has improved dramatically, but this season is gonna be a roller coaster. I say enjoy the wins and get over the losses quickly. I don't even come here after the losses - it's too tiresome. We should beat LSU at home, then we're likely to lose two of our next three.

I think 22 wins is the best we're likely to do, and, as one guy said in another thread, we might not even get in the tourney with 23 wins. It ain't happening this season folks, we don't have enough elite players. But I still believe the future is bright!

[ShadowHawg]

Lunardi says 4 as of tonight with Arkansas being one of those 4.

[rzrbackramsfan]

Us winning 22 or 23 and not getting in would be a nightmare.  The sec is seriously the worst conference.  Sec teams get pretty high rated recruiting classes, probably the second best outside of the acc, but the teams always suck in out of conference and pick it up in conference play where it's a grinder that hardly any body really wins.

[Hog Solo]

12-6 in conference is not far fetched.  Miss st was a bit of a shocker but so was the positive wins on the road to both tamu and Tennessee.  Unlike you I can see us going on a tear down the stretch.

[rzrbackramsfan]

We just have to hope that the bottom tier teams will become more lethargic as they lose more and the better teams like Arkansas become more determined as the year goes along because if A&M, middle of the pack teams play like they did tonight every night, were in for a long season.

[rzrbackramsfan]

12-6 in conference is not far fetched.  Miss st was a bit of a shocker but so was the positive wins on the road to both tamu and Tennessee.  Unlike you I can see us going on a tear down the stretch.

ms. St. Lost to U.K. By 7 tonight.  Go check out ms. St.'s recruiting the past two years, it's insane. 

[incHOGnito]

12-6 in conference is not far fetched.  Miss st was a bit of a shocker but so was the positive wins on the road to both tamu and Tennessee.  Unlike you I can see us going on a tear down the stretch.

I feel like we haven't had that game where several guys are "on." 

We're Barford, Macon and Hannahs all to catch fire in the same game, we would
Look pretty unbeatable.

[ShadowHawg]

Us winning 22 or 23 and not getting in would be a nightmare.  The sec is seriously the worst conference.  Sec teams get pretty high rated recruiting classes, probably the second best outside of the acc, but the teams always suck in out of conference and pick it up in conference play where it's a grinder that hardly any body really wins.

The SEC is getting punished for putting a lot guys in the League. It makes the conference younger and most young teams take time to gel.

Selection committee is no longer getting the best teams in the tournament and ratings have dipped as a result. I liked it better when they factored the last 10 games as being important but these days this is discarded. Lots of teams start hot and fade late. Not to mention, it's much harder to win inside your conference than out simply because you are playing more road games against high D1 athletes. 

[TomasPistola]

I feel like we haven't had that game where several guys are "on." 

We're Barford, Macon and Hannahs all to catch fire in the same game, we would
Look pretty unbeatable.

I don't think our players are put in a position to make being "on" an easy thing.

[LR_Matt]

We just have to hope that the bottom tier teams will become more lethargic as they lose more and the better teams like Arkansas become more determined as the year goes along because if A&M, middle of the pack teams play like they did tonight every night, were in for a long season.

Do you realize we're 7th out of 14 in the conference???

[yraciv]

Do you realize we're 7th out of 14 in the conference???

After 6 games, 2 against easily the top 2 in conference.  This is a Top 5 SEC team.

[mckinneyhog5]

If they leave us out then screw them...I don't care what you think about the SEC but I don't see some of these weak ass conferences being better. We win 23 and finish 12-6/11-7 in conference with our road wins we damn well better make it in.

[rzrbackramsfan]

The SEC is getting punished for putting a lot guys in the League. It makes the conference younger and most young teams take time to gel.

Selection committee is no longer getting the best teams in the tournament and ratings have dipped as a result. I liked it better when they factored the last 10 games as being important but these days this is discarded. Lots of teams start hot and fade late. Not to mention, it's much harder to win inside your conference than out simply because you are playing more road games against high D1 athletes.

exactly.  Also Thats why I think when we're talking about the success of our basketball program, it should be in relation to the conference. 

