Main things I wonder about, re: Razorback football

[Biggus Piggus]

At this point, it is reasonable to expect that the Arkansas-TCU game will be low scoring. Isn't that what you have to believe?

Both teams will have new starting QBs and RBs. Arkansas will have three new Oline starters, TCU four. Both teams return most of their top pass-catchers. Both have most of their defensive starters back.

Whoever turns out to be better at QB probably wins. And that means the game might be decided by how good Kenny Hill is. We pretty much know who Austin Allen is.

TCU's starting ends combined for 16 sacks last season. They are very much pass rush specialists. The linebackers are smallish but make a lot of plays. DC Dick Bumpas is long gone. Their defense had problems last season without Bumpas, and the college football world believes TCU will bounce back and have another great defense. Maybe they have more issues than that?

Another part of this pick is which team deserves more faith in its ability to improve on defense. Arkansas allowed 24.6 points per game (in regulation) last season, with three opponents scoring more than 30 points in regulation vs. four under 20. TCU allowed 27.2 ppg in 2015 - gave up 30+ six times vs. five under 20.

The Frogs might be more talented than the Hogs are at LB and in the secondary. But I can't see their Dline being as good.

Have to be impressed with the speed/quickness that Arkansas has managed to recruit for the offense. Can we get some of that now for the defensive secondary?

Both Arkansas and TCU are something of a mystery at running back. It is hard to imagine Bret Bielema/Dan Enos giving freshmen much playing time at Fort Worth. The young backs have to learn the offense, and they do not have much time before game two. That means leaning primarily on Rawleigh Williams III (coming off major injury) and Kody Walker (always coming off injury). Will Williams and Walker produce modest yards, or also some big plays and touchdowns?

Paul Rhoads seems to be satisfied with a good number of players in the secondary, but I wonder whether the DBs will come up with big plays -- third down stops, tackles for losses and turnovers. That kind of production might depend on how good the pass rush is.

Speaking of that -- is the defensive line that good, the offensive line that poor, or something in the middle of those extremes?

[goodguytex]

At this point, it is reasonable to expect that the Arkansas-TCU game will be low scoring. Isn't that what you have to believe?

Both teams will have new starting QBs and RBs. Arkansas will have three new Oline starters, TCU four. Both teams return most of their top pass-catchers. Both have most of their defensive starters back.

Whoever turns out to be better at QB probably wins. And that means the game might be decided by how good Kenny Hill is. We pretty much know who Austin Allen is.

TCU's starting ends combined for 16 sacks last season. They are very much pass rush specialists. The linebackers are smallish but make a lot of plays. DC Dick Bumpas is long gone. Their defense had problems last season without Bumpas, and the college football world believes TCU will bounce back and have another great defense. Maybe they have more issues than that?

Another part of this pick is which team deserves more faith in its ability to improve on defense. Arkansas allowed 24.6 points per game (in regulation) last season, with three opponents scoring more than 30 points in regulation vs. four under 20. TCU allowed 27.2 ppg in 2015 - gave up 30+ six times vs. five under 20.

The Frogs might be more talented than the Hogs are at LB and in the secondary. But I can't see their Dline being as good.

Have to be impressed with the speed/quickness that Arkansas has managed to recruit for the offense. Can we get some of that now for the defensive secondary?

Both Arkansas and TCU are something of a mystery at running back. It is hard to imagine Bret Bielema/Dan Enos giving freshmen much playing time at Fort Worth. The young backs have to learn the offense, and they do not have much time before game two. That means leaning primarily on Rawleigh Williams III (coming off major injury) and Kody Walker (always coming off injury). Will Williams and Walker produce modest yards, or also some big plays and touchdowns?

Paul Rhoads seems to be satisfied with a good number of players in the secondary, but I wonder whether the DBs will come up with big plays -- third down stops, tackles for losses and turnovers. That kind of production might depend on how good the pass rush is.

Speaking of that -- is the defensive line that good, the offensive line that poor, or something in the middle of those extremes?

I pretty much share the same concerns you do about the TCU game. It helps having a tune-up game against LA Tech, who we still can't sleep on either after Toledo last year. But the coaches will have good game film after game 1 and will hopefully be able to work out some of the problems from game 1. But TCU will be in the same spot we will. What gives TCU the advantage is the game is on their field, not ours.

When kids play that have never started before, they go into a road game and their emotions run high, they tend to make mistakes they might not normally make. We may see some of that from some of these new starters.

