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I'm making the call now...no NCAA tournament for Hogs this year

Started by WizardofhOgZ, April 08, 2016, 07:46:10 pm

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bighog2255

By the way, that A&M team you mentioned had an RPI of 33 entering the tournament. They also went 13-16, so they didn't play the full 30 games. They had a big win over Vandy in the SEC tourney which probably put them in

Kevin

Submit yourselves therefore to God. Resist the devil and he will flee from you.<br />James 4:7
Reject Every Kind Of Evil 1 Thessalonians 5:22

 

jry04

Quote from: bighog2255 on April 27, 2016, 12:29:50 pm
We are now 8-4 in 1-run games. Hard to argue that we are unlucky or had a lot of bad breaks. We are in this spot because we haven't been very good to this point.
Where was this said? You didn't quote me, so I have no idea if you are talking about me, but since we are the only two posting I would think it is directed to me. I never once said we are unlucky or have had bad breaks. I said it is frustrating that we were unable to hold onto large leads. Nothing about being unlucky. We blew those leads ourselves. That doesn't make it any less frustrating. When you have a 4 run lead after in the 6th or later, you should not lose it. Especially when you supposedly have a top 3 closer in the country.

jry04

Highs 70s after going 1-2, as predicted. There are a few games that will go final, so that may change things. However, as of now we are #79 RPI. We net 14 spots this week going 2-2, up from #93. A road win @ Missouri state would bump us a few spots.

DiamondHogFan

Need to win 7 of the last 9 SEC games.  Most likely sweep is Bama.  Absolutely cannot lose either game to Missouri St. 

We played well on Saturday, couldn't get back in it today after the big inning off of the error.  Time to regroup and take care of business Tuesday, then treat LSU like a Super Regional.  We must be in "win or go home" postseason mode starting on Tuesday. 

code red

It's gonna b dang well almost impossible now......only chance is to win tourny.
"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today."  Dr. Lou

jry04

Quote from: code red on May 01, 2016, 09:38:17 pm
It's gonna b dang well almost impossible now......only chance is to win tourny.
lol...

Difficult, yes. Impossible, not quite. Unlikely that we win these last 3, but win these last 3 and we don't have to come anywhere near winning the SECT to get in. With that said, I don't see it happening.

Kevin

Never thought a hog team would ever be in this position.  Hate to have to wait another year to attend a regional
Submit yourselves therefore to God. Resist the devil and he will flee from you.<br />James 4:7
Reject Every Kind Of Evil 1 Thessalonians 5:22

ThisTeetsTaken

I can't figure out what happened unless it's just been a case of pitchers underperforming or maybe we've spent so much more a scholarship money on position players since Vitello came on that we just don't have the Schmidts, Todds, Staneks, etc. anymore.  I dunno what's going on but this isn't a vintage DVH team for sure. 
***"He must increase, but I must decrease"***

jry04

Quote from: ThisTeetsTaken on May 02, 2016, 07:26:48 am
I can't figure out what happened unless it's just been a case of pitchers underperforming or maybe we've spent so much more a scholarship money on position players since Vitello came on that we just don't have the Schmidts, Todds, Staneks, etc. anymore.  I dunno what's going on but this isn't a vintage DVH team for sure. 
I think it has more to do with 3 of our more reliable pitchers came off season ending surgery last year, and didn't quite come back the same. That is just a guess, but our hitting has been fine this year. Our pitching is nothing like we expected, although better as of late. Taco, Teague, and McKinney were all expected to be big time pitchers this year, and haven't lived up to expectations.

bighog2255

Quote from: DiamondHogFan on May 01, 2016, 09:10:35 pm
Need to win 7 of the last 9 SEC games.  Most likely sweep is Bama.  Absolutely cannot lose either game to Missouri St. 

We played well on Saturday, couldn't get back in it today after the big inning off of the error.  Time to regroup and take care of business Tuesday, then treat LSU like a Super Regional.  We must be in "win or go home" postseason mode starting on Tuesday.

Yep. I still think we need 14 SEC wins. Another opportunity missed this weekend. Must go at least 3-1 this week.

FYI, we haven't won a series in Baton Rouge since 2004 (lost our last 5 series there). That team went to Omaha. In fact, we have only won 2 out of the last 13 series with LSU.

