Main things I wonder about, re: Razorback football

[swineology]

TCU was best last year against opponents with the worst passers. Nobody they played was a power running, play-action team.

TCU's key defensive statistical rankings vs. all FBS teams:

3. Third down conversion % defense
11. Fumbles recovered
23. Pass efficiency defense
25. Red zone defense
27. Yards allowed per completion
35. Sacks
54. Tackles for losses
64. Scoring defense
73. Turnovers gained
80. Rushing defense
84. Net punting
85. First downs allowed
107. Interceptions

Their key offensive statistical rankings:

3. Fumbles lost
7. Scoring offense
8. Passing offense
24. Completion %, rushing offense
27. Yards per completion, sacks allowed
32. Third down conversion %
40. Tackled for losses
51. Turnovers lost
92. Red zone offense
104. Interceptions

Interesting that TCU could finish 11-2 when not ranking well on many statistical measures.

TCU doesn't play in the SEC West.
Doubt they can stop our run game if the OL shows up

[MuskogeeHogFan]

TCU was able to stand up to the abuse of a fully Bielema Big 10 team back when TCU was still Mountain West I believe and that was a talented wiscy team. This TCU team IMO won't near the talent that one did, or if it does, it lacks a lot of the experience. Granted, our team might struggle vs that wiscy team as well.

I believe that barring some amazing recruiting by Patterson, our talent top to bottom beats their talent come 2016. However, this is a TCU team that is consistently one of the better teams in the country. LSU with one of their best teams only beat TCU at a neutral site by 10 points.

I think we win, but if you have visions of 2014 vs Tech, that is not the style or mentality of the TCU program.

No, but this is a TCU program that lost a lot from last year.

Lost their big playmaker Boykin who was responsible for 65.7% of their offensive yards (passing and rushing) per game. Also gone is Aaron Green who accounted for another 17% of their offense per game (rushing and receiving). So they lost about 82.5% of their offensive production between two players. Yes, I know the receivers played a part in the passing game as well and the good news for them is that they only lose about 59% of their receiving yards.

But to make matters worse, they lose 6 offensive linemen that account for 116 career starts (77.9% of all) and 189 games of experience (61.0% of all) over the last 3 seasons while returning 10 O-Linemen that between them share 33 career starts and 121 games of experience.

They lose a lot on the D-line (62% of all starts) but they return the majority of their Tackles, TFL, Sacks and PBU's.

They bring back all of their LB's, but they are small, not anywhere close to SEC size, but they are quick and fast.

And they return a lot of their Secondary in terms of experience and production despite losing half of their starters.

Bottom line is "who makes who" come out and be forced to play their brand of football? Take the fight to them by plowing ahead with the run game between the tackles (where you always attack a faster/quicker defense) and taking advantage of play action to complete passes for YAC and we will have this game in hand by middle of the 3rd quarter. Don't do this and we will find ourselves in a close game in the 4th quarter.

I think we win this game and if we do what we should be able to do, we win by 14 or more. Screw up and it is anyones guess how this turns out.

[Dominicanhog]

Take the fight to them by plowing ahead with the run game between the tackles (where you always attack a faster/quicker defense) and taking advantage of play action to complete passes for YAC

Exactly .. limit possessions, their young on O and will probably make mistakes.. make them pay with long, time consuming drives.. show up like Toledo and likely suffer the same result....AA will need to hit some 3rd throws as well, and Enos like to mix it up on 1st down, but I expect to try and establish a physicality early.

[DeshaHog]

Whole lotta fail in this post

Please tell me about all of my fail in that post.  I simply stated that there are a few good reasons to potentially fathom a loss on September 10th.  Sorry I didn't predict a blow out on our way to 10 wins like everyone else.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Please tell me about all of my fail in that post.  I simply stated that there are a few good reasons to potentially fathom a loss on September 10th.  Sorry I didn't predict a blow out on our way to 10 wins like everyone else.

I like our chances, but Your post certainly wasn't a fail.

[DeshaHog]

I like our chances, but Your post certainly wasn't a fail.

I like them too, and I will be at that game with my family screaming my head off.  There are just so many unknowns in the second game of the season.  It is important to be keep a level head, but the unknowns are what make it so exciting to be a football fan.

I just hope Coach B has the boys ready to come punch them in the mouth because I believe Patterson will have his crew ready, even if they did lose tons of experience. 