Austin may overthrow more than he should, and we may see more INTs than we would like. But it's understandable if it happens. Just have to hope our defense is solid enough to help secure a win. If we do beat TCU, I think we will win at least 9 games. We lose, it's 7-8.

[razorbackfan4life]

Work the underneath routes and run the ball.  Play action will open itself up.  We have to get Austin comfortable and that relies so much on the OL providing room for him to work. 

[Biggus Piggus]

Rhoads said the top DBs were:

CB - Jared Collins and Henre' Toliver, Kevin Richardson, D.J. Dean and Ryan Pulley, Britto Tutt

S - Josh Liddell, Santos Ramirez and De'Andre Coley pretty even, Reid Miller - Nate Dalton further back

Richardson is a top sub when the Hogs go to 5-6 DBs, and he can play corner or safety in those sets. Richardson effectively gives the Hogs five safeties and at least five corners who are ready to play.

Rhoads said he wanted to redshirt Deon Edwards and Micahh Smith.

[Biggus Piggus]

Work the underneath routes and run the ball.  Play action will open itself up.  We have to get Austin comfortable and that relies so much on the OL providing room for him to work. 

Got to establish the run so that play-action works. Arkansas has big-play potential with those short and intermediate passes. That's a great feature of this offense. Big plays with moderate risk.

[a0ashle]

TCU runs 4-2-5 normally with one of the DBs being a LB hybrid, I think one factor will be how they adapt that 4-2-5 to play against a team who is perfectly happy running it between the tackles. They have to a learn a new scheme, or a variation of a new scheme (that they won't use much the rest of the year) just to deal with our offense. I think our defense to stop TCU won't be as novel to us. That is not to say it tips the field one way or another, but I think it is worth consideration to some degree.

[hawginbigd1]

I honestly believe we would blow them out at home. Tcu gets the advantage of playing in the weakest power 5 conference. They lost most all of their offense (only 2 real starters returning, and one contributor coming back from injury in Slanina) and the defense is woefully undersized. I  believe we will pull out a fairly comfortable 2 score win.

I also believe our OL will be better this year than last, seems almost as much size and strength with more athleticism.

[Pig in the Pokey]

I honestly believe we would blow them out at home. Tcu gets the advantage of playing in the weakest power 5 conference. They lost most all of their offense and the defense is woefully undersized. I  believe we will pull out a fairly comfortable 2 score win.

agree. 31-17, Hogs.

[hawginbigd1]

agree. 31-17, Hogs.

I live in TCU country, I put my thoughts in 3 bullet points on the white board in the office yesterday:

6.0 YPC avg.
31-20 final score
Could turn into a blowout?

[The Hogfather]

agree. 31-17, Hogs.

Same here.  That would be my score.

[Bacon_Bitz]

TCU will be a very very good team with lots of returning experience and a potentially lethal QB.  But we will be the most physical team they have faced in years.  Seriously.  We will likely be the most physical, bruising team that everyone on the TCU football team has ever faced in their lives, a week after they play South Dakota State at home.  Which is another advantage for us.  The crowd will not be worked up as much since it's not a home opener.  And TCU will respect us some but they won't get too fired up over us. 

[Biggus Piggus]

I honestly believe we would blow them out at home. Tcu gets the advantage of playing in the weakest power 5 conference. They lost most all of their offense and the defense is woefully undersized. I  believe we will pull out a fairly comfortable 2 score win.

TCU was best last year against opponents with the worst passers. Nobody they played was a power running, play-action team.

TCU's key defensive statistical rankings vs. all FBS teams:

3. Third down conversion % defense
11. Fumbles recovered
23. Pass efficiency defense
25. Red zone defense
27. Yards allowed per completion
35. Sacks
54. Tackles for losses
64. Scoring defense
73. Turnovers gained
80. Rushing defense
84. Net punting
85. First downs allowed
107. Interceptions

Their key offensive statistical rankings:

3. Fumbles lost
7. Scoring offense
8. Passing offense
24. Completion %, rushing offense
27. Yards per completion, sacks allowed
32. Third down conversion %
40. Tackled for losses
51. Turnovers lost
92. Red zone offense
104. Interceptions

Interesting that TCU could finish 11-2 when not ranking well on many statistical measures.

[hawginbigd1]

What happens when you play in the JR leagues, for a $1000 Alex?

