Stewart Mandel is awfully impressed with TCU

[Biggus Piggus]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/how-tcu-will-stun-the-big-12-and-shake-up-the-playoff-in-2016-081716

Fine, they win every game but ours.

[razorbackkid]

I reckon we probably should go ahead and show up and play anyway.  Just never know what might happen.  :razorback:

[theFlyingHog]

That was a lucid, intelligent article. In any other conference I would say that prediction is a bit of a stretch but those little 12 guys know how to shoot themselves in the foot. Maybe that Ebola guy could talk to Mandel and get a few pointers on his trade.

[Boarmonger]

I've always found Mandel to be very fair and knowledgeable where CFB is concerned. He's pretty balanced on the whole.  That doesn't mean that he doesn't get caught up in prognostication and make some whoppers occasionally.

[Seebs]

If we cannot stop the pass (see Texas Tech last season) it will be a long day against TCU. I have to believe that the pressure from our D-Line will dictate the game and cause The Thrill into some back footed ducks and we shove it down their throat.

Really looking forward to that game.

[Pigsknuckles]

"The bottom line," said Patterson, "is we're not very good right now. Either side of the ball." Translated---"Please don't throw me in the briar patch".

[rzrbackramsfan]

Man,  that article has me less confident in this game.  They're good folks.

[bphi11ips]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/how-tcu-will-stun-the-big-12-and-shake-up-the-playoff-in-2016-081716

Fine, they win every game but ours.

Have you been persuaded?

The closer this game gets, the more interesting it becomes.  It certainly isn't a good matchup - for either team.  Throw in that both teams are rebuilding their offensive areas of strength that create the bad matchups, and you have a game almost impossible to predict. 

Gary Patterson can look past South Dakota State and prepare early for the Hogs, but Bret Bielema can do the same with Louisiana Tech and TCU. 

In a situation like this, a lot of folks will go with the home team.  TCU is ranked and will be favored by the home field 3 plus a couple more.  They'll be pumped to beat an SEC West team that once beat them 22 straight years.  Now the roles are reversed.

I can't get by the mismatch in favor of Arkansas. Forget Texas Tech.  Never should have happened.  Arkansas has reloaded at running back.  The o-line will employ more zone schemes that will neutralize the early gap problems of last year.  The young backs won't have to read blitz on power dives.  If Arkansas can move the chains for 35 to 38 minutes and beat TCU in the red zone on both sides of the ball, they should be able to hold off the Horned Frogs in the fourth quarter.  Much in the same way they used to do with SWC teams.

[FraggleHog]

Have you been persuaded?

The closer this game gets, the more interesting it becomes.  It certainly isn't a good matchup - for either team.  Throw in that both teams are rebuilding their offensive areas of strength that create the bad matchups, and you have a game almost impossible to predict. 

Gary Patterson can look past South Dakota State and prepare early for the Hogs, but Bret Bielema can do the with Louisiana Tech and TCU. 

In a situation like this, a lot of folks will go with the home team.  TCU is ranked and will be favored by the home field 3 plus a couple more.  They'll be pumped to beat an SEC West team that once beat them 22 straight years.  Now the roles are reversed.

I can't get by the mismatch in favor of Arkansas. Forget Texas Tech.  Never should have happened.  Arkansas has reloaded at running back.  The o-line will employ more zone schemes that will neutralize the early gap problems of last year.  The young backs won't have to read blitz on power dives.  If Arkansas can move the chains for 35 to 38 minutes and beat TCU in the red zone on both sides of the ball, they should be able to hold off the Horned Frogs in the fourth quarter.  Much in the same way they used to do with SWC teams.

I agree... this is a very intriguing game... TCU should be favored by a TD or 10 pts.  A few advantages Arkansas has though:

Kenny Trill - We've seen and played him before. Although he's a different QB than he was at aTm, he'll be starting in a new offense. This early in the season, he may go back to some of his tendencies he had at Arkansas. We have some game tape on him and Robb Smith should be able to game plan for him.

TCU Offense - Like Auburn, this offense depends greatly on precise timing. This can be troublesome for early games and sometimes it takes a few games for these types of offenses to get rolling. They lost their two impact players in Boykin and Doctson so that is another factor to take into consideration.

TCU Run Defense - Typically highly ranked, although they play in a league where the run isn't a premium. They don't play an offense like Arkansas' that often so our Big O-line and big backs should be able to wear their front 7 down.

Our D-backs should be improved YOY under the tutelage of Paul Rhoads. Rhoads came from the Big XII where his DB's played offenses like this throughout the season. He should be able to get them prepared for what they will see.

Just a few thoughts...

