Mapping out Arkansas' path to the NCAA Tourney

[JayBell]

The SEC's bubble teams keep playing themselves out of the tournament.  Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee have all earned wins this season to put themselves into the conversation, only to flop the next time out.

Two of those teams still have to play Kentucky, three of them still have to play South Carolina and Arkansas has to go to Florida.  All of them have remaining games against each other too, so they're just going to keep cannibalizing themselves until the end of the season.

[daprospecta]

We are the second team on the last four in as of this morning. Still got a chance.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Atlhogfan1]

The SEC's bubble teams keep playing themselves out of the tournament.  Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee have all earned wins this season to put themselves into the conversation, only to flop the next time out.

Two of those teams still have to play Kentucky, three of them still have to play South Carolina and Arkansas has to go to Florida.  All of them have remaining games against each other too, so they're just going to keep cannibalizing themselves until the end of the season.

The rest of the bubble is ** too.

[JayBell]

The rest of the bubble is ** too.

And just like every other year, the SEC is still worse.  The number of teams in the top 40 RPI:
ACC: 8
B1G: 5
Big XII: 5
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
SEC: 3

Top 50:
ACC: 9
B1G: 6
Big XII: 6
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 5
SEC: 5

Top 60:
ACC: 11
B1G: 7
Big XII: 7
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 6
SEC: 7

The bubble may be terrible, but the SEC is still behind.  As others have pointed out, the 40s is where at-large SEC teams tend to get left out.  That's not going to change this year.  The conference's bubble teams have to do more to play their way in.

[LRHawg]

I'm still sticking to my guns, if we somehow make the tournament, then I want to keep Mike. If he fails, then he will have had every opportunity this year to show his quality and get us to the tournament. Due to good RPI manipulation, we have a great chance this year, we just have to take care of business. I'm disappointed so far with the bad losses, but will choose to look at the bigger picture.

[Atlhogfan1]

And just like every other year, the SEC is still worse.  The number of teams in the top 40 RPI:
ACC: 8
B1G: 5
Big XII: 5
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
SEC: 3

Top 50:
ACC: 9
B1G: 6
Big XII: 6
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 5
SEC: 5

Top 60:
ACC: 11
B1G: 7
Big XII: 7
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 6
SEC: 7

The bubble may be terrible, but the SEC is still behind.  As others have pointed out, the 40s is where at-large SEC teams tend to get left out.  That's not going to change this year.  The conference's bubble teams have to do more to play their way in.

We don't.  We just have to win 4 games. 

You add up your top 50 it = 36 teams.  Take away the 6 auto bids and it is 30 teams for 36 at large spots.  A10, St Mary's/Gon, AAC, MVC going to have more than 6 in contention?

A couple of bids maybe, maybe, could be taken by Ill St and MTSU losing in their conf tourney finals if Ill St and MTSU were to still get in. 

[JayBell]

We don't.  We just have to win 4 games. 

You add up your top 50 it = 36 teams.  Take away the 6 auto bids and it is 30 teams for 36 at large spots.  A10, St Mary's/Gon, AAC, MVC going to have more than 6 in contention?

A couple of bids maybe, maybe, could be taken by Ill St and MTSU losing in their conf tourney finals if Ill St and MTSU were to still get in.

The OP gave you the numbers you need to know.  South Carolina was left out last year at 43.  If Arkansas goes 4-2, their current RPI of 44 will not get much better, if at all.

[Raymond Zorback]

The OP gave you the numbers you need to know.  South Carolina was left out last year at 43.  If Arkansas goes 4-2, their current RPI of 44 will not get much better, if at all.

According to the RPI Wizard, if we go 4-2 with losses to SC and Florida, our RPI would be about 33.

[Atlhogfan1]

The OP gave you the numbers you need to know.  South Carolina was left out last year at 43.  If Arkansas goes 4-2, their current RPI of 44 will not get much better, if at all.