DiamondHogFan

Quote from: bighog2255 on May 02, 2016, 07:55:35 am
Yep. I still think we need 14 SEC wins. Another opportunity missed this weekend. Must go at least 3-1 this week.

FYI, we haven't won a series in Baton Rouge since 2004 (lost our last 5 series there). That team went to Omaha. In fact, we have only won 2 out of the last 13 series with LSU.
Going to be tough (slight understatement there).  If we were to take 2 from LSU that would put them at 12-12.  They are fighting for positioning so they will be ready to play and play well.

We will be fighting Alabama to get into the SEC tournament it appears.  MUST SWEEP!  We need big crowds that weekend to show these guys they still have support no matter what happens this week.  It won't be the last home games as we still have Missouri St at Baum the following Tuesday, but it will be the last home SEC series for many of these guys.  They need to go out on a 4 game winning streak at Baum.

Mississippi St is playing for a national seed.  Winning 2 in Starkville will be near impossible. 

We need some All-american type pitching performances over the next month.  And some TIMELY HITTING.  Our team BA is middle of the pack in the SEC, but a lot of those hits are 2 out base hits with nobody on base.  We need the 2 out base hits with RISP to start showing up.

I'll give us a 10% chance of making the tournament...and that may be high considering the road we have left.

HoopS

Anytime your starting pitching is suspect, you will struggle. All levels. The OP was spot-on. Hopefully we are starting to get a little more consistent with our starters and maybe we can heat up in time still.

 

hogsanity

Teams like this are seen in baseball all the time. They never can sync up good pitching while the bats are hot, and they lose a ton of close games because of it. They get out slugged one game 10-8, then they lose the next one 2-0 when the starter only makes one mistake.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

ThisTeetsTaken

Quote from: jry04 on May 02, 2016, 07:41:34 am
I think it has more to do with 3 of our more reliable pitchers came off season ending surgery last year, and didn't quite come back the same. That is just a guess, but our hitting has been fine this year. Our pitching is nothing like we expected, although better as of late. Taco, Teague, and McKinney were all expected to be big time pitchers this year, and haven't lived up to expectations.
I just hope we have some (SEC weekend starter caliber) pitchers committed to play for us. 
***"He must increase, but I must decrease"***

jry04

Quote from: ThisTeetsTaken on May 02, 2016, 12:35:16 pm
I just hope we have some (SEC weekend starter caliber) pitchers committed to play for us. 
I think we have them on campus. We know what McKinney can be. He actually had a pretty good outing last night against the best offense in the country. He just wasn't helped out by that Bernal error. If Bernal throws the ball accurately to first we probably escape, and McKinney goes on to throw 5-6 scoreless. McKinney was great last year.

Campbell, Knight, Loeske have all shown the ability to be a weekend starter, and I do not think it is a done deal that Taco gets drafted and goes pro after this season. We have quite a few arms expected to make it to campus, but we also have quite a few going through growing pains this year that will be much better next year.


The thing we have to worry about is replacing Bernal and Nomura, the development of Scroggins at the plate, and keeping Bonfield since he is a draft eligible sophomore.

tennesseehogwild

Sometimes it freaking stinks to be in the SEC. Hogs are better than probably 75% of the rest of the country, but are likely to be left out of the equation come tourney time....No way in hell we are the 79th best team in NCAA. Texas Tech is going to get a National Seed and we handled them on a neutral site. God I hope we sweep Mo. State. I bet they are throwing their ace against us for sure!

jry04

Quote from: tennesseehogwild on May 02, 2016, 09:41:28 pm
Sometimes it freaking stinks to be in the SEC. Hogs are better than probably 75% of the rest of the country, but are likely to be left out of the equation come tourney time....No way in hell we are the 79th best team in NCAA. Texas Tech is going to get a National Seed and we handled them on a neutral site. God I hope we sweep Mo. State. I bet they are throwing their ace against us for sure!
I doubt they are throwing any of their weekend starters, and if they are then their coach is as stupid as it gets. They have a pretty decent conference opponent coming up, and Missouri State is only 3-8 in conference play, and have lost 5 straight. Beating us would help their pride, but realistically wouldn't do enough for their resume to compensate for losing another conference series.