Whole Oregon coaching staff should be fired

[Biggus Piggus]

Here are the same for Arkansas. Offense:

1. Fumbles lost
3. Turnovers lost
5. Passing efficiency
9. Sacks allowed
10. Tackled for losses
12. Yards per completion
14. Interceptions
15. Third down conversion %
17. Completion %
27. Scoring offense
29. First downs
32. Passing offense
34. Rushing offense
76. Red zone offense

Defense:

12. Rushing defense
68. First downs allowed, scoring defense
71. Interceptions
78. Turnovers gained
87. Net punting
88. Fumbles recovered
90. Red zone defense
96. Tackles for losses
102. Third down conversion % defense, sacks
103. Pass efficiency defense

One more comparison - Arkansas was sixth in the country in penalty yards per game (fewest), while TCU was near the very worst.

When I look at these, several thoughts come to mind.

How many of those great offensive stats were driven by the play of Brandon Allen? How many of those strengths can be retained?

We fixate on the running game, but retaining that potent passing attack is the key in my view.

Arkansas's defense - why was it better than TCU's for scoring defense? Because everybody in the Big 12 scores a lot? By many measures the Frogs were significantly better. The Hogs could improve a lot and still be ordinary on defense. Their big-play production and drive-stopping ability were far from adequate.

[Biggus Piggus]

By the way - don't last season's Arkansas stats kinda defy the notion that practicing against your own strengths makes you better? TCU had a balanced offense but was strongest at passing; their pass D was the best feature of their defense. For Arkansas, we clearly understood run defense far better than pass D. And passing was the best part of our offense.

[jbhogfan4]

Even though TCU will be playing a lot of new guys, their offense is the type that has been able to gash us in the last few years. Kenny Hill is a very good athlete at QB who can tuck and run, which is our kryptonite. I like our chances to win but this could also be a similar game to Texas Tech last year where we get beat single handedly by a mobile quarterback. Hopefully our defensive line walks the walk this year. Our coaches hyped them up last offseason as well only for their pass rush to end up being one of the biggest weaknesses on the team

[Hawgvillain]

At this point, it is reasonable to expect that the Arkansas-TCU game will be low scoring. Isn't that what you have to believe?

Both teams will have new starting QBs and RBs. Arkansas will have three new Oline starters, TCU four. Both teams return most of their top pass-catchers. Both have most of their defensive starters back.

Whoever turns out to be better at QB probably wins. And that means the game might be decided by how good Kenny Hill is. We pretty much know who Austin Allen is.

TCU's starting ends combined for 16 sacks last season. They are very much pass rush specialists. The linebackers are smallish but make a lot of plays. DC Dick Bumpas is long gone. Their defense had problems last season without Bumpas, and the college football world believes TCU will bounce back and have another great defense. Maybe they have more issues than that?

Another part of this pick is which team deserves more faith in its ability to improve on defense. Arkansas allowed 24.6 points per game (in regulation) last season, with three opponents scoring more than 30 points in regulation vs. four under 20. TCU allowed 27.2 ppg in 2015 - gave up 30+ six times vs. five under 20.

The Frogs might be more talented than the Hogs are at LB and in the secondary. But I can't see their Dline being as good.

Have to be impressed with the speed/quickness that Arkansas has managed to recruit for the offense. Can we get some of that now for the defensive secondary?

Both Arkansas and TCU are something of a mystery at running back. It is hard to imagine Bret Bielema/Dan Enos giving freshmen much playing time at Fort Worth. The young backs have to learn the offense, and they do not have much time before game two. That means leaning primarily on Rawleigh Williams III (coming off major injury) and Kody Walker (always coming off injury). Will Williams and Walker produce modest yards, or also some big plays and touchdowns?

Paul Rhoads seems to be satisfied with a good number of players in the secondary, but I wonder whether the DBs will come up with big plays -- third down stops, tackles for losses and turnovers. That kind of production might depend on how good the pass rush is.

Speaking of that -- is the defensive line that good, the offensive line that poor, or something in the middle of those extremes?

How do you figure TCU has most of their top pass catchers back when the best wr in their history is gone from last season?

[Biggus Piggus]

How do you figure TCU has most of their top pass catchers back when the best wr in their history is gone from last season?

Both are true. Simple math.

[Biggus Piggus]

Even though TCU will be playing a lot of new guys, their offense is the type that has been able to gash us in the last few years. Kenny Hill is a very good athlete at QB who can tuck and run, which is our kryptonite. I like our chances to win but this could also be a similar game to Texas Tech last year where we get beat single handedly by a mobile quarterback. Hopefully our defensive line walks the walk this year. Our coaches hyped them up last offseason as well only for their pass rush to end up being one of the biggest weaknesses on the team

Yes, run-pass QBs still scare me. The Hogs have shown that they understand how to stop pro-style and are mystified by spread passing/spread option. TCU's scheme has been terrific. Our defense has a lot to prove. Maybe "low scoring" is wishful thinking.