[PorkSoda]

I like them too, and I will be at that game with my family screaming my head off.  There are just so many unknowns in the second game of the season.  It is important to be keep a level head, but the unknowns are what make it so exciting to be a football fan.

I just hope Coach B has the boys ready to come punch them in the mouth because I believe Patterson will have his crew ready, even if they did lose tons of experience. 

no doubt, but I think we are going to win every game until we don't.  just the way I am. 

my mouth has been watering since I found out they were on the schedule.  I'm sure they are ranked for a reason, but to me, that just means they have a target on their back. with it being and away game, its a chance for the team to take a big step forward and prove that they can play well on the road.

[DeshaHog]

no doubt, but I think we are going to win every game until we don't.  just the way I am. 

my mouth has been watering since I found out they were on the schedule.  I'm sure they are ranked for a reason, but to me, that just means they have a target on their back.

I guess being a hog fan my whole life has made me a little bit jaded, but I respect whatcha got going for ya.  I guess the 1-0 mantra has some meaning here.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

No, but this is a TCU program that lost a lot from last year.

Lost their big playmaker Boykin who was responsible for 65.7% of their offensive yards (passing and rushing) per game. Also gone is Aaron Green who accounted for another 17% of their offense per game (rushing and receiving). So they lost about 82.5% of their offensive production between two players. Yes, I know the receivers played a part in the passing game as well and the good news for them is that they only lose about 59% of their receiving yards.

But to make matters worse, they lose 6 offensive linemen that account for 116 career starts (77.9% of all) and 189 games of experience (61.0% of all) over the last 3 seasons while returning 10 O-Linemen that between them share 33 career starts and 121 games of experience.

They lose a lot on the D-line (62% of all starts) but they return the majority of their Tackles, TFL, Sacks and PBU's.

They bring back all of their LB's, but they are small, not anywhere close to SEC size, but they are quick and fast.

And they return a lot of their Secondary in terms of experience and production despite losing half of their starters.

Bottom line is "who makes who" come out and be forced to play their brand of football? Take the fight to them by plowing ahead with the run game between the tackles (where you always attack a faster/quicker defense) and taking advantage of play action to complete passes for YAC and we will have this game in hand by middle of the 3rd quarter. Don't do this and we will find ourselves in a close game in the 4th quarter.

I think we win this game and if we do what we should be able to do, we win by 14 or more. Screw up and it is anyones guess how this turns out.

If you read this, you can see that this could be a defensive struggle, depending upon whether we execute offensively or not. Other than that, I think we stand a good chance of doing well against TCU.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I like them too, and I will be at that game with my family screaming my head off.  There are just so many unknowns in the second game of the season.  It is important to be keep a level head, but the unknowns are what make it so exciting to be a football fan.

I just hope Coach B has the boys ready to come punch them in the mouth because I believe Patterson will have his crew ready, even if they did lose tons of experience. 

I'm actually more concerned about Patterson than TCU's roster.  Patterson is elite.

[Mulberry Squeezins]

Please tell me about all of my fail in that post.  I simply stated that there are a few good reasons to potentially fathom a loss on September 10th.  Sorry I didn't predict a blow out on our way to 10 wins like everyone else.

First of all, when you throw down some smack don't get you panties all wrinkled when someone bites back.

Seriously?  You can't even "fathom" some sort of scenario where we don't win this game?


Goodness, the kool-aid is flowing on this board and in this thread.

We have plenty of questions regarding the OL, LBs, and secondary.  I believe AA will get it done just fine, but who knows how long it will take him to get up to game speed?  Combine all of this with our recent history of slow starts and this is a scary game.  Especially considering the competition.

As long as Bielema is here, the OL will be solid.  I stated that the day he got here and I've not seen anything thus far to suggest anything different.  I assume inexperience is the basis for your concern with the OL, which is fine.  But you obviously use a different criteria for the secondary and LB's because we have the entire nucleus returning?  Your being all over the place sorta inspired my original reply.

Arkansas is no different than anyone else in college football.  Each team has to deal with players leaving.  The question becomes, what does the talent look like that's replacing the guys that left?  What kind of experience is on the roster?  Are we replacing players with underclassmen?

From day one Bielema has been building things one brick at a time, with an eye towards getting players into the system then developing them for that system, ultimately reaching the point of having a two deep roster made up primarily of upperclassmen.  When he arrived, the two deep roster was a  mess.  No depth to speak of, with a huge chunk of the two deep being riddled with freshmen and sophomores. 