[sickboy]

This year -- our fanbase  has the potential to do something no other fanbase has done before. And that's bitch about our team actually making the NCAA tournament. I think we just might. I think we're that loco enough.

[latrops]

Last year South Carolina missed the NCAAT in spite of a 24-8 record that included a win at aTm who was ranked in the top 10 at the time.  That may have been their only quality win.  They also faded down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4, including one and done in the SECT.

That's what we need to avoid.  Can't expect record alone to be enough...need to beat a good team or two and finish strong.

[King Kong]

At least four teams get in IMO. SEC teams RPI on average is up this season. Which is why A&M was 1-4 and still in the top 100 RPI. Much better than previous years.

As long as someone can just put together a lot of wins they should be good.

[nwahogfan1]

Swine.  I think your right on about this year.  We just don't have enough elite players but only on the inside.  I think our guards are above average and if they had come help we could get there this year.    I agree the recruiting is getting better but what has taken so long    On the 2017 recruits we still need more size.  Love Garford but he is not enough on the inside.  Currently our inside guys have the mentality of 3s with out the skills.  We need some big men with big man mentality to man the middle.  They can be 6'7 240 lbs but must be able to score/rebound/defend in the paint with a MAN's attitude.

I don't agree that Mike should get more time because I don't see him changing his coaching to the personal he has on campus, to the way the game is being played today or his recruitment of bigs which you have to have to play this game at the elite level.   But I do think he probable will get more time.   IMO he is just an average coach.  He seems like a nice guy who will probable never get us into trouble with the NCAA but also will never get us to elite status either except maybe every now and again.  The rest of the time it will be very average seasons of missing the NCAAT and saying ho hum.  Is this what 2+ million gets you in a College coach then we should just roll over and not complain but I think with our facilities and our resources we can do better. 

[Dirty]

This year -- our fanbase  has the potential to do something no other fanbase has done before. And that's bitch about our team actually making the NCAA tournament. I think we just might. I think we're that loco enough.

This

[Razorod]

Absolutely cannot lose again at home or to LSU (away) and Mizzou (away). Also, cannot be a one-and-done in the SEC tourney.

Be nice to take of two of these five (three would be fantastic)--Vandy, OkSt, Aub, SCe, FL. Must win at least one of them.

Really, no room for error given the weak state of the conference.

Hopefully, 23-8 + 1 in SEC tourney gets us in.

[Little Lady Back]

Absolutely cannot lose again at home or to LSU (away) and Mizzou (away). Also, cannot be a one-and-done in the SEC tourney.

Be nice to take of two of these five (three would be fantastic)--Vandy, OkSt, Aub, SCe, FL. Must win at least one of them.

Really, no room for error given the weak state of the conference.

Hopefully, 23-8 + 1 in SEC tourney gets us in.

This!

[The_Iceman]

ms. St. Lost to U.K. By 7 tonight.  Go check out ms. St.'s recruiting the past two years, it's insane.

Check it out, but don't compare it to ours. Yikes!

[The_Iceman]

This year -- our fanbase  has the potential to do something no other fanbase has done before. And that's bitch about our team actually making the NCAA tournament. I think we just might. I think we're that loco enough.

You will get no complaint from me. My standard is NCAA or Fired. Doesn't matter how we get it or what we do, just get in.

[hogsanity]

There is a good possibility that the game at SC is a play in game for the 2 teams. The weird thing is, the loss to MSU may not end up being so bad if they continue to play well, and the win at A&M may carry almost no weight if they continue to struggle.

12-6 in the league and a win at OSU ( not that osu is great, but a loss would be a bad loss ) and they are probably in. 11-7 in the league or 12-6 and a loss at osu and it gets dicey. They really only have 2 shots a what the committee sees as a "good" win and that is at SC and At FLA. IF they lose both of those they will have wins wins against top 50 rpi teams.