I was influenced in my thinking by the fact that TCU opened slowly against Minnesota last season, and they have more new parts this season.

[staffhog]

When I think of how we match up with TCU, T Tech suddenly appears in my minds eye.  Kenny Hill is no Mahomes but he is a scrambler and possesses a good deal of experience.  I know these thoughts are prompted by the fact that another perfect storm could cost us a game in which we should dominate.

I keep prompting myself that TCU does not have a crow to pick like Tech did after we curb stomped them in Lubbock.  Another bit of reassurance is the fact that CDE has himself and his offense solidly in place as compared to this time last year.  After game 4/5 last year we discovered we could move the ball on anyone.  This I contribute primarily to coach Enos' play calling and QB tutoring.

I always deal with "worse case scenario" in dealing with a big game and I think this is one of them.  We may not be able to do much more than dink and dunk with a few 6 to 8 yd runs max for a half or well into the third quarter.  If our D is remotely close to what I think they will be, they should at least keep us in the game.  If it is close with a 4th quarter facing these Razorbacks, I believe they will rise to the occasion on the backs of those close losses from the last couple of years and pull out at least an ot victory. 

This is my worst case, I think we win by 10 pts in a game that we physically dominate in most areas but still struggle to capitalize a number of times.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

At this point, it is reasonable to expect that the Arkansas-TCU game will be low scoring. Isn't that what you have to believe?

Both teams will have new starting QBs and RBs. Arkansas will have three new Oline starters, TCU four. Both teams return most of their top pass-catchers. Both have most of their defensive starters back.

Whoever turns out to be better at QB probably wins. And that means the game might be decided by how good Kenny Hill is. We pretty much know who Austin Allen is.

TCU's starting ends combined for 16 sacks last season. They are very much pass rush specialists. The linebackers are smallish but make a lot of plays. DC Dick Bumpas is long gone. Their defense had problems last season without Bumpas, and the college football world believes TCU will bounce back and have another great defense. Maybe they have more issues than that?

Another part of this pick is which team deserves more faith in its ability to improve on defense. Arkansas allowed 24.6 points per game (in regulation) last season, with three opponents scoring more than 30 points in regulation vs. four under 20. TCU allowed 27.2 ppg in 2015 - gave up 30+ six times vs. five under 20.

The Frogs might be more talented than the Hogs are at LB and in the secondary. But I can't see their Dline being as good.

Have to be impressed with the speed/quickness that Arkansas has managed to recruit for the offense. Can we get some of that now for the defensive secondary?

Both Arkansas and TCU are something of a mystery at running back. It is hard to imagine Bret Bielema/Dan Enos giving freshmen much playing time at Fort Worth. The young backs have to learn the offense, and they do not have much time before game two. That means leaning primarily on Rawleigh Williams III (coming off major injury) and Kody Walker (always coming off injury). Will Williams and Walker produce modest yards, or also some big plays and touchdowns?

Paul Rhoads seems to be satisfied with a good number of players in the secondary, but I wonder whether the DBs will come up with big plays -- third down stops, tackles for losses and turnovers. That kind of production might depend on how good the pass rush is.

Speaking of that -- is the defensive line that good, the offensive line that poor, or something in the middle of those extremes?

If anything I would say we need to reverse that. If we know anything about either of these guys it's Hill that we know about.

Sample size.

[Biggus Piggus]

If anything I would say we need to reverse that. If we know anything about either of these guys it's Hill that we know about.

Sample size.

The guy crapped out at aTm. He might have been the QB in that first OT win over Arkansas, but he only completed 51% in that game. Made enough mistakes that we should have won.

He only started three more games for the Aggies. He never played again after the 59-0 loss to Alabama.

I don't know what to expect from him at all. Don't even know if he will start. They have another QB, Foster Sawyer. Not a runner, a big (6-5), pro-style QB.

[phadedhawg]

I have no opinions or thoughts about TCU.  LaTech is first and Arkansas can never afford to take early season opponents lightly ever again.  I just wanna go 1-0 that week.  The week after will take care of itself. 

[Biggus Piggus]

I have no opinions or thoughts about TCU.  LaTech is first and Arkansas can never afford to take early season opponents lightly ever again.  I just wanna go 1-0 that week.  The week after will take care of itself. 

If Arkansas had played Toledo first - in Fayetteville - last season, things would have been a lot different.

