Mapping out Arkansas' path to the NCAA Tourney

[NWAHutch]

Here's a look at what Arkansas needs to do to make the NCAA Tournament...and it's not as complicated as you may think.

I'm not saying it's going to happen - I've learned not to speak in absolutes with the Hogs - but there is still a clear path to the tourney based on recent history.

http://arkansas.247sports.com/Article/Arkansas-Razorbacks-still-have-path-to-NCAA-Tournament-51253999

[Atlhogfan1]

Never thought it to be complicated.  Weak bubble, RPI manipulative schedule.  Just win enough games to prop up the RPI.  As you say, don't even need to beat SC or Florida to be in contention.  Still a good chance of "good enough" continuing.  If the committee were to bring in other criteria/statistics as they will next season, it may would be a little more difficult.  Can't really compare teams from different seasons as you are only compared to the teams in contention this season.  This season is weak.  As I said after the Ok St loss, it will take a lot of failure to miss the NCAAT this season. 

[TheEnemy]

Does the path look like this:

[Wild Bill Hog]

Pitifully weak conference and a fat win total based on lots of cupcakes ought to do it.

[daprospecta]

Pitifully weak conference and a fat win total based on lots of cupcakes ought to do it.

Our conference is not the ACC but it's not weak. We have three locks and two possible at large bids.  We didn't play many cupcakes this year believe it or not. We just didn't play many top 25 teams.  This team has underachieved a bit but not by much. You remove the Mizz and Vandy losses and they are right where most expected to be or even better.  This team is winning on the road guys. They had a 2.5 game brain fart but let's get behind OUR team and help them finish strong.  We need five wins to be a lock. We have four winnable games left and the first game we play in the SEC tourney will be winnable.  Don't belittle this team like they haven't had a solid season.

[cardsNhogs]

Anderson is blocking the path.

[Wild Bill Hog]

Our conference is not the ACC but it's not weak. We have three locks and two possible at large bids.  We didn't play many cupcakes this year believe it or not. We just didn't play many top 25 teams.  This team has underachieved a bit but not by much. You remove the Mizz and Vandy losses and they are right where most expected to be or even better.  This team is winning on the road guys. They had a 2.5 game brain fart but let's get behind OUR team and help them finish strong.  We need five wins to be a lock. We have four winnable games left and the first game we play in the SEC tourney will be winnable.  Don't belittle this team like they haven't had a solid season.

Our entire future is ahead of us for sure.

[Rocky&Boarwinkle]

Pitifully weak conference and a fat win total based on lots of cupcakes ought to do it.

No cupcakes, just a lot of good to mediocre.  We realized you can beat those just as easily as cupcakes, but they don't screw your RPI like we did in 13 and 14.

[rude1]

Our conference is not the ACC but it's not weak. We have three locks and two possible at large bids.  We didn't play many cupcakes this year believe it or not. We just didn't play many top 25 teams.  This team has underachieved a bit but not by much. You remove the Mizz and Vandy losses and they are right where most expected to be or even better.  This team is winning on the road guys. They had a 2.5 game brain fart but let's get behind OUR team and help them finish strong.  We need five wins to be a lock. We have four winnable games left and the first game we play in the SEC tourney will be winnable.  Don't belittle this team like they haven't had a solid season.

Good take only I would add Mstate to the hiccups that shouldn't have happened. I know it pisses some people off that this team is still in contention, but yet they still are. Now do I expect them to finish and make it, No, but I am glad there is still a slight chance.

[HogFansReunited]

Pitifully weak conference and a fat win total based on lots of cupcakes ought to do it.

Overall our conference is much stronger this year.

[rude1]

Overall our conference is much stronger this year.

Stop that!!! It doesn't fit the agenda to say the conference is better, the Big 12 vs SEC challenge was a fluke that meant nothing, except for the games the Big 12 won!!!!

[Atlhogfan1]

Our conference is not the ACC but it's not weak. We have three locks and two possible at large bids.  We didn't play many cupcakes this year believe it or not. We just didn't play many top 25 teams.  This team has underachieved a bit but not by much. You remove the Mizz and Vandy losses and they are right where most expected to be or even better.  This team is winning on the road guys. They had a 2.5 game brain fart but let's get behind OUR team and help them finish strong.  We need five wins to be a lock. We have four winnable games left and the first game we play in the SEC tourney will be winnable.  Don't belittle this team like they haven't had a solid season.

They haven't had a solid season.  At least not yet. 

Overall our conference is much stronger this year.

It isn't.  It is a little better as the bottom has fewer dreadful teams and the middle is a little better class of mediocrity.  The non conference performance was still awful. 

