What happened to this team

[niels_boar]

They won by a whopping 6-4 or 60%, and a couple of missed tip ins against us in the last second, or it would have been 5-5 or 50%=A-V-E-R-A-G-E

The SEC is actually 10 - 6 against the Big 12 this season.  N-o-t C-l-o-s-e.

[Cargill A. BullHog]

3 things happened.

The SEC is stronger than its been since the early 2000's

Selfish play by a select few has caused stagnation on offense

Referees are against us

[BallHog1]

They won by a whopping 6-4 or 60%, and a couple of missed tip ins against us in the last second, or it would have been 5-5 or 50%=A-V-E-R-A-G-E

the moral loss argument.

[razorpimp]

Gafford was playing well at the start of the season. Like I said before. He found out how physical things are in the SEC. The Aggies are finally starting to play like the team they were supposed to be now that all of the pieces are in place. In the second half they came out hot and was knocking down their shots.

Sometimes its just that simple. Its not always coaching. That doesn't fit the mob agenda here though. So smite away simpletons.

No I disagree it is coaching because Mike made zero adjustments at halftime, A&M did....ballgame!  And those shots were very open, so a college player should be able to knock them down.

Why didn't Mike have a game plan against A&M using their two big men at the same time?  That loss was definitely on Mike's shoulders

[niels_boar]

Some of what happened was we entered conference play.  Different level of intensity from opponents.  Certainly better scouting and preparation for us.  Comparable athletes in many instances just varying degrees of basketball skill and depth.  What we try and do is no surprise in this conference.  Opponents understand how to defend and how to attack us.  They know to get in the officials' ears and perpetuate our reputation as foulers resulting in some anticipation calls. 

Some of it is the s o s with Mike and not having rotations figured out, roles not being filled well yet and the team not playing well together.  We've gone into every SEC season with this issue.  Sometimes it takes longer to figure it all out.  They figured it out a half of a game before disaster last season.  Still a few games away from getting that deep into this season. 


The SEC is certainly better than it has been as it doesn't have multiple awful teams.  The conference has had 3-4 bottomfeeders a season where they weren't really competitive.  AU, Miss St and Mizzou have been in the group and have all pulled themselves way up.  LSU was there last season and are obviously turning it around quickly.  UGa is its normal middling selves.  SC is back to middling.  Ole Miss and Vandy aren't awful.  Not what we have seen in bottom level teams in past seasons. 

If you look at kenpom, 1/2 the SEC is from 58 UGa to 87 Vandy.  1/2 the B1G is below Vandy.  1/3 of the Pac 12 is below Vandy.  Then in the SEC you have 5 more from 28 UK to 50 Hogs.  This is why the conference feels so tough this season and better - parity among mediocre to above average teams without the awful at the bottom and without a UF and UK with F4/NC caliber teams at the top.  Not saying some SEC team can't go on an NCAAT run.

Auburn is #10 in Pomeroy and UT #9.  UT beat Purdue.  UF beat #5 Cincy on a neutral court when the Gators were in a tailspin.  UF also led Duke for about 38 minutes.  I'm skeptical that Purdue is all that. They are undefeated in the Big 10, but Ohio State is 10-1 and lost four nonconference games, including a 27-point loss to the Zags.  Every conference is at best a collection of mediocre to above average teams if that is how you want to describe the SEC.

The sequential rankings also exaggerate the differences between teams.  If you look at the raw Pomeroy scores, a 10-point difference exists between 1-10, and quite frankly I find it hard to believe that, say, Cincy is much, if any, better than Auburn or UT.  The next 10-point difference comes between 11 - 64.  That implies, if accurate, that there is about as much a difference between #1 and #3 seeds as #3 seeds and the rest of the at-large field, including the bubble.  It's all a matter of who plays their best ball in March.   

[Atlhogfan1]

Auburn is #10 in Pomeroy and UT #9.  UT beat Purdue.  UF beat #5 Cincy on a neutral court when the Gators were in a tailspin.  UF also led Duke for about 38 minutes.  I'm skeptical that Purdue is all that. They are undefeated in the Big 10, but Ohio State is 10-1 and lost four nonconference games, including a 27-point loss to the Zags.  Every conference is at best a collection of mediocre to above average teams if that is how you want to describe the SEC.

