Gafford draft projections

[99toLife]

I've said he reminds me of AD.  He had a smooth stroke during the PK80 & OU games.  A commentator during the Vandy game said he watched him shooting FT's in practice & he didn't miss but when Mike came over to watch his stroke changed noticeably.

If true, he needs to get over the mental thing.. I think he will be fine in the long run.

[razorback1829]

I honestly think he can come back like Blake Griffin did and have that type of impact season and go top 5. Lot of good reasons to stay another year, just as many for him to go.

[Paul]

If true, he needs to get over the mental thing.. I think he will be fine in the long run.

He has the athleticism & motor to be a star at the next level

[toxichog]

Would another year in college do him good.......yes, especially if most of the summer is spent in the weight room getting Stronger.  But, if he draft number is high enough, he may not have much choice.  Watching him block that shot on the baseline and outrun eight players to the other end for the dunk........Olajuwon comes to mind.  You can't coach that.

[Hawg Red]

He will just be shifting the exact same payments by one year if he ends up playing the exact same number of years due to mileage.  Here is a toy example:

Earnings by leaving:
Age Salary
19  5
20  7
21  10
22  15
23  20
24  20
25  15
26  10
27  7
28  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

Earnings by staying:

20  5
21  7
22  10
23  15
24  20
25  20
26  15
27  10
28  7
29  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

114 = 114.  Capiche?

Or, or.....just stick with me on this -- he would have played one more year at 3 million had he entered the draft last season.

Bottom line is, my point is, after looking at past drafts, there is no upside in a player like Robert Williams coming back after they have a late lottery-mid first projection. They aren't really likely to move up. I supported his decision at the team because I did think he could jump up into the top 8 or so. That was a wrong take on my part. I see that now. And as such, his decision to return cost him about 3 million dollars. Like you said, we don't know how long he'll play but we do know that he lost a year of good money. Bird in the hand.

[Hawg Red]

Would another year in college do him good.......yes, especially if most of the summer is spent in the weight room getting Stronger.  But, if he draft number is high enough, he may not have much choice.  Watching him block that shot on the baseline and outrun eight players to the other end for the dunk........Olajuwon comes to mind.  You can't coach that.

Can he not hit the weight room if he goes pro?



*Whispers into the wind --- "Does he even need to add much weight?"*

[RacinRazorback]

For what its worth I saw on ESPN last night Gafford was projected to be picked 17th! I selfishly hope he stays around for another year but wouldn't blame him if he left!

[riccoar]

And there are mocks out there where he is not even in the 1st round.  It's a gamble.  Take the free advice and then make a smart decision.

[311Hog]

all of this speculation is good. It is a double edge sword for us.

If we get into the big dance and Gafford goes off his stock will sky rocket and it will become less and less of a gamble for him.

if this is to be his 1 and done year i really hope the team goes out with a bang and makes it a memorable one.

[FineAsSwine]

I hope he plays his way into being a top 10 pick, takes us to the elite 8 or better and then cashes his paycheck. This would be a win for him and a win for CMA and the program. Suddenly, many uncommitted bigs from around the country would be eyeballing the Hogs for the next few years.

[Champs04]

Hawg Red have you got a man crush?

[hogsanity]

I hope he plays his way into being a top 10 pick, takes us to the elite 8 or better and then cashes his paycheck. This would be a win for him and a win for CMA and the program.

And there you go, program comes last to the CMA backers. Keeping Gafford is all about helping Mike because next year is going to be hard enough with 6 new players, imagine it without Gafford.

[Captain Morgan]

He will cost himself millions if he goes this year.

He will be a lottery pick next season.

Isn't this what you and many others said about Moses Kingsley after his junior year? That coming back could improve his draft stock even though some like Sivad, Hawg Red and hogsanity pointed out that the 2017 draft was far far deeper than the 2016 draft.

[hogsanity]

Isn't this what you and many others said about Moses Kingsley after his junior year? That coming back could improve his draft stock even though some like Sivad, Hawg Red and hogsanity pointed out that the 2017 draft was far far deeper than the 2016 draft.

Of course they said that because Moses staying helped the team/Mike. Wanting any guy projected to be drafted in the next NBA draft to stay is selfishness on the part of fans because losing that kind of talent hurts the team. Last years team was better due to the presence of Moses, but he went from a projected late 1st rnd/early 2nd in the 2016 draft to undrafted in the 2017 draft.

[FineAsSwine]

And there you go, program comes last to the CMA backers. Keeping Gafford is all about helping Mike because next year is going to be hard enough with 6 new players, imagine it without Gafford.

Where did you see me say anything about "keeping" Gafford. I only expressed hope for how the season plays out. Even if he isn't top 10, going number 17 in the draft as a one and done will certainly get the attention of young and talented bigs from around the country. I just hope he elevates his draft status, and this team with it, this year.

