Looking to the future, foresight in 2020

[bennyl08]

The third year is often the year that a new coach has had enough time to really be judged barring extenuating circumstances.

So, what will our depth chart look like in Morris's third year? Two things are pretty obvious here in that one, we won't know what probably half the roster will even look like by then given departures or who will be recruited. Further, we won't know who will rise up or not. We have a roster with a lot of talent but which specific players will rise to the top? So what an exercise like this can show at least is what we will have as upperclassmen on the team (barring transfers, dismissals, early declarees to the draft, etc...) and where we will need to hit in recruiting over the next two cycles. Also, will sort mostly by year rather than perhaps who will actually be ahead as well as including walk-ons that have shown promise to perhaps become scholarships.

QB: Kelley, RsSr
       Lindsay, RsSr *
       Proctor, RsSr *
       Hyatt, RsJr
       Noland, RsSo
       Jones, RsSo

Good programs usually have qb's transfer away. There will also be two more classes of qb's coming into the fold. However, barring early departure to the NFL, good chance that whoever our starter is this year will be a third year starter come 2020.

RB: Boyd, RsSr
      Hayden, Sr
      M. Williams, RsJr

Whaley and Hammonds could both be here if they end up reshirting some year in the future. Boyd could be here if he has three years to play, but he may only have two. Not sure. Regardless, we'll need plenty more recruits between now and then. I have heard the rumor of Barkely switching to RB, but at 175 and based on his HS highlights, I have serious doubts about him playing there. Sounds like he'll either switch back to WR or the coaches feel this is a last chance desperate position switch for him to work out or else he'll transfer. Until there's any evidence of him having staying power at RB, I won't list him there. EDIT: Boyd has 3 years to play 3.

FB: n/a

We'll need some players to come in and fill the void here. Think of our best teams, they've all had good FB's on them, even under the Petrino years, the only year we had a good run game was when we regularly used a fullback.

WR: Jones: RsSr
       Boateng, RsSr
       Enlow, RsSr*
       Barnes, Sr
       Warren, Sr
       Jackson, RsJr
       Barkley, RsJr
       Woods, RsSo

I wouldn't be surprised if Jordan Jones leaves for the NFL before here. Boateng is also a strong candidate for transfer. Barnes and Warren will help fill in the slot receiver role while Kolian Jackson is a receiver in the #1 mold. Woods looks to fill a specific niche of being a possession guy and a blocker/redzone specialty. Barkley has an outside chance of being in the RB position. We'll definitely some more playmakers in the next two seasons, but next year could give us some real playmakers. However, we could definitely have some top notch talent in the upperclass group as well.

TE: Gunter, RsSr

Definitely need some more players here. Don't forget that Gunter as a true freshmen was playing up there in the rotation as well, so with him being healthy, he could forgo a 5th season if Morris uses the TE enough for him to be noticed.

OL: Hays, RsSr
      Hall, RsSr* (don't remember if he's scholly or not)
      Clary, Sr
      Wagner, RsJr
      Adcock, RsJr
      Clenin, RsJr
      Gatlin, RsSo
      Winkel, RsSo
      Robinson, RsSo

Very good chance that even in 2020, all 5 starters could be Bielema guys with Hays at C, Clary and Adcock at the guards, with Wagner and Clenin at the tackles. Of the three freshmen this season, Winkel's the only I'd guess might not redshirt, but hopefully all three will redshirt. Big takeaway here is that we could have a very experienced and talented starting group at the OL position for 2020.

DE: Porter, RsJr
      Nichols, RsSo
      Alexander, RsSo
      Fulwilder, RsSo

Gerald played 2 years in JUCO, and I doubt he redshirts here, so he'll be gone. I'd bet that one of the freshmen DE's doesn't redshirt this year, but can't say which one that might be, so I have all three listed as redshirts, but know that probably won't happen. Porter's the only real pass rusher of that group though in terms of explosion off the snap. We'll need some more players and depth here over the next two years.

DT: Guidry, RsSr
      Marshall, RsSr
      Ferrell, Jr

I'll just go ahead and say that Billy won't redshirt. These three as upperclassmen at DT so long as they all stay and don't leave early for the NFL would give us a great group to work with. We'd need more depth obviously, but wouldn't need any young'ns to be major contributors.

LB: AJB, RsSr
      LaFrance, RsSr
      Morgan, RsSr
      Walker, RsSr
      Henry, Sr
      Fisher, RsJr
      Paul, RsJr
      Munson, RsJr
      Pool, RsSo
      Parker, RsSo

Bumper Pool may not redshirt as he is a very good player, but I mean, when you look at the talent and depth ahead of him with guys like Greenlaw and Harris starting and Morgan and Ramsey being very productive in limited roles last year along with the other players, a redshirt is a very serious possibility. Regardless, we could not sign a single LB in the next two classes and still field a 3 deep (in a 4-3 defense) of strictly third year players or better who are all SEC level guys. Like Petrino left Bielema with a gift of plentiful DL players, Morris is getting a gift of some really good and plentiful LB's. However, some could transfer or leave early for the NFL and obviously it would be a bad idea to not sign any LB's, but we should be in great shape at the position for 2020.

CB: Calloway, Sr
      Curtis, RsJr
      Hernandez, RsJr
      McClellion, RsJr
      Bishop, RsSo

We should be in very good hands there at CB as well. Calloway's the only one we've seen play and he did pretty well for a true freshmen. Curtis looks a lot like Adoree Jackson and could be a great compliment to Calloway with Chevin being more of the lockdown corner whose name you rarely hear with qbs avoiding throwing to him with Jordan being the guy who may give up a play here and there, but will make up for it with 5+ interception and multiple td's. He's the sort of athlete that could realistically have an int return td, punt return td, and get a td taking some snaps at WR. Hernandez and McClellion were definitely overshadowed as recruits by the likes of Brown, Curl, Calloway, and Curtis, but they are also very exciting players. IMO, it'd be like having Hayden and Dennis Johnson being overshadowed by Whaley and Collins. There's a reason the others got more hype, but these shouldn't be ignored or tossed to the side by any stretch.

S: Edwards, RsSr
    Smith, RsSr
    Curl, Sr
    Brown, RsJr
    Mason, RsSo
    Foucha, RsSo

Edwards and Smith as upperclassmen would probably IMO be starting over any other safeties we've had in the past 10 years save for Tremain Thomas and Santos Ramirez. They'd probably be good enough to start for at least 3-5 other SEC teams. However, there's a good chance they could be our third string behind Curl, Brown, Mason, and Foucha. Which means that there's a good chance that there could be a couple transfers that happen. However, regardless, our two deep here should be primarily if not entirely upperclassmen as well.

K/P: Mazza, RsJr
LS: Silver, RsJr

We'll definitely need some more depth at least on special teams between now and then.