[HF#1]

This year -- our fanbase  has the potential to do something no other fanbase has done before. And that's bitch about our team actually making the NCAA tournament. I think we just might. I think we're that loco enough.

I won't say a cross word about Mike or the team if we make the tournament. No matter the seed.

[Hawg Red]

I think the 3 mentioned in the OP are near locks for the tournament assuming SC handles business. They'd probably be ranked close to the top 10 right now if Thornwell had kept his nose clean.

Looks like we're clinging onto a 4th bid right now. Obviously, we all know the Hogs will have to fight to get that bid. Last night was a big win because we're going to have to win a lot of road games to get in and hold serve at home. Small sample size, but we've shown we can win road games in a bad conference. Not holding my breath for wins in Gainesville or Columbia, SC, but everyone else is fair game and will be a need-to-win. We get to 13 conference wins if we win out at home and beat everyone but FL and SC on the road. There's still the OSU game as well, which will be huge against a solid RPI team from a stronger conference. We're probably off the bubble with 13 conference wins and 7 true road wins (not counting whatever happens at Stillwater). We really have to kick ass on the road in conference play the rest of the way.

[Hawg Red]

This year -- our fanbase  has the potential to do something no other fanbase has done before. And that's bitch about our team actually making the NCAA tournament. I think we just might. I think we're that loco enough.

When you say "fanbase," what you really mean is "a few whiners." I don't think that's a fair representation of our fans. A lot of fans are restless but will be happen and content if we make the NCAA tournament. The ones complaining after that will be the ones that have always complained. That's not unique to this fanbase.

[Atlhogfan1]

We aren't just competing with SEC teams for the NCAAT.  The bubble looks weak so far.  Teams from other power conferences are in our situation of 0 Top 50 wins and can run up a good record without having to beat too many actual good teams.

Our schedule is much more favorable than UGa's.  They have:
2 games with UK
@ SC
Florida
@Arkansas

Opportunities for them to get good wins but also could be looking to at least 5 more losses as well.


Still think we make the tournament this year because of the schedule running up our win total and how weak the field looks to be in terms of NCAAT resumes. 

[JayBell]

Mississippi State is joining the discussion of bubble teams from the SEC while A&M and Auburn are leaving it completely.  The NCAA may be replacing the RPI, but they haven't yet, and that's good for Arkansas.

I really don't understand the panic.  I think 21 regular season wins gets Arkansas in as long as they win a game in the SEC Tournament.  They just don't have any bad losses or bad wins dragging their RPI down.  The weak nonconference schedule was the main reason they missed out three years ago, not the lack of quality wins.  This year's nonconference schedule wasn't anything special, but it didn't have a lot of bottom-feeders.

[Atlhogfan1]

Mississippi State is joining the discussion of bubble teams from the SEC while A&M and Auburn are leaving it completely.  The NCAA may be replacing the RPI, but they haven't yet, and that's good for Arkansas.

I really don't understand the panic.  I think 21 regular season wins gets Arkansas in as long as they win a game in the SEC Tournament.  They just don't have any bad losses or bad wins dragging their RPI down.  The weak nonconference schedule was the main reason they missed out three years ago, not the lack of quality wins.  This year's nonconference schedule wasn't anything special, but it didn't have a lot of bottom-feeders.

That and the 25pt loss to 7-11 in the SEC Bama followed by the SECT loss to 5-13 in the SEC South Carolina. 

[JayBell]

If, and it's a big if, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State can take care of business, then two of them can get in.  The conference cannibalizes itself, but those three have taken care of business against the teams they're supposed to beat so far.

If any of them can go 11-7 or better in conference, that puts them over 20 wins.  They'll probably still need wins in the SEC Tournament, but they'll have that chance.  Even Ole Miss has a chance with 20+ wins since they have a decent RPI.

