Welcome to Hogville!      Do Not Sell My Personal Information

OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 11 Guests are viewing this topic.

SPAL

MLB:
Indians +103   3 units
U 7.5   1 unit

NHL
Colorado/Anaheim o5.5.  1 unit
Toronto/Philadelphia o5.5 1 unit

SPAL

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on September 28, 2013, 09:31:03 am
beach, buying the hook is a small bit of insurance to make sure you don't lose by half a point.


ALWAYS buy the hook.

This also applies to betting dogs in a push situation . If a + line is 3, ,7, 10, or 14 I will always buy a half so not to push.

 

ur

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 30, 2013, 09:49:01 pm
I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.
Finally found a consolidated injury report site.
http://www.sportsbook.ag/statfeed/statfeed.php?page=cfb/injury

OldCoot

I'm busted thru october I think.  I bet the bank on that NFL pick couple of weeks ago  trying to break even.

Hawgndaaz


SPAL


McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 02, 2013, 08:27:15 pm
FYI, Jeff was banned for a few weeks.

Just 10 days, but he asked me to let everyone know he wasn't hiding. Don't know if he will come back or not, but I've at least asked him to stay active in our thread here. He said he will. From what he understands, it was for telling someone that the game was on telemundo, then saying he was being an ass. Who knows, but it is what it is.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

Crap!  That's akin to our thread losing Brandon Allen for a couple of weeks.  We have some quality players here, but there's still a bit of a drop-off to our back-up guru's. Hurry back Jeff! You will be missed.

DadVader1


SPAL

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on October 02, 2013, 09:53:01 pm
Just 10 days, but he asked me to let everyone know he wasn't hiding. Don't know if he will come back or not, but I've at least asked him to stay active in our thread here. He said he will. From what he understands, it was for telling someone that the game was on telemundo, then saying he was being an ass. Who knows, but it is what it is.


That's exactly what it was and it's crap. Basically he labeled himself an a**. Much worse goes unnoticed.

SPAL

Missed on my MLB PLAY but hit the under.

Went 1-1 in NHL moving me to 2-1 YTD


Big night for investing Thursday night. Lots if cash to be made. 

McHogLovin

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 02, 2013, 10:55:30 pm
That's exactly what it was and it's crap. Basically he labeled himself an a**. Much worse goes unnoticed.

Jeff was banned for not being a Bielemer.  Plain and simple.  And lame.

 

widespreadsooie


McKdaddy

Quote from: McHogLovin on October 03, 2013, 02:14:31 am
Jeff was banned for not being a Bielemer.  Plain and simple.  And lame.

He's been vocal in his dislike for the CBB hire. It's not gone unnoticed, and thus he has been on thin ice.

I won't take this any further, because I like that our thread has survived 99 pages.....
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

ur

Watch out for this storm in the gulf. May want to look at some unders if games are a washout.

DadVader1

Hopefully, this cordial and profitable thread will survive for years.  In the interest of emergency preparedness, if things go horribly wrong and it disappears, you might come look for a few of us in the Arkansas section of the SEC Rant over on TD.  Widespread and I are both there occasionally, and thanks to their ATS pick'em contest, there are some folks with pretty good records ATS to be found there as well.  As McKdaddy suggests, to reduce the risk of bad things happening, let's keep this non-confrontational, on-topic, and going strong.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on October 02, 2013, 11:27:20 am
Second favorite sport has begun. Base most of my picks off a back-to-back system I've been gathering stats on covering the last two years. Follow some trends on there. 1* = 1 unit, 2* = 2 units, etc. I will tell you whether it's a B2B spreadsheet play or just a normal play.

Spreadsheet Plays 10-2:

Flyers -.5 (+119) -- 1*   L
Flyers -1.5 (+210) -- .5*    L
Leafs @ Flyers O5.5 (-135) -- 1*    L

Last year Leafs were 4-5 in B2B situations (not too bad). However, when those games were on the road they were 2-4. Also, teams that won the first road game of b2b road games went on to lose the second road game 65% of the time. Side note, out of the Leafs 5 losses last year in B2B games, 4 of them came by 2 goals or more (hence why i'm taking a shot at the Flyers -1.5).

In regards to totals, 6 of the 9 Leafs B2B games last year went O5.5 goals.


Normal Plays 10-2:

Redwings -.5 (-115) -- 1*   W

horrible start to the season... 1-4 for -1.5 units

DadVader1

At least you had the discipline to start with small plays so that you didn't dig yourself into much of a hole early.  Good bankroll management.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

im on that site as well.. my handle is

yumyum sauce

insert jokes here<            >

widespreadsooie

Saturday Card:

2 units:

Vandy/MIZ o56
SC/KY u55.5
Cincy/USF u48.5
LSU -9.5

1 unit:

Baylor -27.5
AZ St. -5.5 (Don't really know why I took this, tailed a friend)
TX Tech -17.5
TT/KU u54

It's almost guaranteed I add something for tomorrow night, and maybe a couple more for Sat. I'll try to get 'em posted if so. 

SPAL

Thursday night football:

Texas -7   3 units

Browns -3. 1 unit


widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 03, 2013, 01:09:25 pm
Thursday night football:

Texas -7   3 units

Browns -3. 1 unit



What makes you like Texas? I read up on that game for about an hour this morning and couldn't find a play anywhere, not even on the total.

 

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 03, 2013, 09:02:34 am
At least you had the discipline to start with small plays so that you didn't dig yourself into much of a hole early.  Good bankroll management.

hockey a very long season.  with plays almost every day.  easy to get in a big hole quick.  have to avoid that.

DadVader1

Iowa State hit in one or two small trends with decent winning percentages, but not enough data to warrant much confidence.  Also, the power systems have been bad at picking Iowa State games and below average at picking TX games.  I'd say slight lean Iowa State, but I'm sitting that one out.