You need to chill, your CMA hate is blinding you.

[hogsanity]

Where did you see me say anything about "keeping" Gafford. I only expressed hope for how the season plays out. Even if he isn't top 10, going number 17 in the draft as a one and done will certainly get the attention of young and talented bigs from around the country. I just hope he elevates his draft status, and this team with it, this year.

You need to chill, your CMA hate is blinding you.

Sorry, he isn't going to play his way into the top 10 this year, so I thought you were talking about next season.

[FineAsSwine]

Sorry, he isn't going to play his way into the top 10 this year, so I thought you were talking about next season.

I didn't state it as a fact, in fact I said I HOPE!

Damn man will you not be satisfied until every hope, dream and positive thought for the future is extinguished!

Now I need to go and meditate and self medicate for a while.

[Hawg Red]

And there are mocks out there where he is not even in the 1st round.  It's a gamble.  Take the free advice and then make a smart decision.

There are no *credible* mocks without him in the 1st round. There is no more credible source of NBA draft info than Jonathan Givony.

[hogsanity]

Damn man will you not be satisfied until every hope, dream and positive thought for the future is extinguished!

That's funny considering all those on here trying to crush the positive for Gafford that he will be a 1st rnd NBA pick in the 2018 draft.

[Soooie21]

Every center, starter or backup  will eat his lunch....

[Kevin]

somebody needs to tell cma, he is probably leaving, so he is not shocked this time.

[riccoar]

Gafford will be slated a center/forward.  Not a traditional center.  His jump shot needs work.

[Hawg Red]

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2018-picks-order-cavs-bulls-knicks-trae-young-marvin-bagley-iii-luka-doncic-deandre-ayton/2khdk5d15lgt16sdln66qti01

#17 in Sporting News' latest mock.

It's happening, folks.

[Hawg Red]

Every center, starter or backup  will eat his lunch....

Dumb.

[TNhawgfan]

Every center, starter or backup  will eat his lunch....

He won't play right away. In fact, I could definitely see him refining his game in the D league. No one said his game is ready. We said it would be financially stupid to stay if he's a first rounder

[hogsanity]

He won't play right away. In fact, I could definitely see him refining his game in the D league. No one said his game is ready. We said it would be financially stupid to stay if he's a first rounder

If he leaves and gets drafted, he will get drafted not on what he can do next season, but on what he can do starting in the 19-20 season after a year in a NBA system. He will also get drafted by someone in the hope he turns into something really good AND to keep someone else from getting him and turning him into something really good.

[Beaverfever]

If he leaves and gets drafted, he will get drafted not on what he can do next season, but on what he can do starting in the 19-20 season after a year in a NBA system. He will also get drafted by someone in the hope he turns into something really good AND to keep someone else from getting him and turning him into something really good.

This is my point.  He's absolutely at least a year from being able to step on the floor in the NBA.  Most NBA franchises don't want to spend first round picks on guys that they have to put on the shelf for a year or more.  The good thing is that the teams picking at the middle/end of the first round are generally good franchises that aren't as desperate and can be trusted to develop his skills.  I would go if I had a guaranteed contract.  He'd be behind the curve with his peers but either way you're going to have to work your ass off to get a second contract.  The first contract sets you up for life if you're smart with your money.  Being a lottery pick sets your family up for life if you're smart with your money.  This year's draft will be top heavy which is a good unless you want to be a top 5 pick.  I'm not sure how next year's draft is shaping up. 

[99toLife]

This is my point.  He's absolutely at least a year from being able to step on the floor in the NBA.  Most NBA franchises don't want to spend first round picks on guys that they have to put on the shelf for a year or more.  The good thing is that the teams picking at the middle/end of the first round are generally good franchises that aren't as desperate and can be trusted to develop his skills.  I would go if I had a guaranteed contract.  He'd be behind the curve with his peers but either way you're going to have to work your ass off to get a second contract.  The first contract sets you up for life if you're smart with your money.  Being a lottery pick sets your family up for life if you're smart with your money.  This year's draft will be top heavy which is a good unless you want to be a top 5 pick.  I'm not sure how next year's draft is shaping up.

You are correct as a 1st rounder, but he won't come close to a lottery pick. 

[Hawg Red]

You are correct as a 1st rounder, but he won't come close to a lottery pick.

After about the 11th pick, guys like Gafford are definitely in the mix for those last 2-3 lottery spots. But there isn't something magical that separates the 14th pick (last lottery pick) from the 15th pick (first non-lottery pick). It's just team preference at that point. NBA teams will go for the difference-makers first (Gafford is not in this group) and when those run out, they'll go with best fit or best potential. He's in play as a late lottery pick, it would appear, but I would not bet on him being one. He is, however, much closer than you claim. At least here in mid-February he is.