[jry04]

Here's a look at what Arkansas needs to do to make the NCAA Tournament...and it's not as complicated as you may think.

I'm not saying it's going to happen - I've learned not to speak in absolutes with the Hogs - but there is still a clear path to the tourney based on recent history.

http://arkansas.247sports.com/Article/Arkansas-Razorbacks-still-have-path-to-NCAA-Tournament-51253999

Good article. I have been saying it for weeks. 23-8 gets us in no matter who we beat. Top 40 RPI and top 50 Ken Pom make it 100% of the time, and this year it certainly will. All the bubble teams keep losing along with us.

[Atlhogfan1]

Stop that!!! It doesn't fit the agenda to say the conference is better, the Big 12 vs SEC challenge was a fluke that meant nothing, except for the games the Big 12 won!!!!

SEC winning % in non conf vs Top 50 RPI:  18% with 1 top 25 win.  You are reaching.  It is a little better than recent seasons.  We have played the weakest SEC schedule in the conference to date. 

[Sivad]

Pitifully weak conference and a fat win total based on lots of cupcakes ought to do it.

There is method to Mike's mediocrity.

[rude1]

SEC winning % in non conf vs Top 50 RPI:  18% with 1 top 25 win.  You are reaching.  It is a little better than recent seasons.  We have played the weakest SEC schedule in the conference to date. 

No you are reaching, the SEC has young teams, it would be natural for them not to fare well early. The Big 12 vs Sec challenge showed the league has improved, except for in the eyes of the agenda crowd. In your eyes you will always seek out data that says the conference is bad, thus the Hogs are bad..................

[daprospecta]

They haven't had a solid season.  At least not yet. 

It isn't.  It is a little better as the bottom has fewer dreadful teams and the middle is a little better class of mediocrity.  The non conference performance was still awful. 

When I mean solid, I mean it hasn't been a bad season and we have some serious positives along with obvious negatives. We are winning on the road at a higher clip than NCAA averages.  We are still in contention to make the tourney. We have gotten behind the 8 ball but we are still in it.  Don't get me wrong, I do believe Mike has screwed the pooch a bit but the season still has potential.

[Atlhogfan1]

No you are reaching, the SEC has young teams, it would be natural for them not to fare well early. The Big 12 vs Sec challenge showed the league has improved, except for in the eyes of the agenda crowd. In your eyes you will always seek out data that says the conference is bad, thus the Hogs are bad..................

Don't have to seek it out...................................

Hogs young?  We had our chances to help the record.  14pt loss.  28pt loss. 

The SEC beat one of the Big 12 top 4 in the challenge.  It was a good effort by the SEC. 

[Atlhogfan1]

When I mean solid, I mean it hasn't been a bad season and we have some serious positives along with obvious negatives. We are winning on the road at a higher clip than NCAA averages.  We are still in contention to make the tourney. We have gotten behind the 8 ball but we are still in it.  Don't get me wrong, I do believe Mike has screwed the pooch a bit but the season still has potential.

Good enough. 

[lynbug]

Don't forget crazy results in some conference tournaments.  Every year a few monkey wrenches get thrown in the mix.

[rude1]

Don't have to seek it out...................................

Hogs young?  We had our chances to help the record.  14pt loss.  28pt loss. 

The SEC beat one of the Big 12 top 4 in the challenge.  It was a good effort by the SEC. 

I am sure you know that we are depending greatly on Jucos to make this team go, they are hit n miss in nature. Sure they are juniors but are they really the same as a juniors that are in their 3rd season with a program? Your mind was made up long ago and nothing will change it, even if they make the tourney you will be one of the first ones on here suggesting they shouldn't be in or how it doesn't make a difference going forward.

[Atlhogfan1]

I am sure you know that we are depending greatly on Jucos to make this team go, they are hit n miss in nature. Sure they are juniors but are they really the same as a juniors that are in their 3rd season with a program? Your mind was made up long ago and nothing will change it, even if they make the tourney you will be one of the first ones on here suggesting they shouldn't be in or how it doesn't make a difference going forward.

I know they are.  Why I didn't buy into what they were going to do this season in those conversations last season. Mike recruited them.  It was his stopgap plan after the 2015 recruiting failure plus the exodus of some players. 

It will make a difference.  It will extend good enough for years. 

[rude1]

I know they are.  Why I didn't buy into what they were going to do this season in those conversations last season. Mike recruited them.  It was his stopgap plan after the 2015 recruiting failure plus the exodus of some players. 

It will make a difference.  It will extend good enough for years. 

Amazing how one can be so objective in one sport with mediocrity, but not at all in the other with mediocrity. Interesting.