Dr. Starcs

Nothing would surprise me from him. He and his team were the most classless bunch we faced all last year.

jry04

Quote from: Dr. Starcs on May 03, 2016, 08:36:28 am
Nothing would surprise me from him. He and his team were the most classless bunch we faced all last year.
True. If they do that, then I hope it turns out like it did for LT. They threw their ace against us, barely beat us, and then went on to lose their weekend series to a really bad team. I know them losing wouldn't help our RPI, but I think it is hilarious when these small schools place so much emphasis on winning 1 mid-week game when their conference series is much more important in the bigger picture.

I guess us being in the SEC and the team who eliminated them makes this a huge game for them, but it isn't like we are a top 50 team that will boost their RPI drastically.

HoopS

Quote from: tennesseehogwild on May 02, 2016, 09:41:28 pm
Sometimes it freaking stinks to be in the SEC. Hogs are better than probably 75% of the rest of the country, but are likely to be left out of the equation come tourney time....No way in hell we are the 79th best team in NCAA. Texas Tech is going to get a National Seed and we handled them on a neutral site. God I hope we sweep Mo. State. I bet they are throwing their ace against us for sure!
but think back to that Tech game. They knocked us all around the park in the early innings but we finally knocked them around enough to win. That was the first warning sign on our pitching for me.

jry04

Quote from: HoopS on May 03, 2016, 09:11:20 am
but think back to that Tech game. They knocked us all around the park in the early innings but we finally knocked them around enough to win. That was the first warning sign on our pitching for me.
McKinney didn't even make it out of the first inning. That was very worrisome. I just chalked it up as a bad outing, but the bad outings continued. I have no doubt we get our pitching in order before next season, though. Like I said, I think our main priority at this point is making sure we get some middle infielders to campus, and making sure Bonfield doesn't go pro.

tennesseehogwild

If Bonfield sticks around I could see him blowing up the same way AB did. Really think his stock would be higher in next year's draft.

jry04

Quote from: tennesseehogwild on May 03, 2016, 10:08:37 am
If Bonfield sticks around I could see him blowing up the same way AB did. Really think his stock would be higher in next year's draft.
I agree. You never know, though. I know DVH is pretty hard on him, whether it is warranted or not. Maybe he likes the tough coaching, but he could also hate it and want to get out of here as soon as possible. There aren't too many guys that get yelled at every game in the dugout, or yanked mid at bat like Bonfield. I have no doubt Bonfield gets drafted, and will have some leverage with his signing bonus seeing how he has 2 years of eligibility left. However, he could also come back and still have some leverage while improving his draft stock with another big season.

 

DiamondHogFan

Quote from: jry04 on May 03, 2016, 10:22:21 am
I agree. You never know, though. I know DVH is pretty hard on him, whether it is warranted or not. Maybe he likes the tough coaching, but he could also hate it and want to get out of here as soon as possible. There aren't too many guys that get yelled at every game in the dugout, or yanked mid at bat like Bonfield. I have no doubt Bonfield gets drafted, and will have some leverage with his signing bonus seeing how he has 2 years of eligibility left. However, he could also come back and still have some leverage while improving his draft stock with another big season.
Another year would benefit Bonfield tremendously.  It all depends on where he gets drafter and the $$$ presented to him.  I'm sure he has a number in mind that it will take to get him to go pro.  I just hope the decision is easy for him.  Either he sees what he wants and goes, or doesn't and wants to come back and work for more.  As you said, he is in a different position than most early draft eligible players that are coming out as Juniors.  That will play a big role in his decision. 

Benintendi went after 2, but he was also the golden spikes winner and drafter #7 overall.  Bonfield isn't there yet, not even close really.  But with a monster year next year, he could be.

BroyledNutts

I'm sure I'm wrong, but with the demeanor I've witnessed from this team this year, both in person and on various media, I get the feeling there may be wholesale transfers or early outs at season's end ... particularly heavy on pitching transfers...

There's something really wrong with the chemistry on this team ... I have no idea what, but from all other Diamond Hog teams I've witnessed to the team this year, there is something really, really amiss....

Dr. Starcs

It's called good pitching, hitting, fielding and coaching.

Knot2brite

I can see some pitchers not getting their scholie renewed for next year. I even think there are a couple of upper class men that may not get renewed. But I also see a core of young pitchers that will stay and hopefully get better during the summer and offseason.
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