Bill Connelly's Arkansas preview

[Bacon_Bitz]

Always the best preseason team preview.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/8/16/12472918/arkansas-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster

"Eight programs have finished in the S&P+ top 15 in each of the last two years. But while Ohio State, Alabama, and Michigan State have combined for only nine losses in this span, and Baylor, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Stanford have averaged a 20-7 record, Arkansas is 15-11."

"Summary: Bielema's tenure has been defined by slow starts and dominant finishes. The offense peaked in 2015 just as the defense regressed. Can the Hogs get the timing right this year, or will a rebuilt run game slow them down?"

[Bacon_Bitz]

"A team with Arkansas' 2015 offense and 2014 defense would have had an S&P+ rating of plus-28.1; that would have ranked second in the country last year."

[Bacon_Bitz]

Basically comes to the same conclusion as Hogville:

"There's a big season on the table here, but it will require the rebuilt run game to find its groove (and a potentially strong passing game to carry weight until then), and it will require the defense to not be absolutely awful against good pass offenses.

With just a little bit of variance in quality, Arkansas could be either 5-0 or 3-2 when Alabama comes to town and anywhere between 8-1 and 3-6 when LSU visits."

Declares we have the worst pair of safeties in the conference, though.  I hope that's not true.

[hawg IQ]

Basically comes to the same conclusion as Hogville:

"There's a big season on the table here, but it will require the rebuilt run game to find its groove (and a potentially strong passing game to carry weight until then), and it will require the defense to not be absolutely awful against good pass offenses.

With just a little bit of variance in quality, Arkansas could be either 5-0 or 3-2 when Alabama comes to town and anywhere between 8-1 and 3-6 when LSU visits."

Declares we have the worst pair of safeties in the conference, though.  I hope that's not true.

I tend to agree with the safety situation. Don't know why that is true, but 9 times out of ten, we lose because of a slip or misread by safeties in the big games. All you have to do is go back to A&M and Bama games of last year.
As far as run game goes, I think better than last year with RW 3 and Whaley, whom I think will be sec freshman rb of the year in 16'.
A Allen will become an improved version of big brother Brandon.

But back to safeties, we could win a shootout with a good team if we can get a stop now and then. Outside of safeties , defense should be better than last year.
  On offense, if the run game become dangerous, then A Allen will have more time to pass. a lot of ifs right now, that may be resolved by Alabama game, however TCU will be the early test.

[Biggus Piggus]

Well, if you are measuring by last year's performance, Arkansas's safeties are bad.

That does not say how good they are today.

[Biggus Piggus]

http://www.wholehogsports.com/news/2016/aug/16/safeties-aim-to-be-last-line-of-defense/

[JaketheSnake]

I tend to agree with the safety situation. Don't know why that is true, but 9 times out of ten, we lose because of a slip or misread by safeties in the big games. All you have to do is go back to A&M and Bama games of last year.

That seems a very short sighted excuse.  There a lot more going on that could have stopped big plays besides that.  Lack of a decent/consistent pass rush is just as much to blame, but Safety and CB are positions that get a lot of the blame for more than they should.

[hawginbigd1]

http://www.wholehogsports.com/news/2016/aug/16/safeties-aim-to-be-last-line-of-defense/

Its good to know they are aware that they were not very good last year. Its also good to know that they along with their coach are confident they will be much better this year. I hope they are correct!

[hawginbigd1]

That seems a very short sighted excuse.  There a lot more going on that could have stopped big plays besides that.  Lack of a decent/consistent pass rush is just as much to blame, but Safety and CB are positions that get a lot of the blame for more than they should.

Meh disagree, CB's get blamed way more often than they should be especially on deep balls when it is actually the safety(s) that are not in the right place. And again until about the Bama game last year, our scheme did not try to rush the passer unless it was 3rd and medium to long. The early downs the DL was playing gap control even on drop backs trying to limit running lanes for the athletic QB's we were playing. Played a lot more aggressively from there on, one of the reasons Kelly torched us like he did with his legs, but we also got most of our sacks as a team from that point forward, funny how that works.

[lutherheggs]

Safeties do not have to be all-SEC if Razorbacks' front 4 could pressure the QB consistently. It could not do it game in, game out last year. Did so in 3 or 4 games. Did not do much of it vs Ole Miss, Texas AM, Bama, Auburn, and Miss St.

[Bacons Rebellion]

Well, if you are measuring by last year's performance, Arkansas's safeties are bad.

That does not say how good they are today.

"The brings up Roy Smalley up for the Cubs with runners in scoring position. Smalley is really overdue."
"Jack, Smalley has been overdue since 1953."

[Bacons Rebellion]

I agree with Connelly on the TCU game. We need to get the September monkey off our back with the two games in Texas.

[Pig in the Pokey]

Basically comes to the same conclusion as Hogville:

"There's a big season on the table here, but it will require the rebuilt run game to find its groove (and a potentially strong passing game to carry weight until then), and it will require the defense to not be absolutely awful against good pass offenses.

With just a little bit of variance in quality, Arkansas could be either 5-0 or 3-2 when Alabama comes to town and anywhere between 8-1 and 3-6 when LSU visits."