[Busta_Nutt]

Prediction: 8-4, 4th place finish in the West

[bennyl08]

Overall, Morris is primed to have a roster full of extremely talented upperclassmen for his third year here. Good chance at having a 3rd year starter at QB, at least one upperclassmen at RB. However, hopefully at least one has been good enough to declare early for the NFL. Would love to have all 3 here in 2020, but odds are that means none have been good enough to go. WR could likely use another WR that is big and fast rather than just big (woods) or just fast (warren/barnes both of whom are quicker than they are fast but still fast enough). OL could easily be starting nobody who's less than a 4th year player. On offense, the only real concern is the power players. We signed ZERO fb's or TE's this class and by 2020, we'll only have Gunter on scholarship for either position, so we'll need to sign several in 2019 and 2020 meaning that our depth will be very green there. We'll also need more depth at RB.

On defense, in year 3, we will be absolutely golden in the back 7. We could have 7 players leave and still field a two deep across the board with upperclassmen there, and pretty talented upperclassmen at that. The biggest question mark for 2020 on defense will be the DL. The DT position should be fine with a very talented core group in Guidry, Marshall, and Ferrel, so long as we add some more depth b/w now and then. However, DE will need some work. We'll have nobody left who's played a snap of college ball on the roster so it's hard to say what'll be like. However, from the looks, we only have one guy who can be a do it all DE in Nichols, being good in the run game and quick enough to rush the passer. Porter looks to be a beast of a pass rusher, but many like him struggle early on in the run game or against rushing qb's as they explode into the backfield and lose all gap control in the process. That was true of Flowers as an underclassmen and he improved as he got older so hopefully the same will happen for Porter. Alexander reminds me a lot of Fisher at LB. Both of those guys are at their best as 3-4 OLB's. Fullwilder can be a good run stopping DE, but I think could switch over to the OL given his strength, size, and arms but lack of speed.

[bennyl08]

Prediction: 8-4, 4th place finish in the West

That's a pretty safe, conservative prediction.

If Morris is the coach that we hope he is, 8-4 and 4th in the west is where we probably should be in 2018 and if we haven't improved beyond that by 2020, Morris might not be the coach in 2021.

Unlike Bielema who had a near complete roster rebuild, Morris only needs to be a better play caller and make better adjustments in game. So, I doubt he gets 5 years. If we have some major injuries or the 4 losses are really close with reason to believe that improvement is on the way, I'd bet Morris would get a 4th year. However, if we're getting blown out by the good teams and only beating the bad teams, that could be the end for Morris here.

[steveaustin69]

That's a pretty safe, conservative prediction.

If Morris is the coach that we hope he is, 8-4 and 4th in the west is where we probably should be in 2018 and if we haven't improved beyond that by 2020, Morris might not be the coach in 2021.

Unlike Bielema who had a near complete roster rebuild, Morris only needs to be a better play caller and make better adjustments in game. So, I doubt he gets 5 years. If we have some major injuries or the 4 losses are really close with reason to believe that improvement is on the way, I'd bet Morris would get a 4th year. However, if we're getting blown out by the good teams and only beating the bad teams, that could be the end for Morris here.

You're delusional, man. Hogville's god himself (Petrino) won five games his first year.

Offense was the least of our worries last year.

We are not letting Morris go if he goes 8-4 in year 3 even if he gets blown out a few times.

What in the world are you smoking?

[bythelake]

Another great report.  Thanks

[ICEman]

Will need to change these kinds of thread heads in 21 months.

[bennyl08]

You're delusional, man. Hogville's god himself (Petrino) won five games his first year.

Offense was the least of our worries last year.

We are not letting Morris go if he goes 8-4 in year 3.

What in the world are you smoking?

Our roster is in way better shape now than it was in 2008 or 2013. We can be winning from day 1. The only thing that would keep us from doing so is if our coaching staff fails us or the physically talented players we have are in too deep of a mental rut to come out of in 6 months.

Not sure what our offense last year has to do with anything. Could you elaborate on your reasoning for posting that as I'm apparently not able to read between your lines there.

If he goes 7-5 this year, 8-4 next year, and 8-4 again in 2020 with zero signs of progress being made and perhaps even signs of regression with the wins getting tighter and the losses bigger, you think that there's a zero chance of him being let go with an 8-4 record in year 3? Especially if you combine the relative strength of the schedule, MSU could be way down, OM will likely be way worse, LSU if they stick with Orgeron will be worse. The two Miss schools could be teams that struggle to be bowl eligible over the next 3 years under Morris, LSU could sink down to mediocre levels. If we're barely beating them in year 3 while losing by 3+ possessions to Auburn, Bama, Aggies, and one of the east teams, say losing badly to Mizz as well and barely beating vandy or kentucky, then yeah, he could realistically be fired in year 3. OTOH, if he's beating those schools by an increasing margin and is decreasing the margin of loss to the schools like Bama and in year 3, we are only 8-4 but on pace and showing improvement from year to year, then yeah, slim chance he'd be fired for that. Or, if say MSU's coach turns out to be a real hit for them and Jimbo has the aggies bumping up to the playoff level team such that the schedule is even harder for Morris than under Bielema, then 8-4 probably wouldn't get him fired there either.

8-4 and 4th in the west in year 3 though isn't a guarantee of anything. That could be considered a great coaching job by Morris given the circumstances of facing 4 perennial top 10 teams and heisman candidates while suffering key injuries for us. Or, it could be a stagnant program that is slowly regressing and trending the wrong way with 3 years of no progress, with the 8 wins coming against a total of 1-2 bowl eligible teams to the point where he gets fired.

[steveaustin69]

Our roster is in way better shape now than it was in 2008 or 2013. We can be winning from day 1. The only thing that would keep us from doing so is if our coaching staff fails us or the physically talented players we have are in too deep of a mental rut to come out of in 6 months.

Not sure what our offense last year has to do with anything. Could you elaborate on your reasoning for posting that as I'm apparently not able to read between your lines there.

If he goes 7-5 this year, 8-4 next year, and 8-4 again in 2020 with zero signs of progress being made and perhaps even signs of regression with the wins getting tighter and the losses bigger, you think that there's a zero chance of him being let go with an 8-4 record in year 3? Especially if you combine the relative strength of the schedule, MSU could be way down, OM will likely be way worse, LSU if they stick with Orgeron will be worse. The two Miss schools could be teams that struggle to be bowl eligible over the next 3 years under Morris, LSU could sink down to mediocre levels. If we're barely beating them in year 3 while losing by 3+ possessions to Auburn, Bama, Aggies, and one of the east teams, say losing badly to Mizz as well and barely beating vandy or kentucky, then yeah, he could realistically be fired in year 3. OTOH, if he's beating those schools by an increasing margin and is decreasing the margin of loss to the schools like Bama and in year 3, we are only 8-4 but on pace and showing improvement from year to year, then yeah, slim chance he'd be fired for that. Or, if say MSU's coach turns out to be a real hit for them and Jimbo has the aggies bumping up to the playoff level team such that the schedule is even harder for Morris than under Bielema, then 8-4 probably wouldn't get him fired there either.