[Dominicanhog]

We aren't just competing with SEC teams for the NCAAT.  The bubble looks weak so far.  Teams from other power conferences are in our situation of 0 Top 50 wins and can run up a good record without having to beat too many actual good teams.

Our schedule is much more favorable than UGa's.  They have:
2 games with UK
@ SC
Florida
@Arkansas

Opportunities for them to get good wins but also could be looking to at least 5 more losses as well.


Still think we make the tournament this year because of the schedule running up our win total and how weak the field looks to be in terms of NCAAT resumes.

other conferences like the B1G, that have 11 teams in as of now, will start taking losses (they have to, they play each other)... an 18-11 team with 10 conference losses will not get in at our expense, if we have 23 wins.. projections are meaningless at this point.. so much basketball to play....

I think the chances of 5 SEC teams in is greater than 3 SEC teams in... we'll get at least 4

[JayBell]

That and the 25pt loss to 7-11 in the SEC Bama followed by the SECT loss to 5-13 in the SEC South Carolina.

Exactly.  Arkansas went into the final two weeks of the season only needing a win or two to clinch a spot.  They just had to not have back-to-back disastrous losses and they get in.

I think Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi State and Ole Miss could all be in a similar situation at the end of the season this year.  They could be hovering around 19-22 wins.  Win some games on a neutral court and the selection committee will take notice.

[Hawg Red]

other conferences like the B1G, that have 11 teams in as of now, will start taking losses (they have to, they play each other)... an 18-11 team with 10 conference losses will not get in at our expense, if we have 23 wins.. projections are meaningless at this point.. so much basketball to play....

I think the chances of 5 SEC teams in is greater than 3 SEC teams in... we'll get at least 4

The SEC has only gotten 3 teams in in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and a 24-win (11-7 in SEC) South Carolina did not get in last season. You're being a bit cocky.

[hogsanity]

If, and it's a big if, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State can take care of business, then two of them can get in.  The conference cannibalizes itself, but those three have taken care of business against the teams they're supposed to beat so far.

If any of them can go 11-7 or better in conference, that puts them over 20 wins.  They'll probably still need wins in the SEC Tournament, but they'll have that chance.  Even Ole Miss has a chance with 20+ wins since they have a decent RPI.

11-7 in the sec getting in would hinge alot on do they win their last ooc game at OSU, and do they go 1 and done in the sect. 11-7 in the sec means they are going to take a bad loss somewhere. The only decent games they have left ar at sc and at FLA. Assuming losses at both, getting to 7 losses still means losing 2 more, and with this schedule none of them are going to be good losses. The most likely would be at Vandy which is not horrible, but where would the 7th loss be?

[JayBell]

other conferences like the B1G, that have 11 teams in as of now, will start taking losses (they have to, they play each other)... an 18-11 team with 10 conference losses will not get in at our expense, if we have 23 wins.. projections are meaningless at this point.. so much basketball to play....

I think the chances of 5 SEC teams in is greater than 3 SEC teams in... we'll get at least 4

This is how I feel.  The SEC is still a bad basketball conference, but just like every other year it's a matter of whether or not any teams can separate themselves from the pack and solidify themselves behind the top 2-3 teams.

[Wisco Pig]

We aren't just competing with SEC teams for the NCAAT.  The bubble looks weak so far ... Still think we make the tournament this year because of the schedule running up our win total and how weak the field looks to be in terms of NCAAT resumes.

Yeah, we discussed this in a different thread yesterday.   Take a look at some of the teams just above Arkansas in the RPI; quite a few have weak resumes.  The Hogs still don't have a great margin for error, given their lack of quality wins, but lots of teams are in the same boat.   We tend to focus on our own conference (me included), but that's not the way it works.

When you say "fanbase," what you really mean is "a few whiners." I don't think that's a fair representation of our fans. A lot of fans are restless but will be happen and content if we make the NCAA tournament. The ones complaining after that will be the ones that have always complained. That's not unique to this fanbase.