[bphi11ips]

I think you're overthinking this one.  TCU is a game of matchups - Arkansas's power vs. TCU's speed. 

It seems to me that Kenny Hill is the one we know more about.  He's beaten Arkansas once, throwing for 386 yards, 4 Tds and 1 interception against the Hogs in 2014.  Why he was benched mid-year at A&M is a bit of a mystery given his stats at the time Kyle Allen took over as a true freshman.  Hill completed 67% of his passes for 2649 yards, had 23 TDs against 8 interceptions, and had a rating of 154.6.  Maybe Sumlin gave in to fan pressure and the ego of a 5-star prima donna.  For whatever reason, Sumlin may regret his decision on Hill.  We'll see.

I love Austin Allen's high school film and the fact that he's a fourth year junior, but until we see him under center as THE guy, he'll be a question mark.  On the other hand, I think Allen is surrounded by the best personnel and weapons, especially at WR and TE, vs. TCU.  Arkansas is flying under the radar because no one is used to seeing Arkansas lately start the season with the best WRs in the SEC and because the media remembers BAs sophomore year.  But AA isn't a sophomore with a deficit at WR. 

I see this game essentially as a replay of Texas Tech.  I don't expect a close game.  It will either be Tech 2014 or 2015.  TCU isn't likely to have the firepower of the last two years, and they aren't built defensively to withstand the punishment Arkansas will unleash against them.  Our backs and line don't worry me.   So I'll go with 2014.

[The NewEra]

Dan Enos has coached against Gary Patterson before.  I think he'll have our offensive scheme well laid out. 

With Rhodes coaching our safeties I feel a lot better than I did at the end of last year.  He knows how to have secondaries prepared for a Big12 style.

Segrest is working overtime with the D-line to ensure they hold their gaps, shrink the pockets and get their sacks there instead of letting a q.b. run willy nilly on us.  We were getting some nice sacks last year whey our defense maintained gap integrity.

Josh Williams hopefully starting, a year in the program under his belt for Greenlaw and hopefully Ellis best year will give us our best linebacker corps in years.

I'm projecting here, but:  I see 100% improvement in our secondary, 40% improvement at Linebacker, 40% improvement in the O-line for the Hogs this year.

On offense I hope we only give up 30% max efficiency.  That would still make us a potent offense.  I thought last years O-line actually underperformed for the first half of the season last year. 

We haven't been this talented at the skill position in forever.  If we can get over the jitters of playing away early in the game it may be a long day for TCU.  I was watching their bowl game the other day and I was not impressed with their defense.  Unless they've improved dramatically I think we will do well against them.

[PonderinHog]

I'll think we'll rip their lizard heads off and crap down their necks.   :razorback:  45-21

Book it.  Take it to the bank.

[Biggus Piggus]

Maybe Sumlin gave in to fan pressure and the ego of a 5-star prima donna.  For whatever reason, Sumlin may regret his decision on Hill.  We'll see.

The only decision Sumlin made about Hill was to bench him after he had six INTs and three losses in a three-game stretch, followed by a second suspension for "violating team rules."

[alohawg]

I think you're overthinking this one.  TCU is a game of matchups - Arkansas's power vs. TCU's speed. 

It seems to me that Kenny Hill is the one we know more about.  He's beaten Arkansas once, throwing for 386 yards, 4 Tds and 1 interception against the Hogs in 2014.  Why he was benched mid-year at A&M is a bit of a mystery given his stats at the time Kyle Allen took over as a true freshman.  Hill completed 67% of his passes for 2649 yards, had 23 TDs against 8 interceptions, and had a rating of 154.6.  Maybe Sumlin gave in to fan pressure and the ego of a 5-star prima donna.  For whatever reason, Sumlin may regret his decision on Hill.  We'll see.

I love Austin Allen's high school film and the fact that he's a fourth year junior, but until we see him under center as THE guy, he'll be a question mark.  On the other hand, I think Allen is surrounded by the best personnel and weapons, especially at WR and TE, vs. TCU.  Arkansas is flying under the radar because no one is used to seeing Arkansas lately start the season with the best WRs in the SEC and because the media remembers BAs sophomore year.  But AA isn't a sophomore with a deficit at WR. 

I see this game essentially as a replay of Texas Tech.  I don't expect a close game.  It will either be Tech 2014 or 2015.  TCU isn't likely to have the firepower of the last two years, and they aren't built defensively to withstand the punishment Arkansas will unleash against them.  Our backs and line don't worry me.   So I'll go with 2014.

