Spring Weather Thread

[NVRyield]

Hello Hog fans, now that winter is moving on and spring is in the air, I wanted to share some weather info for you. 
Here is the latest from the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center. 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 5
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   300 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
     CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
     NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
   NORTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF POTEAU
   OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 21Z TO 22Z
   TIME FRAME ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
   MOVE GENERALLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...WITH A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN
   PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
   NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 25030.

[NVRyield]

Todd Yakoubian ‏@KATV_Weather  32m32 minutes ago
It's March 24th & there has not been a single severe thunderstorm or tornado watch issued anywhere in the country so far this month. #arwx

I believe this is the latest March watch issued since 1970 per NWC SPC. 

Also GO HOGS :razorback:!

[hellwonthaveme]

I wont trust this info until my boy Mike Heath weighs in on it. He is the greatest weatherman I have ever known...

In all seriousness, that is weird the country hasn't had a single severe storm watch in March...

Weird times.

PRJ

[Torqued pork]

A few weeks ago my yard was a glacier. Today I mowed.

[phadedhawg]

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Washington-The-new-Tornado-Alley-Not-really-297304791.html

Our local weatherman wrote a blog about the lack of severe weather back home.

[NVRyield]

I wont trust this info until my boy Mike Heath weighs in on it. He is the greatest weatherman I have ever known...

In all seriousness, that is weird the country hasn't had a single severe storm watch in March...

Weird times.

PRJ

Here is the statement/pic regarding the watch PRJ...

[NVRyield]

Storms appear to be weakening in northern Arkansas.  Except for some rotation headed just south of Marshall.  Hopefully nightime temps will calm everything down, at least in the north.
Those in LR right now should start seeing pretty good lightning to the north.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Storms appear to be weakening in northern Arkansas.  Except for some rotation headed just south of Marshall.  Hopefully nightime temps will calm everything down, at least in the north.
Those in LR right now should start seeing pretty good lightning to the north.

Appreciate you keeping everyone apprised of changing weather conditions.

[hellwonthaveme]

Mike Heath!!!!!

PRJ

[NVRyield]

Some rotation just south of Yellville.  Hail included.

[NVRyield]

Mike Heath!!!!!

PRJ

Tell Mike to come bail me out PRJ, gotta get 4 kids to bed:)

[hellwonthaveme]

Tell Mike to come bail me out PRJ, gotta get 4 kids to bed:)

LOL.....He is lurking I am sure....Him or Shad.

PRJ

[tusksincolorado]

Todd Yakoubian ‏@KATV_Weather  32m32 minutes ago
It’s March 24th & there has not been a single severe thunderstorm or tornado watch issued anywhere in the country so far this month. #arwx

I believe this is the latest March watch issued since 1970 per NWC SPC. 

Also GO HOGS :razorback:!

I miss Ray Winder....

[NVRyield]

LOL.....He is lurking I am sure....Him or Shad.

PRJ

If I'm thinking of the same one as you, he has kids and should be coaching or taking care of them as well

[hellwonthaveme]

If I'm thinking of the same one as you, he has kids and should be coaching or taking care of them as well

Yeah....but the dude I am thinking of while he was in the midst of racing his youngsters thru a George Phieffer type practice....when the hint of storms lit on the horizon, he would roll into Jim Cantore mode and teach some severe weather classes.....

PRJ

[NVRyield]

Yeah....but the dude I am thinking of while he was in the midst of racing his youngsters thru a George Phieffer type practice....when the hint of storms lit on the horizon, he would roll into Jim Cantore mode and teach some severe weather classes.....

PRJ

Haha!  We might just be related... Have a good evening PRJ, I'm out unless I see something beforehand

[NVRyield]

Hopefully all vehicles were parked underneath something during this...

[NVRyield]

Check this out...
@WeatherRick: "RT@5NEWSJoe: Large #hail on Beaver Lake near Hickory Creek via Robin Lieutard #ARwx http://t.co/lBT9SFl5VB"

[hellwonthaveme]

Haha!  We might just be related... Have a good evening PRJ, I'm out unless I see something beforehand

You have a good evening also......Cat

PRJ

[NVRyield]

Thursday March 25th per NWC SPC....
SPC AC 251249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN
   OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   SW OK ENE INTO PARTS OF SRN MO AND NRN AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
   FROM PARTS OF N TX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM S CNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE MID-OH VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
   SRN RCKYS...PLNS...AND MS VLY IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING OF RIDGE
   ALONG THE W CST. IN THE PROCESS...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WY/CO
   SHOULD CONTINUE ESE TO WRN KS THIS EVE...AND INTO OK/ERN KS EARLY
   THU...AS HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY REBOUND OVER THE OH VLY IN WAKE OF
   SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OZARKS YESTERDAY. 

   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WY/CO TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS TODAY...REACHING A SRN TX PANHANDLE TO SRN MO
   LINE BY EARLY EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...DIFFUSE WRN END OF FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY SYSTEM WILL REFORM NWWD TODAY...ALLOWING
   MODIFIED GULF AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OK AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS.
   THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS
   TNGT/EARLY THU AS UPR PATTERN FURTHER AMPLIFIES. 