8-4 and 4th in the west in year 3 though isn't a guarantee of anything. That could be considered a great coaching job by Morris given the circumstances of facing 4 perennial top 10 teams and heisman candidates while suffering key injuries for us. Or, it could be a stagnant program that is slowly regressing and trending the wrong way with 3 years of no progress, with the 8 wins coming against a total of 1-2 bowl eligible teams to the point where he gets fired.

Morris only needs to be a better play caller

That insinuates our offense struggled last year.

Your mind is a strange place; Arkansas has never consistently finished above .500 in conference in the SEC. Now everyone in the West is going to be significantly down and we get to beat up on them?  Hell, even if the teams you mentioned suffer a bit from a coaching change/lack of coaching talent they have still been beating us on the recruiting trail.  This thought process that any game in the SEC is a gimme will never cease to boggle my mind.

There's not a chance in hell we fire a coach in year 3 off an 8-4 season. You need help.

[Al Boarland]

Our roster is in way better shape now than it was in 2008 or 2013. We can be winning from day 1. The only thing that would keep us from doing so is if our coaching staff fails us or the physically talented players we have are in too deep of a mental rut to come out of in 6 months.

Not sure what our offense last year has to do with anything. Could you elaborate on your reasoning for posting that as I'm apparently not able to read between your lines there.

If he goes 7-5 this year, 8-4 next year, and 8-4 again in 2020 with zero signs of progress being made and perhaps even signs of regression with the wins getting tighter and the losses bigger, you think that there's a zero chance of him being let go with an 8-4 record in year 3? Especially if you combine the relative strength of the schedule, MSU could be way down, OM will likely be way worse, LSU if they stick with Orgeron will be worse. The two Miss schools could be teams that struggle to be bowl eligible over the next 3 years under Morris, LSU could sink down to mediocre levels. If we're barely beating them in year 3 while losing by 3+ possessions to Auburn, Bama, Aggies, and one of the east teams, say losing badly to Mizz as well and barely beating vandy or kentucky, then yeah, he could realistically be fired in year 3. OTOH, if he's beating those schools by an increasing margin and is decreasing the margin of loss to the schools like Bama and in year 3, we are only 8-4 but on pace and showing improvement from year to year, then yeah, slim chance he'd be fired for that. Or, if say MSU's coach turns out to be a real hit for them and Jimbo has the aggies bumping up to the playoff level team such that the schedule is even harder for Morris than under Bielema, then 8-4 probably wouldn't get him fired there either.

8-4 and 4th in the west in year 3 though isn't a guarantee of anything. That could be considered a great coaching job by Morris given the circumstances of facing 4 perennial top 10 teams and heisman candidates while suffering key injuries for us. Or, it could be a stagnant program that is slowly regressing and trending the wrong way with 3 years of no progress, with the 8 wins coming against a total of 1-2 bowl eligible teams to the point where he gets fired.

No way in hell he will ever be let go after winning 8 games unless it's off the field related.

[12247]

Durn Benny, Where did you get your crystal ball.  Admit mine came from Dollar General and its really cloudy almost foggy.  Maybe I need a new one. 

There isn't an SEC West team OK with being bad.  OM may not have any control over where they end up but the rest do to a point.  LSU and A&M are not likely to put up with folding up.  Cold hard truth is if their coaching can hold up, then they are more likely than us to win 8 or more.

Just 8 months ago you were all BERT, all the time, insisting he just needed time.  Now this new Dude with all those players that needed more time have gotten all grown up and should be PRODUCING, day one.   Now they are better than the 2013 group.  Nice crystal ball.

[bennyl08]

That insinuates our offense struggled last year.

Your mind is a strange place; Arkansas has never consistently finished above .500 in conference in the SEC. Now everyone in the West is going to be significantly down and we get to beat up on them?  Hell, even if the teams you mentioned suffer a bit from a coaching change/lack of coaching talent they have still been beating us on the recruiting trail.  This thought process that any game in the SEC is a gimme will never cease to boggle my mind.

There's not a chance in hell we fire a coach in year 3 off an 8-4 season. You need help.

Our offense did struggle last year, particularly in scoring td's. Morris is also responsible for the defensive playcalls. So, even if Morris doesn't know a boundary corner from a field corner (which I'm sure he does), he still gets credit for better or worse for the defense because that is who he hired.

Where do you see anything saying that everyone in the west is going to be significantly down? Heck, where do you see anything saying that any individual team in the SEC west is going to significantly down? I can promise you it isn't in any of my posts. There is a very strong possibility that many SEC teams are going to be down for the next couple of years. There are a lot of new coaches and more often than not, a new hire isn't going to work out. However, for all anybody knows, each of the coaches could all be Nick Sabans. Which is something I mentioned in the above post. The west could be resurgent in power with half the division being serious contenders for the playoff year in and year out or it could be greatly dwindled with half the division being lucky just to be bowl eligible. I certainly don't know which way it will lead. Anybody who says they'd bet their life on any given outcome is either suicidal or a fool. Re-reading my post, there was one line where I said LSU will be worse if they stick with Orgeron, but in the next sentence, LSU going from a 9-11 win team down to a 7-9 win team was back to being a conditional rather than a given.

Sounds like you need help with reading comprehension. And yes, an 8-4 record could be entirely not enough to save his job if he is failing in other areas and I'm not talking about a motorcycle accident. If the product on the field has demonstrably regressed in each of his three seasons with no signs that he is going to be able to turn things around? Yeah, he could be fired. And yes, we have a team right now that could regress for three straight years and go 8-4 in 2020. At the very least, I'd hope that any coach that goes three years here and never once shows any sign of improving the team and regresses each and every year would be fired. Maybe the powers that be wouldn't do that. However, under Bielema, through the first three seasons, the team showed improvement and in the areas that didn't improve, there were demonstrable steps taken to correct for those errors. In year 4, virtually everybody expected a 7-5 type season with the major losses that the roster was taking. Those last two losses were unforgiveable, but we were well in position to win 9 games that year and there was reason to believe the cause of those breakdowns were being addressed. However, in year 5, a 7-5 season would have gotten Bielema fired with Long stating as much and likely 8-4. That was a 9+ win season or bust and it busted hard. I bring that up as a sort of rubric for Morris. Bielema did plenty of things wrong but did several things right as well. For Morris to show demonstrable regression each of those three years, he'd have to show even less than Bielema did and yes, I think he can show less than Bielema and it still be possible to go 8-4. The odds of my scenario ever happening are quite low. However, we didn't also didn't hire Morris to just win 7-8 games every season. So, yeah, he's going to have to win more than 7-8 games here to keep his job. Given that he has the roster to win now, I'd be disappointed if 5 years were given to prove anything. If he can't get us to 9+ wins in the next three years, good chance we don't win many games this year in the first place. Odds of him doing well enough this year and regressing each of the next three are low.