[Atlhogfan1]

Amazing how one can be so objective in one sport with mediocrity, but not at all in the other with mediocrity. Interesting.

  This again.  I am objective in both. 

Different situations.  If you want to discuss the football program in detail, lets go over to MMQB.  Last football season was unacceptable.  If Bielema doesn't fix the problems, he should be gone in the not so distant future.  His hire was not personal.  No baggage or anchor.  He will leave or will be fired. 

Anderson on the other hand has been an anchor going back to the last few seasons of Nolan.  "Mike should be the head coach"  This mantra and those ardent fans haven't stopped.  17 years or so of Anderson.  It was a personal hire.  He wants to retire here.   His ardent supporters want to give him every chance to do so as it is so important he is the head coach.  More important than the program itself.  The very fluid "good enough" will keep him around. 


If you are going to be objective, you have to take into account factors such as the resources compared to the competition and amount of competition faced.

[PonderinHog]

Amazing how one can be so objective in one sport with mediocrity, but not at all in the other with mediocrity. Interesting.

Well, it's the same thing, only different.  Hope this helps.

[alohawg]

Our entire future is ahead of us for sure.

Hahahaha

[rude1]

A few facts are worth recalling.

Your point is?

[GuvHog]

Don't have to seek it out...................................

Hogs young?  We had our chances to help the record.  14pt loss.  28pt loss. 

The SEC beat one of the Big 12 top 4 in the challenge.  It was a good effort by the SEC. 

The SEC/Big12 challenge was set up to give the Big 12 a clear advantage so that they would win and look like the stronger conference. Two of the better SEC teams (one being South Carolina) were not included in the challenge while 2 lesser SEC teams were, yet the SEC still won 5 games. The SEC is stronger than the Big 12 this year.

[rickfahr]

Name one good win, but before you post your response, look at the name you just typed. Are you really telling me it's a good win?

We haven't beaten an actually good team all year. Not one.

May or may not get into the tournament. IMO, we don't deserve to with the wins and losses we've had.

[ShadowHawg]

SEC winning % in non conf vs Top 50 RPI:  18% with 1 top 25 win.  You are reaching.  It is a little better than recent seasons.  We have played the weakest SEC schedule in the conference to date.

Vast majority of those losses can be attributed to just a few SEC programs. It's a misleading stat to say the least.

[Wild Bill Hog]

Vast majority of those losses can be attributed to just a few SEC programs. It's a misleading stat to say the least.

Yep, the SEC is one tough pastry shop.

[Atlhogfan1]

Vast majority of those losses can be attributed to just a few SEC programs. It's a misleading stat to say the least.

That makes no sense jamie when what we are talking about is how good the conference is as a whole.  Every SEC team except Miss St contributed to the 33 losses.

Top 25 Losses:
UK 3
OM 2
UGa 1
Fl 3
Tenn 4
Mizzou 2
A&M 2
Bama 1
AU 1
Vandy 2
Ark 1

UK had the lone Top 25 win.

Out of the 11 26-50 losses:

LSU 2
OM 2
A&M 2
Vandy 2
SC 1
Bama 1
Arkansas 1

Update:  with UTA's reappearance in the Top 50 SEC is up to 21.4% vs Top 50 in OOC. 

[rude1]

Did you click the link?

Yes I did, and what I saw is the only teams who won who had higher RPI's than their opponents were SEC schools, all the Big 12 wins were from teams who were deemed better according to RPI.

[Mo_Better_Hogs]

Winning chance to beat Florida---FIVE.9 %.

So you're tellin me there's a chance??

[TexArkHogFan]

Not saying it will happen cause the Hogs are so unpredictable, but of the three best teams in the SEC, I think SC is the easiest one to pull an upset on.  They have had some hiccups and are prone to come out flat sometimes so here's hoping we catch them flat and we come out smokin and play lights out for the entire game, not just one half. I don't think we can beat Florida at their place under any circumstances cause I think they are really the best team in the SEC, even better than KY.

[Atlhogfan1]

Not saying it will happen cause the Hogs are so unpredictable, but of the three best teams in the SEC, I think SC is the easiest one to pull an upset on.  They have had some hiccups and are prone to come out flat sometimes so here's hoping we catch them flat and we come out smokin and play lights out for the entire game, not just one half. I don't think we can beat Florida at their place under any circumstances cause I think they are really the best team in the SEC, even better than KY.

Well for us it is because SC is offensively challenged.  201st in college basketball in offensive efficiency.  LSU 202nd. 

But Martin has been effective against Mike going back to the Big 12.  Thornwell is a matchup nightmare for us as we have no answer defensively. 