[daBoar]

If we cannot stop the pass (see Texas Tech last season) it will be a long day against TCU. I have to believe that the pressure from our D-Line will dictate the game and cause The Thrill into some back footed ducks and we shove it down their throat.

I believe this game comes down to the progression of the Hog's defense since last year.  If we're better across the three D levels and really deeper, we'll win. If this is about 11 bad defenders who are just a year older, we'll lose.

[FraggleHog]

I believe this game comes down to the progression of the Hog's defense since last year.  If we're better across the three D levels and really deeper, we'll win. If this is about 11 bad defenders who are just a year older, we'll lose.

I really think the Paul Rhoads factor will be big here. He coached in the Big XII and has seen this offense a ton. He will have the DB's and Safeties in the techniques/ position that they need to be in to have success. Technique and position can beat skill/ athleticism.

[hogcard1964]

I agree... this is a very intriguing game... TCU should be favored by a TD or 10 pts.  A few advantages Arkansas has though:

Kenny Trill - We've seen and played him before. Although he's a different QB than he was at aTm, he'll be starting in a new offense. This early in the season, he may go back to some of his tendencies he had at Arkansas. We have some game tape on him and Robb Smith should be able to game plan for him.

TCU Offense - Like Auburn, this offense depends greatly on precise timing. This can be troublesome for early games and sometimes it takes a few games for these types of offenses to get rolling. They lost their two impact players in Boykin and Doctson so that is another factor to take into consideration.

TCU Run Defense - Typically highly ranked, although they play in a league where the run isn't a premium. They don't play an offense like Arkansas' that often so our Big O-line and big backs should be able to wear their front 7 down.

Our D-backs should be improved YOY under the tutelage of Paul Rhoads. Rhoads came from the Big XII where his DB's played offenses like this throughout the season. He should be able to get them prepared for what they will see.

Just a few thoughts...

TCU won't be that favored in this game.  This will end up being around a -2 or -3 for them.  Basically even.

[North hog]

I think our running game will be all they can handle.  I also think AA will be better passer than they expect...

[onebadrubi]

Something I just thought might draw a similar comparison.  OU vs TCU last year, OU RB's vs TCU D and TCU RB's vs OU front 7.  OU was able to run all over TCU ( I think OU lost their QB that game) and OU was able to hold down TCU's run game for the most part. 

We should be able to run the ball on TCU and hopefully we can stop their run with the front 4 and a MLB or at least 1 LB'er. 

[FraggleHog]

Something I just thought might draw a similar comparison.  OU vs TCU last year, OU RB's vs TCU D and TCU RB's vs OU front 7.  OU was able to run all over TCU ( I think OU lost their QB that game) and OU was able to hold down TCU's run game for the most part. 

We should be able to run the ball on TCU and hopefully we can stop their run with the front 4 and a MLB or at least 1 LB'er.

There's something to be said here... You hear it all the time, the difference between the SEC and other leagues are the O Line and D Line. I feel like our D Line will have a monster game and be in their backfield all day. This could be Sosa's coming out party...

[jackflash]

they lost their QB also so that makes us even in my book. will depend can are defense play well

[AugustaHog]

We don't want a shoot-out in this one.  They are a big-play offense and have a propensity for landing big shots.  If our D is getting stops and allowing us to control the ball and clock, we win.  Only way this scenario fails is the Toledo exception.  We rolled all over them and moved b/t the 20s all day, only to sputter deep.  Converting in the redzone will be key and choking the clock away.  I think we have the horses to do it.  If this game was a month later, I'd be much more confident.  We just need to see how this team comes together early.

[Boss Hog in the Arkansas]

Forget what the ranking services and prognosticators say. Yes TCU has a great pass defense, but they're HORRIBLE against the run, and stats back that up. Our runningbacks will have their coming out party that night!

[onebadrubi]

We don't want a shoot-out in this one.  They are a big-play offense and have a propensity for landing big shots.  If our D is getting stops and allowing us to control the ball and clock, we win.  Only way this scenario fails is the Toledo exception.  We rolled all over them and moved b/t the 20s all day, only to sputter deep.  Converting in the redzone will be key and choking the clock away.  I think we have the horses to do it.  If this game was a month later, I'd be much more confident.  We just need to see how this team comes together early.

Honest question, what is our record with Bielema in shootouts?  What qualifies for a shootout, both teams over 35-38 points?  Off a quick memory, I think we have done pretty well in those games?

[code red]

The key will be pressure.  I look for a similar game plan as Ole Miss 2014.

[bphi11ips]

I think our running game will be all they can handle.  I also think AA will be better passer than they expect...

Agree on both.

[bphi11ips]

The key will be pressure.  I look for a similar game plan as Ole Miss 2014.