There's still a few unanswered names in terms of the starter and their backup, but one thing is crystal clear.  With what we know right now, our two deep hasn't looked this solid since we joined the league.  I don't think that point is even up for debate.  There may be some question marks, but that can't be helped.  We are in year four of a total overhaul.  All we have right now is how we look on paper, and from that perspective, things look pretty friken good. 

[bennyl08]

No, but this is a TCU program that lost a lot from last year.

As has been stated as naseum, but seeing the numbers quantified is always helpful. However, we are in the same boat as they are.

Bottom line is "who makes who" come out and be forced to play their brand of football? Take the fight to them by plowing ahead with the run game between the tackles (where you always attack a faster/quicker defense) and taking advantage of play action to complete passes for YAC and we will have this game in hand by middle of the 3rd quarter. Don't do this and we will find ourselves in a close game in the 4th quarter.

I think we win this game and if we do what we should be able to do, we win by 14 or more. Screw up and it is anyones guess how this turns out.

"What we should be able to do" is a bit of a question mark though. What is our OL who is replacing 3 starters "supposed" to be able to do vs the TCU front 7? We know what we want them to be able to do, but TCU isn't just going to sit back. Maybe we do everything right, don't miss any assignments on our OL, have consistent and good technique, but their DL is quicker and better conditioned such that their penetration keeps us from being on schedule offensively and being able to sustain long drives? Sure, I hope that we can just push our way down the field to score and they won't be able to stop, but it is hubris to say that we should be able to do that vs another power 5 team that has consistently faired well vs top 10 teams in the country. I agree that such is what we "should try to do" as a strategy vs them.

[ArkansasI]

After reading several posts, it appears that I may be one of few that is more concerned with our defense than our offense. The Hogs will miss some producers on offense, but it appears there is some skill on campus to move the football. They'll need some games to adjust, but the nature of college football means everyone is breaking in a few key players every year.

While the Hogs didn't lose much off the DL, I don't recall our guys putting a lot of pressure on opponents. Wise had some spectacular moments, but we did not have a consistent pass rush.  Agim is a freshman... a rare talent, but it is a huge leap to the SEC. Without elite corners, there may be time for QBs to find targets.

I just hope we play aggressive defense.

[DeshaHog]

By the way, I just looked over on their board and apparently they are planning a "white out" for our game.  Some guys are melting down because it will make the numerous hog supporters more noticeable while filling the stadium with our red and white colors.

Can't say I mind that  :razorback:

[RME]

By the way, I just looked over on their board and apparently they are planning a "white out" for our game.  Some guys are melting down because it will make the numerous hog supporters more noticeable while filling the stadium with our red and white colors.

Can't say I mind that  :razorback:

As opposed to red and white standing out against black and purple? If that's the case, interesting mindset they've got over there.

[LZH]

Relax young piglets....we'll be fine.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

As has been stated as naseum, but seeing the numbers quantified is always helpful. However, we are in the same boat as they are.

"What we should be able to do" is a bit of a question mark though. What is our OL who is replacing 3 starters "supposed" to be able to do vs the TCU front 7? We know what we want them to be able to do, but TCU isn't just going to sit back. Maybe we do everything right, don't miss any assignments on our OL, have consistent and good technique, but their DL is quicker and better conditioned such that their penetration keeps us from being on schedule offensively and being able to sustain long drives? Sure, I hope that we can just push our way down the field to score and they won't be able to stop, but it is hubris to say that we should be able to do that vs another power 5 team that has consistently faired well vs top 10 teams in the country. I agree that such is what we "should try to do" as a strategy vs them.

What I was trying to say is, which team will take control and make the other team play their style of football. As in any game, the team that seizes control and forces the other team to alter their game plan will likely win. Not always, but usually. And we can dream up all kinds of "what if's", but the team that executes the best and forces the other team to play their game is probably going to win this game, short of a lot of turnovers.

[bennyl08]

What I was trying to say is, which team will take control and make the other team play their style of football. As in any game, the team that seizes control and forces the other team to alter their game plan will likely win. Not always, but usually. And we can dream up all kinds of "what if's", but the team that executes the best and forces the other team to play their game is probably going to win this game, short of a lot of turnovers.