Poor comparison.  We played a higher quality of cupcakes in the OOC.  The committee sent a message to SC regarding their NC scheduling. 

[Adam Stokes]

Mock brackets are popping out every day from prestigious analysts to joe schmo bloggers. I enjoy this time of the year because as Arkansas does its oft bubble dance, there become a lot more teams to root for and against, making each night have enjoyable games to watch. If you are in the group with the "we just need to win, doesn't matter what other teams do" or "doesn't matter until March," yes you are absolutely right, and you are also a killjoy, so keep it out of this thread por favor.

So far today there have been 33 brackets updated through this morning, and here is the bubble line among those teams and where they are placing Arkansas. All teams left off at least one bracket and left on one bracket are included, along with opponents for the teams that are playing today.

32 Kansas State
32 California
32 Michigan St
32 TCU
32 Miami FL
31 Syracuse - vs #4 Louisville
30 Michigan
28 Wichita State*
24 Arkansas
22 Wake Forest
19 Seton Hall
18 Illinois State
--------- Bubble Line ---------
13 Marquette
12 Tennessee
12 Georgia Tech
7 Clemson
5 Rhode Island
5 Houston
3 Indiana
3 Georgetown
2 Providence
1 Georgia
1 Providence
1 Auburn

Bonus
0 Texas Tech - vs #6 Baylor

*Wichita State is top in its conference, so they only affect us if they lose their conference tourney.

Doesn't look like there is too much action today, but Syracuse would be approaching lock territory with a win.

I'll see if I can update this daily, and will do so as long as Arkansas has a remote chance of gaining an at-large bid. Also hoping this will keep numerous threads from popping up every time Lunardi or Jerry Palm move us up or down a seed.

Other RPI games worth watching, along with their chance of winning:

89% UT-Arlington vs UALR

[hogsanity]

Poor comparison.  We played a higher quality of cupcakes in the OOC.  The committee sent a message to SC regarding their NC scheduling. 

Here is a question, the Hogs go 4-2, with losses at SC and FLA, then go 0-1 in the sect. Does that kill their ncaat hopes?

[Atlhogfan1]

Here is a question, the Hogs go 4-2, with losses at SC and FLA, then go 0-1 in the sect. Does that kill their ncaat hopes?

Doubt it kills them.  But it would depend on conf tourneys(bids stolen) and how the rest of the bubble teams in our area of the debate have done.  Then it comes down to us being compared to those last few.

Last season for instance with SC, it came down to SC vs Tulsa.  Would it come down to us and one or two other teams and what would be the deciding factor?

[Kevin]

Here is a question, the Hogs go 4-2, with losses at SC and FLA, then go 0-1 in the sect. Does that kill their ncaat hopes?

yes

[Raymond Zorback]

Here is a question, the Hogs go 4-2, with losses at SC and FLA, then go 0-1 in the sect. Does that kill their ncaat hopes?

I just ran the simulation with Bama as our opponent in the SEC tournament, and our RPI would be about 39.  We'd be sweating on selection Sunday but we would likely get in.

[cardsNhogs]

I have no idea how this team is even on the bubble. We have beat NOBODY and have losses to very bad teams. We have been blown out by the better teams we have played.

[hogsanity]

I have no idea how this team is even on the bubble. We have beat NOBODY and have losses to very bad teams. We have been blown out by the better teams we have played.

RPI manipulation in the ooc schedule ( and no I have no problem with it ). They played a lot of teams that, if they do what they were predicted to do in their leagues, were "good" wins without much danger of losing. They were cupcakes, but a more upscale cupcake. Teams like UTA that were supposed to win the conference, or IUPUFW or whatever they were, went out and beat Indiana ( although that is less impressive with every Indiana loss ).

[Adam Stokes]

Poor comparison.  We played a higher quality of cupcakes in the OOC.  The committee sent a message to SC regarding their NC scheduling. 