   ...SRN PLNS/OZARKS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
   WEAK LEE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
   SHOULD ELONGATE SLOWLY ENE ACROSS OK AND BECOME A BIT BETTER-DEFINED
   TODAY AS LOW-LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIONALLY TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF THE LOW AND COLD
   FRONT AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...ALONG DRY LINE TRAILING SW FROM THE
   LOW...SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN
   FROM CNTRL OK ENE INTO SE KS/SW MO. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   DEVELOP EWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN MO...AND SW
   ALONG DRY LINE INTO N TX.

   INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY SFC HEATING AND
   LOW-LVL UPLIFT...ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF UPR-LVL FORCING MAY
   ACCOMPANY LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE MOVING E ACROSS NM. WARM SECTOR
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   MAINLY AROUND 60 F AND PW OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
   500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 16C AND STRONG SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD
   YIELD 2000+ J/KG SBCAPE.

   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...45-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30+
   KT SWLY 850 MB JET WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE INCREASING DEGREE
   OF LOW- AND MID-LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
   FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES...SOME OPPORTUNITY
   WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NE OF
   SFC LOW AND NEAR DRY LINE/LOW INTERSECTION.  THESE COULD YIELD A
   COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. 

   AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
   RESULTING SQUALL LINE/QLCS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT IN THE
   PLNS...WITH A DIMINISHING THOUGH STILL NON-ZERO THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND AND HAIL SWD INTO PARTS OF TX. A WIND THREAT
   MAY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NGT EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND
   NRN AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE
   UNDERCUT...AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE.

[NVRyield]

Some pretty impressive tops moving from TX Northeast into Arkansas with convection...

Bottom image is this..
Very low, broadly rotating wall cloud E of Windthorst, TX @TornadoTrackers stream http://tvnweather.com/live  #txwx

[NVRyield]

Storms starting to develop near Joplin/Springfield ...

[NVRyield]

This is a futurecast (not current) but we need to watch for single cells that form out in front of the system. 
Todd Yakoubian ‏@KATV_Weather  4m4 minutes ago
HiRes "Futurecast".  We must watch any individual cells that develop.  This is valid around 5PM #ARWX

[NVRyield]

The NWC Tulsa just released a very detailed and focused update regarding Tornado and Hail probability.

NWS Tulsa ‏@NWStulsa  1h1 hour ago
We have upped our SVR and TOR probs based on latest data. Expect storms to develop in NE OK 3-4 PM. #okwx #arwx

[NVRyield]

UPDATE for Arkansas....Latest discussion from the NWS SPC...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO AND NRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 251830Z - 252030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE NWD RETURN OF
   MODESTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   50S EXTENDING AS FAR N AS PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NW AR. SIMILAR
   MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND VICINITY
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AHEAD OF A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
   THE NW/N. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND RELATED SFC FRONT...WILL
   ADVANCE SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   IN THE MEANTIME...ONGOING CINH -- EVIDENT IN BILLOWS AND STANDING
   WAVE CLOUD FORMATIONS PER VIS IMAGERY -- WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH
   INSOLATION-SUPPORTED DIABATIC SFC HEATING. FURTHERMORE...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING WRN OK AND
   WRN N TX WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SRN FRINGES OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
   ACROSS SWRN MO LOCALLY ENHANCES BAROCLINICITY.

   AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME -- MAINLY ACROSS
   PARTS OF SRN MO -- AND SPREAD EWD/ESEWD. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W
   ACROSS OK WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING.

   WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0-8.5 C/KM ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED
   MOISTURE...MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2500 J/KG WILL EXIST S OF THE SFC
   FRONT. GIVEN 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WITH VECTORS
   ORIENTED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL FRONT/BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
   COMPONENT...INTENSE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO BOWING/LEWP
   SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUPERCELLS ARE SUSTAINED
   PROVIDED BACKED SFC FLOW ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SRH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
   CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED TORNADO RISK MAY BE MITIGATED BY
   /1/ POTENTIALLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE.../2/ LACK OF MORE
   ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...AND /3/ UNDERCUTTING NATURE
   OF THE CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SYNOPTIC FRONT.

   A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR AREAS W OF THIS REGION IS FORTHCOMING
   SHORTLY.

   ..COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36939464 37259337 36989170 35609153 35139282 35369427
               35949452 36939464

[razorbackfan4life]

Tornado Warning in Benton County.  Heading towards War Eagle and Eureka Springs

[NVRyield]

Plenty of rotation

[Wayne Watson]

Tornado Warning in Benton County.  Heading towards War Eagle and Eureka Springs

You know the sad thing is...my phone alerted me several minutes before the news did.

[NVRyield]

Please notify anyone in the warned area's.
Also we have plenty more coming, just stay aware going into the evening.