[texas tush hog]

Gafford will be evaluated by the NBA gurus and not the sportwiters, and they will tell him where he will be drafted, just like Macon and Barford last year. I'm willing to wait for the real experts to make their judgements and accept their decisions and so be it. I am not one that wants Mike to fail so badly that I wish for Daniel to make a bad choice ala Scotty Thurman and ruin his future. I know many of you want Mike to fail so badly that you want Daniel to leave before he is ready. Daniel is enjoying his college experience and the decision is his, so why can't you guys just let the chips fall where they may.

[hawgmasta]

I've seen some people saying he would be riding the bench or in the d-league, well. . . Your still getting paid handsomely to do that.

[texas tush hog]

I've seen some people saying he would be riding the bench or in the d-league, well. . . Your still getting paid handsomely to do that.

I'm sure he can make that decision after a pre draft NBA evaluation and decide along with his family as did Bobby Portis.

[texas tush hog]

He looked good tonight against nobody. If he does the same against the size A&M and Kentucky throw at him, we might lose him. He looks like he's having a lot of fun and I'm having fun watching him. The potential mixed blessing is that we can go much farther with him playing well, but the better he plays the more likely he's gone. I really think he could use another year, but if the money is right he probably has to go.

I think he is having fun. The difference in 8th pick and 21st pick is 4 to 5 million dollars the first year and 6 to 8 million dollars the second year. If he is going to drop out of the first round it could cost him $10 million or more. The difference Reggie Chaney could make next year could make him millions.

[Hawg Red]

I think he is having fun. The difference in 8th pick and 21st pick is 4 to 5 million dollars the first year and 6 to 8 million dollars the second year. If he is going to drop out of the first round it could cost him $10 million or more. The difference Reggie Chaney could make next year could make him millions.

Where did you get your numbers?

2017 #8 pick (Frank Nitilikina) - $3,501,120 salary 1st year; $4,155,720 2nd year
2017 #21 pick (Terrance Ferguson) - $1,785,000 salary 1st year; $2,118,840 2nd year

Difference: $1,716,120 1st year; $2,036,880 2nd year

The difference in salary for the first two years COMBINED is less than 4 million dollars. Not that that is a small amount, but it illustrates how badly misinformed your claim was.

[Hawg Red]

Gafford will be evaluated by the NBA gurus and not the sportwiters, and they will tell him where he will be drafted, just like Macon and Barford last year. I'm willing to wait for the real experts to make their judgements and accept their decisions and so be it. I am not one that wants Mike to fail so badly that I wish for Daniel to make a bad choice ala Scotty Thurman and ruin his future. I know many of you want Mike to fail so badly that you want Daniel to leave before he is ready. Daniel is enjoying his college experience and the decision is his, so why can't you guys just let the chips fall where they may.

If you don't think NBA gurus are giving Jonathan Givony insight into where players like Gafford are valued right now, you're clueless.

[hoglady]

Gafford will be evaluated by the NBA gurus and not the sportwiters, and they will tell him where he will be drafted, just like Macon and Barford last year. I'm willing to wait for the real experts to make their judgements and accept their decisions and so be it. I am not one that wants Mike to fail so badly that I wish for Daniel to make a bad choice ala Scotty Thurman and ruin his future. I know many of you want Mike to fail so badly that you want Daniel to leave before he is ready. Daniel is enjoying his college experience and the decision is his, so why can't you guys just let the chips fall where they may.

+1 - best and most rational post in this thread.

[Hawg Red]

+1 - best and most rational post in this thread.

It was misinformed before the end of the first sentence, hoglady.

[hoglady]

It was misinformed before the end of the first sentence, hoglady.

Basically what he's saying is everyone's kind of getting ahead of themselves.
Gafford will get NBA feedback after the season and his decision should be made off that information - not a mock draft by a sportswriter.  Sounds pretty rational to me.

[Hawg Red]

Basically what he's saying is everyone's kind of getting ahead of themselves.
Gafford will get NBA feedback after the season and his decision should be made off that information - not a mock draft by a sportswriter.  Sounds pretty rational to me.

I guess I'm searching for where anyone said he should make a decision right now? We're all just operating on the *informed* information we have available to us right now. It's just like looking at Bracketology. It's just a snapshot of where things are right now. The "mock draft" by a "sportswriter" comment is poor awareness on your part (and the previous poster) if we're talking about Jonathan Givony of ESPN (formerly founded and ran DraftExpress). Very, very plugged in with NBA people and that's how he was about to be acquired by ESPN. He's basically the Adrian Wojnarowski of the NBA draft. So if he is projecting Gafford in that 14-18 range, you can safely assume that is the chatter right now. But just like with the NCAA tournament projects with Bracketology, things are constantly evolving. Is it irrational to discuss where the Hogs stand in the NCAA tournament picture right now?