Yep, last year SC had a non-conference RPI and SOS of 28 & 247, respectively. Ours is looking like it'll finish 18 & 59.

[gmarv]

Yep, last year SC had a non-conference RPI and SOS of 28 & 247, respectively. Ours is looking like it'll finish 18 & 59.

how hard is that to understand, people can bad mouth our schedule this year all they want.S.C. ooc schedule last year was just way worse than ours is this year.

[ShadowHawg]

Here is a question, the Hogs go 4-2, with losses at SC and FLA, then go 0-1 in the sect. Does that kill their ncaat hopes?

Nope. There actually some models that say they could actually MAKE the tournament like that. They would be squarely on the bubble so it might not even be 50/50. But it certainly would not help their chances.

It's going to be tough for them to even go 4-2, IMO.

[Youngsta71701]

http://arkansas.247sports.com/Article/Arkansas-Razorbacks-still-have-path-to-NCAA-Tournament-51253999?utm_source=247Sports%20Newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=170213_082924_Arkansas%20Razorbacks&utm_content=Image

[ShadowHawg]

http://arkansas.247sports.com/Article/Arkansas-Razorbacks-still-have-path-to-NCAA-Tournament-51253999?utm_source=247Sports%20Newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=170213_082924_Arkansas%20Razorbacks&utm_content=Image

Nice link. Thanks.

[Youngsta71701]

Here is a question, the Hogs go 4-2, with losses at SC and FLA, then go 0-1 in the sect. Does that kill their ncaat hopes?

If we go 4-2 down the stretch with those two being the losses I think we get in. But it wouldn't hurt to win a couple of games in the SEC tournament just to be sure. Have to play to win every game no matter what. Can't get relaxed. We don't have much margin for error.

[3kgthog]

I see the committee looking past our RPI because we have no wins against any other NCAA tournament team. Whatever goodwill Jeff long as built up he needs to start cashing that in today. The committee has hinted this year that the RPI is flawed and I think in their subconscious they're already going to look deeper into it than just the number.

[JayBell]

how hard is that to understand, people can bad mouth our schedule this year all they want.S.C. ooc schedule last year was just way worse than ours is this year.

I said earlier in the year that I thought Arkansas could still get in with a regular season record of 21-10 specifically because of the way they manipulated the RPI with scheduling.  I might have been wrong, but it was predicated on the idea of Arkansas winning the games they are supposed to, losing the games they are supposed to and then slipping up in a few close games to similarly-ranked opponents.  Losing to Missouri, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt threw that all out of whack.  Losing to Oklahoma State and Minnesota the way they did made matters even worse.

[JayBell]

I see the committee looking past our RPI because we have no wins against any other NCAA tournament team. Whatever goodwill Jeff long as built up he needs to start cashing that in today. The committee has hinted this year that the RPI is flawed and I think in their subconscious they're already going to look deeper into it than just the number.

This is a good point, but at least 2-3 of those 11 non-conference wins will probably be over NCAA Tournament teams.  They may have to qualify through their conference tournaments, but they will be there.  And Houston is on a 5-game win streak.  So much of it is about how you finish the season.

[rljjr]

As stated by another esteemed poster in a different thread, the bubble is the most dangerous place to live. Get a few Cinderellas winning conference tournaments and we go poof -- even if we go 4-2.

[Biggus Piggus]

Chris Low of ESPN (SEC reporter) has a weekend radio show. Yesterday they discussed SEC bubble teams. He and his co-host said Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are in. The only bubble teams in their view were Tennessee and Alabama.

They didn't mention Arkansas one time in an entire hour.

[Youngsta71701]

Pitifully weak conference and a fat win total based on lots of cupcakes ought to do it.

Some people are going to complain no matter what. Or we can play the toughest or one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the country and be in the same position as Vanderbilt. Even though we have 7 newcomers. But I'm guessing that's what you want... . Just throw the newcomers to the wolves.