I like this, especially the end.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

The guy crapped out at aTm. He might have been the QB in that first OT win over Arkansas, but he only completed 51% in that game. Made enough mistakes that we should have won.

He only started three more games for the Aggies. He never played again after the 59-0 loss to Alabama.

I don't know what to expect from him at all. Don't even know if he will start. They have another QB, Foster Sawyer. Not a runner, a big (6-5), pro-style QB.

I know that one of these guys has thrown 343 passes in college football games and the other has thrown 16.

I think it's fair to say we have greater ability to guess what one is bringing to the table more than we do the other.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

 I believe we may have our own LT type of back this year. If Whaley can skip, skat and skwash his way onto the seen we are in for a treat. RB's are loaded, but young, then there's Walker...

[Biggus Piggus]

I believe we may have our own LT type of back this year. If Whaley can skip, skat and skwash his way onto the seen we are in for a treat. RB's are loaded, but young, then there's Walker...

Whaley is the real deal, but I doubt he gets many carries until later in the season when he is ready to handle all the assignments on first and second downs.

[nchogg]

Why most seem to forget that at mid-season last year Coach B told Coach Enos to open up the offensive play calling and once he did our offense moved the ball. He will call plays to move the ball and with our defensive staff I'm not too worried.

[ricepig]

Why most seem to forget that at mid-season last year Coach B told Coach Enos to open up the offensive play calling and once he did our offense moved the ball. He will call plays to move the ball and with our defensive staff I'm not too worried.

We moved the ball against Toledo and Tech, we couldn't score in the first, nor stop them in the latter. However, we did play much better after their "meeting".

[bphi11ips]

The only decision Sumlin made about Hill was to bench him after he had six INTs and three losses in a three-game stretch, followed by a second suspension for "violating team rules."

So I heard. 

[Großer Kriegschwein]

http://gridironnow.com/arkansas-football-freshmen-bret-bielema/

Fillin the gaps

[Biggus Piggus]

Last game TCU lost in August/September:

37-27 vs. LSU at Jerry World in 2013. That season, the Frogs finished 4-8. Dey was bad.

[Seebs]

Tackling. Lots of isolation and if our secondary misses or fails to wrap up could be a long day.  Tackling.

Thing I look forward to seeing is the brute force our team will have against a finesse team and if we can make them wilt.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

TCU was best last year against opponents with the worst passers. Nobody they played was a power running, play-action team.

TCU's key defensive statistical rankings vs. all FBS teams:

3. Third down conversion % defense
11. Fumbles recovered
23. Pass efficiency defense
25. Red zone defense
27. Yards allowed per completion
35. Sacks
54. Tackles for losses
64. Scoring defense
73. Turnovers gained
80. Rushing defense
84. Net punting
85. First downs allowed
107. Interceptions

Interesting that TCU could finish 11-2 when not ranking well on many statistical measures.

TCU Preview
DEFENSE:

DE: TCU loses Lathan and Tuaua, both at RDE who between them had 71 games of career experience (last 3 years) and 33 career starts. Josh Carraway (6-4, 250) is really the lone returning starter playing LE (26 games, 20 starts)but Bryan Henderson (6-6, 275) appeared in 12 games LY with 1 start and 9 the year before. Mitchell(6-4, 270) has moved to DT, and Galeai(6-5, 220) appeared in 5 and 7 games LY, respectively, as Freshmen. Carraway is the experienced "old man" here with 25 Tackles, 11 Asst Tackles, 11.5 TFL, 9 Sacks and 2 PBU's. No one else that is returning has anything that is anywhere close to his numbers. James McFarland(6-3, 255) is the listed starter at LDE and he was a RS last year but appeared in 12 games in 2014 logging 17 Tackles and 3 Sacks.

DT: TCU loses Davion Pierson, (34 games, 29 starts) who had 14 Tackles, 11.5 Asst Tackles, 6.5 TFL and 2 Sacks. But Aaron Curry and Chris Bradley return with 38 games and 17 career starts between them. TCU also returns Tevin Lawson who only saw action in 7 games LY but played in 13 games in 2014 and 11 games in 2013. He isn't inexperienced. As a unit, the DT's return 79 games and 17 starts, 38 Tackles, 26 Asst Tackles, 11 TFL, 6 Sacks and 1 PBU. They aren't dominating in size like SEC DT's, but they are quick and fast. They return a group that secured 1 Sack in every 22.7 passing attempts and 1 TFL in every 13.1 rushing attempts. Mitchell(see above) moves in from DE and should see a lot of playing time.