[Al Boarland]

Our offense did struggle last year, particularly in scoring td's. Morris is also responsible for the defensive playcalls. So, even if Morris doesn't know a boundary corner from a field corner (which I'm sure he does), he still gets credit for better or worse for the defense because that is who he hired.

Where do you see anything saying that everyone in the west is going to be significantly down? Heck, where do you see anything saying that any individual team in the SEC west is going to significantly down? I can promise you it isn't in any of my posts. There is a very strong possibility that many SEC teams are going to be down for the next couple of years. There are a lot of new coaches and more often than not, a new hire isn't going to work out. However, for all anybody knows, each of the coaches could all be Nick Sabans. Which is something I mentioned in the above post. The west could be resurgent in power with half the division being serious contenders for the playoff year in and year out or it could be greatly dwindled with half the division being lucky just to be bowl eligible. I certainly don't know which way it will lead. Anybody who says they'd bet their life on any given outcome is either suicidal or a fool. Re-reading my post, there was one line where I said LSU will be worse if they stick with Orgeron, but in the next sentence, LSU going from a 9-11 win team down to a 7-9 win team was back to being a conditional rather than a given.

Sounds like you need help with reading comprehension. And yes, an 8-4 record could be entirely not enough to save his job if he is failing in other areas and I'm not talking about a motorcycle accident. If the product on the field has demonstrably regressed in each of his three seasons with no signs that he is going to be able to turn things around? Yeah, he could be fired. And yes, we have a team right now that could regress for three straight years and go 8-4 in 2020. At the very least, I'd hope that any coach that goes three years here and never once shows any sign of improving the team and regresses each and every year would be fired. Maybe the powers that be wouldn't do that. However, under Bielema, through the first three seasons, the team showed improvement and in the areas that didn't improve, there were demonstrable steps taken to correct for those errors. In year 4, virtually everybody expected a 7-5 type season with the major losses that the roster was taking. Those last two losses were unforgiveable, but we were well in position to win 9 games that year and there was reason to believe the cause of those breakdowns were being addressed. However, in year 5, a 7-5 season would have gotten Bielema fired with Long stating as much and likely 8-4. That was a 9+ win season or bust and it busted hard. I bring that up as a sort of rubric for Morris. Bielema did plenty of things wrong but did several things right as well. For Morris to show demonstrable regression each of those three years, he'd have to show even less than Bielema did and yes, I think he can show less than Bielema and it still be possible to go 8-4. The odds of my scenario ever happening are quite low. However, we didn't also didn't hire Morris to just win 7-8 games every season. So, yeah, he's going to have to win more than 7-8 games here to keep his job. Given that he has the roster to win now, I'd be disappointed if 5 years were given to prove anything. If he can't get us to 9+ wins in the next three years, good chance we don't win many games this year in the first place. Odds of him doing well enough this year and regressing each of the next three are low.

Ain't happening with 8 wins unless a sure fire guaranteed coach that could come in and win is lined up.

[bennyl08]

Durn Benny, Where did you get your crystal ball.  Admit mine came from Dollar General and its really cloudy almost foggy.  Maybe I need a new one. 

There isn't an SEC West team OK with being bad.  OM may not have any control over where they end up but the rest do to a point.  LSU and A&M are not likely to put up with folding up.  Cold hard truth is if their coaching can hold up, then they are more likely than us to win 8 or more.

No they aren't, but how many coaches end up working out? In the past three primary head coaches for the aggies, only one has had a 10+ win season and even then, only for one year with a heisman trophy qb before sinking back down. In that stretch, they've had 3 <6 win seasons to go along with 4 9+ win seasons. Before Saban, LSU had 6 primary HC's spanning 30 years, only two total 10+ win seasons. To go with the same rubric, they'd had 13 <6 win seasons to go with 11 9+ win seasons. OM is on it's 10th primary HC since 1974. 2 10 win seasons total over that stretch with 23 <6 win seasons to go with 5 9+ win seasons. MSU has only had 3 10 win seasons in it's entire program history. Out of their 11 HC's since 1950, Only two coaches have ever had more than a single 9+ win season there, one was Mullen and the other was way back in the mid-70's. MSU is 41:8 dating back through the same rate in terms of bad to good seasons. To do the same for the hogs, going back to Holtz, we have a 12:15 ratio of <6 wins to 9+ win seasons. 4 of the 7 of our primary HC's in that time have had at least one 10+ win season. Same stat for coaches having multiple 9+ win seasons. 4 of our past 7 through Holtz.

So, what are the odds they are able to get to the same success they had before? Saban built LSU up, Miles sustained it for a while, but before then, they were not that good. Given Orgeron's history, what are the odds of him getting LSU back into prominence? What are the odds that the OC MSU hired will be another Mullen vs the long list of crappy coaches MSU has hired? Same for OM? Jimbo Fisher comes to the aggies with a resume not that dissimilar from what Bielema came to us with. High level of success at a school in a weaker conference with a lot of rumblings from the fan base who weren't all that sad to see him leave. Maybe he has just as much success with the aggies or maybe he crashes and burns.

No school accepts losing, but 5 of the 7 schools here have relatively new coaches. Aggies, MSU, and Ark all have brand new coaches. OM just made it's interim coach the permanent coach and LSU's Orgeron is heading into his 2nd season as the permanent HC for LSU. 

Just 8 months ago you were all BERT, all the time, insisting he just needed time.  Now this new Dude with all those players that needed more time have gotten all grown up and should be PRODUCING, day one.   Now they are better than the 2013 group.  Nice crystal ball.

No I wasn't. 8 months ago I was on here saying that 7-5 would get Bret fired and even 8-4 might not be good enough. I had hope for the 2017 team, particularly on offense. Austin Allen was ranked as the 8th best returning player in all the SEC and played exceptionally in his first year, poised to improve on that in his second year. We had an experienced OL, highly rated receivers, and some young defenders who looked to be studly on defense though I was very vocal about not being sold on the switch to the 3-4.

Take a look at this thread http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=657751.msg11395987#msg11395987

Also, I have not said that we should be producing day one. I say we have the talent to win 9 games in year one without a doubt. I've also mentioned that while the talent is absolutely there, it's entirely possible the mental funk could take more than a year to pull out of and maybe despite the talent on the roster, maybe Morris can win games for us but struggles to adapt to the players on the roster and needs a specific type of player to win thus not doing well at first and improving in time.