I'm not sure that pressure is as important as keeping receivers in front of us and holding in the red zone.  TCU relies on dink and dunk and two step drops.  Plus, we don't have exotic blitz packages.  Boykin ran TCU out of trouble when he was pressured on deep drops.  Not sure Hill can do that.   TCU is likely to use quick drops, slants, bubble screens, etc.  They'll move the chains and probably throw for 300 to 400 yards.  But the Hogs should score more points.     

[FraggleHog]

Forget what the ranking services and prognosticators say. Yes TCU has a great pass defense, but they're HORRIBLE against the run, and stats back that up. Our runningbacks will have their coming out party that night!

I agree with this with the exception of the Texas Tech game. I believe they had one of the worst running defenses in all of div 1 football. So once again, I do agree that our RB's should have their coming our party so long as the game plan focuses on exploiting their weak run D.

[AugustaHog]

Honest question, what is our record with Bielema in shootouts?  What qualifies for a shootout, both teams over 35-38 points?  Off a quick memory, I think we have done pretty well in those games?

I'm talking about a game where we are in a position to be trading points every possession.  BA was unconscious later in the year when we faced Auburn and Ole Miss.  His margin for error was ZERO and he delivered.  Same thing went for Miss. St. and we lost that one.  Our D has to be better than it was.  I don't think we can count on Austin to live in that realm consistently.  Heck I'm not sure that we've ever had a QB with the kind of run BA went on to end last season.  Thank God for that hot streak because we don't beat Auburn or Ole Miss if not.

[onebadrubi]

I'm talking about a game where we are in a position to be trading points every possession.  BA was unconscious later in the year when we faced Auburn and Ole Miss.  His margin for error was ZERO and he delivered.  Same thing went for Miss. St. and we lost that one.  Our D has to be better than it was.  I don't think we can count on Austin to live in that realm consistently.  Heck I'm not sure that we've ever had a QB with the kind of run BA went on to end last season.  Thank God for that hot streak because we don't beat Auburn or Ole Miss if not.

While you can research my previous post now since Coach B got here, I have always taken up for BA.  But that wasn't all him last year.  Collins was a RB to be game planned for, no one saw the wr doing what they did, and no one though HH wasn't going to drop a single pass.  What I am saying is that people around BA stepped up too.  You know, no one ever criticized BA for making a 10 yard pass to your slowest receiver down field when it's fourth and 25. 

I know what you meant by a shootout, I am honestly curious to what Coach B's record is in shootouts.  I think a lot of people willing to accept that record would be shocked, I have a hunch, but no record, that he is better than anyone would give him credit for there. What if I threw out a number like 75% for coach B winning shootouts?

Just looked it up,

As a head coach he is 12-6 when both teams score over 30 points.  (He had a few more wins if you bump it down to 29 or 28, by a few I think it might have been 5-6).  At Arkansas he is 2-3.  The reason I chose 30 is because there were a lot of games in the 31-34 point range for the losing team (Bielema's or the opponent for that matter). 

[bphi11ips]

While you can research my previous post now since Coach B got here, I have always taken up for BA.  But that wasn't all him last year.  Collins was a RB to be game planned for, no one saw the wr doing what they did, and no one though HH wasn't going to drop a single pass.  What I am saying is that people around BA stepped up too.  You know, no one ever criticized BA for making a 10 yard pass to your slowest receiver down field when it's fourth and 25. 

I know what you meant by a shootout, I am honestly curious to what Coach B's record is in shootouts.  I think a lot of people willing to accept that record would be shocked, I have a hunch, but no record, that he is better than anyone would give him credit for there. What if I threw out a number like 75% for coach B winning shootouts?

Just looked it up,

As a head coach he is 12-6 when both teams score over 30 points.  (He had a few more wins if you bump it down to 29 or 28, by a few I think it might have been 5-6).  At Arkansas he is 2-3.  The reason I chose 30 is because there were a lot of games in the 31-34 point range for the losing team (Bielema's or the opponent for that matter). 

Good point and research.

TCU was number 80 in rushing yards allowed in a passing league.  Arkansas was number 116 in passing yards allowed in a rushing league.  Arkansas relies on the run.  TCU relies on the pass.  Both defenses return a majority of their starters.

The last team with the ball may win.

[AugustaHog]

Good point and research.

TCU was number 80 in rushing yards allowed in a passing league.  Arkansas was number 116 in passing yards allowed in a rushing league.  Arkansas relies on the run.  TCU relies on the pass.  Both defenses return a majority of their starters.

The last team with the ball may win.

There is zero doubt about what each team will try to do to the other.  They will bomb away and we're going to try to run them smooth over.  Their OL may have trouble running on our front, so I think we'll have an advantage in the fact that we should be able to run/pass and keep them somewhat honest.  If Rhoads has those DBs ready, we'll be in good shape.