Declares we have the worst pair of safeties in the conference, though.  I hope that's not true.

ouch. There are a LOT of badasses in the league back there, though. Most teams in the SEC, that is their strength this year- at safety.

[HogBreath]

We could be 8-1 when LSU comes to town?

Then we'll be 9-1 when they leave since we always kick their asses.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Safeties do not have to be all-SEC if Razorbacks' front 4 could pressure the QB consistently. It could not do it game in, game out last year. Did so in 3 or 4 games. Did not do much of it vs Ole Miss, Texas AM, Bama, Auburn, and Miss St.

I suspect that other than the elite defensive teams, the vast majority can't consistently pressure the QB with only the front 4.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

We could be 8-1 when LSU comes to town?

Then we'll be 9-1 when they leave since we always kick their asses.

Here's hoping once again they don't field a QB or competent passing game.  If they finally do, then all bets off.

[Rayzback]

Here's hoping once again they don't field a QB or competent passing game.  If they finally do, then all bets off.

Let's hope not! I recently rewatched the last game and almost felt sorry for Fournette (almost).  He earned every yard. I'm hoping for a threepeat. They have to travel up here the week after being roughed up by Bama and hopefully we are playing lights out in Nov again.

[Boardon Hamsay]

I thought Bill Connelly was a Chevy dealership in Yell County.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

I tend to agree with the safety situation. Don't know why that is true, but 9 times out of ten, we lose because of a slip or misread by safeties in the big games. All you have to do is go back to A&M and Bama games of last year.
As far as run game goes, I think better than last year with RW 3 and Whaley, whom I think will be sec freshman rb of the year in 16'.
A Allen will become an improved version of big brother Brandon.

But back to safeties, we could win a shootout with a good team if we can get a stop now and then. Outside of safeties , defense should be better than last year.
  On offense, if the run game become dangerous, then A Allen will have more time to pass. a lot of ifs right now, that may be resolved by Alabama game, however TCU will be the early test.

Not asking for much there, are you?
BA only had the 2nd highest QBR in the entire FBS.

[lutherheggs]

I suspect that other than the elite defensive teams, the vast majority can't consistently pressure the QB with only the front 4.

Oh, so you mean 5 of the 8 teams we play in conference this year.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Oh, so you mean 5 of the 8 teams we play in conference this year.

Yes, we play in an elite conference against elite defensive teams.

[razorbackkid]

By game two, Arkansas's "Bermuda Triangle" of 2014 will be in full affect.  Our safties will be picking off wounded ducks and our defensive backs will be terrorizing would be receivers.

The front end will be making the back end better.  And this year we can rotate the tires without fear of losing grip on the necks of our opponents.

It is going to be a fun season to watch.

:razorback:

[hawg IQ]

Not asking for much there, are you?
BA only had the 2nd highest QBR in the entire FBS.

To begin with, I don't know how I got my post so jacked up ?

I stand by that ! I do believe Austin will be better than Brandon, we'll see !?
But, if  I'm right, gonna be a good year offensively anyway.

   

[AugustaHog]

This was one of the better previews that I've seen.  Not that it was overly favorable to our outcomes, just that it got the facts pretty close to right.  He's right that experience isn't always a good thing.  Returning nearly all of a really bad defense is a little bit scary.  I do think an extra year will see some improvement.  That combined with Coach Rhoads should have us looking better.  The key for us on offense will be establishing a ground game.  It looks like we are seeing some positive signs so far in camp.  Austin will be able to work the PA game off the run if it is working.  If not, he will be a sitting duck.  Defensively, we need a total philosophy change from last season.  Our approach was poor from the jump.  With the players we have returning, we know what that sit back and wait approach will get you.  I like the different looks for the spread and hope this will remedy our issues on stopping a mobile QB.  There is without a doubt a wide range of win totals we can achieve.  We haven't had things break right for most of CBB's tenure (save the Henry Heave), so hopefully this will be a year of great breaks.  8-4 is my pick, but hoping for 9.

[hawg IQ]

This was one of the better previews that I've seen.  Not that it was overly favorable to our outcomes, just that it got the facts pretty close to right.  He's right that experience isn't always a good thing.  Returning nearly all of a really bad defense is a little bit scary.  I do think an extra year will see some improvement.  That combined with Coach Rhoads should have us looking better.  The key for us on offense will be establishing a ground game.  It looks like we are seeing some positive signs so far in camp.  Austin will be able to work the PA game off the run if it is working.  If not, he will be a sitting duck.  Defensively, we need a total philosophy change from last season.  Our approach was poor from the jump.  With the players we have returning, we know what that sit back and wait approach will get you.  I like the different looks for the spread and hope this will remedy our issues on stopping a mobile QB.  There is without a doubt a wide range of win totals we can achieve.  We haven't had things break right for most of CBB's tenure (save the Henry Heave), so hopefully this will be a year of great breaks.  8-4 is my pick, but hoping for 9.

Hey remember our defense at season's end two years ago !? makes you wonder what went wrong there.

I think BB is sick and tired of the "slow beginnings".