The sequential rankings also exaggerate the differences between teams.  If you look at the raw Pomeroy scores, a 10-point difference exists between 1-10, and quite frankly I find it hard to believe that, say, Cincy is much, if any, better than Auburn or UT.  The next 10-point difference comes between 11 - 64.  That implies, if accurate, that there is about as much a difference between #1 and #3 seeds as #3 seeds and the rest of the at-large field, including the bubble.  It's all a matter of who plays their best ball in March.   

I was being very positive about the SEC's depth compared to the other conferences.  Every conference isn't the SEC this season.  The B1G and Pac 12 certainly not on that level of depth.

[Kevin]

jealousy.

gafford was all the talk at the pk80.

I think that bothered some guys (seniors).

This team has not been the same since, chemistry wise.

[razorpimp]

jealousy.

gafford was all the talk at the pk80.

I think that bothered some guys (seniors).

This team has not been the same since, chemistry wise.

If that's the case...is it the coach's fault?

[niels_boar]

No I disagree it is coaching because Mike made zero adjustments at halftime, A&M did....ballgame!  And those shots were very open, so a college player should be able to knock them down.

Why didn't Mike have a game plan against A&M using their two big men at the same time?  That loss was definitely on Mike's shoulders

There is a much bigger random element in a college basketball game than fans want to believe.  They don't unfold as a deterministic function of gameplans.  We won at College Station last year by a deuce when Manny Watkins went three of three from the arc.  Macon went 1 of 5.  Do you care to make the argument that Anderson outcoached Kennedy last year because Kennedy focused their defensive efforts on Kingsley, Macon, Barford, and Hannahs?  Starks hasn't been any better from the arc than Watkins.  On some nights Watkins would have gone 0-3 on the same looks, and we lose convincingly.  If he still has an above average night of 2 of 3 on open looks, we might have lost.  Sometimes you get the bear.  Sometimes the bear gets you.

Davis, Williams, and Morelos have played 29, 26, and 24 minutes per game, respectively.  Do you seriously believe that CMA wasn't aware of any combination of those three that A&M could throw out there?

[Kevin]

If that's the case...is it the coach's fault?

imo, it is the coaches job to navigate the players through.

[HeyHogs]

MA has not found the proper rotation and continues to make poor decisions, especially on the road.

[niels_boar]

The biggest difference between conference and nonconference is pace.  In regulation we have only played 2 of 9 games at a 70+ possession pace in the SEC.  I'm still puzzled why the SEC has slowed so much conference wide.  It wasn't this way last year.  Over half our SEC games were 70+ possessions last year.

Gafford hasn't been as productive in SEC play.  This team being elite would involve Gafford looking one-and-done good.  Walking the ball up the court takes away an advantage that he has over other SEC big men.  We could do a better job of getting him involved, but he isn't ready to dominate when he is pushed out of the lane.  He seems to play with more energy on defense when he is making shots, too.  I won't be surprised if his play doesn't start to improve, and it wouldn't take much improvement from anywhere to change the balance of power.

Our results aren't as bad as they are made out to be either.  Really, 6-3 among this collection of teams was the reasonable ceiling for Arkansas at this point under the best of circumstances.  Auburn is better than expected. A&M at full strength is one of the more talented teams in the conference.  Wins at Auburn, A&M, and UF were always highly improbable.  We got robbed at MSU, where we played well.  The refs decided that game. We should be 5-4. 

That leaves the LSU debacle as the main disappointment to me.  It's hard to say that any result in the SEC is a shock this season.  Hence, losing to LSU was certainly not a disgrace or even a huge surprise, but the incredibly low level of our play is still hard to explain.  Every matchup model that I try to build that predicts how efficient our offense should be against a certain type of team tells me to throw out the LSU game as an outlier.