100%. That's pretty much the Bill Bellechik way, though he basically does it to the extreme. On defense, he will sell out to stop what you do best on offense. 300 yards rushing? No big deal if you are a passing team because you'll stall out in the red zone and make mistakes. On offense, whatever you do worst on defense is what he will emphasize on offense. 2 TE power offense one week, 5 wide ariel assault the next, then a TTU dink and dunk the next week.

[The OTR]

If you read this, you can see that this could be a defensive struggle, depending upon whether we execute offensively or not. Other than that, I think we stand a good chance of doing well against TCU.

we will beat TCU

[Bacon_Bitz]

http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article95561802.html

[bennyl08]

After reading several posts, it appears that I may be one of few that is more concerned with our defense than our offense. The Hogs will miss some producers on offense, but it appears there is some skill on campus to move the football. They'll need some games to adjust, but the nature of college football means everyone is breaking in a few key players every year.

While the Hogs didn't lose much off the DL, I don't recall our guys putting a lot of pressure on opponents. Wise had some spectacular moments, but we did not have a consistent pass rush.  Agim is a freshman... a rare talent, but it is a huge leap to the SEC. Without elite corners, there may be time for QBs to find targets.

I just hope we play aggressive defense.

You recall correctly. We didn't get a lot of pressure on opponents last year nor did we have a consistent rush when we did. The problem is, that was by design. When you rush the DL to get after the quarterback, they will inevitably lose gap control. Very, very, very difficult to accomplish both. So last year, we put Wise on the bench, beefed up our DL to be stronger than fast, and played the run and gap control on the DL. Only on very obvious passing downs when we felt comfortable enough to substitute on defense did we really put in an effort to rush the qb. That strategy did what it was supposed to do in that we were 12th in stopping the run iirc. However, our pass defense was well below 50th.

A big reason why there is a lot of optimism for this year's defense is that coaches appear to have abandoned last years preventative defense and are trying to replicate the success of the 2014 defense. DL players have dropped about 10 pounds to be lighter and faster and better conditioned. We appear to be starting disruptive guys like Wise and moving Ledbetter inside to be disruptive and get penetration while our best run stoppers like Winston and Jackson are backups, who will likely be situationally subbed in for obvious run stopping plays.

We don't have any "elite" cb's so to speak, but these are the same players we used in 2014 sans Tevin Mitchel. I'd argue that neither 2014 nor 2015 is indicative of their talent. They have already demonstrated that with the right personnel at other groupings and the right scheme, they can orchestrate a very strong pass defense. However, they have also demonstrated that under the right groupings and schemes, they can allow a very bad pass defense. Any cb will look bad when a qb has 5 seconds to throw and most will look good when the qb only has 2 seconds.

[Biggus Piggus]

After reading several posts, it appears that I may be one of few that is more concerned with our defense than our offense. The Hogs will miss some producers on offense, but it appears there is some skill on campus to move the football. They'll need some games to adjust, but the nature of college football means everyone is breaking in a few key players every year.

While the Hogs didn't lose much off the DL, I don't recall our guys putting a lot of pressure on opponents. Wise had some spectacular moments, but we did not have a consistent pass rush.  Agim is a freshman... a rare talent, but it is a huge leap to the SEC. Without elite corners, there may be time for QBs to find targets.

I just hope we play aggressive defense.

"Aggressive" won't be a problem at all. The defensive front is much quicker than it was last season. The whole secondary's better, the linebackers are better and deeper.

[Hogtimes]

I honestly believe we would blow them out at home. Tcu gets the advantage of playing in the weakest power 5 conference. They lost most all of their offense (only 2 real starters returning, and one contributor coming back from injury in Slanina) and the defense is woefully undersized. I  believe we will pull out a fairly comfortable 2 score win.

I also believe our OL will be better this year than last, seems almost as much size and strength with more athleticism.

You are saying a two score win is a blowout?

[hogcard1964]

By the way - don't last season's Arkansas stats kinda defy the notion that practicing against your own strengths makes you better? TCU had a balanced offense but was strongest at passing; their pass D was the best feature of their defense. For Arkansas, we clearly understood run defense far better than pass D. And passing was the best part of our offense.

Last time Kenny Hill faced the Hogs...

Win- 21 of 41 passing, 4 TDs, 1 int.  All 4 TDs were thrown in the 4th qtr bringing A & M back from a 28-14 deficit. A & M ended up winning 35-28.