Similar to above, Utah hit in one or two small trends with decent winning percentages, but not enough data to warrant much confidence.  The power systems have been well below average in picking Utah games, a little above average in picking UCLA games.  The systems with the best records for both are fairly evenly split.  I'd say slight lean Utah, but I'm sitting that one out too.

DadVader1

Here's what I've done so far.  I'll probably add a few units between now and Sat:

3 units each on:

BOWLING GREEN -24½-120 (B+½)
VIRGINIA TECH -7-125 (B+½)
NEW MEXICO -8-120 (B+½)
TOLEDO -19½-120 (B+½)
UTEP +1½-120 (B+½)
STANFORD -6½-118
BUFFALO U -13½-110
OKLAHOMA -9½-125 (B+½)


widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 03, 2013, 01:43:36 pm
Here's what I've done so far.  I'll probably add a few units between now and Sat:

3 units each on:

BOWLING GREEN -24½-120 (B+½)
VIRGINIA TECH -7-125 (B+½)
NEW MEXICO -8-120 (B+½)
TOLEDO -19½-120 (B+½)
UTEP +1½-120 (B+½)
STANFORD -6½-118
BUFFALO U -13½-110
OKLAHOMA -9½-125 (B+½)



That's a good looking card.

DamonBoost

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 03, 2013, 01:43:36 pm
Here's what I've done so far.  I'll probably add a few units between now and Sat:

3 units each on:

BOWLING GREEN -24½-120 (B+½)
VIRGINIA TECH -7-125 (B+½)
NEW MEXICO -8-120 (B+½)
TOLEDO -19½-120 (B+½)
UTEP +1½-120 (B+½)
STANFORD -6½-118
BUFFALO U -13½-110
OKLAHOMA -9½-125 (B+½)


What does (B+1/2) mean?

widespreadsooie


yraciv

I'm pretty high on UCLA at -6 tonight, 3 units.

DadVader1

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2013, 01:58:27 pm
That's a good looking card.

Thanks.  I'm liking that many of my favorite lines got hammered after I made the plays.  I still want 1 or 2 more weeks of data to get good and comfortable and to see if my selection methods can deliver consistent results.  I'm also looking forward to getting Jeff back on here so I can tail his dime plays.

SPAL

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2013, 01:23:32 pm
What makes you like Texas? I read up on that game for about an hour this morning and couldn't find a play anywhere, not even on the total.


It's gonna be a boring game. Neither team will throw the football well. Texas has shown improvement in run defense while Iowa state just isn't very good. I expect texas to force turnovers and win the turnover battle. They are 92-6 under brown when they win the turnover battle.

Basically I expect texas to be more effective on the ground behind gray which will open up big plays in the passing game.

Should be close most of the way.

27-17 texas

SPAL


UAstudent13

I have a lot on the line in picking one of these spreads to roll with this week - What are your thoughts?

Washington +7.5 @ Stanford

Clemson -13.5 @ Syracuse

Louisville -33.5 @ Temple.

Currently going with Stanford at -7.5. Can take dogs or favorites as always.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

Browns -3 hook bought 2units
Western Petrino  -7 2units

widespreadsooie


widespreadsooie


WILL CLINTON

I been following this guy over on therx forums who almost exclusively handles Pac 12 games. Hitting 21-10 so far this year. When he and I agree, I bet.

Oregon 1st half -24.5 3*
Oregon -38.5 2*
UCLA -6 2*
Miami -5.5 1*
Bowling Green -26 1*
Washington St -1 1*
Stanford -7  1*

Looking at a few others. I'm leaning LSU and Ole Miss, but I'm leary that I just hate Auburn too much to have a clear view on the game.

Good Luck to everyone tonight.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

razorbacker231

October 03, 2013, 06:58:40 pm #4940 Last Edit: October 03, 2013, 07:10:57 pm by razorbacker231
Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2013, 01:23:32 pm
What makes you like Texas? I read up on that game for about an hour this morning and couldn't find a play anywhere, not even on the total.
I took both those too.  Tex a little reckless maybe. 
I took WKY tonight as well.

SPAL


SPAL

When did texas hire Paul petrino?

You have a RB who is tearing off runs of at least 6 yards a carry every time he touches it and already has a 40 yard td run. But by all means, sling the ball all over the field with a backup QB.

What am I missing here?

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

SPAL

The NFL...

The browns suck. The Vikings should easily cover 6 at home, I play it that way and Hoyer comes outta nowhere and lights up the scoreboard. So the browns are hot with Hoyer and they should easily cover 3 at home against the hapless bills. Right?

No, Hoyer goes down and it's back to typical browns football. Just stupid. 

SPAL

Why is texas so hell bent on throwing the ball all over the field? Seriously?

This is why bettors lose games they have no business losing? There is at most 7 in the box. I just don't understand this. You can't keep putting your backup QB in 3rd and long situations. This is just silly.

SPAL

Cover 1 from the 3, slinging it all over the field, taking an entire half before you realize you need to spy the QB on 3rd down.

If brown and the entire staff isn't let go after this game, texas isn't committed to winning. This is unreal.

SPAL

Look what freaking happens when you run the freaking ball. Not rocket science

SPAL

Right back to throwing it all over the field again.

DadVader1

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 03, 2013, 10:32:01 am
im on that site as well.. my handle is

yumyum sauce

insert jokes here<            >

I'm LRHogFan there ... same hog pic as avatar.  Currently at 67% in the Rant SEC ATS contest, which is much better than I was doing at about this time last year.  I'm hoping to close strong again this year as the spreadsheet adds data.  Would love to break 70% this year.