[theFlyingHog]

I just hope we don't think we need to throw it a lot because they'll be looking for the run. That's what last year's disastrous start kinda felt like. Just run the ball and let it open the pass

[FraggleHog]

I just hope we don't think we need to throw it a lot because they'll be looking for the run. That's what last year's disastrous start kinda felt like. Just run the ball and let it open the pass

Yep. This was the death of Arkansas in the Texas Tech game

[Großer Kriegschwein]

I reckon we probably should go ahead and show up and play anyway.  Just never know what might happen.  :razorback:

Yep.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Good point and research.

TCU was number 80 in rushing yards allowed in a passing league.  Arkansas was number 116 in passing yards allowed in a rushing league.  Arkansas relies on the run.  TCU relies on the pass.  Both defenses return a majority of their starters.

The last team with the ball may win.

If we perform like a rookie crew or turn the ball over 2-3 times, it may come down to who has the ball last. Under usual circumstances (meaning a usual Patterson/TCU coached team) I would say that this would be a tight game. But I don't think that is going to be the case. Yeah they have a QB with a good arm and a reputation to go along with that in A&M transfer Kenny Hill (66.7% compl percentage, 331 yards p/gm, 23 TD's and only 8 INT's the last time he played), but they aren't gong to have much of a running game to offset the passing game especially given the fact that they lose almost the entire starting O-Line from last year with 26 of their 33 career starts found in one player, RT Noteboom (who is projected to move to LG this year).

Their best defensive players are at DE and their LB's should be improved this year with another year of experience though they were pretty average or less, last year. The Secondary wasn't dominating by any means but were good enough to generate 1 PBU in every 10.3 passing attempts last season. But they lose half of their starting Secondary this season.

If we play as we should I think we begin to pull away halfway through the 3rd qtr. However, allow them to hang around because of our mistakes or failing to step on their necks and put them away when we have opportunities and they will be very capable of making a game of it.

[trashcan maN]

Texas Tech had a top 3 or 4 offense in the country, if they weren't the best overall. We're not likely to see that kind of firepower and efficiency out of TCU this year.

[hamstring]

I suspect we will run early, often, and efficiently. This one will be a 14 point Hog win. I just Don't see their defense holding up, and we will control the clock. :razorback:

[CFB_Fanatic]

Texas Tech had a top 3 or 4 offense in the country, if they weren't the best overall. We're not likely to see that kind of firepower and efficiency out of TCU this year.

I agree. Yet, history has shown time and time and time again that Arkansas struggles with spread offenses and with undersized, quick defenses--both of which are TCU strong points. It could go one of two possible ways: Our Texas Tech game in 2014 or our Texas Tech game 2015. The game wont be close in either direction. I think whoever wins will win convincingly. I wont be placing bets on this game for sure.

[Arkansas Fan]

We'll shut down TCU's running game and force Kenny Hill to beat us by himself.

Patterson knows defense, he will have his boys ready to play against our offense. In the end, I do think our physicality will win in the end. Expect heavy doses of Walker/Williams/Whaley.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

They may be good but right now I just can't see how anyone could say they're a playoff caliber team.

Kenny Hill got his ass kicked after the first month of the season in 14 and they lost 4/5 of the OL, their top backs, and top WRs.

[theFlyingHog]

Just need to go in there and hit em in the freaking mouth early. Be nasty. Whip their asses for the 1st quarter and they'll fold like a WalMart tent in an April shower. We all saw their bowl game. They just quit.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I suspect we will run early, often, and efficiently. This one will be a 14 point Hog win. I just Don't see their defense holding up, and we will control the clock. :razorback:

Only if the passing game is effective.

[DeshaHog]

Just need to go in there and hit em in the freaking mouth early. Be nasty. Whip their asses for the 1st quarter and they'll fold like a WalMart tent in an April shower. We all saw their bowl game. They just quit.

Didn't they come back from down 31-0

[theFlyingHog]

Didn't they come back from down 31-0

Is it Desh-uh or De-shay?

[DeshaHog]

duh-Shay! Like the county in SE Ark  :razorback:

[theFlyingHog]

duh-Shay! Like the county in SE Ark  :razorback:

Well, welcome.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

duh-Shay! Like the county in SE Ark  :razorback:

I'm originally from down the hill from you.

[hamstring]

Only if the passing game is effective.

Based only on the limited reports from practice and the scrimmage. I think the play action game will be adequate to take some pressure of the run game, maybe not as prolific as last year but adequate enough.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Only if the passing game is effective.

That will be true for any P-5 game that we play this year.