Our fan base is not at all unique.  Fans of Alabama and Ohio State football are straight-up insane in their expectations.  Kentucky basketball fans are pathological.  Europeans are the same way about their favorite soccer teams.  Some Packers fans up here wanted Mike McCarthy fired earlier this season, even though Green Bay has gone to the playoffs eight consecutive years and won a Super Bowl during that stretch.   

[The_Iceman]

Exactly.  Arkansas went into the final two weeks of the season only needing a win or two to clinch a spot.  They just had to not have back-to-back disastrous losses and they get in.

That is sad to think about. Had the superior talented team, then flop the way they did.

Think about the momentum a NCAA tournament bid that season would have given this program. Could have made the 2015 tournament run even better with the experience gained.

[PonderinHog]

Remember a few years ago when The SEC only got three teams in?

Tennessee made it to the Sweet Sixteen and Kentucky and Florida made it to the Final Four.

I know all you basketball purists think SEC basketball sucks, but they put athletes on the court that most conferences just don't see regularly.

[JayBell]

The SEC has only gotten 3 teams in in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and a 24-win (11-7 in SEC) South Carolina did not get in last season. You're being a bit cocky.

South Carolina also lost their first game in the SEC Tournament to an 18-12 Georgia team and barely had a top-60 RPI.

The SEC's bubble teams are going to have a chance to make their bid in the SECT, just like every other year.  You win there and you solidify your resume.

[lynbug]

Last year South Carolina missed the NCAAT in spite of a 24-8 record that included a win at aTm who was ranked in the top 10 at the time.  That may have been their only quality win.  They also faded down and...
That's what we need to avoid.  Can't expect record alone to be enough...need to beat a good team or two and finish strong.

This is what we must do that we have not in the past--finish strong and.....if we lose very many more conf. games we'll have to do deep in the conf. tourney.  Personally, I think it's NIT or bust.

[Atlhogfan1]

That is sad to think about. Had the superior talented team, then flop the way they did.

Think about the momentum a NCAA tournament bid that season would have given this program. Could have made the 2015 tournament run even better with the experience gained.

Exactly.  Arkansas went into the final two weeks of the season only needing a win or two to clinch a spot.  They just had to not have back-to-back disastrous losses and they get in.

I think Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi State and Ole Miss could all be in a similar situation at the end of the season this year.  They could be hovering around 19-22 wins.  Win some games on a neutral court and the selection committee will take notice.

http://collegerpi.com/subs/14/T216.shtml

RPI was 55 according to this heading into Bama game.  Not great.  We were very much on the bubble. 

3 top 50 RPI wins:  Minnesota, UK and @UK
4 non conference opponents over 300 RPI

[JayBell]

11-7 in the sec getting in would hinge alot on do they win their last ooc game at OSU, and do they go 1 and done in the sect. 11-7 in the sec means they are going to take a bad loss somewhere. The only decent games they have left ar at sc and at FLA. Assuming losses at both, getting to 7 losses still means losing 2 more, and with this schedule none of them are going to be good losses. The most likely would be at Vandy which is not horrible, but where would the 7th loss be?

They've gotten a lot better, but you can still count on Arkansas to slip up a few times on the road.  They've beaten A&M and Tennessee now, but I'd expect at least a loss or two out of road games at Vandy, LSU and Auburn.

[DiamondHogFan]

I think UGA may be the swing game.  We already lost to Miss St and their RPI is climbing so I don't think that will be as bad a loss as it first appeared (it was bad though since it was at home).  We need to win all of the games we are favored in, and beat UGA.  If we are able to pull an upset over FL or SC that would just be icing. 

We look absolutely terrible at times during games, but somehow the guys keep fighting and can come back from down double digits.  We just need to be more consistent and a tourney birth is definitely still within reach.  We need the SEC to get at least 4 teams in, we need to beat UGA out of that 4th spot and hope that Miss St has a good year.