[Raymond Zorback]

Chris Low of ESPN (SEC reporter) has a weekend radio show. Yesterday they discussed SEC bubble teams. He and his co-host said Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are in. The only bubble teams in their view were Tennessee and Alabama.

They didn't mention Arkansas one time in an entire hour.

That's probably why Chris Low doesn't cover basketball.

[daprospecta]

That's probably why Chris Low doesn't cover basketball.

That's probably why Chris Low doesn't cover basketball.

Tennessee is in the last four out at the moment and Alabama, well.  BracketMatrix(which is a culmination of brackets has us in at a 10.11 seed). Lunardi has us in the last four in.  If we can some how just win the games we are favored to win, I think we make it.

[daprospecta]

However, wins over any of those teams won't help Arkansas' resume for a bid. 

False. We go 4-2 down the stretch and get a win over any of those teams in the SEC tourney, we would have 23 wins and would be a lock.

[bhogs05]

I think we will have to go 5-1 down the stretch and win at least 1 in the SEC tourney to make it.  I believe the committee will overlook our inflated RPI and go to quality wins and see we haven't beaten anyone all year.  I think we have to win one of the FL & SC games and also win at least 1 in the SEC tourney to make it.

[hogsanity]

Chris Low of ESPN (SEC reporter) has a weekend radio show. Yesterday they discussed SEC bubble teams. He and his co-host said Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are in. The only bubble teams in their view were Tennessee and Alabama.

They didn't mention Arkansas one time in an entire hour.

That happens when you lose to Mizzu and Vandy back to back ( one at home ).

[Youngsta71701]

Chris Low of ESPN (SEC reporter) has a weekend radio show. Yesterday they discussed SEC bubble teams. He and his co-host said Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are in. The only bubble teams in their view were Tennessee and Alabama.

They didn't mention Arkansas one time in an entire hour.

Do you trust Chris Low or Joe Lunardi? That is the question. I can see Alabama right now not Tennessee. Based on the conference records. Both of their overall records are barely above average.

[Biggus Piggus]

That's probably why Chris Low doesn't cover basketball.

Well, they talked hoop for an hour, so I think he's covering it.

[20gauge]

Jerry Palm has us first 4 out. So its just who you want to believe. None of these guys are the committee and neither are we. I said this on another thread. There is no if we go 4-2 we must go 4-2 or better. 3-3 we are pretty much doomed unless one of those is over one of the two ranked teams we have left. CANNOT lose at home again to a mediocre team. 3-3 it will require a good run in the SECT to overcome, maybe even have to win it or its NIT at best.

[daprospecta]

Jerry Palm has us first 4 out. So its just who you want to believe. None of these guys are the committee and neither are we. I said this on another thread. There is no if we go 4-2 we must go 4-2 or better. 3-3 we are pretty much doomed unless one of those is over one of the two ranked teams we have left. CANNOT lose at home again to a mediocre team. 3-3 it will require a good run in the SECT to overcome, maybe even have to win it or its NIT at best.

I still believe the magic number is 23.

[Atlhogfan1]

I just don't see the justification for this conclusion, Daprospecta.
No quality wins.
(Possibly) No Top 50 wins.

However, we shall see.

The justification would be the committee couldn't find 36 other teams they thought were more deserving. 

[Atlhogfan1]

And in all fairness, given the weakness of the bubble teams this year, you could most definitely be correct on that Atlhogfan1.  At this point in time, this year has the potential for being one of the more suspense filled years for NCAA bids...

Committee has a tough job this year it appears.  Seeding could really get screwed up. 

[zuko]

After the SC game. POW! (bubble bursting

[daprospecta]

After the SC game. POW! (bubble bursting

I don't think so.  Your bubble usually burst  when you lose games you should win or get blown out the water. That is why the Mizz/Vandy game took us from lock to bubble. I don't see USC-E blowing us out honestly. They are a defense first team. I see a low scoring game and I think we keep it close. Explosive teams scare me against this bunch, not slow, methodical, defensive teams. 