[Razorod]

Not saying it will happen cause the Hogs are so unpredictable, but of the three best teams in the SEC, I think SC is the easiest one to pull an upset on.  They have had some hiccups and are prone to come out flat sometimes so here's hoping we catch them flat and we come out smokin and play lights out for the entire game, not just one half. I don't think we can beat Florida at their place under any circumstances cause I think they are really the best team in the SEC, even better than KY.

I'd like our chances better if Bama hadn't beaten them last week. In that case, we might have caught them off guard or flat. Hard to see SCarolina losing two straight at home.

[hobhog]

Amazing how one can be so objective in one sport with mediocrity, but not at all in the other with mediocrity. Interesting.

Attendance is a good barometer of where fans think a program is and where it is going. ADs pay a lot of attention to it. Just sayin.

I think it has been pretty apparent since day one of this season: make the dance or bust.

[realistichog]

I have to be honest, I do not want us to make the ncaat. I do not want there to be an excuse to keep Mike and I don't want to see another embarrassing loss.

[daprospecta]

I have to be honest, I do not want us to make the ncaat. I do not want there to be an excuse to keep Mike and I don't want to see another embarrassing loss.

Glad you are being honest but you are not a true fan if you are rooting for our team to lose.   I wanted CBB replaced because his pitfalls at the END OF THE SEASON showed itself one too many times. We were in position to win 8-9 games and poor coaching prevented that from happening.  In basketball, before the season, the goal was the tourney for most folks. If we make it, I don't care if we limp in.  A goal is a goal.  I think the saying goes, you don't care how you to the moon as long as you get there.  If we miss the tourney, you have every right to clamor for change but don't push change after a win especially when we are still in contention.

[Cornfed Pig]

I have to be honest, I do not want us to make the ncaat. I do not want there to be an excuse to keep Mike and I don't want to see another embarrassing loss.

This is what a lot of people don't have the cajones to say.  Also, sweet 6:00:00 on the dot

[hogsanity]

Good take only I would add Mstate to the hiccups that shouldn't have happened. I know it pisses some people off that this team is still in contention, but yet they still are. Now do I expect them to finish and make it, No, but I am glad there is still a slight chance.

No what makes us mad is that they are on the bubble, because of 3 bad losses. Should never have lost to MS or Vandy at home, and Mizzu was just a complete failure by all involved.

[Letsroll1200]

Excellent work. If Arkansas can figure out how to prevent the slow starts I think they can finish strong.

[hogsanity]

Excellent work. If Arkansas can figure out how to prevent the slow starts I think they can finish strong.

So, lets say they go 4-2 and then 0-1 i the sect, how does that play with the committee?

[Letsroll1200]

So, lets say they go 4-2 and then 0-1 i the sect, how does that play with the committee?

If they win the next 4 out of 6 they will be in according to the projections. I think they win 5

[Letsroll1200]

Short of Forrest City Joe, you have to be the most optimistic poster around these parts.

Why not be!! I'm a fan

[Sapperhog]

Anderson is blocking the path.

Truth.

[OperationRestoreHawgBall]

*12 Feb Update * Welp...looks like the win over LSU puts us squarely outside the Bubble. Hate to think what a loss would have done! At this rate it looks like we are going to have to beat someone we aren't supposed to.. Lunardi still has us as last 4 in...but I don't buy it. Never in 4 years has an SEC team rated this low in Massey made the Tourny.

Historically Massey Composite Ratings in the low 40s are dangerous territory for SEC teams trying to make the Big Dance. Massey ratings account for a large variety of different rankings, such as BPI, RPI, etc.

(7) Kentucky (down 1 spot)
(8 ) Florida (up 1 spot)
(25) S. Carolina (down 2 spots)
(45) Tennessee (up 1 spot)
(53) Arkansas (down 9 spots)

Historical Massey Ratings of SEC teams who were last in the NCAA tourny and first out:

                               2016   2015   2014   2013
First SEC Team Out     43       52      48       49
Last SEC Team In       36       49       31       33

[Letsroll1200]

So, lets say they go 4-2 and then 0-1 i the sect, how does that play with the committee?

I really like our chances of getting a win in the SEC tournament if we can stay in the 4th slot. We should be playing Bama, LSU or Mizzou.

[hogsanity]

I really like our chances of getting a win in the SEC tournament if we can stay in the 4th slot. We should be playing Bama, LSU or Mizzou.

Fine, but not what I asked, I asked how a 4-2 reg finish and a 0-1 SECT appearance affects the prospects of making the ncaat? Right now the Hogs are projected as a 10 or 11 seed, meaning one of the last at large bids, and possibly in a play in game.