[Hawg Red]

South Carolina also lost their first game in the SEC Tournament to an 18-12 Georgia team and barely had a top-60 RPI.

The SEC's bubble teams are going to have a chance to make their bid in the SECT, just like every other year.  You win there and you solidify your resume.

When you have soft bubble teams like this, they do stuff like lose their first conference tournament game. Why should we be confident this year will be any different?

Again, 3 of the last 4 seasons the SEC has been a 3-bid league. It's just a weak league and there is no reason for anyone to feel confident in more than 3 teams getting in.

[Wisco Pig]

They've gotten a lot better, but you can still count on Arkansas to slip up a few times on the road.  They've beaten A&M and Tennessee now, but I'd expect at least a loss or two out of road games at Vandy, LSU and Auburn.

Small sample size, I know, but right now the road isn't the problem.  The Hogs are 2-1 on the road in SEC games and only 1-2 at home.

[JayBell]

That is sad to think about. Had the superior talented team, then flop the way they did.

Think about the momentum a NCAA tournament bid that season would have given this program. Could have made the 2015 tournament run even better with the experience gained.

Their failure to make the NCAA Tournament that season is still a more egregious failure to me than the 16-16 season last year.

http://collegerpi.com/subs/14/T216.shtml

RPI was 55 according to this heading into Bama game.  Not great.  We were very much on the bubble. 

3 top 50 RPI wins:  Minnesota, UK and @UK
4 non conference opponents over 300 RPI

Right.  Being a bubble team fundamentally means you need to make your case in the conference tournament.  Win a game or two and you're probably in.  Lose and you're out.  It's especially true in the SEC with it lacking in marquee games.

[JayBell]

When you have soft bubble teams like this, they do stuff like lose their first conference tournament game. Why should we be confident this year will be any different?

Again, 3 of the last 4 seasons the SEC has been a 3-bid league. It's just a weak league and there is no reason for anyone to feel confident in more than 3 teams getting in.

You can disagree, but don't act like there is "no reason for anyone to feel confident in more than 3 teams getting in."  Mississippi State and Georgia are getting hot at the right time.  Arkansas and Ole Miss did not have terrible nonconference schedules.

Those teams have competed well enough against Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida.  They've also beaten the teams they're supposed to.  That's enough "reason" to think they at least one of them can keep it up through the season.

[Dominicanhog]

Remember a few years ago when The SEC only got three teams in?

Tennessee made it to the Sweet Sixteen and Kentucky and Florida made it to the Final Four.

I know all you basketball purists think SEC basketball sucks, but they put athletes on the court that most conferences just don't see regularly.

Thought Tennessee made the E8 after being in the play in game.. won the same number of Tourney games as the F4 participants.. could be wrong and didn't feel like looking it up..

[Atlhogfan1]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/8

UPCOMING GAMES TIME
120 Jan. 21 LSU 8:30 PM
73 Jan. 24 @ Vanderbilt 8:30 PM
57 Jan. 28 @ Oklahoma State 4:00 PM
68 Feb. 1 Alabama 7:00 PM
258 Feb. 4 @ Missouri 6:00 PM
73 Feb. 7 Vanderbilt 8:30 PM
120 Feb. 11 @ LSU 8:30 PM
25 Feb. 15 @ South Carolina 6:30 PM
47 Feb. 18 Ole Miss 6:00 PM
96 Feb. 22 Texas A&M 8:30 PM
78 Feb. 25 @ Auburn 8:30 PM
3 Mar. 1 @ Florida 7:00 PM
39 Mar. 4 Georgia 2:00 PM

3 opportunities for Top 50 wins.

3 opportunities for bad losses.

[PonderinHog]

Thought Tennessee made the E8 after being in the play in game.. won the same number of Tourney games as the F4 participants.. could be wrong and didn't feel like looking it up..

Could be.  Me neither.     SCRUT