This is what concerns me.  We need to knock the pi*s out of him.

[Jborohog09]

Last time Kenny Hill faced the Hogs...

Win- 21 of 41 passing, 4 TDs, 1 int.  All 4 TDs were thrown in the 4th qtr bringing A & M back from a 28-14 deficit. A & M ended up winning 35-28.

This is what concerns me.  We need to knock the pi*s out of him.

A&M scored two TD's in the fourth yet he threw for four that quarter.  That's impressive.

[EastexHawg]

Even though TCU will be playing a lot of new guys, their offense is the type that has been able to gash us in the last few years. Kenny Hill is a very good athlete at QB who can tuck and run, which is our kryptonite. I like our chances to win but this could also be a similar game to Texas Tech last year where we get beat single handedly by a mobile quarterback. Hopefully our defensive line walks the walk this year. Our coaches hyped them up last offseason as well only for their pass rush to end up being one of the biggest weaknesses on the team

Kenny Hill is no Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes is one of the best players in college football and a bona fide Heisman contender.  Hill had one big game against South Carolina but was later benched at A&M.

[bennyl08]

Kenny Hill is no Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes is one of the best players in college football and a bona fide Heisman contender.  Hill had one big game against South Carolina but was later benched at A&M.

Bona fide in that he is technically eligible for the heisman, sure. As of Aug 4th at least, there were 9 other qb's ahead of him on the vegas odds for the hiesman. Being 10th in line for qb's isn't bad, but when I wouldn't put him among the best. I.e, those in the top 5 of voting or in consideration for being a first round draft pick.

[GuvHog]

Bona fide in that he is technically eligible for the heisman, sure. As of Aug 4th at least, there were 9 other qb's ahead of him on the vegas odds for the hiesman. Being 10th in line for qb's isn't bad, but when I wouldn't put him among the best. I.e, those in the top 5 of voting or in consideration for being a first round draft pick.

Well I would put him among the best. Mahomes is a great QB.

[EastexHawg]

Bona fide in that he is technically eligible for the heisman, sure. As of Aug 4th at least, there were 9 other qb's ahead of him on the vegas odds for the hiesman. Being 10th in line for qb's isn't bad, but when I wouldn't put him among the best. I.e, those in the top 5 of voting or in consideration for being a first round draft pick.

Put him wherever you want.  The numbers he put up as a sophomore last year, his first full season as a starter, put him 14th in NCAA history in single season total offense.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/tot-yds-player-season.html

The only major college player to put up more total yards last year was Deshaun Watson of Clemson.  Watson gained 100 more yards but played two more games.

As for whether he is an NFL prospect...he is 6'3", 230 pounds and is predominantly a pocket passer with a rocket arm...but he also has great mobility.  He's not really a running QB, he is a pass-first QB who uses his mobility to make plays down the field.

We'll see what the NFL thinks about his prospects when he declares for the draft.

[Biggus Piggus]

Mahomes is better than the top two draft picks this year.

[Overtheroadtruckdriver]

After all this debate is it even necessary for us to play the game?  Sounds like we have it all figured out already.

Love these long winded diatribes by our eggheads on here.  Usually can read a few posts when I go to bed and go right to sleep.

[wildhogman]

Put him wherever you want.  The numbers he put up as a sophomore last year, his first full season as a starter, put him 14th in NCAA history in single season total offense.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/tot-yds-player-season.html

The only major college player to put up more total yards last year was Deshaun Watson of Clemson.  Watson gained 100 more yards but played two more games.

As for whether he is an NFL prospect...he is 6'3", 230 pounds and is predominantly a pocket passer with a rocket arm...but he also has great mobility.  He's not really a running QB, he is a pass-first QB who uses his mobility to make plays down the field.

We'll see what the NFL thinks about his prospects when he declares for the draft.

I read that link and found it interesting that the only two SEC QB's on it were Cam Newton who won a Title, and Dak Prescott who never even won the west. Also saw Tech has several QB's on that list. Guess the old saying football is a team sport is proven a little bit. Or else QB's putting up those kinds of numbers would win a Title more often.
As a side note, no bama QB's on that top 100 list, no Ohio St QB's.  I think the only QB on the top 100 to play in the title game is the kid from Clemson. So 1 out of 100? Maybe I could be wrong in that.