[hogtied]

I'm not sure what some people saw at A&M...this is what I saw. And it kinda is a reflection of the last 5 games...
We played pretty good 'D' for a while. That wears a team out when you only have two reliable scorers. So we go extended periods without points. That's a problem.
Beard is not a reliable point guard. He starts thinking he needs to score and shoots too much. You can see when he decides it is his turn to shoot!
Thomas is the same. Thinks he needs to score. Problem is, he can't shoot a jumper.
Gafford is just overmatched against experienced 'bigs'. He get walked off of his spot ridiculously easy. He is a great finisher from about 2 feet from the rim but is very limited in just about every other facet of the game.
Sooo...as the game went on Barford tired out. And Macon was having to play the point. And it was up to those two to do ALL of the scoring. So, it did look like a lot of one on one was going on 'cause it was. But would you rather share the ball with Thomas and beard and Bailey and... or have your shooters do all they can to WILL us to a win.
It didn't help that A&M is a really good team that got all of their players back in time for a home game against us, and they went wild in the first five minutes of the second half.

[Busta_Nutt]

Simple - they aren't as good as we initially thought and, per usual, MA can't figure out how to play 5 players who can score at any given moment. They have two true scorers and a 5'10 unnamed guard who has a career fg% of 38% and continues to start. On top of this, they have a shallow bench and would rather foul than move their feet and play defense.

[The_Iceman]

jealousy.

gafford was all the talk at the pk80.

I think that bothered some guys (seniors).

This team has not been the same since, chemistry wise.

Excellent observation. Macon and Barford came back to be the stars of the team and be in position to launch a pro career. Then this freshman comes in and steals their spotlight. Their selfishness takes over and Mediocre Mike is incompetent to handle the situation.

[99toLife]

Excellent observation. Macon and Barford came back to be the stars of the team and be in position to launch a pro career. Then this freshman comes in and steals their spotlight. Their selfishness takes over and Mediocre Mike is incompetent to handle the situation.

Wow, That's a little brutal, yet a good opinion that is hard to dispute.

[Hawg Red]

I watched LSU absolutely dismantle us in Bud Walton, wasn't close coaching wise or matchup wise. I just don't see much to believe we are going to go on the road on a Saturday and beat them.

For this team to win just almost any game we need to score at least 80 points...we can't/won't play defense or rebound. Our best chance is to shoot lights out and put up 80-100 points.

That game at BWA will be completely unrelated to whatever happens in Baton Rouge unless both teams play the exact same way (highly unlikely). The Hogs may indeed to lose to LSU Saturday, but it's pointless to try to use the game LSU won at BWA as an example for why the Hogs shouldn't win. That isn't how basketball works. Arkansas has been throttled by Auburn and Florida -- two of the league's best teams -- on the road. They were throttled in the second half against the second or third most talented roster in the league Tuesday against A&M. They let Mississippi State off the hook in Starkville and beat Georgia in Athens. There's no reason for confidence in either direction at this point. The Hogs haven't played well enough on the road and LSU isn't good enough to assume they will replicate what happened in Fayetteville.

[niels_boar]

Excellent observation. Macon and Barford came back to be the stars of the team and be in position to launch a pro career. Then this freshman comes in and steals their spotlight. Their selfishness takes over and Mediocre Mike is incompetent to handle the situation.

That's just a complete load of crap and a completely unfounded aspersion on Macon and Barford.

Gafford FGAs this season:
6
7
11

PK 80
6
4
4

Post PK 80
4
9
8
6
7
7

SEC
8
11
7
5
11
12
11
3
7
4

For the season his usage% is 23%.  It's 22% in conference against better frontlines than we saw in nonconference.  It clearly went up after the PK80. Beard, Bailey, and Thomas have seen bigger drops in usage in SEC play.  I guess they got jealous of them, too.  Ridiculous.

[code red]

I know we have discussed this in partial threads but what do you truly think happened to this team?

Don't say CMA stinks, etc because the team was winning, playing well, etc and now we have this...

I say they started believing the hype that they were/are better than they really are combined with Barford/Macon trying to carry the load to up their draft status.  I think Mike lost the team by not keeping them grounded

Coach Anderson coaches style.  Coach Anderson does not know how to coach up half court sets.  This is a fact.  Coaches that know Anderson will beat him every time...unless someone shoots lights out.  Anderson's teams cannot win ugly.

[daprospecta]

Coach Anderson coaches style.  Coach Anderson does not know how to coach up half court sets.  This is a fact.  Coaches that know Anderson will beat him every time...unless someone shoots lights out.  Anderson's teams cannot win ugly.