Yes, this group is better than the 2013 group by all objective measures. There's a thread breaking that down in detail. Only way anybody can argue otherwise is if they try and use accomplishments made by players after the fact and compare the players now that haven't had time to go on and make an impact.

[steveaustin69]

Our offense did struggle last year, particularly in scoring td's. Morris is also responsible for the defensive playcalls. So, even if Morris doesn't know a boundary corner from a field corner (which I'm sure he does), he still gets credit for better or worse for the defense because that is who he hired.

Where do you see anything saying that everyone in the west is going to be significantly down? Heck, where do you see anything saying that any individual team in the SEC west is going to significantly down? I can promise you it isn't in any of my posts. There is a very strong possibility that many SEC teams are going to be down for the next couple of years. There are a lot of new coaches and more often than not, a new hire isn't going to work out. However, for all anybody knows, each of the coaches could all be Nick Sabans. Which is something I mentioned in the above post. The west could be resurgent in power with half the division being serious contenders for the playoff year in and year out or it could be greatly dwindled with half the division being lucky just to be bowl eligible. I certainly don't know which way it will lead. Anybody who says they'd bet their life on any given outcome is either suicidal or a fool. Re-reading my post, there was one line where I said LSU will be worse if they stick with Orgeron, but in the next sentence, LSU going from a 9-11 win team down to a 7-9 win team was back to being a conditional rather than a given.

Sounds like you need help with reading comprehension. And yes, an 8-4 record could be entirely not enough to save his job if he is failing in other areas and I'm not talking about a motorcycle accident. If the product on the field has demonstrably regressed in each of his three seasons with no signs that he is going to be able to turn things around? Yeah, he could be fired. And yes, we have a team right now that could regress for three straight years and go 8-4 in 2020. At the very least, I'd hope that any coach that goes three years here and never once shows any sign of improving the team and regresses each and every year would be fired. Maybe the powers that be wouldn't do that. However, under Bielema, through the first three seasons, the team showed improvement and in the areas that didn't improve, there were demonstrable steps taken to correct for those errors. In year 4, virtually everybody expected a 7-5 type season with the major losses that the roster was taking. Those last two losses were unforgiveable, but we were well in position to win 9 games that year and there was reason to believe the cause of those breakdowns were being addressed. However, in year 5, a 7-5 season would have gotten Bielema fired with Long stating as much and likely 8-4. That was a 9+ win season or bust and it busted hard. I bring that up as a sort of rubric for Morris. Bielema did plenty of things wrong but did several things right as well. For Morris to show demonstrable regression each of those three years, he'd have to show even less than Bielema did and yes, I think he can show less than Bielema and it still be possible to go 8-4. The odds of my scenario ever happening are quite low. However, we didn't also didn't hire Morris to just win 7-8 games every season. So, yeah, he's going to have to win more than 7-8 games here to keep his job. Given that he has the roster to win now, I'd be disappointed if 5 years were given to prove anything. If he can't get us to 9+ wins in the next three years, good chance we don't win many games this year in the first place. Odds of him doing well enough this year and regressing each of the next three are low.

We will not fire a coach after year three that just went 8-4. Type all you want; only makes you look slower.

Morris is gonna be calling plays for the defense? News to me.

[rtr]

We struggled mightily in all phases of the game last season.

[steveaustin69]

No they aren't, but how many coaches end up working out? In the past three primary head coaches for the aggies, only one has had a 10+ win season and even then, only for one year with a heisman trophy qb before sinking back down. In that stretch, they've had 3 <6 win seasons to go along with 4 9+ win seasons. Before Saban, LSU had 6 primary HC's spanning 30 years, only two total 10+ win seasons. To go with the same rubric, they'd had 13 <6 win seasons to go with 11 9+ win seasons. OM is on it's 10th primary HC since 1974. 2 10 win seasons total over that stretch with 23 <6 win seasons to go with 5 9+ win seasons. MSU has only had 3 10 win seasons in it's entire program history. Out of their 11 HC's since 1950, Only two coaches have ever had more than a single 9+ win season there, one was Mullen and the other was way back in the mid-70's. MSU is 41:8 dating back through the same rate in terms of bad to good seasons. To do the same for the hogs, going back to Holtz, we have a 12:15 ratio of <6 wins to 9+ win seasons. 4 of the 7 of our primary HC's in that time have had at least one 10+ win season. Same stat for coaches having multiple 9+ win seasons. 4 of our past 7 through Holtz.

So, what are the odds they are able to get to the same success they had before? Saban built LSU up, Miles sustained it for a while, but before then, they were not that good. Given Orgeron's history, what are the odds of him getting LSU back into prominence? What are the odds that the OC MSU hired will be another Mullen vs the long list of crappy coaches MSU has hired? Same for OM? Jimbo Fisher comes to the aggies with a resume not that dissimilar from what Bielema came to us with. High level of success at a school in a weaker conference with a lot of rumblings from the fan base who weren't all that sad to see him leave. Maybe he has just as much success with the aggies or maybe he crashes and burns.

No school accepts losing, but 5 of the 7 schools here have relatively new coaches. Aggies, MSU, and Ark all have brand new coaches. OM just made it's interim coach the permanent coach and LSU's Orgeron is heading into his 2nd season as the permanent HC for LSU. 

No I wasn't. 8 months ago I was on here saying that 7-5 would get Bret fired and even 8-4 might not be good enough. I had hope for the 2017 team, particularly on offense. Austin Allen was ranked as the 8th best returning player in all the SEC and played exceptionally in his first year, poised to improve on that in his second year. We had an experienced OL, highly rated receivers, and some young defenders who looked to be studly on defense though I was very vocal about not being sold on the switch to the 3-4.

Take a look at this thread http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=657751.msg11395987#msg11395987

Also, I have not said that we should be producing day one. I say we have the talent to win 9 games in year one without a doubt. I've also mentioned that while the talent is absolutely there, it's entirely possible the mental funk could take more than a year to pull out of and maybe despite the talent on the roster, maybe Morris can win games for us but struggles to adapt to the players on the roster and needs a specific type of player to win thus not doing well at first and improving in time.

Yes, this group is better than the 2013 group by all objective measures. There's a thread breaking that down in detail. Only way anybody can argue otherwise is if they try and use accomplishments made by players after the fact and compare the players now that haven't had time to go on and make an impact.

You lose all credibility when you compare Jimbo Fisher to Bielema. One never won a big game. One won a freaking national title.

TAMU since joining SEC: 51-27
Ole Miss same time frame: 45-31
LSU same time frame: 54-24
MSU same time frame: 49-29

They also outrecruit us in most years, but yes a coaching change is going to send them into the depths of the Vandys and Kentuckys of the world.  And before you go to "well I said it was possible they suffer a downturn." Well it's possible Arkansas wins a national title next year; doesn't make it likely.