WE have to remember A Collins was all we had for the most part last year. I think RW 3 will do well along with D Whaley.
8-4 most of us would take, I think we got a shot at something better however.

[AugustaHog]

Hey remember our defense at season's end two years ago !? makes you wonder what went wrong there.

I think BB is sick and tired of the "slow beginnings".

WE have to remember A Collins was all we had for the most part last year. I think RW 3 will do well along with D Whaley.
8-4 most of us would take, I think we got a shot at something better however.

Our D from 2014, most particularly the back half of that year, was predicated on the "Bermuda Triangle" and all of those guys left.  I just want a full season of peak performances.  Like you, I'm tired of looking like dogs in Sept. and early Oct.  I do think that we have the pieces to form a new Bermuda Triangle with Wise, Ledbetter and Dre.  Robb Smith has to coach better than he did in 2015 as well though.  He's a good coach, but he didn't get it done last year.  The slow death style of defense, which I believe was supposed to be bend but don't break, was painful to watch.  We avoided a ton of over the top plays, only to get killed with long underneath plays.  There is no reason that this defense shouldn't be better in every aspect.  It HAS to be.

[DeltaBoy]

Good Read Woo Pig!

[popcornhog]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/8/16/12472918/arkansas-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster

So for the second straight year, the Razorbacks had to settle for knowing they were very good, without the record to prove it.

. . .

Arkansas' identity is premised around bruising running backs and a meaty offensive line; if we assume a Bielema team will have quality options in these two areas, then everything else could fall into place. Arkansas will be starting a new quarterback, too, but returns its top four wide receivers and a big-play tight end. And the defense has all of the experience it didn't have a year ago -- six of the top seven tacklers on the line, every linebacker, and eight of the top nine defensive backs return.

. . .

5. If the run works, the pass will work
I shouldn't understate the importance of the quarterback change, but I think the passing game should be fine if the run game is doing its part.

Veteran Austin Allen (Brandon's brother) has been around for a while and has by most accounts had an excellent offseason. And he basically has two No. 1 receivers returning: Keon Hatcher was Brandon's security blanket before suffering a foot injury last year, and Drew Morgan exploded in Hatcher's absence. They're both back, and the next two wideouts on the list (Dominique Reed and Jared Cornelius) combined for 928 receiving yards at a whopping 11.2 yards per target in 2015.

Plus, while the prolific Hunter Henry is gone, that just means more opportunities for Jeremy Sprinkle, who emerged as a major target over the second half of the season; after catching 13 passes over the first eight games, he caught 14 for 167 in the last five games. And there are quite a few talented young tight ends on the roster to back Sprinkle up.

[popcornhog]

We could be 8-1 when LSU comes to town?

Then we'll be 9-1 when they leave since we always kick their asses.

9-1 OR 4-6 or anywhere in between according to the article.

[Atlhogfan1]

This timing thing he discusses is why I keep repeating we are early in this program build. It is especially difficult for Arkansas to build defense and it will take time. 

"If there's a massive breakthrough coming, it probably won't happen in 2016."

Weak safeties playing Smith's coverages is a bad mix.

[Biggus Piggus]

This timing thing he discusses is why I keep repeating we are early in this program build. It is especially difficult for Arkansas to build defense and it will take time. 

"If there's a massive breakthrough coming, it probably won't happen in 2016."

Weak safeties playing Smith's coverages is a bad mix.

He does not know anything about the current ability of Arkansas's safeties. Just extrapolating from last season. I see Paul Rhoads making a big difference with this group.

[Atlhogfan1]

He does not know anything about the current ability of Arkansas's safeties. Just extrapolating from last season. I see Paul Rhoads making a big difference with this group.

That is my hope too.  And hoping Rhoads experience in the Big 12 vs those offenses will help as well.  He should at least know what won't work. 

[Bacon_Bitz]

That is my hope too.  And hoping Rhoads experience in the Big 12 vs those offenses will help as well.  He should at least know what won't work.

My hope as well.  But a lot is riding on Liddell and Ramirez, and Coley too I suppose if he finally has that break out year.  I don't even know who the fourth safety on the two-deep is right now.  Reid Miller?  Nate Dalton? 

[AugustaHog]

Paul Rhoads addition will be one of the keys to the season.  Good or bad.  If he gets those guys playing even solidly, our D will be light years better.  Liddell showed promise a couple years ago and Santos has the chance to be a real good safety for us.  There's not a ton of depth, but I think we can be solid if we are in the right place.  If they aren't improved from last season, we'll continue to see issues with our pass defense and the occasional big play sneaking out the back end in the run game.

[Atlhogfan1]

Paul Rhoads addition will be one of the keys to the season.  Good or bad.  If he gets those guys playing even solidly, our D will be light years better.  Liddell showed promise a couple years ago and Santos has the chance to be a real good safety for us.  There's not a ton of depth, but I think we can be solid if we are in the right place.  If they aren't improved from last season, we'll continue to see issues with our pass defense and the occasional big play sneaking out the back end in the run game.

The break on the pass to end the AU game is what we need to see much more of.  Close the amount "soft" space we gave last season and take some pass coverage pressure off the MLB.