[pignparadise]

Don't think he will rise enough to be a lottery pick this year. Lottery picks if not by trade are for teams who didn't make playoffs.  They need someone who is going to play now . Now he could be easy a first round pick to a good team who has time to develop him. If I was him I would go. No guarantees he would be in all that better position next year. And a whole new set of one and dones hits the market each year..

[311Hog]

Watching the game last night you can definitely sense or feel an uptick in the "Hype" surrounding Gafford.  He is playing really well, but even with that you can see some of the flaws in his game, FT shooting foul issues etc. but man that raw ability shines so bright.

If he, macon, and barford carry this team to a deep run in the big dance i could see him leaving which would be a pretty significant blow to the program in terms of front court players for next year, but for marketing and PR it would be a boon.

That being said Darious and Gabe give me hope those two are coming on.  I just really really wish Garland could play.

[hoglady]

Watching the game last night you can definitely sense or feel an uptick in the "Hype" surrounding Gafford.  He is playing really well, but even with that you can see some of the flaws in his game, FT shooting foul issues etc. but man that raw ability shines so bright.

If he, macon, and barford carry this team to a deep run in the big dance i could see him leaving which would be a pretty significant blow to the program in terms of front court players for next year, but for marketing and PR it would be a boon.

That being said Darious and Gabe give me hope those two are coming on.  I just really really wish Garland could play.

You can tell Gafford's been working on his FT shot - the trajectory of his shot looked different last night.
Still a work in progress.

[311Hog]

You can tell Gafford's been working on his FT shot - the trajectory of his shot looked different last night.
Still a work in progress.

oh yeah definitely, we shot FT bad as a team heh.  I mean Gafford strangely enough still doesn't seem to get the respect from the coaches, i mean maybe that was coach speak from Kennedy but he was saying "you are being pushed around by a freshman with 2 fouls etc." it sounded disrespectful.

[sadhogfan]

Selfishly, I would like Gafford to come back, because I am a Hog fan, and that would be good for our team.

I don't know about his family situation; if they are in desperate financial straits, then by all means, go make money and take care of your family.

If they are not, however, and all of this is simply a cool calculation of total earnings potential over the course of a career, I think that is a truly poor (but very, very 21st century American) way to look at life.

When Dan is 75, I think a year as the undisputed leader of his college team, back-to-back NCAAT trips, SEC POY honors, being an All-American, being a lottery pick, etc. (all of which I think are possible for him) would be considerably more meaningful than just additional money in what I assume will be an already healthy bank account.

Just another perspective. The NBA will still be there, but these other opportunities are never available again.

[hoglady]

oh yeah definitely, we shot FT bad as a team heh.  I mean Gafford strangely enough still doesn't seem to get the respect from the coaches, i mean maybe that was coach speak from Kennedy but he was saying "you are being pushed around by a freshman with 2 fouls etc." it sounded disrespectful.

Kennedy just told them - Garford isn't going to play defense with those 2 fouls, he's just going to take up space - so take it to him. I don't know - I didn't really take that as disrespect - just pushing them to force Gafford into another foul or give up an easy shot.

[311Hog]

Kennedy just told them - Garford isn't going to play defense with those 2 fouls, he's just going to take up space - so take it to him. I don't know - I didn't really take that as disrespect - just pushing them to force Gafford into another foul or give up an easy shot.

oh there were two times that Kennedy was "mic'd up" that he was talking about Gafford specifically.  One was as you said letting his bigs know that Gafford has 2 PF and won't do anything to get a 3rd.  The other was in the 2nd half when the Hogs were just dumping it down to Gafford every time down the floor and he was killing them inside.  he was yelling "you are getting pushed around by a freshman".

[Hog Pharm]

oh yeah definitely, we shot FT bad as a team heh.  I mean Gafford strangely enough still doesn't seem to get the respect from the coaches, i mean maybe that was coach speak from Kennedy but he was saying "you are being pushed around by a freshman with 2 fouls etc." it sounded disrespectful.

That's not disrespect. He was telling his team what any smart coach would. Go at the guy in foul trouble because he's going to try not to foul. Or he does and you foul him out.

[hawgball40]

oh yeah definitely, we shot FT bad as a team heh.  I mean Gafford strangely enough still doesn't seem to get the respect from the coaches, i mean maybe that was coach speak from Kennedy but he was saying "you are being pushed around by a freshman with 2 fouls etc." it sounded disrespectful.

go take your anti depressants and logout with this L.

[311Hog]

go take your anti depressants and logout with this L.

read the follow up post lol and you know where you can stick the L.

[hawgball40]

read the follow up post lol and you know where you can stick the L.

You can't even be a decent human being and admit you were wrong. That's sad b