[Slater]

After the SC game. POW! (bubble bursting

You will be very sad with an Arkansas win

[OperationRestoreHawgBall]

Updated OP to reflect our current Massey composite rating (not good)

[OperationRestoreHawgBall]

Actually, that is validated by the latest Massey rankings (Tenn on bubble, Ark out).  Bottom line is that this team is talented enough to be solidly in the tourny this year, but apparently don't have the coaching to do so - and when even BO ("Dont criticize coaches") MATTINGLY says something along this line, you know that's not just coming from a "hater". This is why we are sweating about the bubble when we shouldn't even be.

The composite recruiting ranking for last years class was 29. What do we have to show for it? Playing ourselves out of the Bubble at the end of the year - that's what we have to show for it! The facts are clear - this is a disappointing year that invites a reckoning.

Chris Low of ESPN (SEC reporter) has a weekend radio show. Yesterday they discussed SEC bubble teams. He and his co-host said Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are in. The only bubble teams in their view were Tennessee and Alabama.

They didn't mention Arkansas one time in an entire hour.

[bighog2255]

Arkansas [18-7 (7-5), RPI: 42, SOS: 83] For all of the time we spent dissecting the Ben Simmons-led Tigers a year ago, it's remarkable just how far off the radar LSU has fallen one season later. Johnny Jones' team is 1-11 in the SEC after Saturday's home loss to Arkansas. One-and-11! And if you thought LSU didn't guard anybody last year, get a load of the nation's 320th-ranked per-possession defense: 320th! Point is, losing at LSU would be bad. Arkansas didn't. That's good. This team remains as close to the bubble as any in the country, with a chance for a significant, though ostensibly winnable, boost Wednesday night at South Carolina.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[Adam Stokes]

Looks like it got updated from 33 to 69 brackets before last nights games.

68 Iowa State
68 Kansas State
68 California
68 Michigan St - vs Ohio State
67 TCU
67 Miami FL
65 Michigan
62 Syracuse - Will slide down a tad after losing their opportunity to beat #4 Lousiville at home Monday night
62 Wichita State*
51 Arkansas
42 Wake Forest - @ Clemson - Big bubble game
39 Seton Hall
36 Illinois State
--------- Bubble Line ---------
28 Marquette
26 Tennessee - @ #13 Kentucky - would be a huge win if they can pull it off
24 Georgia Tech
19 Rhode Island
11 Clemson vs Wake Forest - Big Bubble Game
7 Houston
7 Indiana
6 Georgetown
2 Providence
2 Pittsburgh - vs Virginia Tech - VT is 100% in, but this would knock them of some brackets
1 Georgia - vs MSU - Georgia is essentially in the same predicament we are save they have more losses and a better SOS. They need to go 4-2, losing this might force an SECT win.
1 Auburn - vs #15 Florida

Expect to see Texas Tech creep onto the bottom with their win vs Baylor. Texas Tech's resume is essentially a poor man's WV, in that they have a lot of good wins, but have a simply nasty SOS that kept their RPI in the triple digits before last night's win. Now they are in the low 80's with a legitimate shot of an at-large if they can get on a roll.

[Hawg Red]

I don't think so.  Your bubble usually burst  when you lose games you should win or get blown out the water. That is why the Mizz/Vandy game took us from lock to bubble. I don't see USC-E blowing us out honestly. They are a defense first team. I see a low scoring game and I think we keep it close. Explosive teams scare me against this bunch, not slow, methodical, defensive teams.

You can bet that we will drop out of all brackets with a loss to SC being that we're a "last 4 in" at best team right now. When you get that low with your hopes, any loss is going to knock you down most likely.

[20gauge]

I still believe the magic number is 23.

Even at 23 it depends on how you get there.