LB: TCU returns all of their LB's. Again, this unit isn't what you typically see in the SEC. There aren't any 240-250 lb. LB's that run 4.5-4.6 40's. They are smallish at 205-210, but they are also quick and fast and really are not designed to hold up against a more massive OL that brings the attack to them. They hope to read, react and outmaneuver their opponents. The basic returning starters are Howard, Wilson and Summers who between them have 51 career games, 23 starts, 136 tackles from LY, 58 Asst Tackles, 16 TFL, 4 Sacks, 3 PBU's and 1 INT. Not exactly overly impressive numbers in terms of pass defense despite playing in a passing conference. The only LB'er group in the West that would have been worse in PBU's per attempt was Auburn at 1 in every 152.7 passing attempts. TCU's LB's had 1 PBU in every 147.3 passing attempts. TCU's LB's should be better if for no other reason than being a year older with more experience.

DB: TCU loses FS Derrick Kindred and CB Corry O'Meally and another DB in Kenny Iloka who between them 74 games and 39 starts. But all is not lost for TCU who returns 2 full time starters in Nick Orr (CB) and Denzel Johnson (SS) who between them have 63 games and 26 starts. Overall, Johnson was more productive than Kindred last year 54 Tackles, 12.5 Asst Tackles, 13.5 TFL, 1 INT, 8 PBU's and 2 Sacks. As a unit they return 173 games and 55 starts and 30 PBU's. The problem is that their DB's as a whole only had 1 INT in every 88.4 passing attempts LY, but they had 1 PBU in every 10 attempts and 1 TFL in every 22 rushing attempts. They aren't a pushover, but they aren't Alabama either.

This defense could wind up being good but their whole philosophy is predicated on being lighter, but faster and quicker than their opponents. Because of their lack of size I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of slants/ stunts/ games to try to confuse our O-Line, create some havoc and try to utilize their speed and athleticism to make plays in space. If they have to try to defend a team that isn't confused and brings the fight to them, they may wear out sometime in the late 3rd quarter. Just remember, what do you do when you face a team with more speed than you? You run right at them. Hopefully, that will play right into our hands.

[Hog N Bama]

The only decision Sumlin made about Hill was to bench him after he had six INTs and three losses in a three-game stretch, followed by a second suspension for "violating team rules."

Hoping Mr Wise knocks the living daylights out of Kenny "trill" early to set the tempo!  :razorback:

[TheRazorback500]

HOGS skill position advantage and experienced, deeper D makes the difference. 28-21 good guys.

:razorback:

[PorkSoda]

By the way - don't last season's Arkansas stats kinda defy the notion that practicing against your own strengths makes you better? TCU had a balanced offense but was strongest at passing; their pass D was the best feature of their defense. For Arkansas, we clearly understood run defense far better than pass D. And passing was the best part of our offense.

we are a running team that happened to have a good year passing.  I hope we continue to be good at passing, but we are still a run first team.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

we are a running team that happened to have a good year passing.  I hope we continue to be good at passing, but we are still a run first team.

I'll go a step further and say that we didn't just "happen" to have a good year passing last season. I think it was very purposeful and had a lot to do with the teacher and OC who not only had great influence on the play calling, but teaching the QB's and yes, even influence on the WR's and their Coach. He was the rising tide that lifted all boats.

Now the question is, can he repeat the same performance? He has a willing pupil (or pupils) who should have benefited by having more time with him than BA had, so we will see.

[bphi11ips]

we are a running team that happened to have a good year passing.  I hope we continue to be good at passing, but we are still a run first team.

Depends on how you view things.  Bielema's teams going back to 2006 have had an uncanny knack for balance in rushing and passing yards per game.  He wants at least 200 of each, and that's about his average.  He also wants to be able to throw when he wants to throw and run when he wants to run.  Last year he was able to do that most of the time, but the running game started slowly behind an inexplicably confused O-line. 

Bielema currently has 3 former QBs on NFL rosters - Scott Tolzien, Russell Wilson and Brandon Allen.  His teams have always been able to throw the ball.  But he likes to control the clock and set up the big play with the run.  If that makes us a run first team, I'm okay with it.  You won't see anyone stack the box and dare us to throw the way you did with Nutt teams or Bielema's 2013 team with no receivers and an injured sophomore QB.  If they do they're gonna pay,  even Alabama.

[PonderinHog]

Hopefully Reed and Allen are on the same page from day one.  Maybe we'll avoid the slow start.