Your last line lets me know you posting out of emotion and not logic. Georgia is just one of our ugly wins this season. Stop trying to push an agenda and get behind our team. Sure, we have issues but this team is fighting hard and can still make the tourney. Anything can happen in the tourney.

[Letsroll1200]

The writing is on the wall. Mike is not as tough as Nolan. It's a tough decision but he has to bench Beard and put Macon back in the starting line up.

[Letsroll1200]

I watched LSU absolutely dismantle us in Bud Walton, wasn't close coaching wise or matchup wise. I just don't see much to believe we are going to go on the road on a Saturday and beat them.

For this team to win just almost any game we need to score at least 80 points...we can't/won't play defense or rebound. Our best chance is to shoot lights out and put up 80-100 points.

Keep Watching. It's payback time. All the celebrating on our home floor. We need this win.

[onebadrubi]

jealousy.

gafford was all the talk at the pk80.

I think that bothered some guys (seniors).

This team has not been the same since, chemistry wise.

You're on to something here

[razorpimp]

Your last line lets me know you posting out of emotion and not logic. Georgia is just one of our ugly wins this season. Stop trying to push an agenda and get behind our team. Sure, we have issues but this team is fighting hard and can still make the tourney. Anything can happen in the tourney.

Some of team are fighting hard some of the time....that's the problem...only two that fight he entire game are Gafford and Hall.  Barford takes off long parts of the game whether he is resting or taking it easy it doesn't matter, he needs to play hard or ask for a sub.

[phadedhawg]

No matter our talent, whether we a little or a lot, SEC coaches know what to do when they play Arkansas. We often look great in the pre conference season, we can even beat some decent teams.  However when SEC play starts, the coaches just pull out their notes from last year and frustrate us all night long. 

[3of5-2]

the moral loss argument.

Failing to see the obvious argument.

[Rbill]

Something is off about this team. We look incompetent in a way that is unusual even for this system. I truly believe it is a chemistry issue first and foremost and that we will have addition by subtraction. I won't go so far as to say that they don't like each other or that people are jealous or selfish, but I do believe chemistry is important and we will see addition by subtraction.

[Hoggish1]

I know we have discussed this in partial threads but what do you truly think happened to this team?

Don't say CMA stinks, etc because the team was winning, playing well, etc and now we have this...

I say they started believing the hype that they were/are better than they really are combined with Barford/Macon trying to carry the load to up their draft status.  I think Mike lost the team by not keeping them grounded

I say the SEC started defending what Anderson was going in the first 13 games and he can't adjust.  I couldn't see the TAMU game, so I don't know if the same strategy applied, but look at how OK State boxed our bigs in with four men and collapsed on whomever was in the post when we got the ball in there.

If the three isn't falling, there is no chance to win the rest of our game on the road and we will lose a good share of our home games, too.

[Hoggish1]

It is several things. I think mainly the grind every single game is what is wearing them down. That, and a lack of inside out play.

I don't doubt what you say but the "grind" isn't there for our opponents?

[Hoggish1]

Hate to say it but I think this team is done.  It was fun to watch in 2017 though.

Couldn't agree more.  The team played most of its games at home before the SEC season began, excluding the Western tournament.  They are running into teams that are being coached well in the SEC part of their schedule and they aren't able to compete.

This is on Anderson and his coaches.  We were once something special but no more...

[Hoggish1]

Hate to say it but I think this team is done.  It was fun to watch in 2017 though.

The SEC seems to be happening to everyone but Auburn lately.  Who had Bama losing in Tuscaloosa to Mizzou a few days after shutting down OU or USC losing at home to MSU after winning at UF?  UF won at Rupp and destroyed Baylor and then lost their second in three games by double digits at Athens where Arkansas just won a game.  UK is 6-3 but would be no better than 5-4 and maybe 4-5 if LaChance were not 0-4 at the FT line in the last minute against them and Vandy doesn't foul with 2 seconds left and a lead.  UF would probably have joined the four-loss club if they hadn't played A&M with their second-string backcourt.

It's one thing to lose a competitive game, but I have not been seeing that out of us when we lose, except for the MSU loss in game two but that was AT HOME. 

You are right, anybody can beat anybody else, but where is the grit and toughness?