You banking on let's say just two of them taking a downturn? Unlikely, but I'll play along. So since we're playing that game and by your hypotheticals two of these become pick ems. We lose one pick em.  And then we have Bama, Auburn and two east opponents to worry about. So we've got 3 "guaranteed" wins. We drop both Bama, Auburn and one of the east opponents. That puts us at 4-4 in conference and 8-4 in the regular season which in most years is fourth place.

[Dwillhog66]

You lose all credibility when you compare Jimbo Fisher to Bielema. One never won a big game. One won a freaking national title.

TAMU since joining SEC: 51-27
Ole Miss same time frame: 45-31
LSU same time frame: 54-24
MSU same time frame: 49-29

They also outrecruit us in most years, but yes a coaching change is going to send them into the depths of the Vandys and Kentuckys of the world.  And before you go to "well I said it was possible they suffer a downturn." Well it's possible Arkansas wins a national title next year; doesn't make it likely.

You banking on let's say just two of them taking a downturn? Unlikely, but I'll play along. So since we're playing that game and by your hypotheticals two of these become pick ems. We lose one pick em.  And then we have Bama, Auburn and two east opponents to worry about. So we've got 3 "guaranteed" wins. We drop both Bama, Auburn and one of the east opponents. That puts us at 4-4 in conference and 8-4 in the regular season which in most years is fourth place.

Benny is just bringing some possibilities into the forum to get some football talk going. Relax a bit. Regardless of whether his hypothesis is correct or not, try not derailing the thread into an argument. It's so refreshing to read threads that are about the team we love to follow that bring insights of what we potentially have and could have.

[bennyl08]

We will not fire a coach after year three that just went 8-4. Type all you want; only makes you look slower.

Morris is gonna be calling plays for the defense? News to me.

Whether we will or won't doesn't matter. Again, read the words being typed. However, it is definitely possible.

Yes, he is. By virtue of being the head coach, Morris is responsible for each and every playcall made.

[jgphillips3]

If you take our reasonably solid talent base and add solid coaching, our expected record in each of the next three years should be a low of 7-5 if something goes wrong (lots of injuries, bad breaks, etc) and a high of 9-3.  We have the talent capable of generating those records because there are really only 3 teams each of those years that are substantially more talented.  All the remainder are either less talented or comparable.

8-4 or 9-3 will be good seasons that leave most fans happy.  We'll likely never recruit at the level of Alabama (or Georgia this year).  In fact, for pretty much every school, every year, 9-3 is a good record.  Only those rare, dominant teams like Alabama and recently Clemson can expect yearly double digit win totals.  Now, if Morris is going to lead us beyond the 8-4/9-3 type seasons, he will have to move recruiting up somewhat. 

We don't have to suddenly be the #1 class but rankings between #10 - #20 would matter greatly.  In essence, we would be banking 2 to 4 more 4 star players a year.  On a one year time scale, that doesn't seem like much but, over four years, if he banks another 8-16 4 star players, then you have the kind of quality depth needed to compete for a title.

Currently, while certain position groups are over or under represented, we basically have enough 4 star and 5 star players to filed a starting 11 on each side of the ball plus a couple of reserves on each side.  Now, if you add another 8-16 4 star players, then you are getting close to having not just an entire starting lineup of 4 star talent but a nearly full 2 deep of 4 star talent.  That would allow you to be competitive every year and have a legitimate shot at a title.  I think Morris can do this and if he does, life as a Razorback fan will be a lot more fun.

[bennyl08]

You lose all credibility when you compare Jimbo Fisher to Bielema. One never won a big game. One won a freaking national title.

I'd say winning a power 5 conference championship game is winning a big game. Winning 3 in a row is pretty big too.

Both are HC's with big wins under their belt, but who have only ever been a HC at a single school, and that was a school that was already successful before they became the HC. Both HC's had a lot of grumbling with the fan base despite the success the coach had. Both moved to the SEC-W.

TAMU since joining SEC: 51-27
Ole Miss same time frame: 45-31
LSU same time frame: 54-24
MSU same time frame: 49-29

They also outrecruit us in most years, but yes a coaching change is going to send them into the depths of the Vandys and Kentuckys of the world.  And before you go to "well I said it was possible they suffer a downturn." Well it's possible Arkansas wins a national title next year; doesn't make it likely.

You banking on let's say just two of them taking a downturn? Unlikely, but I'll play along. So since we're playing that game and by your hypotheticals two of these become pick ems. We lose one pick em.  And then we have Bama, Auburn and two east opponents to worry about. So we've got 3 "guaranteed" wins. We drop both Bama, Auburn and one of the east opponents. That puts us at 4-4 in conference and 8-4 in the regular season which in most years is fourth place.

Oh my god...

The entire premise of your argument is to make a strawman and complaining that I'm able to call you out on that? Wow.

Also, nice cherry picking of the data. Comparing only the best coaches in the past 50 years of those programs.

I'm confused at the point of your last paragraph. I literally said that 8-4 was a safe pick in year three. You showing a possible scenario of how we could get there doesn't really accomplish anything.

Win-Loss record in a vacuum doesn't say anything. Take coastal carolina for example. We won that game. Is that all that mattered to you? Or was the manner in which we won that game matter? We went 2-6 in conference play in 2012 and 2014.

In 2012, our 2 wins were against teams that both went 0-8 in conference play. In 2014, our 2 wins were against teams that went 9-7 in conference play. Same record to you though and how we got there doesn't matter. That we were -12 in scoring differential in 2014 in conference play vs -100 in scoring differential in 2012 is irrelevant. Only thing that matters is the win-loss record. 2012 was just as good a year as 2014 for the razorbacks as far as conference play goes.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

That insinuates our offense struggled last year.

Your mind is a strange place; Arkansas has never consistently finished above .500 in conference in the SEC. Now everyone in the West is going to be significantly down and we get to beat up on them?  Hell, even if the teams you mentioned suffer a bit from a coaching change/lack of coaching talent they have still been beating us on the recruiting trail.  This thought process that any game in the SEC is a gimme will never cease to boggle my mind.

There's not a chance in hell we fire a coach in year 3 off an 8-4 season. You need help.

You are so smart, but surprise me with you star gazing... Mark this post if you must, but we will win and win big without breaking a top 5 recruiting class ever. Hell..! In order for us to have a top 5 class we will have to win a natty first. Trust me, the recruiting and preseason rankings are a guess at best...

[bennyl08]

If you take our reasonably solid talent base and add solid coaching, our expected record in each of the next three years should be a low of 7-5 if something goes wrong (lots of injuries, bad breaks, etc) and a high of 9-3.  We have the talent capable of generating those records because there are really only 3 teams each of those years that are substantially more talented.  All the remainder are either less talented or comparable.