[WorfHog]

Driving down 43 through Maysville, hit probably dime sized hail and strong winds about an hour ago. Not a drop falling in Fayetteville yet. 

[NVRyield]

You know the sad thing is...my phone alerted me several minutes before the news did.

With today's technology, that will be the norm.  We just have to alert loved ones when we are alerted ourselves. 
I'll say this, I've got a few more hours to work, just use all media outlets to stay up to date.  I'll chime in when I can, but passing the word by text and phone to people you know aren't in front of a tv will help tremendously during dangerous weather.  Stay safe Hogville

[NVRyield]

Reported tornado on the ground..
Everyone close to this path pay attention

[NVRyield]

Calls for people in Tulsa to take cover... Tornado on the ground.
Also..
@KATV_Weather: Intense rotation moving towards Berryville and Green Forest in NW Arkansas.  Take cover NOW! #ARWX http://t.co/t1vk9QrLTe

Update!  Reports of half mile wide tornado headed for downtown Tulsa.  Please take cover

[NVRyield]

@AbimaelTiempoPR: "@weatherchannel: Rain-wrapped #tornado just south of Berryville, Ark. at 5:47pm CDT. Heading east at 40 mph. #ARwx http://t.co/JQdZYJcrII"

[DLUXHOG]

Praying all of you in NWA are safe from this storm, and that damage, if any, is minimal.  Please stay alert.

[Oklahawg]

Storm moving over Tulsa Metro has produced multiple warnings. Local media is doing a nice job of freaking out.

The Tulsa TV folks did not show a hail core in east Tulsa...that produced a 4.25-inch hailstone.

Pretty wicked stuff, actually.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Storm moving over Tulsa Metro has produced multiple warnings. Local media is doing a nice job of freaking out.

The Tulsa TV folks did not show a hail core in east Tulsa...that produced a 4.25-inch hailstone.

Pretty wicked stuff, actually.

Yes, they are. Nonetheless, I hope all of my northeastern Oklahoma Hogs will keep their heads down as this storm comes through.

Had sirens go off in Broken Arrow, then an hour later, sirens again, indicating an all clear, right?

But then we now have the worst weather so far coming through and no sirens. Go figure.

[Boardon Hamsay]

New tornado warning (spotter and NWS confirmed on the ground), south of Locust Grove, near Peggs, OK. Tracking due east  just south of Highway 412 at 36mph.

[Boardon Hamsay]

Here's a shot of the southern end of the cell that came through Rogers this afternoon. Two hail cores associated with this one. I only saw pea to marble size but hear it was larger once it got out to Beaver Lake.

PS. Sorry for the rotated view....I blame my phone.

[aar0n]

Yeeesh, looks pretty rough up there in Razorback country.  Not a cloud in the sky in Conway right now, although that's going to change later on tonight. 

[aar0n]

Plenty of rotation

What app is this?  I know the discussion comes from Weather Underground, what about the images? 

[Pigsknuckles]

Been a fun evening here in Tulsa. About everyone I know has a legit twister story or pic. No clue as to how many of my guys will show for work tonight. As long as all are safe, it's all good. Dogs hanging close.

[Hogsmo Kramer]

Hate this weather man.

After experiencing what we did in Joplin it has me jumpy as hell.

Thank God we bought a house in NWA with a storm shelter in the garage, it at least helps my nerves a little.

Be safe everyone this stuff is nothing to play with.

[reddogjcss]

Covered ground here in East FAYETTEVILLE with small hail

[hellwonthaveme]

Harrison getting nickel sized hail now....

PRJ

[NVRyield]

What app is this?  I know the discussion comes from Weather Underground, what about the images?

Sorry folks, still working...
RadarScope, might be the best all around app out there.  If you have questions about it I'll try and answer, yet they have great support.  Mostly when I'm on the run, I get info from RScope and its almost to the minute.  Can be handy if your close (from experience)

[Oklahawg]

Sorry folks, still working...
RadarScope, might be the best all around app out there.  If you have questions about it I'll try and answer, yet they have great support.  Mostly when I'm on the run, I get info from RScope and its almost to the minute.  Can be handy if your close (from experience)

For those in NE OK or along the OK/AR border...the "News on 6" (KOTV in Tulsa) has a nice weather ap with a good radar as well.

[grayhawg]

We are having heavy rain here in Crawford County, no satelite signal but accu weather has a good radar on their website. looks like if it don't change we have 3 or 4 more rounds tonight.

[NVRyield]

@jloganwxguy: Wow!! "@ShawnRTV6: VIDEO: Power flashes seen earlier in Moore, OK as #tornado was in progress
https://t.co/QQ9KCGD2uy
#OKwx"

For those in Moore, OK, our prayers are still with you everytime a storm comes close...

[NVRyield]

We are having heavy rain here in Crawford County, no satelite signal but accu weather has a good radar on their website. looks like if it don't change we have 3 or 4 more rounds tonight.

Squal line developing north and south of Ozark right now.  Let's hope the evening will calm things down.  There's still more activity out west, but let's hope it dies down