[lumphog]

Got to establish the run so that play-action works. Arkansas has big-play potential with those short and intermediate passes. That's a great feature of this offense. Big plays with moderate risk.

RW3  WILL giter done & I think the O-line will be a force running the ball, then the play action, we will be FINE!!!!

[OS2 (SW) Razor Back]

At this point, it is reasonable to expect that the Arkansas-TCU game will be low scoring. Isn't that what you have to believe?

Both teams will have new starting QBs and RBs. Arkansas will have three new Oline starters, TCU four. Both teams return most of their top pass-catchers. Both have most of their defensive starters back.

Whoever turns out to be better at QB probably wins. And that means the game might be decided by how good Kenny Hill is. We pretty much know who Austin Allen is.

TCU's starting ends combined for 16 sacks last season. They are very much pass rush specialists. The linebackers are smallish but make a lot of plays. DC Dick Bumpas is long gone. Their defense had problems last season without Bumpas, and the college football world believes TCU will bounce back and have another great defense. Maybe they have more issues than that?

Another part of this pick is which team deserves more faith in its ability to improve on defense. Arkansas allowed 24.6 points per game (in regulation) last season, with three opponents scoring more than 30 points in regulation vs. four under 20. TCU allowed 27.2 ppg in 2015 - gave up 30+ six times vs. five under 20.

The Frogs might be more talented than the Hogs are at LB and in the secondary. But I can't see their Dline being as good.

Have to be impressed with the speed/quickness that Arkansas has managed to recruit for the offense. Can we get some of that now for the defensive secondary?

Both Arkansas and TCU are something of a mystery at running back. It is hard to imagine Bret Bielema/Dan Enos giving freshmen much playing time at Fort Worth. The young backs have to learn the offense, and they do not have much time before game two. That means leaning primarily on Rawleigh Williams III (coming off major injury) and Kody Walker (always coming off injury). Will Williams and Walker produce modest yards, or also some big plays and touchdowns?

Paul Rhoads seems to be satisfied with a good number of players in the secondary, but I wonder whether the DBs will come up with big plays -- third down stops, tackles for losses and turnovers. That kind of production might depend on how good the pass rush is.

Speaking of that -- is the defensive line that good, the offensive line that poor, or something in the middle of those extremes?

We have no idea who AA is.

[ComeonHogs!!!]

 Just some thoughts,

Our front four will have to slow there rush to keep hill in the pocket. this will make him have to throw it. If our secondary can cover for 2.5 to 3 sec we will be good. A tall order for us. the short dinks and dunks is what could cause concern. may have to give that up and stop them in the red zone.

On D it looks like the back end made a lot of tackles for TCU last year. makes sense because of under size LB,s that have to be quicker. If they guess wrong on which gap to fill the back end has to fill the hole. with there size there is no clogging up the running lanes. This should give our play action huge advantage. nothing worse than a team that tells you we are coming right at you and there is nothing you can do about it. then we throw it over the top. Seems i read somewhere that AA throws a nice long ball.

But after following this team since the 80's I never seems to guess right but it sure as hell is fun trying, Football is BACK GO HOGS!!.

[Mulberry Squeezins]

Here are the same for Arkansas. Offense:

1. Fumbles lost
3. Turnovers lost
5. Passing efficiency
9. Sacks allowed
10. Tackled for losses
12. Yards per completion
14. Interceptions
15. Third down conversion %
17. Completion %
27. Scoring offense
29. First downs
32. Passing offense
34. Rushing offense
76. Red zone offense

Defense:

12. Rushing defense
68. First downs allowed, scoring defense
71. Interceptions
78. Turnovers gained
87. Net punting
88. Fumbles recovered
90. Red zone defense
96. Tackles for losses
102. Third down conversion % defense, sacks
103. Pass efficiency defense

One more comparison - Arkansas was sixth in the country in penalty yards per game (fewest), while TCU was near the very worst.

When I look at these, several thoughts come to mind.

How many of those great offensive stats were driven by the play of Brandon Allen? How many of those strengths can be retained?

We fixate on the running game, but retaining that potent passing attack is the key in my view.

Arkansas's defense - why was it better than TCU's for scoring defense? Because everybody in the Big 12 scores a lot? By many measures the Frogs were significantly better. The Hogs could improve a lot and still be ordinary on defense. Their big-play production and drive-stopping ability were far from adequate.

Red Zone Offense Rank is deceptive.  Last half of the season we were damn near unstoppable

[ricepig]

Red Zone Offense Rank is deceptive.  Last half of the season we were damn near unstoppable

Yep, went from about worst to first towards the end of the season.