8-4 or 9-3 will be good seasons that leave most fans happy.  We'll likely never recruit at the level of Alabama (or Georgia this year).  In fact, for pretty much every school, every year, 9-3 is a good record.  Only those rare, dominant teams like Alabama and recently Clemson can expect yearly double digit win totals.  Now, if Morris is going to lead us beyond the 8-4/9-3 type seasons, he will have to move recruiting up somewhat. 

We don't have to suddenly be the #1 class but rankings between #10 - #20 would matter greatly.  In essence, we would be banking 2 to 4 more 4 star players a year.  On a one year time scale, that doesn't seem like much but, over four years, if he banks another 8-16 4 star players, then you have the kind of quality depth needed to compete for a title.

Currently, while certain position groups are over or under represented, we basically have enough 4 star and 5 star players to filed a starting 11 on each side of the ball plus a couple of reserves on each side.  Now, if you add another 8-16 4 star players, then you are getting close to having not just an entire starting lineup of 4 star talent but a nearly full 2 deep of 4 star talent.  That would allow you to be competitive every year and have a legitimate shot at a title.  I think Morris can do this and if he does, life as a Razorback fan will be a lot more fun.

I think we can do better than a high of 9-3 in three years time and I don't think we'll need to have recruiting change significantly from where we've been.

Each person will have a different idea of an expectation, but for me, a long term coach here should be able to do more than win 6-9 games a year. I think at equilibrium, at average year should be around 8-4, with a below average year being 7-5, and 6-6 being noticeably down. A 5-7 season once in a blue moon when the stars align against you wouldn't be an inst-fire. On the other side, 9-3 would be a good year, with 10-2 or better being a great year.

How often should these things happen? Over a 5 year period at equilibrium, say 1 10+ win season, 2 8-9 win seasons, 1 7-8 win season and one 6-7 win season. For example, the minimum range on that would yield a 6,7,8,8, and 10 win total for an average of 7.8 wins with the max being 7,8,9,9, and 12 for an average of 9 wins with hopefully most subsets averaging at least a bit above 8.

While our average has definitely been in the 7-8 win range, nobody wants an average program. You strive to be better. It's important to keep your expectations in check so that you don't fire somebody who does very well but anything less than 12 wins is considered a disappointment type of thing. The exception to something like that would be if you've been at the cusp for so long that you think you can sustain that and need to get over than hump, see UGA. Rich had them at 9-11 wins most years but couldn't get them over that hump to the national championship. So, they took the risk and moved on from him. So far it appears to be paying off in that they've at least appeared in one now.

[jgphillips3]

I agree that we can do better than 9-3.  However, I'm just going with the odds.  New coach, new system, talented opponents...odds are we finish 7-5 or 8-4 next year and then have two 8-4 or 9-3 type seasons to follow.  It usually takes three years to truly get a system entrenched.  I believe Morris is going to do great here and I'm hoping he exceeds my expectations but until he's coached his first game, im going to temper them.  I believe with Morris that 7 wins will be our bad/rebuilding years in the future.  8 or 9 wins will be the norm and at some point we'll hit a several year stretch that rivals or exceeds Petrino's two year stretch.  I just hate to saddle him with that right out of the gate as an expectation.

[steveaustin69]

I think we can do better than a high of 9-3 in three years time and I don't think we'll need to have recruiting change significantly from where we've been.

Each person will have a different idea of an expectation, but for me, a long term coach here should be able to do more than win 6-9 games a year. I think at equilibrium, at average year should be around 8-4, with a below average year being 7-5, and 6-6 being noticeably down. A 5-7 season once in a blue moon when the stars align against you wouldn't be an inst-fire. On the other side, 9-3 would be a good year, with 10-2 or better being a great year.

How often should these things happen? Over a 5 year period at equilibrium, say 1 10+ win season, 2 8-9 win seasons, 1 7-8 win season and one 6-7 win season. For example, the minimum range on that would yield a 6,7,8,8, and 10 win total for an average of 7.8 wins with the max being 7,8,9,9, and 12 for an average of 9 wins with hopefully most subsets averaging at least a bit above 8.

While our average has definitely been in the 7-8 win range, nobody wants an average program. You strive to be better. It's important to keep your expectations in check so that you don't fire somebody who does very well but anything less than 12 wins is considered a disappointment type of thing. The exception to something like that would be if you've been at the cusp for so long that you think you can sustain that and need to get over than hump, see UGA. Rich had them at 9-11 wins most years but couldn't get them over that hump to the national championship. So, they took the risk and moved on from him. So far it appears to be paying off in that they've at least appeared in one now.

We've averaged 6.3 regular season wins a year in the SEC. We average 3.3 conference wins a year. By your definitions above we have finished below average, noticeably down or worse in 18 of 26 years. Even if I narrow this down to only Nutt and Petrino years the trend holds. By your definitions our regular season finish was below average, noticeably down or worse in 7 of 14 seasons under Nutt and Petrino.

But our average should now be 8-4, right? 

I'd heed your own advice about expectations.

[bennyl08]

We've averaged 6.3 regular season wins a year in the SEC. We average 3.3 conference wins a year. By your definitions above we have finished below average, noticeably down or worse in 18 of 26 years. Even if I narrow this down to only Nutt and Petrino years the trend holds. By your definitions our regular season finish was below average, noticeably down or worse in 7 of 14 seasons under Nutt and Petrino.

But our average should now be 8-4, right? 

I'd heed your own advice about expectations.

We have an overall 57% win completion as a program, which over a 12 game season is 7-5. That is our program average.

I am taking my own advice which explicitly states that we should aim to be more than average. Again, if you would read more you would know that. Heck, it's literally the sentence right before you bolded. So...

Thus, long term, I'd want a coach that averages 8-4 at equilibrium which is above average but not unrealistically so IMO.

[steveaustin69]

We have an overall 57% win completion as a program, which over a 12 game season is 7-5. That is our program average.

I am taking my own advice which explicitly states that we should aim to be more than average. Again, if you would read more you would know that. Heck, it's literally the sentence right before you bolded. So...

Thus, long term, I'd want a coach that averages 8-4 at equilibrium which is above average but not unrealistically so IMO.

Our SEC average is 6.3 wins a season; we don't get to play Rice every year.  A coach after year 3 who won two more games than our quarter century average is not getting fired.

[Maximus Tusk]

Our roster is in way better shape now than it was in 2008 or 2013. We can be winning from day 1. The only thing that would keep us from doing so is if our coaching staff fails us or the physically talented players we have are in too deep of a mental rut to come out of in 6 months.

Not sure what our offense last year has to do with anything. Could you elaborate on your reasoning for posting that as I'm apparently not able to read between your lines there.

If he goes 7-5 this year, 8-4 next year, and 8-4 again in 2020 with zero signs of progress being made and perhaps even signs of regression with the wins getting tighter and the losses bigger, you think that there's a zero chance of him being let go with an 8-4 record in year 3? Especially if you combine the relative strength of the schedule, MSU could be way down, OM will likely be way worse, LSU if they stick with Orgeron will be worse. The two Miss schools could be teams that struggle to be bowl eligible over the next 3 years under Morris, LSU could sink down to mediocre levels. If we're barely beating them in year 3 while losing by 3+ possessions to Auburn, Bama, Aggies, and one of the east teams, say losing badly to Mizz as well and barely beating vandy or kentucky, then yeah, he could realistically be fired in year 3. OTOH, if he's beating those schools by an increasing margin and is decreasing the margin of loss to the schools like Bama and in year 3, we are only 8-4 but on pace and showing improvement from year to year, then yeah, slim chance he'd be fired for that. Or, if say MSU's coach turns out to be a real hit for them and Jimbo has the aggies bumping up to the playoff level team such that the schedule is even harder for Morris than under Bielema, then 8-4 probably wouldn't get him fired there either.

8-4 and 4th in the west in year 3 though isn't a guarantee of anything. That could be considered a great coaching job by Morris given the circumstances of facing 4 perennial top 10 teams and heisman candidates while suffering key injuries for us. Or, it could be a stagnant program that is slowly regressing and trending the wrong way with 3 years of no progress, with the 8 wins coming against a total of 1-2 bowl eligible teams to the point where he gets fired.

Lot of "if's" in there...

[Boss Hog in the Arkansas]

You're delusional, man. Hogville's god himself (Petrino) won five games his first year.

Offense was the least of our worries last year.

We are not letting Morris go if he goes 8-4 in year 3 even if he gets blown out a few times.

What in the world are you smoking?

Didn't petrino step into a warm smolder (couple steps away from dumpster fire)? He inherited a couple good linemen but everything else on the roster screamed average at best, ESPECIALLY QB, the most important position on the field

[steveaustin69]

Didn't petrino step into a warm smolder (couple steps away from dumpster fire)? He inherited a couple good linemen but everything else on the roster screamed average at best, ESPECIALLY QB, the most important position on the field

Ha. Weren't we considered a dumpster fire three months ago? What changed? Did our defense suddenly become studs? Is our O line suddenly world beaters?

[hawginbigd1]

Our offense did struggle last year, particularly in scoring td's. Morris is also responsible for the defensive playcalls. So, even if Morris doesn't know a boundary corner from a field corner (which I'm sure he does), he still gets credit for better or worse for the defense because that is who he hired.

Where do you see anything saying that everyone in the west is going to be significantly down? Heck, where do you see anything saying that any individual team in the SEC west is going to significantly down? I can promise you it isn't in any of my posts. There is a very strong possibility that many SEC teams are going to be down for the next couple of years. There are a lot of new coaches and more often than not, a new hire isn't going to work out. However, for all anybody knows, each of the coaches could all be Nick Sabans. Which is something I mentioned in the above post. The west could be resurgent in power with half the division being serious contenders for the playoff year in and year out or it could be greatly dwindled with half the division being lucky just to be bowl eligible. I certainly don't know which way it will lead. Anybody who says they'd bet their life on any given outcome is either suicidal or a fool. Re-reading my post, there was one line where I said LSU will be worse if they stick with Orgeron, but in the next sentence, LSU going from a 9-11 win team down to a 7-9 win team was back to being a conditional rather than a given.

Sounds like you need help with reading comprehension. And yes, an 8-4 record could be entirely not enough to save his job if he is failing in other areas and I'm not talking about a motorcycle accident. If the product on the field has demonstrably regressed in each of his three seasons with no signs that he is going to be able to turn things around? Yeah, he could be fired. And yes, we have a team right now that could regress for three straight years and go 8-4 in 2020. At the very least, I'd hope that any coach that goes three years here and never once shows any sign of improving the team and regresses each and every year would be fired. Maybe the powers that be wouldn't do that. However, under Bielema, through the first three seasons, the team showed improvement and in the areas that didn't improve, there were demonstrable steps taken to correct for those errors. In year 4, virtually everybody expected a 7-5 type season with the major losses that the roster was taking. Those last two losses were unforgiveable, but we were well in position to win 9 games that year and there was reason to believe the cause of those breakdowns were being addressed. However, in year 5, a 7-5 season would have gotten Bielema fired with Long stating as much and likely 8-4. That was a 9+ win season or bust and it busted hard. I bring that up as a sort of rubric for Morris. Bielema did plenty of things wrong but did several things right as well. For Morris to show demonstrable regression each of those three years, he'd have to show even less than Bielema did and yes, I think he can show less than Bielema and it still be possible to go 8-4. The odds of my scenario ever happening are quite low. However, we didn't also didn't hire Morris to just win 7-8 games every season. So, yeah, he's going to have to win more than 7-8 games here to keep his job. Given that he has the roster to win now, I'd be disappointed if 5 years were given to prove anything. If he can't get us to 9+ wins in the next three years, good chance we don't win many games this year in the first place. Odds of him doing well enough this year and regressing each of the next three are low.

Benny good stuff, don't worry about the naysayers on here, there are 2 agendas driving these people:
1. Bielema was horrible in all things, so the talented roster we now have gives credence to the idea he did well at some stuff, which they can't accept!
2. Stars and rankings are the only thing that matters in recruiting! You must have a top rated class to compete at the top, even though several teams have shown it can be done with the ratings we typically have.

[rzrbaxfan]

You're delusional, man. Hogville's god himself (Petrino) won five games his first year.

Offense was the least of our worries last year.

We are not letting Morris go if he goes 8-4 in year 3 even if he gets blown out a few times.

What in the world are you smoking?

While I'd agree that our defense put more gray hairs on my head than the offense, our offense was not very good at times last year....

TCU:  2 trips inside TCU's 30 yielded 0 points.  5 of first 7 drives were 3 and outs.

Auburn: 8 first half possessions: 6 punts (4 were 3 and out), 2 FGs.  First 2 possessions of 2nd half were 3 and outs before we quit.

MSU: 6 first half possessions: 1 td, 4 punts (3 were 3 and out), 1 failed 4th down.  5 possessions in 2nd half: 1 td, 1 fumble, 2 punts, 1 downs.

LSU: 6 first half possessions: 1 td, 1 fumble, 4 punts (2 were 3 and out).  5 second half possessions: 1 td, 1 fg, 2 punts, 1 downs.

South Carolina: (before they scored 14 points on defense in 2 consecutive drives in the 3rd and we quit)...7 possessions: 1 td, 1 fg, 1 fumble, 4 punts (3 were 3 and outs)

We moved the ball pretty well against A&M, Mizzou, and Ole Miss, but only 1 was a win and we still had 9 3 and outs combined in those games.  For the sake of my sanity, I excluded Alabama from my research.